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Cyclones with Tropical Characteristics Over the Northeastern Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea: Analysis in Present Climate and Future Projections

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Cyclones with Tropical Characteristics Over the Northeastern Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea: Analysis in Present Climate and Future Projections UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS FÍSICAS Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica TESIS DOCTORAL Cyclones with tropical characteristics over the northeastern Atlantic and Mediterranean sea: analysis in present climate and future projections Ciclones con características tropicales sobre el Atlántico nordeste y el Mediterráneo: análisis en clima presente y proyecciones de futuro MEMORIA PARA OPTAR AL GRADO DE DOCTOR PRESENTADA POR Juan Jesús González Alemán Directores Miguel Ángel Gaertner Ruiz-Valdepeñas Clemente Gallardo Andrés Madrid 2019 © Juan Jesús González Alemán, 2018 UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS FÍSICAS Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica Cyclones with tropical characteristics over the northeastern Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea: Analysis in present climate and future projections Ciclones con características tropicales sobre el Atlántico Nordeste y el Mediterráneo: Análisis en clima presente y proyecciones de futuro Doctoral Thesis Juan Jesús González Alemán UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS FÍSICAS Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica TESIS DOCTORAL Cyclones with tropical characteristics over the northeastern Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea: Analysis in present climate and future projections (Ciclones con características tropicales sobre el Atlántico Nordeste y el Mediterráneo: Análisis en clima presente y proyecciones de futuro) MEMORIA PARA OPTAR AL GRADO DE DOCTOR CON MENCIÓN INTERNACIONAL PRESENTADA POR Juan Jesús González Alemán Directores Dr. Miguel Ángel Gaertner Ruiz-Valdepeñas Dr. Clemente Gallardo Andrés Madrid, 2018 Juan Jesús González Alemán: Cyclones with tropical characteristics over the northeastern Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea: Analysis in present climate and future projections, PhD thesis, @March, 2018. Madrid (Spain). A todas las personas que me han apoyado durante todos estos años, en especial a mi familia. Academic Acknowledgement First and foremost, I would like to thank my PhD supervisors, Miguel Ángel Gaertner for his encouragement, advice, inspiration and support during the conduct of this work, and Clemente Gallardo. I would also like to thank Jenni Evans for acting as a supervisor in part of the work of this thesis and her inspiration and support. I am undoubtedly grateful to Francisco Valero for letting me start researching on the topic of this thesis. His encouragement has been really appreciated. Many thanks also to the Environmental Sciences Institute at the University of Castilla-La Mancha and the Complutense University of Madrid for the support received during the PhD period. Especially to Enrique Sánchez for his research and technical support. I am also grateful to the Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences at the Pennsylvania State University for hosting my research stays. Thanks also to the collaborators involved in the publications of this thesis. I want to express my gratitude to the members of the Modelling for the Environment and Climate (MOMAC) research group for their support during the development of this work. Also appreciated the funding availability for conferences and training courses. Thanks also to the members of the research group Meteorology, Climate Applications and Modelling (MCAM; Marisa, Lara) at the Complutense University of Madrid. Also thanks to Jenni’s tropical group at Penn State, especially Alex Kowaleski for inspiring debates. Finally, I want to thank the two external reviewers of this thesis, Emmanouil Flaounas and Lluis Fitta. Agradecimientos Gracias a mis padres, Juan Jesús y Pili, por el apoyo y la educación que me habéis dado, y por todo vuestro esfuerzo para que haya podido llegar hasta aquí. Sin ustedes, indudablemente esto no podría haber sido posible. Gracias a mis hermanos y familiares cercanos por vuestro apoyo incondicional durante todo este tiempo. Imposible olvidarme de mis queridas sobrinas, Xenia, Marieta y Xylia, que me han alegrado muchos días durante este periodo y que espero les entre la curiosidad por leer esta tesis cuando sean mayores. Gracias también a Claudia y Kike por todo vuestro apoyo durante el transcurso de esta tesis. Y por supuesto a todos mis amigos, tanto de Telde como de Madrid, ya que sin ellos no podría haber desconectado durante el transcurso de la tesis, y por tanto ser capaz de terminarla. Funding Information This thesis has been supported by grant BES-2014-067905 (doctoral training contract) by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad and European Social fund through the research projects CGL2013-47261-R funded by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad and by the European Regional Development Fund. Two short-term stays at the Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science (The Pennsylvania State University, USA) were funded by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, under Grant EEBB-I-16-10596 and EEBB-I-17-11997. The author thanks these institutions. Outline Resumen ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 6 Preface .......................................................................................................................................... 9 I. State of Knowledge ................................................................................................................. 17 1. Theory of cyclones .............................................................................................................. 17 a. Thermal and dynamical structure ................................................................................. 17 b. Conceptual models of theoretical cyclones ................................................................... 22 c. Cyclogenesis .................................................................................................................... 29 d. Hybrid cyclones ............................................................................................................... 40 2. Cyclone transitions ............................................................................................................. 45 a. Extratropical transitions ................................................................................................. 46 b. Tropical transitions ......................................................................................................... 48 3. Effects of climate change on cyclones ............................................................................... 52 a. Effects on extratropical cyclones ................................................................................... 52 b. Effects on tropical cyclones ............................................................................................ 56 II. Objectives ............................................................................................................................... 61 III. Data ........................................................................................................................................ 63 1. Reanalysis and observations .............................................................................................. 63 a. Reanalysis data ............................................................................................................... 63 b. Observations ................................................................................................................... 64 2. Model simulations .............................................................................................................. 65 a. CORDEX initiative ........................................................................................................... 65 b. ESCENA project ............................................................................................................... 66 c. Ensemble prediction system from ECMWF ................................................................... 67 IV. Methodology ......................................................................................................................... 68 1. Data processing .................................................................................................................. 68 a. Calculation of standard deviation .................................................................................. 68 b. Calculation of anomalies ................................................................................................ 68 c. Calculation of composites .............................................................................................. 68 d. Path clustering ................................................................................................................ 69 2. Hypothesis testing .............................................................................................................. 70 a. Student’s t-test ............................................................................................................... 71 b. Mann-Whitney U test ..................................................................................................... 72 3. Dynamical diagnostics ........................................................................................................ 72 a. Cyclone identification and tracking algorithm .............................................................
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