Explosive Cyclogenesis: a Global Climatology Comparing Multiple Reanalyses
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Predictability of Explosive Cyclogenesis Over the Northwestern Pacific Region Using Ensemble Reanalysis
NOVEMBER 2013 K U W A N O - Y O S H I D A A N D E N O M O T O 3769 Predictability of Explosive Cyclogenesis over the Northwestern Pacific Region Using Ensemble Reanalysis AKIRA KUWANO-YOSHIDA Earth Simulator Center, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan TAKESHI ENOMOTO Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan (Manuscript received 1 June 2012, in final form 24 May 2013) ABSTRACT The predictability of explosive cyclones over the northwestern Pacific region is investigated using an en- semble reanalysis dataset. Explosive cyclones are categorized into two types according to whether the region of the most rapid development is in the Sea of Okhotsk or Sea of Japan (OJ) or in the northwestern Pacific Ocean (PO). Cyclone-relative composite analyses are performed for analysis increments (the differences between the analysis and the 6-h forecast) and ensemble spreads (the standard deviations of ensemble members of the analysis or first guess) at the time of the maximum deepening rate. The increment composite shows that the OJ explosive cyclone center is forecast too far north compared to the analyzed center, whereas the PO explosive cyclone is forecast shallower than the analyzed center. To understand the cause of these biases, a diagnosis of the increment using the Zwack–Okossi (Z-O) development equation is conducted. The results suggest that the increment characteristics of both the OJ and PO explosive cyclones are associated with the most important cyclone development mechanisms. The OJ explosive cyclone forecast error is related to a deeper upper trough, whereas the PO explosive cyclone error is related to weaker latent heat release in the model. -
Climate Change Solutions for Australia the Australian Climate Group First Published in June 2004 by WWF Australia
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Climate Change Solutions for Australia The Australian Climate Group First published in June 2004 by WWF Australia © WWF Australia 2004. All Rights Reserved. ISBN: 1875 94169X Authors: Tony Coleman Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg Professor David Karoly Professor Ian Lowe Professor Tony McMichael Dr Chris Mitchell Dr Graeme Pearman Dr Peter Scaife Anna Reynolds The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of WWF. WWF Australia GPO Box 528 Sydney NSW Australia Tel: +612 9281 5515 Fax: +612 9281 1060 www.wwf.org.au For copies of this report or a full list of WWF Australia publications on a wide range of conservation issues, please contact us on [email protected] or call 1800 032 551. Cover image: Shock and Awe © Andrew Pade (www.andrewpade.com). Printed on Monza Satin recycled. Contents The Australian Climate Group 04 Climate change - solutions for Australia The Australian Climate Group was convened in late 2003 by WWF Australia and the Insurance Australia Group (IAG) in response to the increasing need for action on climate change in Australia. 06 Summary 08 Act now to lower the risks 10 A way forward for Australia 16 Earth is overheating Tony Coleman Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg Professor David Karoly Insurance Australia Group University of Queensland University of Oklahoma 22 Very small changes in the global temperature have very large impacts 30 Background information on the group 34 References Professor Ian Lowe Professor Tony McMichael Dr Chris Mitchell Griffith University Australian National Cooperative Research University Centre for Greenhouse Accounting Dr Graeme Pearman Dr Peter Scaife Anna Reynolds CSIRO Atmospheric University of Newcastle WWF Australia Research Climate Change – Solutions for Australia 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Introduction There are moments in time when global threats arise, and when action is imperative. -
Let Me Just Add That While the Piece in Newsweek Is Extremely Annoying
From: Michael Oppenheimer To: Eric Steig; Stephen H Schneider Cc: Gabi Hegerl; Mark B Boslough; [email protected]; Thomas Crowley; Dr. Krishna AchutaRao; Myles Allen; Natalia Andronova; Tim C Atkinson; Rick Anthes; Caspar Ammann; David C. Bader; Tim Barnett; Eric Barron; Graham" "Bench; Pat Berge; George Boer; Celine J. W. Bonfils; James A." "Bono; James Boyle; Ray Bradley; Robin Bravender; Keith Briffa; Wolfgang Brueggemann; Lisa Butler; Ken Caldeira; Peter Caldwell; Dan Cayan; Peter U. Clark; Amy Clement; Nancy Cole; William Collins; Tina Conrad; Curtis Covey; birte dar; Davies Trevor Prof; Jay Davis; Tomas Diaz De La Rubia; Andrew Dessler; Michael" "Dettinger; Phil Duffy; Paul J." "Ehlenbach; Kerry Emanuel; James Estes; Veronika" "Eyring; David Fahey; Chris Field; Peter Foukal; Melissa Free; Julio Friedmann; Bill Fulkerson; Inez Fung; Jeff Garberson; PETER GENT; Nathan Gillett; peter gleckler; Bill Goldstein; Hal Graboske; Tom Guilderson; Leopold Haimberger; Alex Hall; James Hansen; harvey; Klaus Hasselmann; Susan Joy Hassol; Isaac Held; Bob Hirschfeld; Jeremy Hobbs; Dr. Elisabeth A. Holland; Greg Holland; Brian Hoskins; mhughes; James Hurrell; Ken Jackson; c jakob; Gardar Johannesson; Philip D. Jones; Helen Kang; Thomas R Karl; David Karoly; Jeffrey Kiehl; Steve Klein; Knutti Reto; John Lanzante; [email protected]; Ron Lehman; John lewis; Steven A. "Lloyd (GSFC-610.2)[R S INFORMATION SYSTEMS INC]"; Jane Long; Janice Lough; mann; [email protected]; Linda Mearns; carl mears; Jerry Meehl; Jerry Melillo; George Miller; Norman Miller; Art Mirin; John FB" "Mitchell; Phil Mote; Neville Nicholls; Gerald R. North; Astrid E.J. Ogilvie; Stephanie Ohshita; Tim Osborn; Stu" "Ostro; j palutikof; Joyce Penner; Thomas C Peterson; Tom Phillips; David Pierce; [email protected]; V. -
Prep Publi Catio on Cop Py
Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change PREPUBLICATION COPY Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution Board on Atmospheric Sciencees and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies This prepublication version of Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change has been provided to the public to facilitate timely access to the report. Although the substance of the report is final, editorial changes may be made throughout the text and citations will be checked prior to publication. The final report will be available through the National Academies Press in spring 2016. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This study was supported by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation under contract number 2015- 63077, the Heising-Simons Foundation under contract number 2015-095, the Litterman Family Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract number NNX15AW55G, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract number EE- 133E-15-SE-1748, and the U.S. Department of Energy under contract number DE-SC0014256, with additional support from the National Academy of Sciences’ Arthur L. Day Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: International Standard Book Number-10: Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/21852 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. -
The Effects of Diabatic Heating on Upper
THE EFFECTS OF DIABATIC HEATING ON UPPER- TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLOGENESIS by Ross A. Lazear A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science (Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences) at the UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN - MADISON 2007 i Abstract The role of diabatic heating in the development and maintenance of persistent, upper- tropospheric, large-scale anticyclonic anomalies in the subtropics (subtropical gyres) and middle latitudes (blocking highs) is investigated from the perspective of potential vorticity (PV) non-conservation. The low PV within blocking anticyclones is related to condensational heating within strengthening upstream synoptic-scale systems. Additionally, the associated convective outflow from tropical cyclones (TCs) is shown to build upper- tropospheric, subtropical anticyclones. Not only do both of these large-scale flow phenomena have an impact on the structure and dynamics of neighboring weather systems, and consequently the day-to-day weather, the very persistence of these anticyclones means that they have a profound influence on the seasonal climate of the regions in which they exist. A blocking index based on the meridional reversal of potential temperature on the dynamic tropopause is used to identify cases of wintertime blocking in the North Atlantic from 2000-2007. Two specific cases of blocking are analyzed, one event from February 1983, and another identified using the index, from January 2007. Parallel numerical simulations of these blocking events, differing only in one simulation’s neglect of the effects of latent heating of condensation (a “fake dry” run), illustrate the importance of latent heating in the amplification and wave-breaking of both blocking events. -
Climate Change Solutions for Australia 2008 the Australian Climate Group 2010 2015 2020 2025
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CLIMATE CHANGE SOLUTIONS FOR AUSTRALIA 2008 THE AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE GROUP 2010 2015 2020 2025 WWF-Australia Head Office GPO Box 528 Sydney, NSW, Australia 2001 Tel: +612 9281 5515 Fax: +612 9281 1060 wwf.org.au Published February 2008 by WWF-Australia. Any reproduction in full or in part of this publication must mention the title and credit the above-mentioned publisher as the copyright owner. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of WWF. ISBN: 1921031 26 3 Cover image: © Mark Snelson, www.marksnelson.com.au Design: Three Blocks Left This report is printed on 9lives 80, 80% post-consumer recycled fibre and 20% Virgin FSC Certified Mixed source fibre. World Wide Fund for Nature ABN: 57 001 594 074 CLIMATE CHANGE: SOLUTIONS FOR AUSTRALIA 2008 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 GOVERNMENT POLICY NEEDS TO BE FLEXIBLE BECAUSE impacts MAY ARRIVE SOONER AND BE MORE SEVERE THAN PROJECTED 5 THE RISK OF DANGEROUS AND COSTLY climate CHANGE impacts HAS RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY 8 IMMEDiate GOVERNMENT ACTION IS NEEDED 13 BACKGROUND INFormation ON THE AUSTRALIAN Climate GROUP 16 REFERENCES 17 1 2010 2015 2020 2025 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • An overwhelming body of scientific evidence • Accordingly, we need to take account of this KEY MESSAGES: now clearly shows that the Earth is warming; this by stabilising emissions in the near term and warming has already impacted on biological and establishing a clear emissions reduction target for The Australian Climate Group recommends that physical systems around the world and here in 2020 so that short-and medium-term reductions the Rudd Government adopt measures to: Australia; global warming since around 1950 has will be achieved. -
Sceptical Climate Part 2: CLIMATE SCIENCE in AUSTRALIAN NEWSPAPERS
October 2013 Sceptical Climate Part 2: CLIMATE SCIENCE IN AUSTRALIAN NEWSPAPERS Professor Wendy Bacon Australian Centre for Independent Journalism Sceptical Climate Part 2: Climate Science in Australian Newspapers ISBN: 978-0-9870682-4-8 Release date: 30th October 2013 REPORT AUTHOR & DIRECTOR OF PROJECT: Professor Wendy Bacon (Australian Centre for Independent Journalism, University of Technology, Sydney) PROJECT MANAGER & RESEARCH SUPERVISOR: Arunn Jegan (Australian Centre for Independent Journalism) PROJECT & RESEARCH ADVISOR: Professor Chris Nash (Monash University) DESIGN AND WEB DEVELOPMENT Collagraph (http://collagraph.com.au) RESEARCHERS: Nicole Gooch, Katherine Cuttriss, Matthew Johnson, Rachel Sibley, Katerina Lebedev, Joel Rosenveig Holland, Federica Gasparini, Sophia Adams, Marcus Synott, Julia Wylie, Simon Phan & Emma Bacon ACIJ DIRECTOR: Associate Professor Tom Morton (Australian Centre for Independent Journalism, University of Technology, Sydney) ACIJ MANAGER: Jan McClelland (Australian Centre for Independent Journalism) THE AUSTRALIAN CENTRE FOR INDEPENDENT JOURNALISM The Sceptical Climate Report is a project by The Australian Centre for Independent Journalism, a critical voice on media politics, media policy, and the practice and theory of journalism. Follow ACIJ investigations, news and events at Investigate.org.au. This report is available for your use under a creative commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0) license, unless specifically noted. Feel free to quote, republish, backup, and move it to whatever platform works for you. Cover graphic: Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change, 1880 - 2012. Source: NASA GISS 2 Table of Contents 1. Preface . 5 2. Key Findings. 10 3. Background Issues . 28 4. Findings 4.1 Research design and methodology. 41 4.2 Quantity of climate science coverage . -
A Media Matters Seminar Series: Communicating Science in a Post-Normal World
A Media Matters seminar series: Communicating Science in a Post-Normal World Monash Climate Change Communication Research Hub in partnership with The Royal Society of Victoria present Media Matter seminar on climate science communication Communication and dialogue between science and society are important for both sides. Science informs individual and collective decisions, while social context and social needs guide the direction of scientific enquiry. But the science communication ecosystem is changing: Science is growing, and fields like genome editing, artificial intelligence or climate science are turning into “post-normal science”, fields with rapid development that initiate public debates and raise ethical issues. At the same time, the communicators of science are changing, with science journalism in decline, strategic communication expanding and digital media empowering users to engage in science communication as well. As a result, public perceptions of science have shifted, with trust in science seemingly eroding, “alternative facts” gaining in importance, and populist movements finding traction. Hear a keynote address from Professor Mike Schäfer (The University of Zurich), who will then join panellists Professor David Karoly and Dr Linden Ashcroft to explore this process, highlight the challenges and identify future directions for science communication. PANELISTS Dr. Mike S. Schäfer is Professor of Science Communication with the University of Zurich’s Department of Communications and Media Research. He is also Director of the University’s Center for Higher Education and Science Studies (CHESS) and of the AGORA commission at the Swiss National Science Foundation. His research focuses on science communication, online communication and public sphere theory, issues on which he has published widely. -
Chapter 1 NOTES
NOTES Chapter 1 1. Emphasis added, quoted from An Inconvenient Truth: A Global Warning, di- rected by David Guggenheim and released by Paramount Classics in 2006. This film was an official selection of the 2006 Sundance Film Festival and the Cannes Film Festival, and won the Academy Award in 2007 for Best Documentary. The printed companion is Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth: The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do About It (New York: Rodale, 2006). Al Gore shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for his leadership on global warming. 2. Bjorn Lomborg, e.g., emphasized the differences between Gore and the IPCC in “Ignore Gore—But Not His Nobel Friends,” The Sunday Telegraph (London) (11 November 2007), 24. On the scientific consensus in the United States, see Jane A. Leggett, Climate Change: Science and Policy Implications, CRS Report for Congress RL33849 (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, Updated 2 May 2007). On the scientific consensus in the international community, see the widely publi- cized assessments of the IPCC that are introduced below and summarized in later chapters. 3. The Framework Convention and related sources can be accessed at the Gate- way to the UN System’s Work on Climate Change, http://www.un.org/climatechange/ projects.shtml. 317 4. See the UNFCCC’s background information on the Kyoto Protocol, accessed 5 September 2007, at http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/background/items/3145.php. See also Susan R. Fletcher and Larry Parker, Climate Change: The Kyoto Protocol and International Actions, CRS Report for Congress RL 33836 (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, Updated 8 June 2007). -
The Rapid Growth and Decay of an Extratropical Cyclone Over the Central Paci®C Ocean
358 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 19 The Rapid Growth and Decay of an Extratropical Cyclone over the Central Paci®c Ocean JONATHAN E. MARTIN Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of WisconsinÐMadison, Madison, Wisconsin JASON A. OTKIN Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, Space Science and Engineering Center, University of WisconsinÐMadison, Madison, Wisconsin (Manuscript received 22 April 2003, in ®nal form 6 November 2003) ABSTRACT The life cycle of a central Paci®c cyclone, characterized by a 48-h interval of rapid ¯uctuation in its intensity, is examined. The cyclone of interest underwent a period of explosive cyclogenesis from 1200 UTC 4 November to 1200 UTC 5 November 1986, followed 12 h later by a period of unusually rapid decay. Output from a numerical simulation of this event, run using the ®fth-generation Pennsylvania State University±National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU±NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5), is used to perform a piecewise potential vorticity (PV) inversion in order to diagnose the life cycle of this unusual cyclone. The analysis reveals that the presence of lower-tropospheric frontogenetic forcing in an environment char- acterized by reduced static stability (as measured by high values of the K index) produced a burst of heavy precipitation during the development stage of the cyclone's life cycle. The associated latent heat release produced a substantial diabatic PV anomaly in the middle troposphere that was, in turn, responsible for the majority of the lower-tropospheric height falls associated with the explosive cyclogenesis. Subsequent height rises during the rapid cyclolysis stage resulted from the northward migration of the surface cyclone into a perturbation geopotential ridge associated with a negative tropopause-level PV anomaly. -
Climate of Deception? … Or First Step to Freedom?
CLIMATE OF DECEPTION? … OR FIRST STEP TO FREEDOM? Management consultant’s report on CSIRO document prepared at request of ABC-Radio’s Steve Austin Malcolm-Ieuan: Roberts. | Brisbane | Australia | February 2013 © Malcolm-Ieuan: Roberts. BE (Hons, U of QLD), MBA (Chicago) Fellow AICD, MAIM, MAusIMM, MAME (USA), MIMM (UK), Fellow ASQ (USA, Aust) Brisbane, Australia 04 1964 2379 [email protected] First published: February 4th, 2013 Latest update: March 18th, 2014 This document is part of, and intended to be read in conjunction with, all parts of and appendices to the document entitled CSIROh! Appendices are available at URL links provided electronically within the report. This document and its appendices are provided in good faith and without malice or ill will. They are part of an open and continuing public and political debate about a challenging topic of public and political interest and controversy and with serious and important adverse consequences affecting all Australians. It’s of declared interest to Steve Austin and to federal politicians. It analyses public claims made primarily by advocates in public functions funded by government using the public purse. I’ve written to many of the people whose behaviours, opinions and/or claims are discussed in this report and whose core claim is that human carbon dioxide (CO2) caused Earth’s latest modest cyclic global atmospheric warming —that ended in 1998. Most have responded. All have failed to provide empirical scientific evidence and logical scientific reasoning for the basis of their core claim. All seemed reluctant to address my questions adequately. They failed to meet my reasonable need for integrity, reassurance and understanding. -
Utilising Palaeoclimate Data in Water Resource Planning: Recent Work and Proposed ARC Linkage Project
Utilising palaeoclimate data in water resource planning: recent work and proposed ARC Linkage Project Ben Henley1, Joëlle Gergis1, David Karoly1 School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia Overview 1. Recent work in using multi-proxy palaeoclimatology understanding hydrological variability: regional rainfall and streamflow reconstructions in South-eastern Australia, extension of instrumental data using historical records (Gergis, Gallant, Ashcroft, Karoly) 2. Overview of Proposed ARC Linkage Project 2015: “Megadrought likelihood and its water resource impacts in Australia” (incorporating palaeoclimate and climate model data into water supply planning) 3. Understanding decadal variability: tracking and reconstructing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (Henley, Gergis, Karoly) Motivating Factors 1. Millennium drought 2. Growing population 3. Short observed records 4. Highly variable and persistent climate 5. Vulnerability to decadal-multidecadal “megadroughts” April–November rainfall deciles since 1996 (BoM, State of the Climate 2014). 6. Uncertainty due to climate change 7. Public expense and energy intensity of water supply system augmentation Record low inflows to Melbourne catchments • During 1997-2011, Melbourne catchments received inflows 30% below long term averages, even including the heavy rain in 2010 and 2011 • How much is natural decadal variability and how much is due to human- influenced increases in temperature? How unusual is this low inflow? Source: Melbourne Water What can palaeoclimate science provide?