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Utilising Palaeoclimate Data in Water Resource Planning: Recent Work and Proposed ARC Linkage Project

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Utilising Palaeoclimate Data in Water Resource Planning: Recent Work and Proposed ARC Linkage Project Utilising palaeoclimate data in water resource planning: recent work and proposed ARC Linkage Project Ben Henley1, Joëlle Gergis1, David Karoly1 School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia Overview 1. Recent work in using multi-proxy palaeoclimatology understanding hydrological variability: regional rainfall and streamflow reconstructions in South-eastern Australia, extension of instrumental data using historical records (Gergis, Gallant, Ashcroft, Karoly) 2. Overview of Proposed ARC Linkage Project 2015: “Megadrought likelihood and its water resource impacts in Australia” (incorporating palaeoclimate and climate model data into water supply planning) 3. Understanding decadal variability: tracking and reconstructing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (Henley, Gergis, Karoly) Motivating Factors 1. Millennium drought 2. Growing population 3. Short observed records 4. Highly variable and persistent climate 5. Vulnerability to decadal-multidecadal “megadroughts” April–November rainfall deciles since 1996 (BoM, State of the Climate 2014). 6. Uncertainty due to climate change 7. Public expense and energy intensity of water supply system augmentation Record low inflows to Melbourne catchments • During 1997-2011, Melbourne catchments received inflows 30% below long term averages, even including the heavy rain in 2010 and 2011 • How much is natural decadal variability and how much is due to human- influenced increases in temperature? How unusual is this low inflow? Source: Melbourne Water What can palaeoclimate science provide? Tree growth rings Biological and geological indicators capture natural climate variability on seasonal–centennial timescales e.g. tree rings, corals, ice cores, lake sediments, cave records High resolution (i.e. seasonal–annually resolved) palaeoclimate records extend the instrumental climate record centuries into the past • Provides estimates of pre- Ice laminations instrumental natural climate variations to assess recent climate extremes • Palaeoclimate reconstructions are a tool for comparison with climate models: • Assess the role of ‘natural forcing’ e.g. solar, volcanic, internal ocean– atmospheric processes (ENSO, SAM, IOD) and anthropogenic GHG forcing Coral banding SE Australian rainfall reconstruc=on, 1783–1988 r=0.57+/-0.08 33% of annual varia=ons captured • 12 proxies used for May–April SEA rainfall reconstruc:on back to 1783 r=0.85+/-0.15 72% of decadal varia=ons captured Very high skill in decadal band, but also good inter-annual skill Gergis et al. (2012), Clima*c Change River Murray streamflow reconstruc=on, 1783-1988 r=0.49 24% of annual varia=ons captured Water Resources Research r=0.72 52% of decadal varia=ons captured Gallant and Gergis (2011), - Nine proxies used for August–July streamflow reconstruc:on (none from within the MDB) - Losing reconstruc:on skill at the catchment level, but the results are promising - Reconstruc:on can only capture rainfall component of streamflow so is limited Recent River Murray streamflow deficits in a longer- term context • Where does the River Murray streamflow deficits sit in a longer-term context? River Murray streamflow Using RECONSTRUCTED OBSERVATIONS from the 10,000- member reconstruc:on ensemble it was es:mated that there is only a 2.3% chance that the 1998– 2009 streamflow deficit has been exceeded since 1783 (length of the reconstruc:on) Also used SIMULATED stas:cal modeling of River Murray streamflow (100,000 year synthe:c simulaons based on parameter derived from our 10,000 palaeostreamflow reconstruc:ons) to es:mate that the 1998–2009 streamflow deficit has an Average Recurrence Interval of 1 in 1500 years Gallant and Gergis (2011), Water Resources Research Extended Instrumental Record Ashcroft, L., Gergis, J., & Karoly, D. J. (2014). A historical climate dataset for southeastern Australia , 1788 – 1859. Geoscience Data Journal, 1, 158–178. Proposed ARC Linkage Project 2015 Megadrought likelihood and its water resource impacts in Australia: Incorporating palaeoclimate data and future projections into water planning Ben Henley, David Karoly, Murray Peel, Joëlle Gergis, Ailie Gallant, Rory Nathan, K.S. Tan, Geoff Steendam, Bertrand Timbal Previous projects Climatic Change (2012) 111:923–944 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0263-x Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | On the long-term contextAccess Open of the 1997–2009 ‘Big Dry’ Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 11, 4579–4638, 2014 Hydrology and www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/11/4579/2014/ in South-EasternEarth System Australia: insights from a 206-year doi:10.5194/hessd-11-4579-2014 HESSD Sciences © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. multi-proxy rainfallDiscussions reconstruction11, 4579–4638, 2014 This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Part 2: Estimation Joëlle Gergis & Ailie Jane Eyre Gallant & Karl Braganza & David John Karoly & Sciences (HESS). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in HESS if available. and uncertainty ofWATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, VOL. 47, W00G04, doi:10.1029/2010WR009832, 2011 Kathryn Allen & Louise Cullen & Rosanne Dannual’Arrigo runo& Ian◆ and Goodwin & Pauline Grierson & Uncertainty in runo◆ basedShayne McGregor on Global reservoir yield Climate Model precipitation and M.An C. experimental Peel et al. streamflow reconstruction for the River Murray, Australia, 1783–1988 temperature data – Part 2: Estimation and AilieTitle J. Page E. Gallant1 and Joëlle Gergis1 uncertainty of annual runoReceived:◆ 16and December reservoir 2010 /Accepted: 8 July 2011Abstract /PublishedReceived 30Introduction July online: 2010;4 revised November 21 January 2011 2011; accepted 17 February 2011; published 26 April 2011. Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 # [1] We present an experimental reconstruction of River Murray streamflow to assess Conclusions References yield present‐day variations in the context of the past two centuries. Nine annually resolved TablespaleoclimateFigures proxy records from the Australasian region are used to develop a 1 2 1 3 M. C. Peel , R. Srikanthan , T. A. McMahon ,Abstract and D. J. KarolyThis study presents the first multi-proxyreconstruction reconstruction of streamflow of rainfallfrom 1783 variability to 1988. An ensemble of reconstructions is presented, providing probabilistic estimates of River Murray flows for each year back in 1 from the mid-latitude region of south-eastJern AustraliaI (SEA). A skilful rainfall Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, 3010 Victoria, Australia time. The best‐estimate reconstruction captures approximately 23% (50%) of annual 2Water Division, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne,reconstruction 3001 Victoria, Australia for the 1783–1988 period was possible using twelve annually-resolved 3 (decadal)J naturalizedI streamflow variability. High and low streamflow phases and their School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellencepalaeoclimate for Climate records System Science, from the Australasian region.association An innovative with decadal Monte climate Carlo variability calibration in the Pacific are discussed. Reconstructed University of Melbourne, 3010 Victoria, Australia Back Close and verification technique is introduced to provideRiver the Murray robust streamflow uncertainty shows estimates considerable needed variation since 1783. We estimate that there Received: 28 March 2014 – Accepted: 22 April 2014 – Published: 5 May 2014 isFull a Screen 2.3% / chance Esc that the 1998–2008 record low decadal streamflow deficit has been for reliable climate reconstructions. Our ensembleexceeded median since reconstruction European settlement. captures Stochastic 33% of simulations of the decadal variations in Correspondence to: M. C. Peel ([email protected])inter-annual and 72% of decadal variations inRiver instrumental Murray streamflow SEA rainfall are computed observations. using Wethe paleostreamflow reconstruction to Printer-friendly Version Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of theinvestigate European Geosciencesthe stability Union. of regional SEA rainfallestimate with large-scale model parameters. circulation From associated these simulations, with we estimate that the 1998–2008 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and theInteractivestreamflow Inter-decadal Discussion deficit Pacific has an Oscillation approximate (IPO)1 in 1500 over year return period. As climate models are assessed relative to short instrumental records, future projections of decadal‐scale variations 4579 in Murray‐Darling Basin (MDB) streamflow may be inadequately represented. Given the immense socioeconomic importance of Australia’s “food bowl,” future paleoclimate Electronic supplementary material The online versionand of modeling this article efforts (doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0263-x) should be directed at understanding variability at this scale. This contains supplementary material, which is available to authorizedwould greatly users. enhance our capacity to estimate regional sensitivity of the MDB’s hydroclimate to further anthropogenic influences. J. Gergis (*) : A. J. E. Gallant : D. J. Karoly School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne,Citation: VICGallant, 3010, A. J. Australia E., and J. Gergis (2011), An experimental streamflow reconstruction for the River Murray, Australia, e-mail: [email protected] 1783–1988, Water Resour. Res., 47, W00G04, doi:10.1029/2010WR009832. K. Braganza Australian Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne,1. Introduction VIC 3001, Australia
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