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The Utility of the ERA40 Cyclone Phase Space in Trend Diagnosis and North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Reanalysis Danielle M

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The Utility of the ERA40 Cyclone Phase Space in Trend Diagnosis and North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Reanalysis Danielle M Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2007 The Utility of the ERA40 Cyclone Phase Space in Trend Diagnosis and North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Reanalysis Danielle M. Manning Follow this and additional works at the FSU Digital Library. For more information, please contact [email protected] THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES THE UTILITY OF THE ERA40 CYCLONE PHASE SPACE IN TREND DIAGNOSIS AND NORTH ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE REANALYSIS By DANIELLE M. MANNING A Thesis submitted to the Department of Meteorology in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree Awarded: Summer Semester, 2007 The members of the Committee approve the Thesis of Danielle M. Manning defended on 5 July 2007. _________________________________ Robert Hart Professor Directing Thesis _________________________________ Paul Ruscher Committee Member _________________________________ Paul Reasor Committee Member The Office of Graduate Studies has verified and approved the above named committee members. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author was funded by and AMS Graduate Fellowship during the 2005-2006 school year. This research was funded by NOAA/OGP Award NA05OAR431114. The author appreciates the guidance and support of her advisor, Dr. Robert Hart and committee members Dr. Paul Ruscher and Dr. Paul Reasor. This research has also benefited from discussions with Chris Landsea and Jack Beven of NOAA/TPC, and Clark Evans and Ryan Maue of The Florida State University. The author also gratefully acknowledges ECMWF for making the reanalysis dataset available. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables .........................................................................................................................v List of Figures........................................................................................................................vii Abstract..................................................................................................................................xi 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................1 2. DATA AND METHODOLOGY.......................................................................................6 3. GENERAL REPRESENTATION OF TCS WITHIN ERA40..........................................11 a. Structure and Intensity Representation ..................................................................11 b. Track Representation .............................................................................................12 c. Sensitivity to Track Subjectivity............................................................................13 4. ERA40 CPS CLIMATOLOGY AND BIASES.................................................................21 a. Effects of Satellite Data .........................................................................................21 b. Effects of TC Size..................................................................................................24 c. Effects of TC Location...........................................................................................25 d. Discussion..............................................................................................................26 5. CPS AS A REANALYSIS TOOL.....................................................................................42 a. Refined ET Time....................................................................................................42 b. Refined Genesis Structure......................................................................................44 c. Refined Structure in General..................................................................................45 d. Storms Captured Well............................................................................................46 e. New Storms............................................................................................................48 6. CONCLUSION..................................................................................................................68 APPENDIX A........................................................................................................................70 APPENDIX B ........................................................................................................................71 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................76 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH .................................................................................................79 iv LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 ................................................................................................................................10 Average daily counts of various types of observations supplied to the ERA40 data assimilation for five selected periods. (Uppala 2005) Table 3.1 ................................................................................................................................15 The number of TCs from each period that were in the top and bottom ten percentile of ERA40 TC track error Table 4.1 ................................................................................................................................28 P-values comparing the mean ERA40 lower tropospheric thermal wind for each Saffir-Simpson category during three different terciles. Shading indicates that differences are statistically significant to the 95% confidence level. Table 4.2 ................................................................................................................................29 P-values comparing mean ERA40 MSLP for each Saffir-Simpson category during three different terciles. The number in parentheses indicates the number of cases and shading indicates that differences are statistically significant to the 95% confidence level. Table 4.3 ................................................................................................................................30 P-values comparing the mean ERA40 lower tropospheric thermal wind for each Saffir-Simpson category for four different sizes of TCs. The number in parentheses indicates the number of cases and shading indicates that differences are statistically significant to the 95% confidence level. Table 4.4 ................................................................................................................................31 P-values comparing the mean lower tropospheric thermal wind for each storm force size TC for each Saffir-Simpson category. The number in parentheses indicates the number of cases and shading indicates that differences are statistically significant to the 95% confidence level. Table 4.5 ................................................................................................................................32 P-values comparing the mean lower tropospheric thermal wind for TCs occurring in four different locations for each Saffir-Simpson category The number in parentheses indicates the number of cases and shading indicates that differences are statistically significant to the 95% confidence level. v Table 4.6 ................................................................................................................................33 Pearson correlation (R) between ERA40 TC Minimum MSLP (Best track MSLP) and the variable in the first column. Shaded boxes indicate a difference in R between the two of at least 0.25, suggesting a fundamental change in the relationship described by BT vs. ERA40. All comparisons are for 6-h value to 6- h value, except for the YEAR variable in which case the annual mean of MSLP is compared. Table 4.7 ................................................................................................................................33 Pearson correlation (R) between ERA40 TC Minimum MSLP (Best track MSLP) and the variable in the first column averaged over a bin with a width defined by the second column. Shaded boxes indicate a difference in R between the two of at least 0.2, suggesting a significant change in the relationship described by BT vs. ERA40. vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 ...............................................................................................................................4 Example 900-600 hPa thickness (shaded) across a (a) thermally symmetric (nonfrontal) tropical cyclone (Hurricane Floyd on 14 Sep 1999; 1° NOGAPS analysis) and (b) thermally asymmetric (frontal) extratropical cyclone (“Cleveland superbomb” on 26 Jan 1978; 2.5° NCEP-NCAR reanalysis). Cyclone center is labeled within the 500 km radius circle and the bisecting equator indicates direction of motion. The mean thickness for each semicircle is labeled, along with the difference between the semicircles, parameter B (Equation 1). (Hart 2003) Figure 1.2 ...............................................................................................................................5 Three-dimensional cyclone phase Space containing an example of cyclone evolution. (from http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/help.html). Figure 1.3 ...............................................................................................................................5 Cross-sections of the CPS used to visualize cyclone structural evolution more easily. The typical locations of some common synoptic-scale cyclones are marked. (from http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/help.html).
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