Research CenterCenter INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS DIVISION Expertise AgencyAgency of of DPR DPR RI RI Gd. Nusantara I I Lt. Lt. 2 2 Jl. Jend. GatotGatot Subroto Subroto Jakarta PusatPusat - - 10270 10270 c 5715409 5715409 d d 5715245 5715245 m [email protected] A BRIEF STUDY OF ACTUAL AND STRATEGIC ISSUES Vol.XIII, No. 4/II/Puslit/February/2021

MILITARY COUP IN : A TEST FOR ASEAN

Rizki Roza

7 Abstract The Myanmar military once again seized power from the civilian government. The coup that took place on February 1, 2021 is a step backwards for Myanmar's democratization efforts. The people of Myanmar protested and took to the streets, and the military responded by mobilizing forces and abuse of power. This event has sparked criticism from the international community, and has a pressure on ASEAN to take a more active role in restoring peace. This paper intends to discuss the efforts that can be done by ASEAN. The coup, in any case, indicates the military's unpreparedness to surrender power completely to the civilian government. Hitherto, the coup led by General appears more lenient than the previous ones. The military also tends to be more transparent to the international community. This is an opportunity that ASEAN can take advantage of in order to play a more active role, provided that ASEAN dares to be more flexible in exercising the principle of non-intervention. The Government and House of Representatives of the Republic of Indonesia (DPR RI) are expected to push ASEAN towards common stance in order to achieve wider goals of the organization.

Introduction The coup sparked massive Ahead of the inaugural protests and labor strikes in session of parliament concerning various parts of Myanmar. Various result of the general election held elements of society in Myanmar in November 2020, the Myanmar took to the streets and expressed military led by General Min Aung their repudiation of the coup. Hlaing seized control over the The international community government. The military detained has responded and observed the State Counselor Suu Kyi, situation, including the Indonesian President Win Mynt, as well as a government. They are not only number of figures from the National observing developments in PUSLIT BKD League for Democracy (NLD) Party. Myanmar, but also highlighting the Myanmar, which has just recently role of ASEAN. started its transitional period to As a regional organization, democracy, was once again under there is a great expectation that military control on February 1, 2021. ASEAN can play a more active role in restoring democracy and civil house arrest. In order to maintain power in Myanmar. This paper will military control over the government, discuss how ASEAN can respond the (Myanmar military) to the international community’s drafted a new constitution, in which it expectation by first trying to is stipulated that 25% of the national comprehend the political direction and local parliamentary seats must be desired by the military through the reserved for military officials. Based coup. By understanding this issue, it on this constitution, another election may serve as a basis for considering was held in 2011 which was won by the steps that need to be taken by the Union Solidarity and Development ASEAN, including Indonesia. Party (USDP). During the period of control by The Ebb and Flow of the USDP over the government (2011- Myanmar’s Democracy 2016), General Min Aung Hlaing had This is not the first the military a substantial influence in politics. The 8 junta seized power in Myanmar. The NLD won a sweeping victory in the Myanmar military has a long history subsequent election (2015), however in Myanmar's internal affairs. The they were unable to elect Suu Kyi as military once controlled Myanmar's President because the constitution government for decades, and drawn up by the military barred during that time, many democratic her from running for president. The movements had risen. The coup president at that time, Htin Kyaw against the semi-democratic rule in created the position of State Counselor 1962 became a critical turning point which placed Suu Kyi as the head of of . government. Student activists in During this period, the Myanmar led major protests in relationship between the military and 1988 in response to economic the government of Suu Kyi seemed just mismanagement by the military fine, with General Min Aung Hlaing junta and demanded reforms being able to adapt and cooperate, but towards democracy. The protests at the same time maintaining military that occurred on August 8, 1988, or rule by hampering any attempts made also known as , was by the NLD to amend the constitution later recorded as one of the most and to restrict military power. Suu brutal acts of violence committed Kyi even received criticism from the by military forces. It was reported international community when she was that around 5,000 people were killed accused of defending the Myanmar as a result of military violence. In military who were held responsible the same year, Suu Kyi founded for the massacre of the Rohingya the NLD and began to push down people. The coup that took place on the military government to hold February 1, 2021 indicated a conflicting democratic elections. relationship. This is the question of Under domestic and many analysts, what prompted the international pressure, in 1990, military to stage a coup this time, and Myanmar held a general election what does this coup hope to achieve? which was won by the NLD. The The Myanmar military stated military junta refused the result and that this coup was a response to the ordered Suu Kyi to be placed under alleged fraud in the 2020 general elections. The coup leader, General What concerns public the Min Aung Hlaing, had promised free most is the presence of the 77th and fair elections in his speech. He also Light Infantry Division to repel claimed that his government would be demonstrations. This division was different from the military regime that blamed for the mass executions formerly ruled for 49 years who treated of Rohingya people in Rakhine in the protesters in a brutal manner in 2017. Despite a series of abuses 1988 and 2007. However, judging of power, there have been no from the acts taken by the military in reports of significant casualties on maintaining its influence, this coup the demonstrators’ side for more at the very least can be regarded as a than two weeks of military rule. desperate act posed by the military Violence during protests has indeed over the absolute victory achieved by decreased compared to the previous the NLD during the 2020 elections. military junta reign. 9 The NLD won 396 of the 476 seats in UN’s Special Envoy Christine the parliament. NLD’s dominance Schraner Burgener has warned in the parliament could bring about the deputy head of Myanmar's significant changes that could lead to military junta that any use of force constitutional changes that weaken the against protesters would have dire role of the military in politics. consequences, and the international Even though it is still too early to community is always monitoring achieve a conclusive analysis, in any their every move. This warning is case, the way the military took over of utmost importance in order to power and handled protests can be protect the people of Myanmar. used as an early indication in choosing Moreover, the warning was strategic options to make every effort conveyed through a communication to get the democratization process in channel that rarely occured between Myanmar back on track. The promise the military junta and the outside of 'new fair elections’ was not reflected world. This proves that there is still in the military acts. The taking over of hope of a mediation insofar as the a legally elected civilian government junta is willing to communicate is clearly antithetical to the principles with the international community. of democracy and constitutional Such opportunity must be leveraged governance, rule of law, good by Indonesia and ASEAN with the governance, and respect and protection aim of restoring Myanmar's normal of human rights. The arrests of Suu Kyi condition. and other political figures also served as a grim reminder to the Myanmar Viable Efforts for ASEAN people of the arbitrary detention, The coup in Myanmar has torture and kidnappings that occurred sparked calls for ASEAN to play during the previous coup. This a more active role in the region. year’s coup was also followed by the Brunei Darussalam, as the chair of imposition of curfews, disconnection of ASEAN, has implored Myanmar to internet networks (internet blackout), seek dialogue, reconciliation and crowd restrictions, deployment of the return to normalcy. Citing the armored vehicles and use of force to ASEAN Charter, Brunei implored thwart protests. Myanmar to adhere to the principles of democracy, rule of law and good Many interests have forced those governance, respect and protection of states to take a more careful approach human rights as well as fundamental in responding to the unfolding freedom, and also reminded that developments. And now the question political stability in ASEAN is is, how should ASEAN respond to essential for achieving a peaceful, the mounting pressure to play a more stable and prosperous ASEAN active role? The foregoing explanation Community. has described that there are still The response from ASEAN opportunities to push for a mediation, community so far has been anything so what are the obstacles currently but significant, as individual member faced by ASEAN? states show dissenting views. ASEAN has adhered to the Deputy Prime Minister of , principle of non-intervention since Prawit Wongsuwan, stated that the this regional organization was formed coup is Myanmar’s internal affairs. and has been attested through many 10 The Philippine’s Foreign Minister, occasions/events. The 1998 Reform Teodoro Locsin Jr. argued that the in Indonesia can be regarded as an coup in Myanmar was a necessary example of how this principle was act in order to protect democracy in implemented by ASEAN. No ASEAN Myanmar. Cambodian leader Hun member had even attempted to Sen also regarded it as Myanmar’s intervene when Indonesia's internal domestic affairs and declined to affairs were in turmoil. The principle comment further. Meanwhile, of non-intervention is considered to be Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore one of the important factors that helps have expressed their concern over the this regional organization to survive situations in Myanmar and plead all and stable. relevant parties to hold a dialogue. It is an undeniable fact that in A more assertive and overt recent years, this principle began position had been demonstrated by a to attenuate, albeit on a minimal number of countries from outside of scale. Based on historical records, ASEAN. The United States, Britain, the principle of non-intervention Australia and the European Union embraced by ASEAN was excluded condemned the coup and arrests in several events or occassions, committed by the military junta, including against the Myanmar issue. and the declaration of a state of In 2007, ASEAN reached a unanimous emergency in Myanmar. Joe Biden's vote to postpone Myanmar's turn government is even considering to chairmanship in ASEAN, as a to impose sanctions on Myanmar. consequence of its military action New Zealand has cut ties with the during the when military junta, suspended aid and tens of thousands of Buddhist priests barred travel to Myanmar military took to the streets and protested leaders. Those were the most resolute against the junta. When Cyclone acts undertaken by sovereign Nargis hit Myanmar in 2008, ASEAN countries over Myanmar coup. Not also acted out of the ordinary. When all countries are capable of being the death toll reached 134,000 and assertive, for example , the junta refused foreign aid, ASEAN and Japan. responded to the international outrage over the military government’s government. This pressure, if carried mishandling of the crisis. ASEAN out collectively, even if it still has convinced the military junta to be to observe the principle of non- willing to open cooperation with the intervention, is expected to restore international community and ASEAN Myanmar’s democratic process. served as a channel for distributing Indonesia must take the initiative to aid from the international community. push this initiative. ASEAN has also come under heavy criticism for its weak role in responding Closing to the Rohingya crisis. By adhering The process of returning to the principle of non-intervention, the Myanmar military which has ASEAN is restricted from making any been in power for decades to their significant efforts to any progress or barracks as professional army is development that occurs in Myanmar. not an easy task. The February 1, 11 However, it has been proven that in 2021 coup reflects the military's recent years, ASEAN has begun to have unpreparedness to surrender the courage to express its stance on the government affairs to the civilians. issue of Rohingya. This is evident from Despite the abuse of force by the statements uttered by the chairman the military, this year’s coup of ASEAN and joint declarations appears to be more lenient than brought forth by various ASEAN the previous ones. The junta also summits. demonstrates a more open stance ASEAN's long efforts to embrace to the international community. Myanmar's military junta should This is an opportunity that ASEAN also be highlighted as an important should take advantage of in order to reminder. ASEAN accepted Myanmar's play a more active role. This active membership in 1997 by prioritizing role requires ASEAN's courage to efforts of "constructive engagement" be more flexible in applying the so that the junta would be more principle of non-intervention. The open to the aspirations of the people Indonesian government, with the and to make compromises with Suu support of the parliament, can take Kyi. Political reforms that occurred a role as a driving force for other during the reign of PM Thein Sein, ASEAN member countries towards a the release of , and common position. the opportunity for NLD to reclaim its role in Myanmar politics, have been References attributed to the efforts carried out by “Amerika Serikat Ubah Kebijakan ASEAN ever since Myanmar joined as Tentang Palestina”, Kompas.tv, a member. Myanmar's willingness to January 27, 2021, accessed on accept election observers from ASEAN January 27, 2021. in the 2012 election must also be taken “Dijanjikan Bantuan 28 Trilyun oleh into consideration. AS, Indonesia Tetap Tak Buka If ASEAN had the courage Hubungan Diplomatik dengan to implement the principle of non- Israel,” Kompas.com., December intervention in a more flexible 24, 2020, accessed on January 4, way, ASEAN could have taken the 2021. advantage of the current situation to Lanti, Irman G. 2021. “Shoud put pressure on Myanmar's military Indonesia Open Diplomatic Relations with Israel,” The Satria, Lintar. 2021. “Trump Nyaris Jakarta Post-online, December Dorong Normalisasi RI-Israel,” 28, 2020, accessed on January 4, Republika, January 22, 2021, 2021. page 4. “Menlu: Indonesia Tidak Berniat “Setelah Maroko, AS Lobi Negara Buka Hubungan Diplomatik Muslim di Asia Buat Berdamai dengan Israel,” Kompas.com, dengan Israel,” Kompas.com, December 16, 2020, accessed on December 26, 2020, accessed on January 4, 2021. January 4, 2021. “MUI Dorong Pemerintah Tetap Tegas Tak Buka Hubungan Diplomatik dengan Israel,” Kompas.com, December 24, 2020, accessed on January 4, 2021. 12

Rizki Roza [email protected]

Rizki Roza, S.Ip., M.Sc., completed his undergraduate study (S1) of International Relations at Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta in 2003 and his graduate study (S2) of International Relations at Universitas Indonesia in 2007. Currently he serves as a Junior Researcher on International Relation Issues at the Expertise Agency, House of Representatives of the Republic of Indonesia. His articles have been published through journals and books, including: "Confidence Building Measures dan Program Nuklir Iran" (2010); “Konflik Laut China Selatan dan implikasinya terhadap modernisasi militer”(2013); and " Kerjasama internasional dan Peran industri sipil dalam industri pertahanan" 2013).

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