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A University of Sussex PhD thesis Available online via Sussex Research Online: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/ This thesis is protected by copyright which belongs to the author. This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the Author The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the Author When referring to this work, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given Please visit Sussex Research Online for more information and further details Water Security Mercantilism? Transnational State-Capital Alliances & Multi-level Hydropolitics of Land-Water Investments in Egypt and the Nile Basin A Thesis Presented to University of Sussex in accordance with the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Development Studies Institute of Development Studies (IDS) UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX Ramy W. Lotfy Hanna June 2018 2 Bringer of food rich in provisions, creator of all goodness, lord of reverence, sweet of scent, the one whose coming makes peace, creator of plants for the herds, provider of butchery for every god. While he is in the underworld, sky and earth are in his charge. Filler of storerooms, enlarger of granaries, the one who gives plenty to the orphan. Hymn of the Nile circa 2100 BC 4 UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX Ramy W. Lotfy Hanna Institute of Development Studies (IDS) - PhD. Development Studies Water Security Mercantilism? Transnational State-Capital Alliances and Multi-level Hydropolitics of Land-Water Investments in Egypt and the Nile Basin SUMMARY OF THESIS Conventionally, the question of Egyptian water security focused on state-centric transboundary hydropolitics within the larger context of the Nile basin. The presented research explores ‘water security’ beyond this ‘state-centric epistemology’, typically focusing on a singular scale of hydropolitical analysis. This dissertation examines the water (hydro) politics of transnational land-water investments (LWI) within Egypt and the larger context of the Nile river basin. Adopting a multi-site case study methodology, it critically examines the changing role of the state and the engagement of non-state actors in the silent appropriation of land-water resources through investments in farmlands abroad. The research methodology contextualizes how land acquisitions take several shapes and forms within Egypt (Old-New Lands and New Lands/Mega Projects), as well as in other Nile basin countries (e.g. Sudan). They also manifest land- water-food nexus interdependencies for both; profit and larger strategic objectives, through the formation of ‘State-Capital alliances’. Deploying a case study of an international Emirati investor in Egypt, it shows how land-water investments are rooted in a larger socio-political project as part of the state’s vision of horizontal expansion and land reclamation, to address its ecological- demographic narrative of crisis. The research also draws linkages between Egyptian water security and transnational investments in other Nile basin countries with a particular focus on the case of Sudan as part of its larger vision 5 of the ‘breadbasket of the Arab World’. However, while these State-Capital alliances are rooted in narratives of state modernization, security, and profit, they entail various tensions and trade-offs amongst different resources nexi and actors, thus masking larger questions of social justice and equity. These tensions often reflect the manufacture of abundance and translate into water grabs transcending multiple hydropolitical scales. The thesis argues that the changing role of the “entrepreneurial state” and the engagement of non-state actors in transnational land-water investments manifest a transition from the hydraulic mission towards water security mercantilism. I argue that “water security mercantilism” denotes water grabbing, which overrides the conventional understanding of the hydraulic mission (water control by the state); towards a broader understanding of the role of non-state actors and international investors in accessing water, thus creating their own private resources security nexus. Hence, drawing on development studies, hydropolitics, and political economy scholarship, this dissertation broadens out the analysis of Egyptian water security beyond singular-scale state-centric hydropolitical debates; towards a multi-level polycentric analysis of water security, central to which are the farmers, the investors, and the state itself. This implies that transnational land-water investments not only influence small farmers through the reproduction of scarcity on the local level, but also influence the hydraulic mission of the state on the national level, and the larger Nile basin transboundary hydropolitics. 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY OF THESIS 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS 6 LIST OF TABLES, MAPS & FIGURES 9 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 10 Chapter 1: Introduction 13 1.1. Background, Objectives, and Research Questions 13 1.2. Water Security, Hydropolitics, and Transnational Investments: Theoretical Debates, and Empirical Gaps 17 1.3. A Multi-Site Case Study Methodology of Egyptian Water Security & Transnational Land-Water Investments 25 1.4. Dissertation Thesis & Arguments 37 1.5. Structure of Dissertation 41 Chapter 2: Conceptual Framework 45 Introduction 45 2.1. Critique of State-centric Transboundary Hydropolitics 47 2.2. A changing Role of the State in Land-Water Investments 51 2.3. Non-state Actors & Transnational Land-Water Investments: 58 Bridging Nexus and Water Grabs Debates 58 2.4. The Governance Dimensions of Water Security 62 2.5. From the hydraulic mission to water security mercantilism 65 Chapter 3: State Modernization, Horizontal Expansion, and Egypt’s 'Ecological-Demographic Narrative of Crisis’ 67 Introduction 67 3.1. State Modernity and the Hydraulic Mission under Mohamed Ali and Nasser 70 3.2. The Role of the State in Horizontal Expansion and Land Reclamation Schemes: A historical overview 74 3.3. Land-Water Resources in Egypt and the Feddan Game 79 3.4. Shades of Scarcity and Egypt’s Narrative of Crisis 87 Conclusion 102 7 Chapter 4: The Hydraulic Mission of the Entrepreneurial State & the Manufacture of Abundance 103 Introduction 103 4.1. National Determinants of the Entrepreneurial State 107 4.2. The Entrepreneurial State and the Land-Water-Food Nexus: Frontier Making by De- risking Land-Water Investments 113 4.3. Mega Projects Criticism & the Manufacture of Abundance 119 4.4. State-Capital Alliances in Mega Projects 123 4.5. Hydraulic Mission 3.0 and Egypt 2030 Strategy: The 1.5 Million Feddan Mega Project 127 4.6. Conclusion 132 Chapter 5: Transnational State-Capital Alliances and the Gulf-Nile Connection: Al Dahra Agricultural Company 135 Introduction 135 5.1. The State-Capital Alliance: Gulf-Nile Connection 138 5.2. Land-Water-Food Nexus in the Nile Basin: Investors’ 142 Perspective 142 5.3. GCC Non-State Actors’ Investments in the Nile Basin 147 5.4. Al Dahra Large-scale Land Acquisitions (LSLA) in Egypt 156 5.5. CONCLUSION 166 Chapter 6: The Reproduction of Scarcity & Local Scale Hydropolitics in Old- New Lands: Al Dahra Case Study in Al Salheya and Al Nubareya 168 Introduction 168 6.1. Land Reclamation & Inherent Water User Challenges in Old-New Lands 171 6.2. Water Grabs? Technology, Capital, and Corporate Water Security in Al Dahra Farmland – Al Salheya (East Nile Delta) 181 6.3. The Paradox of Surface and Underground Water in Al Dahra farmlands in Al Nubareya 195 6.4. Nexus Tensions in Old-New Lands (Salheya and Nubareya) 202 6.5. Conclusion: The Reproduction of Water Scarcity 215 8 Chapter 7: Egyptian Water Security and Transnational Land-Water Investments in the Nile Basin: The Case of Sudan 217 Introduction 217 7.1. Transnational Investments and Land-Water Resources 220 Potential in Sudan 220 7.2. Transnational Investments in Sudan by the Egyptian State: 225 The Land-Water-Food Nexus as an Unachieved Opportunity 225 7.3. Transnational Investments by Egyptian and International Non-State Actors in Sudan 230 7.4. Conclusion 243 Chapter 8: Synthesis & Conclusion 246 8.1. A broadened view of Egyptian Water Security & Transnational Investments in the Nile Basin 246 8.2. The Gulf-Nile Connection: State-Capital Alliances and the Land-Water Nexus as a Political-Economic Commodity 249 8.3. Manufacture of Abundance: Nexus Opportunities, and Tensions in Egypt 256 8.4.Water Grabs & the Hydropolitics of Land Investments: A multilevel Analysis of Egyptian Water Security 266 8.5. From the hydraulic mission to water security mercantilism 275 9 LIST OF TABLES, MAPS & FIGURES List of Tables Table 1.1 Size of Land Acquisitions in Different Nile Basin Countries……………………….…………………………19 Table 3.1. Land Reclamation Projects in Egypt 1950s-2000s……..……………………………………………………….78 Table 3.2. Mapping of Different Actors in Land Reclamation Schemes in Egypt……………………………………82 Table 3.3. Demographic Distribution in Agro-ecological Zones in Egypt………………………………………………89 Table 3.4. Population Density in Egypt’s Nile Valley and Delta Governorates……………………………………….90 Table 3.5. Egypt Quantity of Water Resources by Source (2010-2015)…………………..……………………………..95 Table 3.6. Water Uses by Sector 2010-2015………………………………………………………………………………….…...96 Table 3.7. Cereal Imports in selected countries 1960-2005 (000 metric tons)…………………………….…………97 Table 3.8. Egypt Wheat and Rice Imports (2008-2011)……………..………………………….…………………………….98 Table 4.1. Share of agriculture and irrigation sector