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Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disasters Preparedness in the Coastal Cities of North Africa

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Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disasters Preparedness in the Coastal Cities of North Africa Arab Republic of Egypt Kingdom of Morocco THE WORLD Republic of Tunisia BANK Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disasters Preparedness in the Coastal Cities of North Africa Phase 1 : Risk Assessment for the Present Situation and Horizon 2030 – Alexandria Area Draft Final Version 31 January 2011 Project Web Site: http://www.egis-bceominternational.com/pbm/ AASTMT / Egis Bceom Int. / IAU-IDF / BRGM Document quality information Document quality information General information Author(s) AASTMT / Egis BCEOM International Project name Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disasters Preparedness in the Coastal Cities of North Africa Document name Phase 1 : Risk Assessment for the Present Situation and Horizon 2030 – Alexandria Area Date 31 January 2011 Reference GED 80823T Addressee(s) Sent to: Name Organization Sent on (date): A. Bigio The World Bank 31 January 2011 Copy to: Name Organization Sent on (date): S. Rouhana The World Bank 31 January 2011 A. Tiwari The World Bank 31 January 2011 A. Amasha AASTMT 31 January 2011 History of modifications Version Date Written by Approved & signed by: AASTMT / Egis BCEOM Version 1 13 June 2010 International AASTMT / Egis BCEOM Version 2 06 August 2010 International 05 December AASTMT / Egis BCEOM Version 3 2010 International Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disasters Preparedness Page 2 in the Coastal Cities of North Africa Draft Final Version AASTMT / Egis Bceom Int. / IAU-IDF / BRGM Document quality information Supervision and Management of the Study The present study is financed by the World Bank as well as the following fiduciary funds: NTF- PSI, TFESSD and GFDRR, which are administered by the World Bank. Their support in carrying out the study proved indispensable and those people in charge of the study would like to thank them wholeheartedly for their help. The Bank’s Department of Sustainable Development for the Middle Eastern and North African regions (directed by Laszlo Lovei), together with the Urban and Social Development Unit, located in this same Department and directed by Anna Bjerde, were responsible for the institutional aspect of the study. The study is directed and supervised by Anthony Bigio, who manages the team made up of the following people: Stéphane Hallegatte, Osama Hamad, Salim Rouhana and Asmita Tiwari. The examiners who participated in the quality control activity for the study are Alexander Bakalian, Henricke Brecht, Philippe Huc, Alexander Kremer, Michel Matera and Edward Tschan, on behalf of the Middle Eastern and African region as well as the GFDRR. List of Contributors Team of the Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport Prof. Dr Mohammed El Raey Dr. Ali Amasha Mr.Tamer Abou Gharara Ms. Lama El Hatow Mr. Waleed Mansour Dr. Ali El Hadidi Dr. Essam Abdelmawla Dr. Ola Arafat Eng. Samar Hafez Eng. Sara Hamady Ch. Mohamed Yousef And Miss Hoda Mostafa GIS Team Mr. Ahmad Mounir Bahy el Dien, Eng. Awad Gamil, Eng. Dina Wael, Eng. Emad Ammar, and Miss Bassant Gamal Revision of the Urban Vulnerability sections (Dr. Hany Ayyad and Eng. Alaa Abdel Fattah- GOPP) Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disasters Preparedness Page 4 in the Coastal Cities of North Africa Draft Final Version AASTMT / Egis Bceom Int. / IAU-IDF / BRGM Document quality information With consultation Prof. Omran Frithy, Prof. Mohaemd El Ganaini, Dr. Wael Kheder and Dr. Akram Soliman and counterparts from EGIS The AASTMT work was carried out under the umbrella of the simulator complex Team of the Egis BCEOM International / IAU-IDF / BRGM consortium Yves Ennesser (Egis BCEOM International) Victor Said (IAU-IDF) Monique Terrier (BRGM) And Mireille Raymond, Dominique cataliotti, Franck Zangelmi, Guillaume Dulac, Michel Albientz, François Bertone, François Beauchain, Fabrizio Ferrucci from Egis BCEOM International; Eric Huybrechts from IAU-IDF; Terry Winter from BRGM. With contribution of A. Mokssit and F. Driouech from Maroc Météo Team of ALTAMIRA Information (on behalf of the European Space Agency) Oscar Mora Pepa Sedo Azzedine Boudiaf Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disasters Preparedness Page 5 in the Coastal Cities of North Africa Draft Final Version AASTMT / Egis Bceom Int. / IAU-IDF / BRGM Document quality information Acknowledgements It would not have been possible to perform the present study without the help and support of various national and local institutions. We especially would like to thank Mr. Mohamed Abdel Monem Farouk Osman, Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency, Coastal Zone Management and Lakes Department, who oversaw the study from the perspective of the national authorities, and H.E. Dr. Adel Labib, Alexandria Governorate, who oversaw the study from the perspective of the deconcentrated authorities in charge of urban management. We also would like to thank the following institutions for their assistance, data disposal, hearing, and pertinent advises: • Ministry Of Housing, Utilities & Urban Development, General Organization For Physical Planning (Cairo), Physical Planning Center for Alexandria Region • Crisis Management and Disaster Risk Reduction Department, Information and Decision Support Centre (IDSC) / The Egyptian Cabinet • Egyptian Meteorological Authority • Coastal Research Institute • Shore Protection Authority • Alexandria Sanitary Drainage Company • National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Science • General Administration of Civil Protection • UNISDR/ Regional Office for Arab States • Red Crescent / Egypt • Regional Center for Disaster Risk Reduction • Regional Office for the Middle East North Africa, and Central Asia office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) • Faculty of Engineering – University of Alexandria • Bibliotheca Alexandrina A number of meetings have been held by the Academy team, the World Bank and Egis Consultants with various technical authorities of these organizations to inform them of the main objectives of the project and the immediate objective of the first phase of the project, which is the collection of data, preliminary analysis, integration and identification of gaps. A team of researchers at the Arab Academy (Simulator Complex) has been formulated to coordinate with the an equivalent team at EGIS headquarters to collect data, information, published and unpublished literature and to build up a GIS for various needed parameters including a Digital Elevation Model, Satellite imagery, population distribution as well as available ground based measurements. The data collected, literature and information available is surveyed and summarized here. The GIS has been built and the capacity of the personnel at the Simulator Complex has been upgraded through mutual meetings and cooperative work. Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disasters Preparedness Page 6 in the Coastal Cities of North Africa Draft Final Version AASTMT / Egis Bceom Int. / IAU-IDF / BRGM Document quality information We would like to thank the European Space Agency who accepted to support the present study by financing the space earth observation applications by specialised companies. Finally, we would like to point out the major role of the Center for Mediterranean Integration (CMI) in the dissemination of the study results and the implementation of informal exchanges between the concerned countries. Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disasters Preparedness Page 7 in the Coastal Cities of North Africa Draft Final Version AASTMT / Egis Bceom Int. / IAU-IDF / BRGM Contents Contents Executive Summary................................................................................... 22 Introduction ................................................................................................ 49 Chapter 1 - Assessment of Hazards: Present Situation and Perspective for 2030............................................................. 53 1. Climate and Extreme Climatic Events................................................53 1.1. Introduction .................................................................................................. 53 1.2. Climatic Evolution Observed for the Alexandria Station .............................. 54 1.2.1. General Information about Alexandria Meteorological Data .......................... 54 1.2.2. Climate of Alexandria .................................................................................... 54 1.2.3. Climatic Trends ............................................................................................. 57 1.3. Extreme Meteorological Events in the Present Situation............................. 57 1.3.1. Maximum Temperature Trends ..................................................................... 57 1.3.2. Minimum Temperature Trends ...................................................................... 58 1.3.3. Maximum daily rainfall................................................................................... 58 1.4. Climate change Projections for 2030 ........................................................... 60 1.4.1. Introduction.................................................................................................... 60 1.4.2. Main Climate Change Projections ................................................................. 61 1.4.3. Situation for Alexandria ................................................................................. 63 1.4.4. Specific Case of Extreme Rainfall Events ..................................................... 66 1.5. Climate Change and Rise in Sea Levels ..................................................... 70 1.5.1.
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