Arif Yunusov Azerbaijan in the early of XXI Century: Conflicts and Potential Threats Baku - 2007 INSTITUTE OF PEACE AND DEMOCRACY ARIF YUNUSOV AZERBAIJAN IN THE EARLY OF XXI CENTURY: CONFLICTS AND POTENTIAL THREATS Baku – 2007 The publication is implemented by the Institute of Peace and Democracy owing to the financial support of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation. The publication expresses the author’s private opinion. Friedrich Ebert Foundation does not bear responsibility for the contents of the text. Editor: Dr. Rauf Huseynov, professor of Historical Sciences, (National Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan) Translation: Aydin Mamedov Editor of translation: Evan Thomas - a graduate of the Russian Studies department at Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada Technical editor: Javanshir Huseynov Designer: Toghrul Aghababayev Yunusov A. S. Azerbaijan in early XXI Century: Conflicts and Potential Threats. – Baku: “ADILOGLU”, 2007. - 256 p. Based on many years field studies, mass media monitoring, and a sociological survey, the author’s monograph touches upon all conflict situations and challenges Azerbaijan has come across in the post-Soviet era. At the same time, the author has conducted an analysis of potential threats that Azerbaijan may encounter within the foreseeable future. Emphasis has been placed on the issue of Karabakh conflict, as well as Azerbaijan’s relationships with Russia, Iran, the USA and other western nations. A significant portion is focused on the country’s internal problems – the role of political Islam, international relations, and political system. This book for those who take an interest in the developments of contemporary Azerbaijan and future outlooks for progress of the region. ISBN 978-9852-80-52-3-9 Kod: 121 CONTENTS Introduction …………………………………………………………4 Part I. External ConfliCts…………………………………………. 8 Chapter 1. The Karabakh Conflict: Neither War, Nor Peace …..…8 Chapter 2. Azerbaijani-Russian relations: Friendship and Cooperation Based on Suspicion and Mistrust …………3 4 Chapter 3. The Iranian Trap ………………………………….……5 9 Chapter 4. The West, Oil, and Stability in Azerbaijan ……….……85 Part II. Internal conflicts……………………………………….. 116 Chapter 5. The Islamic Factor: Problems and Prospects …….………116 Chapter 6. Interethnic Relations ……………………………….……144 Chapter 7. Political institutions: declaration and reality ……….……165 Part III. Results of soCioloGiCal survey ………………………... 188 Conclusion ……………………………………………………..……20 8 Notes ………..…………………………………………………… 235 To my wife and friend Leyla Yunus and all others fighting for democracy in Azerbaijan IntroduCtion At the end of the 1980’s a wave of revolutionary changes swept away the communist regimes of Central and Eastern Europe and resulted in the collapse of the USSR in 1991. As a result, on the land representing one sixth of the earth there emerged new independent states that considerably changed the political map of Eurasia. The quick wind of change also touched Azerbaijan which in 1991 managed to restore the independence it lost in 1920. The republic at once headed for the creation of a politically stable and economically succeeding democratic state built on the ruins of the communist system. However, as did many young states of the former Soviet Union during first their steps as independent states, Azerbaijan also encountered many problems - bloody conflict with heavy consequences with Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh and the disruption of the economy. At the same time, Azerbaijan drew great attention as the only state in the region possessing significant reserves of oil and gas. After the signing of the “Oil Contracts” with a number of the world’s leading oil companies in 1994, interest in Azerbaijan continued to increase. Azerbaijan stepped into the XXIst century with hope for a stable and democratic future. Having defined its choice of European integration and democratic development, on 17 January 2001, Azerbaijan became a full member of the Council of Europe. However, the present situation in the republic is very complex. In fact, Azerbaijan entered the XXIst century with a greater set of conflicts and problems within the country itself. Moreover, significant influence on the development of the situation in Azerbaijan is rendered by external factors, especially geopolitical contradictions in the region between the USA, Russia, Turkey and Iran. Quite naturally, with such a large number of internal and external current and potential conflicts, and regional rivalries amongst external actors is causing a deserving anxiety for the future development of Azerbaijan. What can Azerbaijan expect in the short and long term future? Will it continue on the path of further European integration and become in the foreseeable future a democratic and economically flourishing country? Or will the country remain in conflict, economic and political instability and encounter prospect of disintegration? What security threats does the country face from abroad? What factors within the country can affect the destabilization of the situation in Azerbaijan? How can it affect the situation in the region as a whole? And what can and must be done for the prevention of destabilization? Today all these questions are very real and consequently it is extremely important to study the above-stated problems and search for ways to solve existing conflicts, and also to define possible conflicts in the process of Azerbaijan’s further development. The complexity of the situation lies in the fact that, on the one hand, still less than two decades have passed since Azerbaijan’s declaration of independence. And they have passed so quickly and dynamically, with such a great number of important political events that historians have managed only to note these events, postponing analytical judgment of them for future generations. At the same time, despite an abundance of political events at the disposal of historians, there are not enough documents and archival materials, not even a single one on many political events. So in order to reconstruct these events, historians turn to newspapers materials and to memoirs and testimonies from the participants and eyewitnesses of these events, all the while not always being assured of the conscientiousness and objectivity of the latter. Despite all of these complexities, the author decided to study and analyze the situation in Azerbaijan during the past two decades. Research and analysis of those years and of the present-day situation is important to dispel numerous myths and stereotypes which have arisen about Azerbaijan abroad. It is also, as a matter of fact, the first academic research of this period of history in post-Soviet Azerbaijan. At the same time, it is especially necessary to note that the book has not been written by a traditional method. In other words, the author did not focus on writing the history of Azerbaijan for the period since gaining independence in 1991 until the present day. He aimed to investigate and analyze the current situation in Azerbaijan from the point of view of conflict studies. In other words, investigating what conflict situations exist in Azerbaijan today, the sources of their origin and possible variations of their further development. Also, an attempt has been made to understand the presence of potential conflict situations. Realizing this project of studying the current and potential conflicts in Azerbaijan began in August 2005 with the financial support of Friedrich Ebert Stiftung of Germany. Special attention was paid to the most important and current factors and current problems in Azerbaijan which can today or in the long-term future play a negative role and lead to the destabilization of the situation in the republic. Thus, all factors which influence the development of the situation in Azerbaijan have been subdivided into those external and internal. The realization of the project passed through several stages. During the first stage, monitoring of the media was carried out along with the gathering of necessary materials to study the problem. In the second stage, the Institute of Peace and Democracy (IPD) conducted a sociological survey in five regions of the country from 1 March - 31 July 2006. During this stage, 1000 citizens were questioned and 50 citizens were interviewed. In the final stage, all the material gathered during recent years and during the course of the project, were collected and used for drafting the present research. Taking this opportunity, it would only be appropriate to express deep gratitude to everyone who helped and assisted in the realization of this project. But special thanks must be addressed to those who supported this research appearing in print. They include, first of all, the management of Friedrich Ebert Stiftung and personally its representative on the Caucasus Guenther Fichtner, who has shown not only understanding of the importance of studying of current conflict situations and problems in Azerbaijan, but also a tactful attitude to the problems which arose during the realization of the project. I would like to express my special gratitude to Doctor of History, Professor Rauf Huseynov, who played a most vital role in the realization of this project: by visiting the regions of the republic and helping to gather the necessary materials, consulting, and also editing the book in its final stage. Also it would be impossible not to mention all the experts at the IPD, in particular the heads of groups: Doctors of History Yunis Nasibov, Khaliaddin Khalilov and Alekper Alekperov, who have wonderfully run