Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Table of Contents Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Introduction 4 Chapter 4 Transit Market Analysis 32 Context Within the RTP...... 4 Existing and Projected Jobs and Population...... 33 Overview...... 5 Transit-Supportive Areas...... 35 Transit Propensity...... 37 Chapter 2 Transit Network Analysis 6 Overview of Services...... 6 Chapter 5 Travel Flow Analysis 46 Trends in Transit Ridership...... 10 Overview of Regional Travel Patterns...... 47 Transit Network Coverage...... 12 Level of Service...... 17 Chapter 6 Existing Plans and Land Use 56 Chapter 3 Transit Funding and State of Good Repair 26 Regional Planning...... 56 Transit Funding in the Central Maryland Region...... 26 Planned Growth...... 58 Current Spending and Future Needs...... 28 Anne Arundel County Land Use and Growth Areas...... 58 Financing and Partnerships...... 28 Baltimore City Land Use and Growth Areas...... 60 Assets Supporting Public Transit...... 29 Baltimore County Land Use and Growth Areas...... 61 State of Good Repair...... 29 Harford County Land Use and Growth Areas...... 62 Howard County Land Use and Growth Areas...... 64 Executive Summary

anticipated growth areas within the region (in terms of population, jobs, Overview Introduction ———————————————— and travel patterns) offers insights as Seven public transit agencies serve to where the RTP can focus its efforts 1 the Central Maryland study area: to meet future needs. the Maryland Transit Administration (part of the Maryland Department of This important context for the RTP Transportation and generally referred This technical report outlines the is developed by answering key Context Within to as MDOT MTA), Annapolis Transit, existing and future conditions of the questions, including: study area of the Central Maryland the RTP the Anne Arundel County Office of Transportation (OOT), the Baltimore Regional Transit Plan (RTP). The RTP —————————————————— • What transit serves the region? City Department of Transportation is a 25-year effort aimed at improving Several key questions must be • How well does existing transit (DOT), Baltimore CountyRide, Harford and expanding access to transit, answered to establish a baseline cover areas in the region where Transit LINK, and the Regional and the study area encompasses of transit allocation, need and people live, work, and access Transportation Agency of Central Baltimore City, Baltimore County, performance in the region at the services? Maryland (RTA). These agencies Anne Arundel County, Harford County, outset of the RTP. Without a baseline, • How do we maintain existing provide fixed-route local bus, light and Howard County. developing meaningful analysis of transit infrastructure? rail, heavy rail, and paratransit service transit gaps or identifying the most • How does land use influence in Baltimore and the surrounding effective strategies to improve the transportation options? counties, as well as commuter bus provision of transit is impossible. • Where do people travel within the and MARC rail service stretching Similarly, an assessment of the region? across the state. • How will future growth affect transit needs throughout the To establish a robust baseline and region? foundation for subsequent tasks, and to answer the questions listed above, In parallel to the analysis described in this technical report is organized into this technical report the RTP Project five sections: Team conducted outreach with stakeholders (including the public) to • Transit Network Analysis ensure that the conditions analysis is • Transit Funding and State of Good guided by those who use and benefit Repair from the transit systems the most. • Transit Market Analysis • Travel Flow Analysis • Existing Plans and Land Use

Linking Central Maryland A CityLink Brown bus makes its way through Baltimore.

4 5 Transit Network Analysis

Transit Network Table 2-1 | MDOT MTA Transit Services

Annual Analysis MDOT MTA Services 2 Ridership FY18 LocalLink: Neighborhood service Core Bus CityLink: Frequent arterial service 63,797,000 The study area for the RTP includes Express BusLink: Peak-hour limited-stop service Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Overview of Services 15-mile heavy rail system with 14 stations from ——————————————————— Metro Subway 8,917,000 Anne Arundel County, Harford Owings Mills to Baltimore City. Public transit in the region is provided County, and Howard County. This 30-mile light rail system with 33 stations from by six fixed-route modes: local bus, Light Rail 7,417,000 five‑jurisdiction region includes a wide Hunt Valley to BWI Airport and Glen Burnie. commuter bus, light rail, heavy rail, range of geographies, densities, and commuter rail, and ferry. Paratransit is Penn Line: 13 stations over 77 miles land uses, from rural to urban core MARC Camden Line: 12 stations over 39 miles also available to qualifying passengers 9,327,000 and from farmland to the Chesapeake Commuter Rail Brunswick Line: 19 stations over 74 miles in every jurisdiction, and an array Bay. Baltimore City anchors the study (outside study area) of private transit services offer area, dominating in population, jobs, 36 total routes operated by six operating transportation to specific destinations Commuter Bus 3,820,000 and transit service, but the region is contractors; with 22 routes in Central Maryland. in and around Baltimore. Paratransit and on-demand services within also defined by its close links to the Mobility and Call- Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia three-quarters of a mile from all Core Bus routes 2,954,000 Table 2-1 and Table 2-2 describe the a-Ride metropolitan areas. and Light Rail or Metro Subway stations. services offered by MDOT MTA and by the LOTS, as well as their annual There are seven public transit ridership. Table 2-2 | Locally Operated Transit Systems Services agencies in Central Maryland: MDOT MTA, Annapolis Transit, Anne Arundel County OOT, the Baltimore City DOT, Annual Locally Operated Transit Systems (LOTS) Baltimore CountyRide, Harford Transit Ridership FY18 LINK, and the RTA. The six agencies Local bus and paratransit within the City of besides MDOT MTA are all known as Annapolis Transit 409,000 Locally Operated Transit Systems, or Annapolis. LOTS. Anne Arundel Local bus and paratransit services within Anne 108,000 County OOT Arundel County. These agencies work together to Frequent bus service (Charm City Circulator) connect these areas with efficient and Baltimore City DOT and Harbor Connector water taxi service. 2,753,000 reliable public transportation services. Call-ahead paratransit service within Baltimore Each jurisdiction offers fixed‑route Baltimore and paratransit services, and all County for eligible paratransit riders or rural 42,000 CountyRide residents. agencies provide some connections to neighboring transit systems, allowing Harford Transit Local bus and paratransit services in Harford 336,000 travel by transit across the region. LINK County and southwestern Cecil County.

Local bus and paratransit services in Howard, RTA of Central Anne Arundel, and northern Prince George’s 917,000 Maryland counties.

The five jurisdictions studied in the RTP.

6 7 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Transit Network Analysis

Figure 2-1 Figure 2-2 Fixed-Route Services Paratransit Services

Fixed-Route Service

Fixed-route services (Figure 2-1) within a defined service area. These includes curb-to-curb or door-to-door paratransit services are also available operate on a regular schedule, services are limited to passengers transit for people with disabilities. throughout Baltimore, Anne Arundel, along pre-defined routes, and with disabilities or who meet other As required by the Americans with and Howard counties, as provided without deviation. These modes of eligibility requirements. Disabilities Act (ADA), paratransit by the jurisdictions. In FY18, over 3.2 transit typically include local bus, services are provided by MDOT MTA, million paratransit trips were provided commuter bus, and rail services. All public transit agencies except Annapolis Transit, Harford LINK, and in Central Maryland. MDOT MTA Paratransit services (Figure 2-2) offer Baltimore City DOT provide RTA within three‑quarters of a mile provided 91 percent of the region’s flexible, call‑ahead transportation paratransit services (Figure 2-2). This of local fixed bus routes. General paratransit trips.

8 9 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Transit Network Analysis

Transit Service Integration Figure 2-5 shows trends in paratransit Figure 2-3 In Central Maryland, overlapping ridership for the region. Annual Bus Ridership Trends service areas provide opportunities ——————————————————— to transfer between the networks National Ridership of different transit services. Some Nationally, transit ridership has 80 16 70 78.9 14 locations in the region are served by trended downward since 2012, with 73.6 75.8 75.6 69.9 60 68.2 12 two providers, including Aberdeen, ridership falling in 31 of 35 major US 63.8 Columbia, and Savage. A few locations cities. Annual bus trips decreased 50 10

are served by three or more providers, from 5.4 billion in 2012 to 4.6 billion in 40 7.0 6.9 8 (millions) 6.2 5.8 including Annapolis, Arundel Mills, 2018 (15 percent). Rail trips increased 5.1 30 4.5 6 Core Bus 4.0 and Downtown Baltimore. from 4.7 billion in 2012 to 5.1 billion in Commuter Bus 20 4 Commuter Bus and LOTS Trips Trips LOTS and Bus Commuter 2018 (8.5 percent), but the amount of Core Bus Trips (millions) 4.3 LOTS 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 10 2 There is limited coordination rail service provided increased more Figures do not include 1 among the region’s public transit than rail ridership during this period. 0 0 Harbor Connector water providers. There are opportunities to 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 taxi service. increase or improve integration of While fixed-route transit trips have Figure 2-4 scheduling, sign and stop placement, decreased, trips taken through Annual Rail Ridership Trends transfer fares, and information transportation network companies ———————————————————

and wayfinding. The Baltimore (TNCs) such as Lyft and Uber have 18 15.4 Metropolitan Council is currently grown exponentially. TNC trips have 16 15.0 14.6 studying ways to improve integration increased from approximately 100 14 12.9 at key locations where customers million in 2012 to 4.2 billion in 2018. 11.2 12 10.2 9.2 9.4 9.1 9.3 make transfers between providers. Although Uber and Lyft have not 10 8.8 9.0 9.2 8.9 MARC Train reported 2019 figures, TNC trips in 8 Metro Subway 8.8 8.6 2019 likely surpassed both bus and 8.0 7.7 Light Rail Trips (millions) 6 Trends in Transit 6.9 7.2 7.4 rail, which provided 4.7 and 4.8 billion 4 Ridership trips respectively. Demand‑response 2 ——————————————————— paratransit demand has also 0 Central Maryland Ridership increased in recent years. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Within the Central Maryland region, total public transit ridership Gasoline prices have fallen in recent Figure 2-5 decreased 9 percent between FY17 years, from $3.68 per gallon in 2012 Annual Paratransit Ridership Trends and FY18, but recent trends in to $2.69 in 2019.2 The increased ——————————————————— fixed‑route transit ridership have affordability of gasoline is believed varied by mode. Figure 2-3 displays to have a negative effect on transit 2.5 2.1 bus ridership trends for Core Bus, ridership. 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.8 Locally Operated Transit Systems 1.7 Regions with Increasing Ridership 1.5 (LOTS), and Commuter Bus services. 1.5 Figure 2-4 displays ridership trends Some transit agencies are defying Mobility Call-A-Ride 1.0 0.8 for the Metro Subway, Light Rail, and national trends in fixed-route 0.7 LOTS Paratransit

Trips (millions) 0.6 0.6 MARC train, and MARC train, and ridership. These include Seattle King 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1 Accordingto the National Transit Database, rail transit vehicle revenue hours increased 11.3 percent and vehicle 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 revenue miles increasd 9.5 percent between 2012 and 2018. 2 Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices, U.S. Energy Information Administration.

10 11 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Transit Network Analysis

County Metro and Sound Transit, cannot drive themselves, such as Frequent transit routes are defined Future Conditions Pittsburgh Port Authority, Houston low-income residents, people with as having an average frequency of The Cooperative Forecast Committee Metro, and Austin CapMetro. These disabilities, or seniors. Therefore, a key 15 minutes or better over the 12-hour of the Baltimore Regional agencies are taking steps to help measure of the transit network is how period from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. on Transportation Board (BRTB-CFC) grow their system ridership, such as: many of the region’s total residents weekdays. Bus and rail stops along projects that Central Maryland will and transportation-disadvantaged frequent routes are within walking grow by 300,000 people and 440,000 • Implementing new service residents live or work within walking distance for: jobs by 2045. Further, this data shows and making investments like distance to transit. that while today’s population centers adding new rail lines, building • 19% of all residents will continue to grow, proportionally transit priority infrastructure, and Access to transit is measured for all • 38% of low-income residents more population growth will occur expanding bus service areas that are within a quarter-mile • 26% of residents with disabilities in areas that are currently less dense • Promoting transit through walk of bus stops or within a half-mile • 17% of senior residents and are not served by existing transit free‑fare zones or periods walk of light rail, subway, or commuter • 20% of households (Figure 2-8). If today’s transit services • Finding efficiencies through bus rail stations. The region’s population • 24% of jobs were the same in 2045, the proportion network redesigns that minimize and employment access to fixed-route of the population with walking access duplication transit is summarized in Figure 2-6. Transit Potential to fixed-route transit would decrease Public transit services are most to 36 percent of all residents, despite Access to Frequent Transit effective when they enable the most serving a greater number of people. Transit Network Central Maryland’s frequent transit people to travel where they need Coverage network (FTN) provides reliable, to go. Population and employment Similar to population growth, ——————————————————— efficient transportation along high densities are valuable measures of some of the areas with the greatest Fixed-route transit is most useful for demand corridors. Accessibility was the potential for productive transit percentage increase in jobs are those who can walk to their nearest measured for the bus and rail stops service. Transit potential represents outside of today’s largest job centers bus stop or rail station, since an that make up the FTN, which are the combined density of people and (Figure 2-9). If today’s transit system entire trip can be completed without concentrated on major roads and rail jobs, and is not only a good indicator were the same in 2045, employment another form of transportation. lines reaching from Baltimore City into for where transit investment should access to transit would decrease to Moreover, walking access to transit Anne Arundel and Baltimore counties. be prioritized, but is also increased by 45 percent of jobs in proximity to is crucial for people who may not These high-demand areas tend to be transit investment—people and jobs fixed‑route, despite a greater number have access to a personal vehicle or the densest parts of the region. tend to develop around high quality of jobs being served by transit. transit services. The effects of projected job and Figure 2-6 Today, the areas with transit population growth on travel patterns Access to Fixed-Route Transit supportive densities are generally will be discussed further in Section 3: ——————————————————— served by fixed-route transit (Figure Transit Market Analysis. 2-7 on the next page). However, some areas, such as Bel Air North, Crofton, and parts of Glen Burnie and Pasadena, are not currently served. Potential exists throughout the region for higher levels of service.

12 13 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Transit Network Analysis

Figure 2-7 Figure 2-8 Fixed-Route Transit Supportive Densities Percent Population Growth, 2020-2045

25-Year Percent Population Growth

14 15 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Transit Network Analysis

Figure 2-9 Span of Service Level of Service For each route, the span was Percent Employment Growth, 2020-2045 ——————————————————— measured in hours from the first For a transit service to be useful and arrival of the day to the final departure convenient, it must operate on the for a typical weekday, Saturday, and days and times passengers need it. Sunday. Therefore, the full picture of transit network coverage in Central Maryland Span of service varies across the must include how much service Central Maryland region. Most of is available within the service area Baltimore City and its inner suburbs throughout the week. The quantity have 24-hour or near 24-hour service of transit service provided to an area on weekdays (Figure 2-11), and some of is called level of service. It is typically these areas also have 24-hour service measured in two ways: on weekends (Figure 2-12 and Figure 2-13). Most areas within the Core Span measures the number of hours a Bus system have at least 18 hours of transit route operates on a given day. service every day, and at least 12 hours Frequency measures the number of of service on weekends. Outside of transit vehicles traveling in the same the region’s core, most transit service direction serving or passing by a stop operates between 12 and 18 hours on or station during a given period. (See weekdays, typically from the AM peak Figure 2-10 for an example.) to the PM peak. On weekends, span of service is often less than 12 hours or The level of service analysis was nonexistent. performed for Winter/Spring 2019 fixed-route services from the six Frequency of Service transit agencies in Central Maryland More frequent transit means less with fixed-route service in order to waiting for a bus or train to arrive, convey the distribution of service in which reduces travel times and each jurisdiction. increases convenience. The highest levels of frequency also increase

25-Year Percent Job Growth Figure 2-10 Span and Frequency Defined

SPAN FREQUENCY

• Represents the number of hours • Represents the number of buses operated on a given day passing a given point in a given • If the first trip is at 7:00 a.m. and time period the last is at 7:00 p.m., the span • If two buses pass a stop in an is 12 hours hour, the frequency is 30 minutes

16 17 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Transit Network Analysis

reliability, since riders can expect an High‑frequency transit is available Figure 2-11 arrival within a short period of time in most of Baltimore City during Weekday Span of Service without looking at a schedule. the peak periods, as well as during off-peak hours in the city’s core. Frequency was calculated for all Otherwise, frequencies in Baltimore locations by summing the total City and the suburbs served by Core number of arrivals at the stops Bus are typically 30 minutes or better. accessible from each location Outside the region’s core, most transit during a given hour. To prevent services have 60-minute frequencies. double‑counting, a route’s trips were Effective frequencies are higher at only counted once per location, and transit centers, where multiple routes the direction with the most trips was converge to increase the number of used to represent the number of trips arrivals per hour. for each route. To find how often, on average, a transit vehicle is available Level of Service Takeaways at each location, the total number Transit level of service in Central of trips is divided by the number of Maryland directly reflects the hours of service. For example, if three densities and levels of development buses arrive per hour, the frequency is in the urban, suburban, and rural 20 minutes. This number represents environments in each jurisdiction: effective frequency and assumes that all transit arrivals are equally useful. • Baltimore City and the beltway This approach is not a substitute for a suburbs have 24/7 service with network analysis of the level of service high frequency available between specified points of • The core areas of other jurisdictions interest. have less frequent service focused on the 12-hour workday Figure 2-14 through Figure 2-17 • Weekend service declines show transit frequency across significantly compared to weekday Central Maryland during select service hours in the AM peak, midday, and • Most areas outside of the region’s late night weekday periods, as well core lack evening, late night, and as the core period on Saturdays. weekend service

18 19 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Transit Network Analysis

Figure 2-12 Figure 2-13 Saturday Span of Service Sunday Span of Service

20 21 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Transit Network Analysis

Figure 2-14 Figure 2-15 Weekday AM Peak Frequency Weekday Midday Frequency

22 23 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Transit Network Analysis

Figure 2-16 Figure 2-17 Weekday Late Night Frequency Saturday Frequency

24 25 Transit Funding and State of Good Repair

Transit Funding approved by the Maryland General Federal discretionary grants Assembly via the 2013 Transportation are typically awarded through and State of Good Repair Infrastructure Investment Act. MDOT competitive processes. Examples of 3 MTA represents 30 percent of MDOT’s federal discretionary grants that have $30.2 billion, 6-year FY19-24 combined supported MDOT MTA funding needs capital and operating program. in the past include:

Transit agencies must regularly local governments contribute a much This share of statewide capital and • Better Utilizing Investments to review their finances and their greater percentage, usually 50 to operating expenditures remained Leverage Development (BUILD) fleets to balance the desire to invest 70 percent, to fund operations (not steady around 30 percent between Discretionary Grants, formerly appropriately in staff and vehicles to maintenance) of LOTS services. 2009 and 2019. Total TTF transit known as Transportation ensure quality of service delivery with spending in Maryland, combining Investment Generating Economic the realities of limited budgets. This Capital funding for transit in the region funds for MDOT MTA and WMATA, Recovery (TIGER) chapter reviews the operating and is roughly split equally between the represented 47 percent of MDOT’s • Grants for Buses and Bus Facilities capital expenses of the seven transit Maryland Transportation Trust Fund FY 19-24 six-year combined capital Program (Section 5339) agencies of Central Maryland, as well (TTF) and federal government sources. and operating program. • Congestion Mitigation and Air as their assets and the state of good Local government and other funding Quality (CMAQ) Improvement repair of those assets. sources (neither state nor federal) MDOT MTA receives both formula Program contribute 0.3 percent of capital funds and discretionary grants from The overwhelming majority of capital funding. Sources of capital funding the federal government to fund a Historically, federal funds have costs are dedicated to improving are documented in the annual MDOT portion of overall transit needs. supported various transit asset needs transit assets like vehicles and Consolidated Transportation Program. for MDOT MTA. These include vehicle facilities. Across the region, 80 percent Formula funds are granted in fixed replacement (buses, MARC cars, of the agencies’ assets (by value) All statewide funds dedicated amounts based on service area light rail vehicle overhaul, and Metro support rail services; LOTS assets to MDOT are deposited into the population and population density. cars); guideway rehabilitation; and make up 1.4 percent of the asset base. Transportation Trust Fund and The amounts of federal formula station and facility maintenance and Annually, MDOT MTA is prioritizing disbursements for all transportation grants apportioned to Central upgrades. an average of 98 percent of capital program and projects are made from Maryland have grown from under spending in the region to address the TTF. The TTF is funded through $120 million in 2013 to $150 million MDOT MTA is one of the few transit State of Good Repair needs. motor fuel taxes, motor vehicle titling in 2019 (4 percent per year). Some agencies that receives no local taxes, bond sales, other State revenues, examples of formula funds include: funding contributions. Salt Lake City Transit Funding and federal aid. Most of these TTF UTA is MDOT MTA’s only peer agency revenue streams lose their buying • Urbanized Area Formula Grants that also reports not receiving local in the Central power over time due to inflation. (Section 5307) funds both capital funding. Five of MDOT MTA’s peers Funds deposited in the TTF are not projects and some maintenance are funded almost exclusively through Maryland Region earmarked for specific purposes. There —————————————————— expenses local sources. Local contributions are almost always more transportation • State of Good Repair Grants include general revenues or dedicated Historically, approximately 75 percent needs than funds available. of operations and maintenance (Section 5337) funds projects to funding levied by agencies or local maintain and replace existing fixed governments. Sales tax and local (O&M) funding for MDOT MTA and MDOT’s six-year combined capital and LOTS combined is provided by the guideway and high intensity motor government general funds are the operating program is split among its bus (HIMB) assets and perform most common local sources. Most Maryland Transportation Trust Fund several Transportation Business Units (TTF). Federal and local governments preventative maintenance peer agencies draw upon two or more and WMATA. Expenditures across all of • Grants for Bus and Bus Facilities local funding sources. have contributed 5 percent or less to MDOT increased significantly between the combined O&M costs. However, (Section 5339) funds bus purchases, 2013 and 2019 due to new revenues bus replacement, and bus facilities

26 27 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Transit Funding and State of Good Repair

or other forms of MDOT debt. On the transit, even if the mechanisms are Figure 3-1 Current Spending other hand, alternative financing tends not formally recognized as a P3. Central Maryland Asset Base by Mode and Future Needs to include public-private partnerships For instance, some transit agencies ($ millions 2018) —————————————————— (P3s) involving a private equity and/or are partnering with new mobility Operating expenses for Central private debt. companies to achieve greater Maryland transit agencies totaled efficiencies. The city of Santa Monica, $704 million in FY 2018 ($858 million Alternative financing sometimes California, replaced its existing for MDOT MTA statewide). Operating requires the identification of a dial‑a‑ride paratransit program with expenses account for the cost of separate, dedicated funding source. on‑demand service through Lyft. management and administration, Due to the added complexity and risk The MBTA has also supplemented its O&M transit vehicles, collecting fares, allocation considerations, only certain ADA paratransit service with service and maintaining safety and security. projects are suitable candidates for provided by TNCs to reduce costs. MDOT MTA operating costs are alternative financing. While alternative While specific partnerships with TNCs driven by the costs of labor, including financing is an excellent tool in are not likely to result in new funding contracted service. the toolbox for delivery of transit or financing for public transit, they infrastructure assets, it is important may help to reduce costs in certain O&M costs are increasing with national to recognize that traditional financing areas. trends and faster than inflation. For and project delivery still plays a very fixed-route O&M, costs are increasing important role in most transportation 4 percent annually; for Mobility/ infrastructure. Assets Supporting Paratransit, costs are increasing Public Transit 7 percent annually, a rate that is Some recent examples of public transit —————————————————— projected to persist over at least the projects that have utilized alternative Central Maryland transit agencies These assets are vital to the continued next decade. finance and project delivery include: own or operate $9.4 billion in physical operations of public transit in assets. The distribution of these assets Central Maryland. Reinvestment Financing and • Larger Alternative Financing across the different modes is shown in these assets is required to keep Projects (>$150 million) in Figure 3-1. Bus includes Core Bus, them operating at high levels of Partnerships ̵ Purple Line Light Rail Transit P3 Commuter Bus, and assets that performance. For example, aging —————————————————— (Maryland) support LOTS bus services. Paratransit rail cars have both lower reliability in When considering how to fund ̵ Denver Eagle P3 (Colorado) includes Mobility, Call-A-Ride and terms of distance between failures transit, it is important to recognize ̵ Massachusetts Bay assets that support LOTS paratransit and higher corrective maintenance the differences between funding and Transportation Authority Fare services. MDOT MTA assets shown in costs. Replacing aging vehicles or financing. Funding refers to the cash Collection P3 this report do not include a majority rehabilitating them improves asset flows and revenue sources, whereas • Small to Medium-Sized Alternative of the MARC Train assets on the condition and service reliability. financing refers to the methods used Funding and Financing Projects Brunswick Line as those fall outside of to leverage future cashflows and (<$150 million) the Central Maryland region. ̵ Boston Landing Station: New State of Good Repair revenue sources, including financing —————————————————— commuter rail station and fund tools such as debt. When considering Overall, more than 80 percent of the State of good repair (SGR) addresses O&M for 10 years (Massachusetts) various financing tools, a distinction is assets (by value) support rail services the condition of transit infrastructure ̵ Dunwoody Station Extension: sometimes drawn between traditional including Metro Subway, Light Rail, and its ongoing maintenance to Provision of additional station financing and alternative financing. and MARC Train. LOTS assets make up provide safe, efficient, and reliable access (Georgia) Traditional financing tends to include 1.4 percent of the asset base, or about service. SGR focuses capital public sector debt mechanisms, such $132 million in value. investments on the replacement There are other ways that partnering as Consolidated Transportation Bonds and rehabilitation of aging assets to with the private sector may benefit

28 29 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Transit Funding and State of Good Repair

maintain service quality and minimize Figure 3-2). The needs vary each year, National State of Good Repair off-peak periods to accelerate the the cost of asset maintenance. both overall and by mode. Needs are SGR and underfunding are transit completion of necessary work. estimated based on the inventory of concerns nationwide. In 2017, However, it also reduced capacity and Recognizing the importance of existing transit assets and the lifecycle the American Society of Civil increased travel times. renewal, MDOT MTA is prioritizing plans for rehabilitation, overhaul, Engineers gave the country’s transit an average of 98 percent of annual capital maintenance, and/or infrastructure a grade of D-, the In 2017, New York’s governor signed capital spending to address SGR replacement of those assets. lowest grade for any category of an executive order declaring a state needs. The remaining 2 percent of infrastructure in the national report of emergency for the New York City capital spending will be used for The largest portion of SGR needs by card.1 The report cited chronic subways. This happened amid a period enhancements, including compliance asset category is driven by vehicles underfunding in preservation and of unreliable service and rush hour with current and future regulations, reaching the end of their useful replacement of existing assets as the malfunctions, and days after a train satisfying forecasted demand for life, planned fleet rehabilitations, lead cause of the $90 billion State of derailment. The executive order was a transit, and adaptation to new and overhauls. Over the 10-year Good Repair backlog. The current mechanism to more quickly provide technologies and mobility options. period between 2019 and 2028, this annual investment in preservation is money and other tools for immediate represents $1.7 billion (37 percent of so insufficient that, if maintained over repairs and system improvements: the As reported in the MDOT MTA SGR) in vehicle needs; $1.1 billion of the the next 20 years, the backlog would governor announced an additional $1 10‑Year Capital Needs Inventory & $1.7 billion has committed funding balloon by 36 percent to $122.2 billion. billion for capital improvements and Prioritization report, an estimated over the next six years. the temporary suspension of any laws $4.6 billion in SGR needs have MDOT MTA is not alone in that would hinder immediate work to been identified from 2019 to 2028. Similarly, the LOTS assets in experiencing rail service disruptions repair transit assets.2 This unconstrained value includes Central Maryland require periodic due to SGR work. With aging assets $1.5 billion in deferred capital replacement and rehabilitation. The but limited funding to address After a winter of severe weather in 2015, maintenance (“SGR backlog”) that 10-year unconstrained SGR needs for their assets’ needs, most transit the Massachusetts Bay Transportation is presented in the first year (see LOTS is estimated to be $112 million. agencies in the Northeast Corridor Authority’s repair backlog exceeded are finding they must prioritize $7 billion.3 The system experienced safety-critical investments. They have equipment breakdowns, canceled Figure 3-2 drawn on innovative solutions, or, trains, and some passengers were left Summary of MDOT MTA 10-Year SGR Needs ($ millions, YOE) when necessary, dramatic budget stranded. To address these issues, the rearrangements, to extend dollars T dedicated approximately 60 percent and achieve enhancements in the of its annual capital budget that fiscal near‑term. year to SGR issues.

For example, in 2016, the Washington The experiences of peers demonstrate Metropolitan Area Transit Authority that achieving and maintaining a (WMATA) introduced an accelerated SGR is a serious and widespread track work program called SafeTrack issue. MDOT MTA has responded by to improve safety and reliability on prioritizing an average of 98 percent the Metrorail system. The program of capital spending to address SGR increased maintenance time during needs.

1 American Society of Civil Engineers, Infrastructure Report Card, 2017. 2 Emma G. Fitzsimmons, “Cuomo Declares a State of Emergency for New York City Subways,” The New York TImes, June 29, 2017. 3 Bob Salsberg, “MBTA’s repair backlog climbs above $7 billion,” Associated Press, August 31, Capital costs are inflated at 3 percent annually. 2015.

30 31 Transit Market Analysis

Transit Figure 4-1 and Figure 4-2 show Existing and Projected the existing and future population Market Analysis Jobs and Population densities of the region using data 4 —————————————————— from the American Community The distribution of population and Survey 2013 to 2017 5-Year Estimates employment plays a determining and BRTB Round 9 forecasts for 2045, role when planning regional transit respectively. Figure 4-3 and Figure To evaluate how effective a transit The purpose of the market analysis is services. High-capacity transit is most 4-4 show the existing and future network is and to identify where to broadly identify the regions, activity efficient in dense, well-connected employment densities of the region investments should be targeted, it centers, and travel patterns that areas, while areas of low density or using data from the Longitudinal is essential to first determine where may be supportive of future transit disconnected jobs and residents Employer-Household Dynamics 2015 potential transit users live, where investment. Data sources include: pose greater barriers to cost-effective, survey and BRTB Round 9 forecasts they want and need to go, and how American Community Survey 2013 direct transit service. As population for 2045, respectively. those travel patterns may change in to 2017 5-Year Estimates and 2015 and employment growth alter the the future. This chapter examines the Longitudinal Employer–Household patterns of density across the region, Population density is expected to transit market in the Central Maryland Dynamics (LEHD) data from the Central Maryland’s transit providers increase throughout Baltimore region today and in the future. The U.S. Census Bureau; Baltimore must adapt to shifting demand County, as well as in Bel Air, Aberdeen, topics covered in this chapter are: Regional Transportation Board’s 2045 between these areas. Edgewood, Columbia, Laurel, Severn, population and employment model and Parole. Job density is expected • Existing Job and Population projections; and schedule data and According to projections from the to increase in Downtown Baltimore, Densities ridership counts from the transit BRTB-CFC, most of the region’s Owings Mills, Towson, Sparrows Point, • Projected Job and Population agencies operating in the study area. growth will occur outside of existing White Marsh, Aberdeen, the US 1 Growth areas of density, increasing the extent Corridor in Howard County, Elkridge, • Transit Supportive Markets Due to the range of population of transit-supportive communities and Fort Meade. • Transit Propensities densities and land uses across the and destinations in all five expansive study area, the specific jurisdictions. These characteristics are not the only needs of each jurisdiction within this conditions that drive the demand plan vary. However, many areas outside for transit; existing or planned land of Baltimore City and Baltimore uses impact transit demand as well. County demonstrate a strong or An area with high traffic congestion moderate market for transit services and limited parking or with a high but lack frequent connections to demand but that currently has a and from major job centers, such low level of service is more likely to as Arundel Mills and Columbia. attract transit riders and support Many of the suburban areas also transit service. Conversely, an area demonstrate demand for transit with minimal traffic congestion and services outside of peak hours that is ample, cheap (or free) parking at currently unmet, such as in Perry Hall major activity centers may have a and Crofton. In addition, the areas difficult time attracting transit riders with the lowest densities, such as and supporting transit service. Land Edgewood or Severna Park, may be use and zoning are discussed further good candidates for microtransit or in the Existing Plans and Land Use other demand‑response service pilots section. as opposed to fixed transit service that would increase access at a lower cost. Downtown Columbia (Photo Credit: Downtown Columbia Partnership)

32 33 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Transit Market Analysis

Figure 4-1 Figure 4-2 Table 4-1 Existing Population Densities Projected Population Densities Transit-Supportive Densities

Job and Population Level of Transit Demand Example Areas Density

Western Howard County, Northern Baltimore < 1 jobs + residents/acre Not supportive of transit County, Southern Anne Arundel County May justify alternative or new Edgewood, Severna Park, 1-5 jobs + residents/acre mobility solutions Middle River Justifies headways of 60 Owings Mills, Bel Air, Ellicott 5-14 jobs + residents/acre minutes or less City Downtown Baltimore, Justifies frequent and high 14+ jobs + residents/acre Towson, Columbia Town capacity transit Center

Figure 4-3 Figure 4-4 Transit-Supportive As discussed in the Transit Network Existing Job Densities Projected Job Densities Analysis section, most of the portions Areas of the study area that have five or —————————————————— more jobs, residents, or a combination The type and amount of land use in thereof per acre are already served a given area directly impacts transit by transit. However, outside of use or how supportive of transit Baltimore City and the inner suburbs an area might be. As development in Baltimore County, existing transit increases and diversifies, more transit does not meet the thresholds to and different types of transit can be qualify as “frequent” transit service. justified. Therefore, many transit and Service often only operates hourly, planning agencies produce guidelines and weekday evening service or that align transit to land use for weekend service can be limited or planning purposes. Table 4-1 provides non-existent. However, there are an overview of the expected support areas where there is already sufficient of transit in the study area based on demand and land use types to job and population densities. support additional service.

34 35 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Transit Market Analysis

Figure 4-5 Figure 4-6 Transit-Supportive Densities Components of Hybrid Indices

patterns, transit routes, and transit Transit Propensity level of service to help evaluate the —————————————————— need or demand for transit service Transit propensity is an analysis used at the block group level and to to indicate the strength of a transit develop recommendations for transit market in different areas. Transit service modifications or additions of propensity analysis combines a broad transit service. Each of the primary array of data sources into indices that indices are comprised of one or more identify where the highest propensity A transect showing the types of land use found in Central Maryland and the general “analysis factors” (Table 4-2). guidelines of what type or types of transit service are suitable for that specific land use. for transit use exists. Every census block group in the study area receives In addition to the four primary indices, a unique score in each propensity there are two hybrid indices that Projected Change in Population and are not currently served by transit. index and is then ranked relative to combine multiple analysis factors in Job Densities (2045) Employment growth is also expected the study area. There are four primary order to identify where the highest Over the next 25 years, many new to be concentrated in the suburbs in propensity indices: propensity for transit use exists at parts of the region will be able to the next 30 years. As of 2016, about specific times of day (Figure 4-6 and support micromobility, fixed-route half of the region’s 1.24 million jobs • Transit-Oriented Populations Table 4-3). For example, an office park transit, or high capacity transit were served by existing transit. By Origin Index with a high density of jobs may have services. As of 2016, 40 percent of the 2045, the BRTB-CFC expects an • Commuter Origin Index a high employment destination index study area’s 2.55 million people lived additional 440,000 jobs to be created, • Workplace Destination Index score, but this high level of demand in areas served by transit. By 2045, the with about 46 percent not accessible • Activity Destination Index may exist only at peak commuting BRTB-CFC expects the study area’s by existing transit. With this growth, times due to the lack of other activity population to grow by nearly 300,000 the region’s transit network will need These indices are designed to be generators in the area. people, with 55 percent of this growth to expand its coverage to serve these visualized and combined with other occuring in suburban areas that new transit-supportive areas. information about trip and travel

36 37 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Transit Market Analysis

Table 4-2 Transit-Oriented Population are employment in the sectors Analysis Factors used for Primary Transit Propensity Indices Origin Index represented by these categories (e.g., The transit-oriented population index the recreation category contains consists of six categories: population, data sets from the entertainment Index Analysis Factor age, households, income, vehicle sector and the recreation sector). Population ownership, and disabled persons. The employment by sector data sets The data sets that contribute to serve as proxies for how much travel Age these categories are all indicative demand businesses that fall into Transit-Oriented Population Households of higher population or household these sectors would produce, and Origins Income density, or persons that are likely to therefore, this index is indicative of Vehicle Ownership be more reliant on transit. Therefore, where people make non-work trips. this index is indicative of where Disability Status transit‑dependent populations live Peak Period Index Labor Force (Figure 4-7). The peak period index for each Commuter Population Origins Non-Single Occupancy Vehicle (SOV) block group is calculated by finding Commute Mode Commuter Origin Index the Commuter Population Origins Employment Destinations Employment The commuter origin index consists Index score and the Employment Primary Indices Primary Retail & Restaurant of two categories: labor force and Destinations Index score, and then commute mode. Employed persons, using the higher of those two Recreation commuters, and transit commuters values. This hybrid index (Figure 4-11) Activity Destinations Healthcare & Social Assistance all contribute to this index, which is uses both where people live and Education indicative of where traditional peak where they work within the region Government hour commuters live, and where to determine where the highest those that currently use transit to propensity for transit during the commute live (Figure 4-8). traditional “peak” commuting times.

Table 4-3 Employment Destination Index All-Day Index The employment destination index The all-day index for each block Analysis Factors and Datasets used for Hybrid Transit Propensity Indices has a single category: employment. group is calculated by finding the Total employment and employment Transit-Oriented Population Origins Index Analysis Factor density contribute to this index, score and the Activity Destinations which is indicative of where people score, and then using the higher of Higher of Commuter Population Origins or Employment Peak Service commute to for work purposes those two values. When combined Destinations Scores (Figure 4-9). in to the single all-day index, one can Higher of Transit-Oriented Population Origins or Activity see which areas have the highest Hybrid Hybrid Indices All-Day Service Destinations Scores Activity Destination Index propensity for transit service over the The activity (non-work) destination course of the entire day (Figure 4-12). index has five categories: retail/ restaurant, recreation, healthcare/ social assistance, education, and government. These categories are weighted based on the typical trip purpose proportions for transit commuters (Figure 4-10). The data sets that make up these categories

38 39 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Transit Market Analysis

Figure 4-7 Figure 4-8 Transit-Oriented Population Origin Index Commuter Origin Index

The largest number of employees likely to commute using transit live in In Central Maryland, most of these areas are already served by transit, although urban residential areas well served by frequent transit during the daytime the span of service and frequency of the service outside of peak periods can be hours as well as routes that operate nearly 24 hours a day. However, outside lacking in some of these areas outside of Baltimore City. of Baltimore and its close-in suburbs, transit is often unavailable to workers on who are not on a typical 9-to-5 schedule, as many routes lack weekday evening or any weekend service.

40 41 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Transit Market Analysis

Figure 4-9 Figure 4-10 Employment Destination Index Activity Destination Index

Many of these areas show high transit propensity scores due to the presence of healthcare or shopping centers at these locations; these are activity centers that have workers and visitors arriving and departing throughout the day The areas with high propensity scores include major shopping centers, each day. While most of the areas with moderate or high scores have transit healthcare centers, higher education institutions, and regional county seats. service, workers who are not on a typical 9-to-5 schedule may not be able to rely on transit as many routes lack weekday evening or any weekend service.

42 43 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Transit Market Analysis

Figure 4-11 Figure 4-12 Peak Period Index All-Day Index

Densely populated urban areas have the highest peak period propensity. The areas with the highest all-day propensity are broadly distributed across Areas with all-day activity centers, such as hospitals and shopping centers, Baltimore City, while many suburbs of Baltimore County have moderate levels have lower scores on this index than on other indices since this index of all-day propensity. Nearly all of these areas are served by transit for over 20 emphasizes commuters with jobs that are likely to adhere to a typica 9-to-5 hours a day seven days a week, with service provided every 15 minutes or better schedule on weekdays. Therefore, these areas most often have transit access on weekdays on many routes. However, many of the areas with moderate at peak periods. propensity or low propensity only have weekday service or infrequent service that operates only once or twice an hour and can hinder transfers.

44 45 Travel Flow Analysis

Travel Flow commute trips are the same every Overview of Regional day (ensuring consistent ridership on Analysis Travel Patterns commute‑oriented services). 5 —————————————————— Every day, millions of trips are made Overall, 55 percent of Central throughout Central Maryland and Maryland commuters work in the the surrounding areas. Commute jurisdiction they live in. Table 5-2 Transit providers offer service to Central Maryland’s metropolitan trips make up a significant portion shows how many existing commuter meet the needs of many types of planning organization, the Baltimore of daily trips and are a key market for trips from each jurisdiction end in passengers. For those who use Regional Transportation Board transit. Work is a primary need for other jurisdictions. In all jurisdictions transit to commute, direct and often (BRTB), maintains a regional travel many passengers and an economic except Howard County, a majority long-distance connections are the demand model that represents all priority for the region, jobs are of commutes begin and end in that most important aspects of a service. trips starting and ending within the often found in concentrated areas same jurisdiction. For those who rely on transit for all region or in nearby areas, including (increasing transit productivity), and transportation, it is critical that transit Carroll County and parts of the greater can get them from home to their Washington, D.C. metropolitan area. places of work, school, shopping, The trip tables in this model use recreation, healthcare, or other existing travel, population, and land services. use data to predict travel behavior Table 5-2 and estimate the number of trips Proportion of Existing Commute Trips between Jurisdictions In order to create a plan for transit between traffic analysis zones by that connects all passengers with purpose, mode, and time period. their destinations, MDOT MTA and the From transit agencies of Central Maryland The RTP evaluates travel patterns at Anne Baltimore Baltimore Harford Howard must understand where people go. the regional and jurisdictional level, Arundel City County Travel flow analysis reveals the most for both today and the plan horizon in Anne 60% 6% 6% 3% 11% common origins and destinations 2045. The focus for transit will be on Arundel for travel in the region and, when key trip generators throughout the Baltimore 8% 62% 29% 14% 10% combined with transit market region, which attract and produce City analysis, helps to evaluate how transit large volumes of trips to and from a Baltimore 4% 21% 51% 21% 8% services can best meet demand today single area. These generators are found County and into the future. in each jurisdiction, as shown in Table To 5-1. Harford <1% 1% 2% 58% <1% Table 5-1 Howard 7% 4% 6% 2% 42% Largest Key Trip Generators in Each RTP Jurisdiction

D.C. Region 22% 5% 5% 2% 27% Anne Arundel Baltimore Baltimore Harford Howard County City County County County Note: Percentages represent the proportion of trips from the “From” jurisdiction. Darker Ownings Mills/ Annapolis Bayview Aberdeen Columbia figures represent higher percentages. Due to rounding, not all columns add to 100 percent. Reisterstown

Fort Meade Downtown Towson Bel Air Ellicott City

Glen Burnie/ Port Covington Sparrows Point Edgewood Pasadena

46 47 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Travel Flow Analysis

Figure 5-1 Central Maryland Existing Commuting Travel Flows

Figure 5-1 shows the volume Home-based work trips: of commute trips that cross • Within each county, high volumes jurisdictional borders in Central of commuters travel to that Maryland. The greatest commute flow county’s employment centers that crosses a border occurs from • Residents from all over the Baltimore County into Baltimore City. region commute into Downtown Many commutes also cross into or out Baltimore of the Central Maryland to the D.C. • Most residents live within proximity region and Pennsylvania. of their workplaces • Commute volumes are the Trip Purpose greatest in areas with high Since most trips do not cross population and job density jurisdictional lines, more detail is required to understand travel patterns Non-home-based work trips: for shorter distances. Analysis of flows • Trips are more evenly distributed between regional planning districts, throughout the region which are areas of comparable size, • Most significant travel flows occur allows for the necessary level of in the densest areas (Columbia, detail. Within these districts, flows are Towson, Annapolis) separated into two purpose‑related • There is also a high volume of categories: home-based work trips travel connecting northern Anne (HBW), which are typical work Arundel County, eastern Howard commutes, and non-home-based County, and southern Baltimore work trips (non-HBW), which cover County any other trip purposes. The following • It is harder to discern strong trends patterns emerged for the two or patterns for travel in Baltimore categories of trips: City, likely because the city’s high density means there is a much higher volume of trips

Graphic by Baltimore Metropolitan Council. Data source: U.S. Census Bureau, American HBW trips are visualized in Figure 5-2 Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2012-2016: County-to-County Commuting Flows. and non-HBW trips are visualized in Figure 5-3.

48 49 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Travel Flow Analysis

Figure 5-2 Figure 5-3 Region: Home-Based Work Trips Region: All Trips Other Than Home-Based Work Trips

50 51 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Travel Flow Analysis

Figure 5-4 Figure 5-5 Regional Mode Split (Home-Based Work Trips) Region: Home-Based Work Transit Trips

Source: BRTB Travel Demand Model, 2012

Mode Split Home-based work transit trips: The major travel patterns for the • While overall work trips, across different modes of motorized all modes, focus on the many transportation are varied according employment centers, the transit to the available modal infrastructure work trips are more concentrated and the transportation needs of the to and from central Baltimore typical users of each mode. Personal vehicles dominate as the mode Non-home-based-work transit trips: of choice for most trips in Central • Overall, the patterns and Maryland (Figure 5-4). Transit trips, distribution of non-work transit which include local bus, commuter trips are similar to non-work trips bus, and rail modes, form a smaller on other modes part of the region’s travel patterns and • Flows are distributed across Anne exhibit transit‑specific characteristics. Arundel, Howard, and Baltimore These existing transit use patterns Counties, with the strongest inform planning decisions on where volumes occurring in Ellicott City to provide transit in the future. and Columbia • Harford County also experiences Figure 5-5 shows the most significant high volumes of non-commute transit flows within the region for transit trips in Bel Air and home-based work transit trips and Edgewood Figure 5-6 shows non-home-based • The most transit trips in Baltimore work transit trips. The following occur within the central part of the patterns emerged for the two city, while volumes throughout the categories of trips: rest of the city are spread across many origins and destinations

52 53 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Travel Flow Analysis

Figure 5-6 Key Trip Generators also shows the expected future trip Region: All Transit Trips Other Than Home-Based Work Trips The regional travel flow analysis generators with the greatest increase reveals several key trip generators in trip volumes from today. While in each of the five Central Maryland travel demand will increase in most jurisdictions (Figure 5-7). These areas parts of the region, greater demand are most often characterized by high increases in these areas reflect density of either population, jobs, or significant population growth or both. They may also draw people to plans for large developments that will other places such as school, recreation create new housing and jobs and thus activities, or public services. require new transit. These new key trip generators include Port Covington, the Based on BRTB-CFC’s forecasts, US 1 corridor near Laurel and Savage, there will be new generators of trips Elkridge, Sparrows Point (Tradepoint that influence travel patterns across Atlantic), and White Marsh and the entire region in 2045. Figure 5-7 Crossroads development on MD-43.

Figure 5-7 Key Current and Future Trip Generators

54 55 Existing Plans and Land Use

Existing Plans State Incentive Programs transit or provide increased eligibility The Central Maryland region has for projects related to transit. A and Land Use several active state-designated summary of the programs is provided 6 incentive zones. Many of these in Table 6-1: incentives are directly associated with

Table 6-1 | Maryland Transit-Related Incentive Programs • Roadway System Operations Regional Planning • Roadway System Preservation —————————————————— • Transit System Operations The Opportunity Zone program is a nationwide initiative Coordinating transit planning efforts • Transit System Preservation administered by the U.S. Treasury created under the 2017 Tax at the regional level with local land • Major Capital Projects Cuts and Jobs Act to provide federal tax incentives for capital use plans ensures that regional Opportunity investment in distressed communities over the next 10 years. The investments and interventions Zones state was entitled to nominate 149 low-income census tracts to The Maximize2045 plan proposes 74 are working in harmony with local be Opportunity Zones. The Maryland Department of Housing major roadway and transit capital growth goals. Though existing and Community Development will administer the program with projects with an estimated cost of transit services are a major driver support from the Maryland Department of Commerce. $12.162 billion. Major transit capital of growth in the region, areas of projects for the region include: proposed major growth do not always align with existing transit networks. In 2008 the Maryland legislature adopted a formal definition for • Anne Arundel County: bus rapid State incentive programs to attract Designated TOD as “a dense, mixed-use, deliberately planned development transit from New Carrollton to within a half-mile of transit stations that is designed to increase development in targeted areas may Transit- Parole Oriented transit ridership.” Transit-oriented developments promote the also not correspond to existing transit • Baltimore City: MARC train Development efficient use of land and transportation infrastructure with higher service. The Plan reviewed and storage and maintenance facility, Areas density and comprising a mix of residential, office, commercial, evaluated major planning documents Penn-Camden Connector, West (TOD Areas) and civic uses in a pedestrian friendly environment within walking affecting the Central Maryland Baltimore MARC station relocation distance of a transit station. region to identify areas of planned • Howard County: bus rapid transit growth that may require additional to BWI Airport, bus rapid transit on investment in transit services. US 1 Corridor, bus rapid transit on The State’s Sustainable Community program is a geographic US 29 Corridor designation to more efficiently allocate and concentrate resources Maximize2045 to support coordinated revitalization efforts. Jurisdictions submit • Harford County: MDOT MTA BRTB Maximize2045: A Performance- a plan that consists of a specific geography and a broad set of commuter bus service to Based Transportation Plan lists Sustainable revitalization goals that support housing, transportation, economic downtown Baltimore, Transit major medium- and long-term Communities development and neighborhood revitalization and strategies to Signal Priority on MD 22 and MD capital transportation projects for achieve these goals. Sustainable Communities should be within 924, Transit Oriented Development the Baltimore region through 2045. or near a town center or transportation center. Designation as a at the Aberdeen MARC Station Sustainable Community is required to be eligible for related grant Maximize2045 also allocates funds programs. for operations and preservation of transportation systems in the region, and establishes the region’s broad Priority Funding Areas are existing communities and places where transportation goals and performance local governments want State investment to support future growth. measures. Maximize2045 is a fiscally Priority The 1997 Priority Funding Areas Act capitalizes on the influence constrained plan, with funding Funding of State expenditures on economic growth and development. allocated into the following categories: Areas Funding for projects in municipalities, other existing communities, industrial areas, and planned growth areas designated by counties receive priority State funding over other projects.

56 57 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Existing Plans and Land Use

The BRTB-CFC projects 81 percent of Transit Needs Land Use Planned Growth population growth in Anne Arundel • Three major corridors, Routes 2, 3, The county’s 16 Small Area Plans —————————————————— County to take place outside of areas and 50, need high‑quality transit provide the most information about Each of the five jurisdictions in served by existing transit. Roughly 17 options county land use plans. Most of these the Central Maryland region percent of population and households • Funding for pedestrian plans, however, are outdated and have a comprehensive plan to in the county are projected to be improvements may not reflect current priorities to guide long‑term growth. These within walking distance of existing • Transit to connect travel demand focus growth along older corridors, comprehensive plans identify growth transit in 2045, about the same to areas outside the region, where small parcel sizes and areas for each jurisdiction. MDOT MTA proportion as is currently served by particularly to DC and Northern numerous property owners create also met with stakeholders from each existing transit. (Walking distance Virginia redevelopment challenges. jurisdiction to identify and confirm is considered to be a quarter-mile • Park and Rides to facilitate planned local growth areas as part of for bus stops and a half-mile for rail suburban residents’ access to Move Anne Arundel!, the county’s the RTP planning process. The next stops.) transit draft Transportation Master Plan, section describes planned growth • Envisioned transit center in Parole prioritizes investment in “mature areas by jurisdiction in more detail. The BRTB-CFC projects 78 percent of • Reduced auto use to Fort Meade/ areas” through improvements job growth in Anne Arundel Country NSA to major state-owned roadways, Anne Arundel County to occur outside of areas served by • More transit is needed to attract increased transit service, and retrofits existing transit. Though job growth amenities from developers to roads to create shared-use paths Land Use and in northern Anne Arundel County is and protected bicycle lanes. Growth Areas focused in areas served by MARC and —————————————————— Light Rail, the county’s only frequent Growth Areas transit services, only 25 percent of Anne Arundel County adopted the jobs in the county would be served by General Development Plan in 2009, existing transit by 2045. and an update is underway. Anne Arundel County planning Anne Arundel County is organized officials identified the following into Small Planning Areas, with plans growth/focus areas and priority transit for each area tailored to address the needs at a July 2019 meeting: specific needs of the area. Plans for Brooklyn Park and Glen Burnie focus Growth/Focus Areas on attracting investment to revitalize • Odenton Town Center/MARC older commercial corridors and station area provide needed community facilities • NSA/Fort Meade and infrastructure. South County and • Annapolis/Parole Town Center Crownsville small area plans focus on • Glen Burnie Town Center retaining the rural character of the • Light Rail Stations, Cromwell areas and preserving sensitive natural • Marley Neck environments. Providing adequate • Laurel Race Track MARC area public services and multimodal transportation connectivity are high priorities in Jessup and Odenton, which have experienced recent growth. A customer loads a bike onto the front of an MDOT MTA bus.

58 59 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Existing Plans and Land Use

Land use plans for Odenton Town Baltimore City also relies on a stated goal is to “foster growth and Center, Parole Town Center, and number of plans prepared by other development while maintaining Baltimore County Arundel Preserve Town Center city agencies and institutions. neighborhood character.” The plan Land Use and Growth encourage the creation of jobs and The Department of Housing established four new TOD zoning mixed-use development in areas and Community Development’s categories: Areas walkable to transit. Framework for Community —————————————————— Development recommends major • TOD-1: Restrictive height limits and Growth Areas Plans for BWI/Linthicum encourage public investments in transit centers a limited retail use mix Baltimore County’s comprehensive revitalization of existing commercial and neighborhoods that “offer • TOD-2: Restrictive height limit but plan, Master Plan 2020, identifies districts, preservation of forested near-term opportunities to achieve a full mix of uses growth areas in Owings Mills, Middle area adjacent to residential uses, and inclusive, economically sustainable • TOD-3: Significant height with a River, and Towson. The plan identifies buffers between off-site airport uses growth.” limited retail use mix employment centers along the and existing communities. • TOD-4: Significant height and a full Light Rail/York Road corridor, and in The BRTB-CFC projects most growth mix of uses Dundalk, Rosedale, and Woodlawn. The Odenton Town Center Master in Baltimore City by 2045 to occur These areas are mostly served by Plan concentrates development and within areas already served by transit. TOD-4 areas are concentrated frequent bus, with a sub-area of zoning regulations and guidelines By 2045, 86 percent of the city’s around the West Baltimore MARC, Owings Mills and the York Road to promote a pedestrian‑friendly population and 85 percent of its jobs the Cultural Center, Westport and corridor also served by rail transit. The transit‑oriented development center are projected to be within existing Cherry Hill Light Rail Stations, Penn Middle River Redevelopment Area near the Odenton MARC rail station. transit service areas. Station, and north of Johns Hopkins and most of the Owings Mills growth Bayview. A recent zoning code area, however, are not served by Land Use update introduced the possibility frequent transit. Baltimore City Land Baltimore City’s land use patterns vary of TOD-3 upzoning in Upton and based on the prevailing transportation Penn‑North Station areas. Other Light Population growth projections from Use and Growth Areas the BRTB-CFC show proportionally —————————————————— modes of the time in which an area Rail and Metro Subway stations are large increases outside of the plan’s Growth Areas was built. The city’s intricate networks surrounded by more restrictive TOD designated growth areas in the Most areas of Baltimore City already of connected streets in pre-industrial designations. north, east, and southwest corners of have transit-supportive levels neighborhoods around Inner Harbor Baltimore County. Many of these areas of density. Many of the region’s were built when walking was the The Southeast Strategic Transportation are not served by existing transit. highest‑demand destinations are predominant form of transportation. Vision plan recommends that Job projections more closely align located within the city. LIVE, EARN, Electric streetcars, introduced to the Transportation Management with the growth and employment PLAY, LEARN: A Business Plan for a city in 1885, allowed the city to extend Associations (TMAs) manage designated areas with significant World-Class City, the city’s most recent radial arterials and create suburban transportation demand in Harbor increases along the York Road comprehensive master plan, defines neighborhoods west and north of East, Canton, and beyond. The plan corridor, downtown Owings Mills, achievable goals for each of the plan’s job centers around the harbor and mentions the “A Smarter Way to Get Middle River, and Dundalk; job growth subject areas. These goals include: downtown. Most of the city is built There” program organized by the and organized at transit-compatible Waterfront Partnership as a model for is also projected for Woodward. Some job growth areas, such as the • Adapt Baltimore’s housing stock to scales, with densities above 15 TMAs in the city. area northeast of Middle River, the changing residential demands residents or jobs per acre, connected north end of the York Road corridor, • Meet the employment needs of blocks, sidewalks, and neighborhood and most of Woodward, are outside Baltimore’s resident and grow key commercial centers. of existing transit. Only 38 percent employment sectors of jobs in Baltimore County will be • Enhance cultural and TransformBaltimore, adopted in served by existing transit networks, entertainment amenities 2017, is the city’s first comprehensive down from 40 percent. • Improve schools and libraries rezoning plan since 1971. The plan’s

60 61 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Existing Plans and Land Use

Baltimore County planning and Proposed future transit-supportive Planning and economic development the unincorporated community of economic development officials land uses mostly align with proposed officials from Harford County, the Emmorton, around the intersection identified the following additional growth areas in Baltimore County. T5 Town of Bel Air, the City of Havre of MD 924 and Abingdon Road, growth/focus areas and priority transit Urban Center density (as defined in de Grace, and the City of Aberdeen and around the intersection of needs at a July 2019 meeting. the transect diagram in Figure 4-5) identified the following additional Philadelphia Road and Riverside is mostly located along corridors, growth/focus areas and priority transit Parkway (which is also situated Growth/Focus Areas including York Road, Route 1, Route needs at a July 2019 meeting. between Mixed Office and Industrial/ • TOD around the former General 40, and Route 26. Outside corridors, Employment concentrations). Low Services Administration Depot T5 is also located at Middle River, Growth/Focus Areas and Medium Intensity Residential near Martin State Airport Oakleigh, Woodlawn, Catonsville, • In-migration from more rural parts zoning is spread across the • US 1 Guinness Lansdowne/ Halethorpe, and White of the county Development Envelope. The Town of • UMBC Research Park Marsh. The only T6 Urban Core • Bel Air MD 24 corridor Bel Air, the City of Havre de Grace and • Sparrows Point designation in Baltimore County is in • Harford Community College the City of Aberdeen each designate • Trade Point Atlantic Towson. Most of these areas are also • Aberdeen/Aberdeen Proving their own zoning categories. • LaFarge site near Middle River served by frequent transit; however, Ground (APG) the T6 designation in Towson has only • US 40 (Employment)/Perryman Harford County Planning / Economic Transit Needs frequent bus transit, not rail. Development officials, including • More direct transit connections Transit Needs representatives from the City of within the county • Route 22 between Bel Air and Aberdeen and the Town of Bel Air, • Pedestrian and complete streets Harford County Land Harford Community College, indicated interest in responding improvements Use and Growth Areas Aberdeen proactively to ongoing growth • Moving from free parking to priced —————————————————— • Transit priority and crossing safety near Harford County Community parking in strategic locations Growth Areas treatments on MD 924 near College, and along US 40, particularly • Solution for Halethorpe MARC Harford County adopted Harford Next Harford Mall near Perryman. Additionally, the parking shortage in 2016. The plan proposed a modest • Connecting Harford Transit’s City of Aberdeen is planning for • CountyRide expansion to fixed 0.36 percent increase to the county’s service to MTA near the US 40 transit-oriented development near route service Development Envelope, reinforcing corridor its Amtrak/MARC Station area to the county’s policy to focus growth • Crossing the commuter rail gap promote growth and investment Land Use and protect natural and rural places, between MARC in Perryville and through regulation, and incentives, Baltimore County’s Master Plan 2020 established in 1977. The county’s SEPTA in Newark such as waiving minimum parking organizes future land use according preservation effort has largely been requirements, adopting form-based to a rural-to-urban transect with successful, as 91 percent of residential Land Use code, and giving parking credits six zones. Natural and rural zones development since 2013 has occurred Harford County defines land use to developers who implement on the transect are located outside within the Development Envelope. categories for Agricultural, State and transportation demand management the Urban-Rural Demarcation Line County Parks, Low, Medium, and measures. (URDL), while suburban and urban The BRTB-CFC projects 94 percent High Intensity Residential, Industrial/ zones are located inside the URDL. of the county’s population growth Employment, Mixed Office, Rural Officials indicated that several County policy focuses redevelopment by 2045 to occur outside of areas Villages, and Aberdeen Proving key locations are difficult to serve inside the URDL to allow greater currently served by transit. The CFC Ground, which is not subject to local efficiently with transit due to site density, reduce vehicle miles traveled also expects 20 percent of new jobs in land use rules. design, such as Harford Mall and the (VMT) and greenhouse gas emissions, the county to be within areas served strip commercial corridors on US 40 and accommodate population and by existing transit, slightly increasing Areas designated for High Intensity and MD 22. employment growth. the share of jobs in the county served Residential use (above seven units per by transit to 19 percent. acre) are concentrated at the edge of the town of Bel Air, in and around

62 63 Existing and Future Conditions Technical Report Existing Plans and Land Use

respectively. The only areas in Howard Land Use County served by high‑capacity PlanHoward 2030 categorizes county transit are the areas surrounding the land by Growth Tiers identified in county’s four MARC stations. Maryland’s 2012 Sustainable Growth and Agricultural Preservation Act. Howard County and Columbia Areas west of the PFA have Low Association planning, public works, Density and Rural Resource land transportation, and economic use designations, except for an area development officials identified the planned for water service extension following additional growth/focus just west of the county’s PFA. Areas areas and priority transit needs at a east of the PFA are organized in July 2019 meeting: Established Community and Growth and Revitalization designations, Growth/Focus Areas with the latter expected to focus • Downtown Columbia especially on jobs, housing and • Route 1 Corridor mixed-use redevelopment. Most of • Snowden River Parkway the land designated as Growth and RTA buses serve Howard, Anne Arundel, and northern Prince George’s counties. • Maple Lawn Revitalization is currently single-use • Emerson (North Laurel) and relatively low-density. • Turf Valley to ensure alignment of the county’s • Route 40 Corridor Many areas along the county’s major Howard County Land transportation goals with the goals of • Columbia Village Centers highways and arterials are developed Use and Growth Areas this plan. as business parks and employment —————————————————— Transit Needs districts or strip commercial areas. Growth Areas PlanHoward 2030 designates areas • US 29 Corridor connection to Downtown Columbia and the Route Howard County adopted its general for Growth and Revitalization to focus Silver Spring with connections to 1 corridor, where development has plan, PlanHoward 2030, in 2012 and on stimulating economic activity in Downtown Columbia, Fulton, and been particularly active, has been amended it in 2018. According to the existing commercial areas and older Maple Lawn the focus of many recent planning plan, most growth within the county communities. These areas include • Transportation demand efforts. Design guidelines have been has occurred within the county’s Columbia’s Downtown (including the management at the neighboring established for the Route 40 Corridor, Priority Funding Area (PFA) and is Mall and Symphony Woods), older University of Maryland, Baltimore and a major redevelopment of the consistent with the 2012 Sustainable Village Centers, the Route 1 corridor County Laurel Racetrack area introduces a Growth and Agricultural Preservation east of I-95, the Route 40 corridor, • US 1 Corridor, with six nodes dense mixed-use plan in the vicinity Act requiring land to be classified and older industrial areas such as the or opportunity areas for of the MARC station. Many new according to established Growth Tiers. Snowden River Parkway area south of redevelopment focus and possible developments in the county include MD 175. increases in jobs/residents higher density uses, transforming The county is currently working on • North Laurel/Laurel Park Racetrack single-use districts into more another plan update to address The BRTB-CFC projects that most area mixed‑use environments, and concerns about the quality new growth in Howard County will • Models to enhance development improve conditions for travel via foot, and character of development, occur outside of areas currently review to increase transit bicycle, and transit. neighborhood infill, adequacy served by transit. The percentage of compatible amenities from new of public infrastructure, and population and jobs served by the investment environmental protection. The county existing transit network by 2045 is also is still developing initial plan concepts, projected to hold steady at current presenting an excellent opportunity levels of 25 percent and 38 percent,

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