They're Heeere!

THE BIG STORY / SEPTEMBER 2018

They’re Heeere! AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES NO LONGER SCIENCE FICTION THE BIG STORY

15 Years in the It’s official. Making 7 Autonomous vehicles are a reality. What’s an Autonomous Operating along a 1-mile (1.6- for the vehicle’s Level 4 (geo- Vehicle km) route in downtown Detroit, fenced) autonomous drive sys- 10 purpose-built AVs are now in com- tem. The vehicles themselves are mercial use, shuttling up to 500 converted to 6-passenger people workers daily from parking lots to carriers by contract assembler Help Wanted: their offices in buildings scattered and parts supplier Magna at its Regulatory about a small section of the city. facility in Troy, MI. 16 The vehicles, converted Polariss GEM neighborhood electric vehi-- cles, can travel at speeds up to Timetables 25 mph (40 km/h), but traffic andd 19 stoplights put the average at lesss than 20 mph (32 km/h). The project is the work of May Cover caption: Mobility, an Ann Arbor, MI-based Mercedes-Benz tech start-up that is responsible May Mobility’s Detroit shuttle. F 015.

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Waymo to Putting them to use are a couple “This is no longer a science proj- put 60,000 of companies run by Dan Gilbert, ect,” May Mobility Chief Operating Chrysler Pacifica AVs owner of the NBA’s Cleveland Officer Alisyn Malek declares into service. Cavaliers and a local businessman ahead of a ribbon-cutting cere- who is helping to lead Detroit’s mony that launched the service in downtown renaissance. June. “This is real transportation.” For now, a person is aboard to Of course, May Mobility is far drive the shuttle if necessary, but from alone in the pursuit of AV the plan is to eventually remove the technology and associated busi- T-bar steering mechanism and ped- ness models. als and simply monitor the vehicle Other pilot programs are in remotely from May Mobility’s place at college and corporate operational center located in campuses and along public roads the shadows of General Motors’ throughout the U.S. and world. Detroit headquarters. Waymo, a division of Google The company foresees expanding parent Alphabet, is purchasing its service to other corporate cam- more than 60,000 Chrysler Pacifica puses and municipalities soon. Hybrid minivans from FCA US and

WARDSAUTO 4 | SEPTEMBER 2018 THE BIG STORY

GM ready to deploy Chevrolet Bolts without steering wheels and pedals.

20,000 I-Pace battery-electric have near-term targets as well, vehicles from Jaguar Land Rover including Hyundai, Volkswagen for AV mobility services it will offer and Volvo. in Phoenix, Atlanta and potentially GM forecasts that once ride- other U.S. markets beginning later hailing costs fall below $1 per this year. GM is planning to place mile in 2025 from $2-$3 today – Chevrolet Bolt battery-electric in part from removing the driver vehicles, sans steering wheel and – mobility services will account pedals, into mobility service in for 20% of the miles driven and a 2019. $750 billion annual market. Profit Ride-hailing firms Uber and Lyft margins in the sector are predict- also are working toward deploy- ed to be double the return from ment of AV fleets. Mercedes has selling a vehicle. similar plans for 2020, and BMW In a recently released report, and Ford are aiming to place self- “The Autonomous Vehicle driving vehicles into mobility proj- Roadmap,” Wards Intelligence ects by 2021. Other automakers looked at where the market is

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Today’s AVs O T O

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headed, when it will arrive and 15 Years who among traditional automakers and suppliers and non-tradi- in the Making tional disruptors will lead the way. A car that drives itself has been Spoiler alert: Don’t expect fully the vision of futurists almost autonomous vehicles to arrive in since the automobile was invent- dealer showrooms anytime soon. ed, but the concept didn’t begin AVs are unlikely to make a huge to exhibit real potential until the impact on transporting people turn of the century. near-term, beyond the limited That’s when the U.S. Defense mobility-scheme applications and Advanced Research Projects some sophisticated highway-pilot Agency (DARPA), formed amid the features for retail-car buyers. Sputnik frenzy in 1958 to close the Package transport represents a technology gap with Russia, host- much better business case for AV ed its first Grand Challenge event. developers over the next few years. The 2004 contest called on

WARDSAUTO 7 | SEPTEMBER 2018 THE BIG STORY

Progress came developers to produce a vehicle driving Audi TT navigated the quickly, as five vehicles that could travel on its own along twisting 12.4-mile (20-km) road to made it to the a 150-mile (240-km) stretch of the top of Pikes Peak, CO, in a run finish in the Interstate 15 from Barstow, CA, to that took just 27 minutes. DARPA Grand the Nevada border. A winner went Now the industry is entering a Challenge’s second year. undeclared after not a single second stage in the autonomous- entrant made it to the 8-mile (13- vehicle era, where the focus is km) mark. moving beyond the systems and But rapid progress followed. software needed to make AVs The next year, five vehicles fin- work and toward creation of new ished the course. Five years later, profit centers made possible by Italy’s University of Parma oper- this emerging technology. ated an autonomous car 9,940 “We’re having true business miles (16,000 km) through nine discussions now – less so of ‘Let countries before ending its jour- me show you what we can do,ʼ” ney in Shanghai. In 2012, a self- Danny Shapiro, senior director-

WARDSAUTO 8 | SEPTEMBER 2018

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automotive for chipmaker NVIDIA, drive anywhere, anytime with- told The Wall Street Journal on the out an operator. The industry sidelines of CES 2018 in Las Vegas. is firmly into Level 2 today with such advanced driver-assistance technologies as lane-keeping and What’s an adaptive cruise control that still Autonomous require the full attention of the human driver. Vehicle But a movement toward Level 3 The SAE has defined six levels is under way, most notably with of autonomous technology, start- the introduction of highway pilot ing with Level 0, meaning no technology such as the Audi automated features, and topping Traffic Jam Assist system offered off at Level 5 with a car that can in Europe. Level 3 marks the

WARDSAUTO 10 | SEPTEMBER 2018 THE BIG STORY

Level 3 highway-pilot technology best near-term opportunity for automakers to monetize their AV R&D.

hands-off/eyes-off stage, where will take faster, more accurate the vehicle pilots itself on the decision-making and require new highway from entrance ramp to electronics architectures designed exit without requiring attention around the concept of sensor from the driver. fusion, Audi officials say. It is important to note the Audi Suppliers, including Aptiv, system is not all the way there yet. Visteon, Aurora, Magnetti Marelli, Some industry insiders refer to it Mentor Graphics, Baidu, Zenuity as a Level 2.5, because it is lim- and Magna, are working on ited to speeds of up to 39 mph (63 single multi-domain controllers km/h). A full Level 3 system should designed to collect data from be able to function at maximum vehicle sensors tied to steering, freeway speeds and possibly braking, radar, vision and other even beyond today’s posted lim- systems and crunch the informa- its. Achieving those high speeds tion at high speed to determine

WARDSAUTO 11 | SEPTEMBER 2018

THE BIG STORY

Autonomous Ford Fusion undergoes testing by Uber in San Francisco.

the vehicle’s path forward. The still needs to improve overall, as move to a centralized processor evidenced by the March 2018 inci- is expected to cut onboard micro- dent in which a pedestrian was controllers to just a handful, from struck and killed by a self-driving a typical 60-80 today. Uber test vehicle (Volvo XC90) in By SAE definition, Level 4 is a Tempe, AZ. The event has height- vehicle without a steering wheel ened concern about whether or pedals (or where such driver automated-driving technology is controls become inoperable) that up to the task. Take AVs out of the can travel autonomously, but rather ideal climate of Arizona and only within a geofenced area. This their ability to perform consistent- is the type of vehicle headed for ly becomes even less certain. use in ride-hailing services such In part, interest in AVs is being as Waymo’s or Lyft’s. driven by a desire to reach zero Undoubtedly, AV performance fatalities worldwide, meaning

WARDSAUTO 13 | SEPTEMBER 2018 THE BIG STORY

AVs will require automated driving must be safer lightning speed. At 70 mph (113 computing power than human driving if the technol- km/h), Lawande points out, a car beyond the ogy is to reach critical mass. That’s travels nearly 200 ft. (60 m) every supercomputer a tough task, particularly when two seconds and takes about 330 speeds of a decade ago, it comes to the vehicle reacting ft. (100 m) to come to a complete, Visteon says. quickly and properly in the one-in- comfortable (non-panic) stop. a-million situations that are likely “It’s true that 90% of accidents to arise, making Level 5 capability are caused by driver (error), so far from certain. intuitively you say, of course, an Visteon CEO Sachin Lawande autonomous car is safer,” Daimler notes some of the technical chal- CEO Dieter Zetsche says. But in lenges ahead in a presentation to between those accidents, “the a 2017 Baird investor conference. human being is doing a damn For AVs to be safe, he said, they good job. To avoid these acci- must be able to detect objects at dents…is not that difficult (for least 650 feet (200 m) ahead and autonomous cars). But to become determine the way forward with as good as a human being in

WARDSAUTO 14 | SEPTEMBER 2018 MOVE FORWARD.

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the in-between is a damn tough per second, more than 10 times task.” the speed of processors used in Making the leap from Level 2 initial AV test applications, for to Level 4 AVs will take a 40-fold example. increase in processing horsepow- er, from 500 gigaflops today to Help Wanted: as much as 20 teraflops, Visteon says. Even a more basic Level 3 Regulatory highway-pilot system will require As noted, a key goal of AV devel- a still-considerable 10 teraflops of opment is to reduce vehicle-relat- computing capacity, a level that ed fatalities, which number about exceeds supercomputer speeds of 1.25 million annually worldwide, just a decade ago. including nearly 40,000 in the U.S. “The automotive industry has Consultancy KPMG projects driv- never packed as much processing erless vehicles could halve acci- power in the car as they are about dent frequency by 2030. to get into,” Visteon’s Lawande But the industry is looking for tells Wards, adding liquid cool- more input and movement from ing may be needed to dissipate policymakers worldwide, because the enormous heat generated by without decisions on testing and these high-capacity domain con- certification, automakers can’t trollers. get to the first stages of AV and Such computing power isn’t in advanced-ADAS rollout. production today for use in vehi- General Motors, for instance, cles, but more powerful automo- is still waiting for approval of a tive-grade microprocessors are waiver request that would allow coming. its Chevrolet Bolts without steer- NVIDIA’s latest-generation ing wheels to operate on U.S. DrivePX platform, also known as roads. Audi has not targeted Pegasus and to be available for release of its highway pilot sys- commercial testing this year, is tem in the U.S. yet, citing regula- capable of 320 trillion operations tory uncertainties.

WARDSAUTO 16 | SEPTEMBER 2018 THE BIG STORY

The government has not provided enough guidance/regulations to date for autonomous vehicles. PERCENTAGE 2018 2017 100

0 All Systems / Components / Vehicle Dealership / Respondents Parts Manufacturer Retail Source: Wards Intelligence 2018 Autonomous Vehicle Trends Survey

Beyond safety standards, poli- fatality will have on regulation cymakers potentially could take and policy, but even prior to that actions that would incentivize the event there was growing impa- market for AV technology, begin- tience over the lack of action and ning with Level 3 systems. High- consistency. occupancy-vehicle (HOV) lanes In a Wards Intelligence survey could be converted into high- conducted in August 2017, 32.9% speed AV lanes, a move that likely of respondents said the govern- would help spur sales of highway- ment was providing adequate pilot technology, for instance. guidance. But in a follow-up sur- It is unclear how much of a chill- vey in February 2018, that figure ing effect the Uber pedestrian dropped to 20.7%. OEMs appear

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What will be the greatest obstacle to widespread adoption of fully autonomous vehicles?

Other Giving up 9.8% control 29.0% Cost 6.6%

Cybersecurity 6.8% Trust 29.0% Safety 18.9%

Source: Wards Intelligence 2018 Autonomous Vehicle Trends Survey

the most frustrated, with 83.5% widely exposed to the technology. saying not enough was being But so far, trends have been less done. In the most recent poll, than favorable. 70.6% said government regula- A survey by Deloitte finds 62% tion was vital to further develop- of Chinese consumers don’t ment of AV technology. believe AVs will be safe, and that’s the best result of the six coun- Timetables tries polled. In South Korea, 81% of consumers expect automated Consumers remain fickle, and a vehicles to be unsafe, followed true read on market acceptance by Japan (79%), the U.S. (74%), of AVs probably won’t be possible Germany (72%) and India (64%). until the public becomes more A 2017 AAA survey shows only

WARDSAUTO 19 | SEPTEMBER 2018 THE BIG STORY

When will individual consumers adopt autonomous cars?

PERCENTAGE OF RESPONDENTS 50

0 2020-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 After 2040 Source: Wards Intelligence 2018 Autonomous Vehicle Trends Survey

13% of U.S. drivers would feel less in China ($700) and Germany safer sharing the road with self- ($360), the consultancy says. driving vehicles, with 46% indicat- In its report, Wards Intelligence ing they would feel less safe. identifies two main channels for Deloitte also says individual monetizing AV investment, retail consumers won’t want to spend and fleet, with the fleet path much on the technology, finding branching off in multiple direc- U.S. buyers willing to pay only tions around people-focused about $925 extra for automated- mobility services and package- driving capability, far below the moving commercial operations. expected cost of about $5,000 in With the expected long run-up 2030. Willingness to pay is even ahead before full Level 5 AVs are

WARDSAUTO 20 | SEPTEMBER 2018

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Global ADAS Penetration by 2030 (Esimated market size in 2030 is $80-95 billion)

Level 0 Level 1 3% 24%

Level 5 7% Level 2 22%

Level 4 23% Level 3 21%

Source: Magna

in the hands of individual car buy- had,” says Swamy Kotagiri, chief ers in appreciable numbers, it will technology officer at auto sup- be important for automakers and plier Magna. “In spite of all the suppliers to monetize their invest- (AV) discussions, the (ADAS) pen- ments in advanced technology in etration rate still is in the single stages by offering retail buyers digits, and in the foreseeable new ADAS and safety features. future there is a huge amount This already is beginning to hap- of demand (that will come) from pen on luxury models with such there. systems as GM’s Super Cruise and “And once the consumer starts Audi’s Traffic Jam Assist. getting a little bit more com- “I am personally of the opinion fortable and the market starts there is a significant prolifera- emerging, (that) will actually drive tion of Levels 1, 2 and 3 still to be the next step towards autonomy.”

WARDSAUTO 22 | SEPTEMBER 2018 THE BIG STORY

Who will be the first adopters of autonomous vehicle technology?

PERCENTAGE OF RESPONDENTS 50 SYSTEMS/COMPONENTS/PARTS VEHICLE MANUFACTURER DEALERSHIP/RETAIL OTHER

0 Commercial Taxis/ Ride sharing Car sharing Personal Other vehicles ride-hailing companies companies transportation companies Source: Wards Intelligence 2018 Autonomous Vehicle Trends Survey

Magna forecasts the ADAS mar- location, then return when sum- ket, including Level 4 and 5 tech- moned to pick up the driver. nologies, at $80 billion-$90 billion Level 5 vehicles won’t become worldwide in 2030. available to retail customers By 2023, robo-parking is likely before 2030, the report concludes. to be made available to indi- “The technology goes fast, so it’s vidual car buyers as well, Wards extremely hard to forecast,” Dennis Intelligence predicts. This tech- Nobelius, CEO of Zenuity, a soft- nology would allow the vehicle to ware joint venture between Volvo locate an available public park- Car and supplier Autoliv, says of ing spot and drive itself to the Level 5 autonomy. “But I don’t see

WARDSAUTO 23 | SEPTEMBER 2018 AI IN AUTOMOTIVE REPORT $UWLÀFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFHLVSRLVHGWREHFRPHWKH SLORWRIWRPRUURZ·VDXWRQRPRXVYHKLFOHV7KLV VSHFLDOUHSRUWIURP:DUGV,QWHOOLJHQFHGHÀQHV 2018 TECHNOLOGY STRATEGIES REPORT DQGH[DPLQHV$,WHFKQRORJ\HVWLPDWHVZKHUH WKHLQGXVWU\VWDQGVLQLWVGHSOR\PHQWSRWHQWLDO DSSOLFDWLRQVEH\RQGDXWRQRP\DQGWKH WUHPHQGRXVFKDOOHQJHWUDGLWLRQDO2(0VDQG VXSSOLHUVIDFHLQUDPSLQJXSWKHLUH[SHUWLVHLQ WKHÀHOG

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it in the next five to 10 years.” casts Level 4 and higher AVs will Magna’s Kotagiri agrees: “It’s a make up about 10% of global long way away (to) purely Level 5.” new-vehicle sales by 2030, or A strong business case can be about 10 million units. made for Level 4 geofenced tech- So, who is leading the race? nology in the light-commercial Among the three dozen companies vehicle sector in the 2020-2021 evaluated in the Wards Intelligence timeframe. Schemes to move report, five automakers and six packages around in driverless suppliers/disruptors rose to the vehicles face fewer hurdles than top. Automaker’s making the those designed to move human report’s A grade include: BMW, passengers, where consumer Daimler, GM, Renault-Nissan- comfort levels and user experi- Mitsubishi and Volkswagen. Others ence issues come into play. landing in the top tier are Aptiv, The additional cost of AV tech- Bosch, Continental, Hitachi NVIDIA nology could be offset somewhat and Waymo. in cargo vehicles by taking out But it is a race. And, as the May content associated with a human Mobility project proves, more driver that no longer is required. jockeying for the lead is likely Commercial transport companies as AVs begin to roll out in bigger also could more easily offset the numbers. WWAA technology costs if there is a corre- sponding reduction in labor needed. This is a sector Silicon Valley This story startup Nuro is aiming at with a was written self-driving pod designed to carry by Wards up to 250 lbs. (113 kg) of cargo. Executive “Unmanned delivery will be Director- a game-changer for local com- Content David merce,” Nuro cofounder Dave E. Zoia. Ferguson predicts. He can be In all, Wards Intelligence fore- reached at [email protected]

WARDSAUTO 25 | SEPTEMBER 2018 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE REPORT Rapid advancements in technology, including more sophisticated radar, vision and lidar sensors; the expanding capacity and capability of microcontrollers; faster-responding actuators and controllers; and the promise of machine OHDUQLQJYLDFRPSOH[DUWLÀFLDOLQWHOOLJHQFH driven software, has the auto industry on a march toward automated driving.

This report examines those issues, along with: +RZDQGZKHQWKHPDUNHWZLOOWDNHVKDSH worldwide :KHUHWKHEHVWQHDUWHUPEXVLQHVVFDVHVDUH with retail customers, commercial-vehicle operators and mobility-service providers :KLFKDXWRPDNHUVDQGVXSSOLHUVGLVUXSWRUV will emerge as the dominant players in this new industry sector

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