They're Heeere!
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THE BIG STORY / SEPTEMBER 2018 They’re Heeere! AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES NO LONGER SCIENCE FICTION THE BIG STORY 15 Years in the It’s official. Making 7 Autonomous vehicles are a reality. What’s an Autonomous Operating along a 1-mile (1.6- for the vehicle’s Level 4 (geo- Vehicle km) route in downtown Detroit, fenced) autonomous drive sys- 10 purpose-built AVs are now in com- tem. The vehicles themselves are mercial use, shuttling up to 500 converted to 6-passenger people workers daily from parking lots to carriers by contract assembler Help Wanted: their offices in buildings scattered and parts supplier Magna at its Regulatory about a small section of the city. facility in Troy, MI. 16 The vehicles, converted Polariss GEM neighborhood electric vehi-- cles, can travel at speeds up to Timetables 25 mph (40 km/h), but traffic andd 19 stoplights put the average at lesss than 20 mph (32 km/h). The project is the work of May Cover caption: Mobility, an Ann Arbor, MI-based Mercedes-Benz tech start-up that is responsible May Mobility’s Detroit shuttle. F 015. WARDSAUTO 2 | SEPTEMBER 2018 Allow Engines to Breathe. Maximize Pure Airflow. Tune Sound on Demand. Temperature Resistance. Longevity. Maximum Performance. Sound Design. www.roechling.com THE BIG STORY Waymo to Putting them to use are a couple “This is no longer a science proj- put 60,000 of companies run by Dan Gilbert, ect,” May Mobility Chief Operating Chrysler Pacifica AVs owner of the NBA’s Cleveland Officer Alisyn Malek declares into service. Cavaliers and a local businessman ahead of a ribbon-cutting cere- who is helping to lead Detroit’s mony that launched the service in downtown renaissance. June. “This is real transportation.” For now, a person is aboard to Of course, May Mobility is far drive the shuttle if necessary, but from alone in the pursuit of AV the plan is to eventually remove the technology and associated busi- T-bar steering mechanism and ped- ness models. als and simply monitor the vehicle Other pilot programs are in remotely from May Mobility’s place at college and corporate operational center located in campuses and along public roads the shadows of General Motors’ throughout the U.S. and world. Detroit headquarters. Waymo, a division of Google The company foresees expanding parent Alphabet, is purchasing its service to other corporate cam- more than 60,000 Chrysler Pacifica puses and municipalities soon. Hybrid minivans from FCA US and WARDSAUTO 4 | SEPTEMBER 2018 THE BIG STORY GM ready to deploy Chevrolet Bolts without steering wheels and pedals. 20,000 I-Pace battery-electric have near-term targets as well, vehicles from Jaguar Land Rover including Hyundai, Volkswagen for AV mobility services it will offer and Volvo. in Phoenix, Atlanta and potentially GM forecasts that once ride- other U.S. markets beginning later hailing costs fall below $1 per this year. GM is planning to place mile in 2025 from $2-$3 today – Chevrolet Bolt battery-electric in part from removing the driver vehicles, sans steering wheel and – mobility services will account pedals, into mobility service in for 20% of the miles driven and a 2019. $750 billion annual market. Profit Ride-hailing firms Uber and Lyft margins in the sector are predict- also are working toward deploy- ed to be double the return from ment of AV fleets. Mercedes has selling a vehicle. similar plans for 2020, and BMW In a recently released report, and Ford are aiming to place self- “The Autonomous Vehicle driving vehicles into mobility proj- Roadmap,” Wards Intelligence ects by 2021. Other automakers looked at where the market is WARDSAUTO 5 | SEPTEMBER 2018 CHANGEDRIVEN OUR FORWARD-LOOKING TECHNOLOGIES WILL SUSTAINABLY CHANGE TOMORROW’S MOBILITY. EXPERIENCE OUR INNOVA- TIVE SOLUTIONS FOR COMBUSTION ENGINES, HYBRID AND ELECTRIC DRIVES. TECHNOLOGIES BY RHEINMETALL. SOLUTIONS FOR A CHANGING WORLD. WWW.US.RHEINMETALL-AUTOMOTIVE.COM THE BIG STORY PH Today’s AVs O T O trace their CO start back PYRI to the 2004 G HT © DARPA Grand G Challenge, in IMA ETTY which not a single entry G E made it past S the final mark. headed, when it will arrive and 15 Years who among traditional automak- ers and suppliers and non-tradi- in the Making tional disruptors will lead the way. A car that drives itself has been Spoiler alert: Don’t expect fully the vision of futurists almost autonomous vehicles to arrive in since the automobile was invent- dealer showrooms anytime soon. ed, but the concept didn’t begin AVs are unlikely to make a huge to exhibit real potential until the impact on transporting people turn of the century. near-term, beyond the limited That’s when the U.S. Defense mobility-scheme applications and Advanced Research Projects some sophisticated highway-pilot Agency (DARPA), formed amid the features for retail-car buyers. Sputnik frenzy in 1958 to close the Package transport represents a technology gap with Russia, host- much better business case for AV ed its first Grand Challenge event. developers over the next few years. The 2004 contest called on WARDSAUTO 7 | SEPTEMBER 2018 THE BIG STORY Progress came developers to produce a vehicle driving Audi TT navigated the quickly, as five vehicles that could travel on its own along twisting 12.4-mile (20-km) road to made it to the a 150-mile (240-km) stretch of the top of Pikes Peak, CO, in a run finish in the Interstate 15 from Barstow, CA, to that took just 27 minutes. DARPA Grand the Nevada border. A winner went Now the industry is entering a Challenge’s second year. undeclared after not a single second stage in the autonomous- entrant made it to the 8-mile (13- vehicle era, where the focus is km) mark. moving beyond the systems and But rapid progress followed. software needed to make AVs The next year, five vehicles fin- work and toward creation of new ished the course. Five years later, profit centers made possible by Italy’s University of Parma oper- this emerging technology. ated an autonomous car 9,940 “We’re having true business miles (16,000 km) through nine discussions now – less so of ‘Let countries before ending its jour- me show you what we can do,ʼ” ney in Shanghai. In 2012, a self- Danny Shapiro, senior director- WARDSAUTO 8 | SEPTEMBER 2018 THE BIG STORY automotive for chipmaker NVIDIA, drive anywhere, anytime with- told The Wall Street Journal on the out an operator. The industry sidelines of CES 2018 in Las Vegas. is firmly into Level 2 today with such advanced driver-assistance technologies as lane-keeping and What’s an adaptive cruise control that still Autonomous require the full attention of the human driver. Vehicle But a movement toward Level 3 The SAE has defined six levels is under way, most notably with of autonomous technology, start- the introduction of highway pilot ing with Level 0, meaning no technology such as the Audi automated features, and topping Traffic Jam Assist system offered off at Level 5 with a car that can in Europe. Level 3 marks the WARDSAUTO 10 | SEPTEMBER 2018 THE BIG STORY Level 3 highway-pilot technology best near-term opportunity for automakers to monetize their AV R&D. hands-off/eyes-off stage, where will take faster, more accurate the vehicle pilots itself on the decision-making and require new highway from entrance ramp to electronics architectures designed exit without requiring attention around the concept of sensor from the driver. fusion, Audi officials say. It is important to note the Audi Suppliers, including Aptiv, system is not all the way there yet. Visteon, Aurora, Magnetti Marelli, Some industry insiders refer to it Mentor Graphics, Baidu, Zenuity as a Level 2.5, because it is lim- and Magna, are working on ited to speeds of up to 39 mph (63 single multi-domain controllers km/h). A full Level 3 system should designed to collect data from be able to function at maximum vehicle sensors tied to steering, freeway speeds and possibly braking, radar, vision and other even beyond today’s posted lim- systems and crunch the informa- its. Achieving those high speeds tion at high speed to determine WARDSAUTO 11 | SEPTEMBER 2018 THE BIG STORY Autonomous Ford Fusion undergoes testing by Uber in San Francisco. the vehicle’s path forward. The still needs to improve overall, as move to a centralized processor evidenced by the March 2018 inci- is expected to cut onboard micro- dent in which a pedestrian was controllers to just a handful, from struck and killed by a self-driving a typical 60-80 today. Uber test vehicle (Volvo XC90) in By SAE definition, Level 4 is a Tempe, AZ. The event has height- vehicle without a steering wheel ened concern about whether or pedals (or where such driver automated-driving technology is controls become inoperable) that up to the task. Take AVs out of the can travel autonomously, but rather ideal climate of Arizona and only within a geofenced area. This their ability to perform consistent- is the type of vehicle headed for ly becomes even less certain. use in ride-hailing services such In part, interest in AVs is being as Waymo’s or Lyft’s. driven by a desire to reach zero Undoubtedly, AV performance fatalities worldwide, meaning WARDSAUTO 13 | SEPTEMBER 2018 THE BIG STORY AVs will require automated driving must be safer lightning speed. At 70 mph (113 computing power than human driving if the technol- km/h), Lawande points out, a car beyond the ogy is to reach critical mass.