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Office Savills Research Shanghai – July 2020 MARKET IN MINUTES Office Savills Research Savills team Please contact us for further information RESEARCH James Macdonald Senior Director China +8621 6391 6688 james.macdonald@ savills.com.cn COMMERCIAL Cary Zheng Senior Director Central China +8621 6391 6688 Leasing activities recover cary.zheng@ savills.com.cn Site inspections pick up in the second quarter, though it will still take time to Peter Sheng translate into transactions. Senior Director • Shanghai’s actual FDI increased by 4.5% year-on-year (YoY) while the citywide vacancy rate rose by 0.5 of a percentage Shanghai in the first five months of the year, with the city remaining point (ppt) to 17.4%. +8621 6391 6688 one of the most attractive investment destinations in China. peter.sheng@ savills.com.cn • Demand decentralisation continues as companies look • Some companies are stepping up cost control measures to reduce mid-to long-term operational costs. Leading Leon Fu including layoffs, other fixed cost reductions and decentralised locations saw vacancy rates fall in Q2/2020 Senior Director surrendering office space. due to lack of supply and good demand, such as Qiantan (-1.5 Shanghai ppts), Houtan (-2.5 ppts), and HTH (-1.6 ppts). +8621 6391 6688 • Just two projects, 104,800 sq m, were handed over in [email protected] 1H/2020. However, another 784,100 sq m is scheduled to launch in the remainder of 2020, bringing total Grade A Savills plc Savills is a leading global real office stock to 14.2 million sq m. estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. The company established in 1855, has • Leasing activities picked up in Q2/2020, though net take-up a rich heritage with unrivalled “Despite contracting by 6.7% growth. It is a company that leads totalled just 14,200 sq m, compared to 150,000-200,000 rather than follows, and now has over 600 offices and associates sq m in a typical quarter. Only half of the 25 business areas in the first quarter, the city’s throughout the Americas, Europe, recorded positive net take-up in Q2/2020. Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East. This report is for general economy has shown signs of a informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or • Citywide Grade A office rents fell 4.0% in Q2/2020, the worst rebound in activity and is still quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any quarterly performance since the Global Financial Crisis, contract, prospectus, agreement expected to record full-year or other document without prior consent. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, growth as businesses get back Savills accepts no liability Definitions whatsoever for any direct or Core prime: Nanjing Road (W), Huaihai Road (M), Lujiazui to normal and the government consequential loss arising from its Core non-prime: Old Huangpu, South Huangpu, Hongqiao, North Station, North Bund, use. The content is strictly Zhuyuan and Xujiahui. copyright and reproduction of the Decentralised markets: All areas outside of the core markets including Changfeng, lends a helping hand.” whole or part of it in any form is Hongqiao Transportation Hub, Xuhui Riverside, Xinzhuang, Zhenru, Wujiaochang, Former prohibited without written Expo, Qiantan, Houtan and Huamu. JAMES MACDONALD, SAVILLS RESEARCH permission from Savills Research. savills.com.cn/research 1 Office MARKET OVERVIEW abilities should come out of this period in GRAPH 1: Grade A Office Overall Supply, Take- Two new Grade A office projects, Expo better shape than others. Tenants should take up And Vacancy, 2015 to 1H/2020 Riverfront Centre (North Tower) and the opportunity to reassess their corporate Lujiazui Riverside Centre (H1), were handed real estate footprints by identifying new Supply (LHS) Take-up (LHS) Vacancy (RHS) over in Q2/2020, adding a total of 104,800 sq ways of working for their organisation, new 2.4 24% m of office space to the market. Several other opportunities in the market and trying to lock projects were postponed amid continued in cost savings for the mid-to long-term. For uncertainties and weak leasing sentiment. some, this may be looking at decentralised 2.0 20% The city’s Grade A office stock totalled 13.4 locations, consolidation of office locations million sq m by the end of Q2/2020. or adopting more agile workplaces with both core and flex space. 1.6 16% The Expo Riverfront Centre is located on the former Puxi Expo site in Huangpu District MARKET OUTLOOK About 784,100 sq m of new office space is 1.2 12% with easy access to Xizang Road (S) metro station (Line 4, Line 8). The 46,800 sq m scheduled to launch in 2H/2020, including North tower was handed over while the a 260,000- sq m self-use project. Demand million million sq m 0.8 8% South tower is still under construction and is expected to recover as economic clarity scheduled for completion in 2021. and confidence improve, and as government support starts to bear fruit and office costs 0.4 4% Leasing activity picked up in Q2/2020, become more affordable. though net take-up totalled just 14,200 sq m, compared to 150,000-200,000 sq m in a Demand from certain sectors such as 0.0 0% typical quarter. Prime areas saw 44,100 sq m healthcare, financial and IT/Tech sectors will 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1H/2020 of space handed back to the market, though be boosted in the long run, while companies financial institutions and law firms continued in industries such as mass-market consumer Source Savills Research to expand in Lujiazui, such as Zhenghan Law and hospitality prioritise cutting costs, Firm’s 2,400 sq m in Ruiming Tower. Strong placing downward pressure on occupancy demand from the consumer sector allowed rates and rents in areas where they tend to Nanjing Road (W) to record an expansion in cluster. demand, such as L’Oreal’s lease of the entire 23,000 sq m of Jing’an Baohua Centre. Co-working operators affected by lockdowns in the first quarter are witnessing a rebound GRAPH 2: Grade A Office Rental Indices,Q3/2015 Rising demand from certain sectors and in demand as business activity picks up and companies, unfortunately, was offset by the firms (big and small) look to take advantage to Q2/2020 fact that a number of companies were looking of the flexibility and no fit-out cost offered by to downsize operations or, in some cases, flexible space operators. Stronger operators Overall Prime Non-prime Decentralised looking to shut down operations completely, are also looking to taking over space from 190 though these were primarily smaller wealth weaker peers while also reaching out to new management and consulting enterprises. landlords that need to fill their office building 180 This, combined with the addition of new to secure favourable lease/management/profit 170 projects, caused the citywide vacancy rate to share agreements. rise by 0.5 of a ppt in Q2/2020 to 17.4%. 160 Shanghai is stepping up efforts to boost 150 As landlords continued to increase rental the development of the 873 sq km Lingang concessions, Grade A office effective rents Special Area, as evidenced by more favourable 140 fell by 4.0% in Q2/2020 on an index basis, measures in recent months, covering talent retention, taxation, housing, land planning, Q2/1999=100 to an average of RMB7.5 per sq m per day. 130 Face rents remained roughly the same industrial clusters, transportation networks 120 while landlords offered more rent-free and and urban public services. These preferential fitout subsidies. Larger anchor tenants, in policies and innovations have already 110 particular, were offered more favourable prompted some companies to establish their terms and bigger discounts. business in the area, though it may still take 100 years for the area to mature. Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 The last six months have been a challenging 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 time for landlords and tenants alike. Lingang’s development, together with the Landlords need to prioritise communication accelerating expansion of the Yangtze River Source Savills Research and tenant relationships to avoid tenant Delta (YRD) economic cluster, will certainly losses while also working closely with attract more domestic and international property management teams to ensure health enterprises to establish/expand businesses in and safety standards and quality services. the Shanghai market. Landlords that prioritise management GRAPH 3: Grade A Office Vacancy,Q3/2015 to TABLE 1: Notable Leasing Transactions, Q2/2020 Q2/2020 Overall Prime Non-prime Decentralised TENANT TENANT PROJECT BUSINESS LEASED AREA 40% INDUSTRY DISTRICT (SQ M) 35% Commercial & New Bund PwC Professional Centre Qiantan 30,000 30% Services 25% Ningbo Commerce Lujiazui Bank Finance Riverside Centre Yangjing 10,000 20% 15% World Trade Takeda Healthcare Centre Qiantan 7,000 10% Yitu Tech IT AI Tower Xuhui Riverside 2,000 5% 0% Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Pop Mart Retail & Trade Grand Gateway Xujiahui 700 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source Savills Research Source Savills Research savills.com.cn/research 2.
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