January 2020

The Alphabulk Monthly Monitor contains essential bulk market information and is updated on a monthly basis. Information is given in good faith but without guarantee. © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

CONTENTS Market Monitor

1 Bulk Fleet Active Fleet & Additions / Deletions Capesize Supply v Demand (180,000 dwt equivalents) 1 Supply v Demand Historical 1 Historical Charter Rates Active Fleet*- 1 Jan. No. Deadweight 2,000 100% 2 Existing Dry Bulk Fleet Breakdown 1,800 2 Dry Bulk Orderbook Breakdown Cape 2,230 390,286,803 3 Cape Fleet Breakdown 1,600 90% Panamax 2,253 176,680,181 3 Panamax Fleet Breakdown 1,400 4 Supramax Fleet Breakdown 4 Handysize Fleet Breakdown. Supramax 4,327 229,756,591 1,200 80% 5 Deliveries and Newbuilding Orderbook Handy 2,312 67,932,736 1,000 6 Capesize Deliveries and Fleet Profil 800 70% 7 Panamax Deliveries and Fleet Profile 8 Orderbook by Yard - Capesize Deliveries—Dec. No. Deadweight 600 9 Orderbook by Yard - Panamax Cape 5 1,348,887 400 60% 10 Scrapping Activity 11 S & P Activity Panamax 5 410,368 200 12 Newbuild Contracting - 50% 13 VLOC Fleet Supramax 9 502,622 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 14 Charter Rates 15 Top 25 Capesize Owners Handy - - DEMAND (Left Axis) SUPPLY (Left Axis) C.U. (Right Axis) 16 Top 25 Panamax Owners 17 Chinese Steel Demand Deletions—Dec. No. Deadweight Historical Charter Rates (Baltic Exchange Avg. TC Values) 18 Chinese Coal Demand 18 Coal & Iron Ore Commodity Prices Cape 1 290,160 40,000 19 Steel Production & Ore Demand Panamax - - 19 Iron Ore & Coal Imports 35,000 20 World Exports of Iron Ore Supramax 3 133,269 21 World Exports of Coal 30,000 22 Demand for Capesize Bulk Carriers Handy 3 76,562 23 Supply of Capesize Bulk Carriers 25,000 24 Capesize Supply & Demand 24 Forward Capesize 4TC Forecast Charter Rates 25 Cape & Panamax FFA Values 20,000 26 Supramax & Handysize FFA Values Dec. 19 Nov. 19 Change 26 Selected Iron Ore Freight Rates Size Trend 15,000 26 Selected Coal Freight Rates $/day $/day % 27 Capesize Congestion Monitor Cape 19,595 21,254 - 8 % 10,000 28 Fuel Prices 28 Freight breakdown Fuel / TC / Fixed Pmax 10,690 9,816 + 9 % 5,000 29 Top 10 Coal & Iron Ore Load Ports 30 Supply & Demand Explained Smax 9,205 9,155 + 1 % - Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Handy 7,330 7,563 - 3 % CAPE-180 PMAX-74 SMX-58 HANDY-28

1 *Handy Size : 15,000—36,999; Supramax : 37,000—67,999; Panamax : 68,000– 84,999; Capesize : 85,000 + DWT © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Existing Dry Bulk Fleet Breakdown As at 1 Jan.

Size Range Dry Bulk Fleet and Orderbook by Sector in Mill. Deadweight Deadweight No. Dwt. 300 3,000—14,999 668 5,056,627 15,000—36,999 2,312 67,932,736 250 37,000—49,999 1,296 54,472,463 200 50,000—67,999 3,031 175,284,128 150 Current Fleet 68,000—84,999 2,253 176,680,181 100 85,000—119,999 583 56,325,822 On Order 50 120,000—159,999 28 4,118,597 0 160,000—219,999 1,363 251,710,247 220,000 + 256 78,132,137 TOTAL 11,790 869,712,938

Dry Bulk Orderbook Breakdown

Size Range Dry Bulk Fleet and Orderbook by Sector in No. of Vessels Deadweight No. Dwt. % of Fleet 3,500 3,000—14,999 35 243,493 4.8% 3,000 15,000—36,999 56 1,595,105 2.3% 2,500 37,000—49,999 115 4,528,268 8.3% 2,000 50,000—67,999 244 15,301,696 8.7% 1,500 Current Fleet 68,000—84,999 222 18,192,780 10.3% 1,000 85,000—119,999 69 6,559,938 11.6% On Order 500 120,000—159,999 10 1,220,000 29.6% - 160,000—219,999 150 30,324,992 12.0% 220,000 + 45 14,526,642 18.6% TOTAL 946 92,492,914 10.6%

2 © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Capesize Fleet Breakdown As at 1 Jan. Panamax Fleet Breakdown As at 1 Jan.

Age Dwt. No. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Age Dwt. No. 0 5 10 15 20 25 9.46 40 3.50 49 25 + 2% 25 + 2% Age Profile 8% 2% Age Profile 24 2.35 11 7% 24 1.66 23 23 1.02 6 (years) 1.20 17 (years) 22% 23 22% 1.25 6 0-4 12% 0-4 22 18% 22 2.90 40 21 0.79 5 5-9 21 3.02 41 5-9 10-14 16% 10-14 1.81 11 4.29 58 20 49% 15-19 20 40% 15-19 19 3.25 22 20-24 19 3.81 51 20-24 18 3.84 24 25 + 18 7.55 101 25 + 17 3.57 22 17 2.87 38 16 6.43 39 16 1.60 21 15 8.22 48 15 6.01 79 14 9.62 59 14 6.51 85 13 11.78 73 13 6.79 87 12 11.30 69 12 4.76 61 11 9.52 53 11 5.42 69 10 25.95 152 10 4.83 61 9 48.61 305 9 8.24 104 8 53.15 336 8 14.75 186 7 45.90 261 7 21.55 270 6 24.37 136 6 15.82 200 5 20.71 112 5 10.33 130 4 17.54 100 4 9.41 116 3 21.34 117 3 8.43 103 2 14.91 77 2 6.92 85 1 14.25 56 1 5.26 65 < 1 18.63 86 < 1 9.07 111

3 *Handy Size : 15,000—36,999; Supramax : 37,000—67,999; Panamax : 68,000– 84,999; Capesize : 85,000 + DWT © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Supramax Fleet Breakdown As at 1 Jan. Handysize Fleet Breakdown As at 1 Jan.

Age Dwt. No. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Age Dwt. No. 0 2 4 6 8 10 25 + 5.81 127 25 + 3.60 140 24 2.66 58 24 1.46 57 5% 2% Age Profile 5% Age Profile 23 2.62 55 8% 23 1.83 70 22 2.63 56 (years) 22 1.73 67 9% (years) 28% 11% 21 1.66 35 0-4 21 1.32 49 0-4 15% 10% 20 1.67 35 5-9 20 1.16 40 5-9 10-14 10-14 19 2.06 42 19 1.08 39 19% 46% 42% 15-19 15-19 18 4.92 98 20-24 18 1.47 54 20-24 17 3.85 76 25 + 17 1.34 47 25 & Over 16 3.57 70 16 1.00 33 15 4.52 87 15 1.56 52 14 5.76 108 14 1.49 50 13 4.70 88 13 1.41 53 12 6.01 114 12 1.96 75 11 7.63 141 11 2.54 93 10 10.92 199 10 5.22 182 9 19.58 351 9 8.40 274 8 23.17 426 8 8.48 270 7 22.56 428 7 6.99 227 6 15.19 289 6 4.28 132 5 14.88 278 5 2.79 91 4 19.31 360 4 2.29 69 3 16.53 299 3 1.41 41 2 12.07 223 2 0.82 26 1 6.21 118 1 0.94 33 < 1 9.16 164 < 1 0.73 23

4 *Handy Size : 15,000—36,999; Supramax : 37,000—67,999; Panamax : 68,000– 84,999; Capesize : 85,000 + DWT © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Deliveries, Newbuilding Orderbook and Fleet Projections As at 1 Jan. Delivery Breakdown (Million Deadweight)

Deliveries - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2016 2017 2018 2019 2016 Dwt. No. Dwt. No. Dwt. No. Dwt. No. 2017 Cape 21,015,889 116 16,152,911 85 15,225,228 62 19,917,916 91 Panamax 8,442,658 103 8,058,642 99 4,932,828 61 10,211,063 125 2018 Supramax 16,108,036 293 13,426,141 247 7,014,717 132 10,067,535 182 2019

Handy 1,567,440 46 827,803 26 905,944 32 891,140 28 2020(e)

Orderbook 2021(e)

2020 2021 2022 2023 2022(e) Dwt. No. Dwt. No. Dwt. No. Dwt. No. Cape 33,992,747 167 16,278,525 91 2,170,300 14 190,00 2 CAPESIZE PANAMAX SUPRAMAX HANDY Panamax 14,578,850 178 3,450,067 42 163,863 2 - - Delivery Breakdown by Vessel Size (Million Deadweight) Supramax 15,858,672 281 3,735,881 72 235,411 6 - - Handy 991,447 35 575,658 20 28,000 1 - - - 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Fleet Projection* 2016 31 Dec. 2019 31 Dec. 2020 31 Dec. 2021 2017

Dwt. No. Dwt. No. Dwt. No. 2018 Cape 390,286,803 2,230 412,842,543 2,329 423,188,921 2,387 2019 Panamax 176,680,181 2,253 189,584,899 2,407 191,699,973 2,429 Supramax 229,756,591 4,327 243,381,728 4,569 246,291,197 4,624 2020(e) Handy 67,932,736 2,312 68,401,310 2,327 68,314,534 2,325 2021(e)

*Note: 2022(e) Fleet projections account for slippage (some percentage of the current orderbook to be delayed or not actually delivered) and for scrapping projections for the next 2 years. The estimate, however, does not include any assumptions for future orders to utilise the spare yard capacity. CAPESIZE PANAMAX SUPRAMAX HANDY

5 *Handy Size : 15,000—36,999; Supramax : 37,000—67,999; Panamax : 68,000– 84,999; Capesize : 85,000 + DWT © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Capesize Vessel Deliveries December 2019

Dwt. Yard Owner Capesize Deliveries / Orderbook (Million Deadweight) - Monthly NSU CARAJAS 399,688 JMU ARIAKE NIPPON STEEL CORP 7 SAO INDIGO 324,690 HYUNDAI ULSAN POLARIS SHIPPING CO 6 NSU BRILLIANCE 249,989 NAMURA IMARI NIPPON STEEL CORP FERAE AUSTRALIS 187,277 SHANGHAI WAIGAOQ. SANTOKU SENPAKU 5 FIDUM AUSTRALIS 187,243 SHANGHAI WAIGAOQ. SANTOKU SENPAKU 4 3

0 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11

2019 2020 2021 DELIVERED ON ORDER

Capesize Deliveries / Orderbook (Million Deadweight) - Annually

0 Pre 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 1990 DELIVERED ON ORDER

6 © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Panamax Vessel Deliveries December 2019

Dwt. Yard Owner Panamax Deliveries / Orderbook (Million Deadweight) - Monthly JAL TARA 84,827 IMABARI MARUGAME EHIME KAIUN 4 BBG BEIHAI 82,000 XINGANG CHINA DEVELOPMENT BANK 3.5 ROYAL LAUREL 81,962 SANOYAS MIZUSHIMA TOKEI KAIUN 3 PRAIRIE 81,614 IMABARI HIROSHIMA EHIME KAIUN 2.5 XIANG SU 6 79,965 TAIZHOU MAPLE LEAF XIAMEN XIANGSU SHIPPING 2

1.5

0.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 9 1012

2019 2019

DELIVERED ON ORDER

Panamax Deliveries / Orderbook (Million Deadweight) - Annually

0 Pre 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 1990 DELIVERED ON ORDER

7 © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Orderbook by Yard - Capesize As at 1 Jan.

Actual deliveries 2015—2019 in Million Dwt Units Delivered Orderbook Orderbook - Million Dwt

16 12 8 4 0 15 16 17 18 19 Shipyard Dwt No 0 4 8 12 16 12 14 17 11 20 SHANGHAI WAIGAOQIAO 7,491,635 37 8 4 8 7 2 QINGDAO BEIHAI 6,485,294 25 0 3 1 5 7 NEW TIMES SB 5,176,230 22 4 4 0 3 2 JMU TSU 3,039,490 15 1 0 0 2 4 HYUNDAI ULSAN 2,277,450 7 0 1 3 0 0 XINGANG 2,241,750 8 0 0 0 0 0 CSHI YANGZHOU 2,056,000 10 2 3 0 0 0 DALIAN CSIC No. 2 1,840,700 16 0 0 3 3 2 GUANGZHOU SY 1,827,200 16 2 3 5 2 1 BOHAI CSIC 1,680,000 8 0 1 2 0 0 HANTONG SHI 1,664,000 8 2 0 0 5 5 JIANGSU NEW YANGZIJ. 1,608,000 8 0 7 5 0 3 JIANGSU YANGZIJIANG 1,456,000 7 3 4 0 0 2 HYUNDAI SAMHO 1,371,078 6 6 4 4 4 1 OSHIMA OSHIMA 1,098,544 11 2 3 2 4 5 IMABARI MARUGAME 1,072,500 6 3 11 2 0 8 IMABARI HIROSHIMA 1,053,320 5 2015 0 0 1 0 0 JINHAI HI 1,040,000 5 2016 3 0 3 5 4 NAMURA IMARI 994,148 7 2020 2017 8 3 3 0 3 IMABARI SAIJO 919,672 5 2021 3 4 0 0 1 NACKS 837,551 4 2018 2022 8 6 0 0 3 JMU ARIAKE 800,064 2 2019 0 0 0 0 0 JIANGSU YANGZI XINFU 650,700 2 2023 0 0 0 0 2 TSUNEISHI ZHOUSHAN 597,200 6 1 0 2 2 5 OSHIMA SAKAI 475,656 5

8 © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Orderbook by Yard - Panamax As at 1 Jan.

Actual deliveries 2015—2019 in Million Dwt Units Delivered Orderbook Orderbook - Million Dwt

6 5 4 3 2 1 0 15 16 17 18 19 Shipyard Dwt No 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 11 18 11 13 29 JIANGSU NEW YANGZIJ. 1,484,500 18 7 8 7 5 11 TSUNEISHI CEBU 1,306,496 16 6 3 2 0 1 SASEBO 1,234,804 15 8 5 6 5 8 TSUNEISHI FUKUYAMA 1,226,900 15 3 2 3 4 8 OSHIMA SAKAI 1,225,348 15 1 3 0 2 9 HANTONG SHI 1,145,200 14 0 0 2 6 13 CHENGXI 1,134,800 14 7 14 11 0 2 IMABARI MARUGAME 748,890 9 0 0 0 0 4 NACKS 737,980 9 9 10 8 3 4 TSUNEISHI ZHOUSHAN 735,720 9 0 0 1 0 0 SHANHAIGUAN 657,030 8 4 1 4 3 3 SANOYAS MIZUSHIMA 656,080 8 5 2 4 1 2 JMU MAIZURU 572,810 7 1 0 0 0 1 IMABARI HIROSHIMA 572,292 7 0 0 0 0 0 TAIZHOU KOUAN 492,000 6 0 1 3 0 2 PENGLAI ZHONGBAI 489,600 6 2015 0 0 0 0 1 CSHI ZHOUSHAN 409,845 5 2019 2016 6 5 0 0 1 JMU TSU 405,339 5 2020 0 0 0 0 4 XINGANG 328,600 4 2017 2021 0 0 0 0 0 CSHI YANGZHOU 328,000 4 2018 2022 0 0 0 0 0 HYUNDAI VINASHIN 324,800 4 2019 5 4 5 2 0 OSHIMA OSHIMA 252,000 3 2023 0 0 0 0 3 NEW DAYANG 246,000 3 0 0 0 0 0 DACKS 244,110 3 0 3 6 0 0 NAMURA IMARI 169,400 2

9 © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Scrapping Sales December 2019 Bulk Carrier Scrap Prices (USD/Ldwt)

Dwt. Built Seller Ldwt Price ($m) 600 Pakistan / India / Bangladesh BERGE VINSON 290,160 1990 SOHMEN GROUP 37,783 15 500 368.3 400

300

200

100

Demolition per Subtype 2014-2019 (Number of Vessels) Scrapping Activity (Million Dwt)

160 6

2014 2015 2016 140 135 5 2017 2018 2019 128 124 120 111 4 107 103 97 100 94 3 85 79 80 69 2

60 57 1 46 42 40 31 33 31 0 24 19 20 20 17 16 6 3 0 CAPESIZE PANAMAX SUPRAMAX HANDYSIZE Cape Panamax

10 © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Sale & Purchase Activity December 2019 Baltic Exchange Capesize 172,000 dwt 5 years old (Million USD)

Dwt. Built Seller Price ($m) 60 CAPE AGNES 181,458 2010 MITSUBISHI GROUP 22.0 50 TIGER GUANGDONG 180,099 2011 TIGER GROUP 21.3 33.21 TIGER JIANGSU 180,096 2010 TIGER GROUP 21.3 40 TIGER SHANDONG 180,091 2011 TIGER GROUP 21.3 30 TIGER LIAONING 180,082 2011 TIGER GROUP 21.3 GOTIA 178,010 2012 ORION BULKERS 23.0 20 LOWLANDS ORCHID 176,193 2005 COBELFRET 15.9 10 HL ATLAS 149,310 1995 HAHN & CO N/R GRAND THALIA 115,429 2011 HNA GROUP 15.8 0 GREEN K-MAX 2 82,215 2020 MELISSANIDIS 29.0 GREEN K-MAX 1 82,215 2019 MELISSANIDIS 29.0 MENARO 81,061 2016 DELTA SHIPPING CO 22.8 Baltic Exchange Panamax 74,000 dwt 5 years old (Million USD) CENTAURUS OCEAN 81,056 2014 MITSUBISHI GROUP N/R 30 ANDROMEDA OCEAN 80,979 2017 MITSUBISHI GROUP N/R 22.82 PAN KYLA 79,454 2012 HARIM GROUP 11.5 25 KM IMABARI 76,619 2009 IMABARI ZOSEN N/R 20 NINGBO SEAL 76,048 2011 NINGBO LONGSHENG N/R NINGBO SEA LION 76,001 2013 NINGBO LONGSHENG N/R 15

IRIS II / FIRST I / LADY Z / FRANGOS-MOUNDREAS 75,798 2004 N/R 10 THREE STARS GROUP

QI XIANG 22 75,658 2012 AVIC CAPITAL 14.4 5 PHOENIX BAY 74,759 2006 UNKNOWN 8.3 0 CALIPSO 73,691 2005 DIANA SHIPPING INC 7.3

EDELWEISS 73,624 2004 MYLONAS GROUP 7.4

11 © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Newbuild Contracting Activity December 2019 Capesize—Newbuild Contract Activity (Million Dwt)

Yard Dwt. Delivery Contracting Party 14 2x 210,000 9-12 / 2021 SHANGHAI WAIGAOQ. EASTERN PACIFIC 12 OSHIMA OSHIMA 2x 99,800 3-6 / 2021 MOL 10 NAMURA IMARI 95,000 6 / 2023 NYK OSHIMA SAKAI 95,000 4 / 2023 NYK 8 GUANGZHOU WENCH. 4x 85,000 6-12 / 2021 SEACON GROUP 6 NACKS 2x 82,500 1-3 / 2021 FUKUJIN KISEN 4 IMABARI TADOTSU 63,498 5 / 2021 UNDISCLOSED 2 OSHIMA SAKAI 53,199 9 / 2022 UNDISCLOSED IMABARI IWAGI 2x 49,720 5-7 / 2021 UNDISCLOSED 0 KANDA KAWAJIRI 5x 37,806 4/2021-3/2022 UNDISCLOSED FUJIAN SOUTHEAST 4x 22,500 5-11 / 2021 DALIAN SUCCESS Panamax—Newbuild Contract Activity (Million Dwt)

3.5

3.0

2.5 2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

12 © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

VLOC Fleet - 1 Jan. 2020

No. Of VLOC’s (current) 256 Top 20 Shipyards (by Deadweight) for VLOC’s Current VLOC’s (deadweight) 78,132,137 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 No. Of VLOC’s (on order) 45 QINGDAO BEIHAI On Order VLOC’s (deadweight) 14,526,642 NAMURA IMARI HYUNDAI ULSAN JIANGSU RONGSHENG VLOC Current fleet / Ordered - by Owner (No. of Vessels) SHANGHAI WAIGAOQIAO DAEWOO 0 10 20 30 40 50 UNIVERSAL ARIAKE DALIAN CSIC No. 2 CHINA COSCO SHIPPING HYUNDAI SAMHO DELIVERED GUANGZHOU LONGXUE POLARIS SHIPPING CO NACKS ON ORDER STX O&SB JINHAE ICBC JIANGSU NEW YANGZIJIANG MITSUBISHI NAGASAKI BERGE GUANGZHOU SY LONGXUE NEW TIMES SB XINGANG CHINA MERCHANTS GROUP BOHAI CSIC JMU ARIAKE SENO KISEN UNIVERSAL TSU MITSUI GROUP VLOC Fleet and Orderbook per Year of Delivery (Million Deadweight) HARIM GROUP NIPPON STEEL CORP 12 BANK OF COMMUNICATIONS DWT ON ORDER 10 ZODIAC GROUP DWT DELIVERED

CHINA DEVELOPMENT BANK 8 HAHN & CO GENERAL ORE INTERNATIONAL 6 OCEAN LINE HOLDINGS 4 NYK DELIVERED SINOKOR 2 ON ORDER K LINE 0 RIZHAO STEEL 1986 1992 1994 1996 2002 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

13 Note : Considering all Dry Bulk Vessels over 220,000 dwt to be VLOC. © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Charter Rates (Baltic Average of the TC Indexes) - 16 Jan. 2020 Recent Period Fixtures - Jan. 2019

40,000 Vessel Name Dwt. Charterer Period Rate Ariadne 207,520 Rio Tinto 11-13 mos 14,500 35,000 Ocean Thyme 82,306 Norden 12 mos 5,000 Astarte 81,642 Aquavita 14-16 mos 11,750 30,000 Ismene 77,901 Phaethon 13-15 mos 10,800 Oceanis 75,211 Phaethon 12-14 mos 9,200 Ocean Ambitious 63,577 Not Reported 4-6 mos 9,500 25,000 Msxt Asteria 63,465 Not Reported 3-5 mos 10,500* Aragona 63,166 Oldendorff 4-6 mos 9,250 20,000 Ic Phoenix 61,266 Trafigura 12 mos 11,000 Josco Fuzhou 58,705 Fortune Ocean 4-6 mos 5,500 15,000 Florinda I 52,498 Not Reported 3-5 mos 13,500

10,000

5,000

CAPE-180 PMAX-74 SMX-58 HANDY-28

Dec. 19 Nov. 19 Dec. 18

$/day $/day MoM $/day YoY Capesize 19,595 21,254 - 8 % 16,213 + 21 % Panamax 10,690 9,816 + 9 % 11,733 - 9 % Supramax 9,205 9,155 + 1 % 11,150 - 17 % Handysize 7,330 7,563 - 3 % 8,914 - 18 %

14 *Delivery Pacific NW with $250,000 GBB © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Capesize—Top 25 Owners As at 1 Jan. Owner Dwt. No. On Order No. 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 1 CHINA COSCO SHIPPING 20,469,659 89 5,331,650 22 2 BERGE 11,608,907 50 1,467,500 7 3 CHINA MERCHANTS GROUP 12,808,585 51 0 0 4 POLARIS SHIPPING CO 7,989,090 28 3,117,450 11 5 FREDRIKSEN GROUP 8,928,544 49 1,669,740 8 6 HARIM GROUP 7,241,326 30 2,846,750 12 7 SENO KISEN 9,428,786 51 0 0 8 ICBC 5,811,627 16 3,578,850 11 9 NYK 8,862,926 60 199,600 2 10 K LINE 8,457,819 50 309,869 2 11 MITSUI GROUP 6,942,981 41 1,757,600 10 12 ANGELICOUSSIS GROUP 7,748,578 44 832,000 4 13 OLDENDORFF E 6,085,629 42 1,864,344 10 14 NIPPON STEEL CORP 6,080,208 29 1,008,628 3 15 BANK OF COMMUNICATIONS 3,685,609 16 3,101,444 14 16 WINNING SHIPPING HK 6,156,129 34 629,551 3 17 JAPAN TBN 1,170,933 6 4,958,008 33 18 ECONOMOU GROUP 6,109,926 33 0 0 19 IMABARI ZOSEN 5,861,677 36 0 0 BROOKFIELD ASSET 5,552,907 34 207,647 1 20 DWT DELIVERED 21 HAHN & CO 4,277,294 22 1,370,700 6 DWT ON ORDER 22 ZODIAC GROUP 5,370,279 26 0 0 23 CHINA DEVELOPMENT BANK 3,134,093 14 1,872,000 9 24 NISSEN KAIUN 4,506,606 29 182,000 1 25 FOREMOST MARITIME 3,359,976 22 1,252,000 6

15 © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Panamax—Top 25 Owners As at 1 Jan. Owner Dwt. No. On Order No. 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 1 JAPAN TBN 617,829 8 5,405,774 66 2 CHINA COSCO SHIPPING 5,163,929 67 244,800 3 3 FREDRIKSEN GROUP 2,849,159 36 657,030 8 4 MITSUBISHI CORP 2,848,671 35 0 0 5 NISSEN KAIUN 2,529,715 31 169,296 2 6 BROOKFIELD ASSET 2,519,612 31 0 0 7 CHINA DEVELOPMENT BANK 2,027,715 25 410,000 5 8 CHINA MERCHANTS GROUP 2,292,058 29 0 0 9 MINSHENG FINANCIAL 2,240,148 29 0 0 10 HAJIIOANNOU GROUP 2,123,376 27 84,000 1 11 MITSUI GROUP 1,345,759 17 818,000 10 12 NAVIOS MARITIME HOLDINGS 2,095,492 27 0 0 13 WISDOM MARINE GROUP 1,517,784 19 487,574 6 14 LASKARIDIS 1,461,487 19 326,400 4 15 TSUNEISHI GROUP 1,228,356 15 491,022 6 16 PROKOPIOU GROUP 1,659,227 21 0 0 17 SANTOKU SENPAKU 1,553,512 19 82,500 1 18 OLDENDORFF E 1,044,500 13 574,000 7 19 ICBC 1,190,278 15 410,000 5 DIANA SHIPPING INC 1,540,968 20 0 0 20 DWT DELIVERED 21 NYK 1,480,622 19 0 0 DWT ON ORDER 22 KOLLAKIS GROUP 1,290,164 16 163,200 2 23 NISSHIN SHIPPING 817,352 10 571,200 7 24 BANK OF COMMUNICATIONS 880,539 11 480,000 6 25 KLAVENESS 926,155 12 417,500 5

16 © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Chinese Steel Demand As at 1 Jan.

Monthly Chinese Crude Steel Production (Million Mt.) Monthly Chinese Domestic and Foreign Imports of Iron Ore (Million Mt.)

90 3.0 160 Monthly (LHS) Daily (RHS) Domestic production Foreign imports 85 140 2.5 80 120 2.0 75 100

70 1.5 80

65 60 1.0 60 40 Dec. 19 Nov. 19 Change Trend Dec. 19 Nov. 19 Change Trend 0.5 55 Monthly 84.27 80.29 + 5% 20 Domestic 75.18 79.25 - 5.1% Daily 2.72 2.68 + 1.6% Imports 101.3 80.65 + 25.6% 50 0.0 0

Monthly Domestic and Imported Iron Ore v Chinese Crude Steel Production (See Note) Monthly Iron Ore Stocks at Major Chinese ports (Million Mt.)

100 140 90 120 80

70 100

60 80 50 60 40

30 40 20 20 1 Jan. 20 1 Dec. 19 Change Trend 10 Domestic (Fe) Imported (Fe) Total (Fe) Steel Production 98.74 96.65 + 2.2% 0 -

17 Bottom Left : In this graph the Domestic and Imported Iron Ore have been corrected to represent the actual Iron Ore (Fe) *Estimate © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Chinese Coal Demand & Commodity Prices

Chinese Coal Imports & Domestic Production (Million Mt.) Chinese Coal Consumption (Million Mt.)

450 450 Chinese Imports Domestic Production Cement Industry 400 400 Power Generation Industry Steel Industry 350 350 Total Chinese Coal Consumption

300 300

250 250

200 200

150 150

100 100

50 50

0 0

Steam Coal Prices and Coal Freight Rates (USD p/mt) up to 1 Jan. Iron Ore Prices and Iron Ore Freight Rates (USD p/wmt) up to 19 Jan.

140 180 35 Iron Ore Fines 62% Fe CIF China (Left Axis) Newcastle Index FOB 6000kcal (GC) 160 Tubarao / China (Right Axis) 120 30 CIF Guangzhou W Australia / China (Right Axis) 140 100 25 120

80 100 20

60 80 15 60 40 10 Newc / China - Cape Freight 40 20 5 20

0 0 0

18 © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Other Asian & Western Steel Production, & Iron Ore / Coal Imports As at 1 Jan.

Crude Steel Production (Million Mt) Asian Coal Imports (Million Mt)

10 40

9 35 8 30 7 25 6

5 20

4 15 3 10 2 5 1 Japan South Korea India Germany Turkey USA Japan South Korea Taiwan India China - -

Iron Ore Imports (Million Mt) (from Exporter Point of View) European—Coal Thermal & Coking Imports (Million Mt) (from Exporter Point of View)

16 25 Japan South Korea Taiwan India EU27 EU 27 Germany Turkey 14 20 12

10 15 8

6 10

4 5 2

- 0

19 NOTE : Bottom Right Graph: EU27 also includes Germany. © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

World Exports of Iron Ore (Million Mt.) As at 1 Jan. 160

140

120

100 Other Canada 80 West Africa 60 South Africa India 40 Brazil Australia 20

Australia Brazil India South Africa West Africa Canada Other Total December 2018 76.27 33.20 1.60 5.49 1.53* 4.90 15.37* 138.37* January 2019 64.31 33.14 1.59 7.05 1.33* 3.19 17.20* 127.80* February 2019 66.74 28.92 1.36 5.53 1.74* 3.21 12.88* 120.38* March 2019 57.92 22.18 1.98 5.20 1.56* 3.79 15.41* 108.05* April 2019 68.14 18.92 2.66 6.09 1.34* 3.44 17.96* 118.54* May 2019 76.67 29.83 2.99 5.54 1.48* 4.58 16.26* 137.07* June 2019 75.00 29.40 2.96 4.27 1.20* 4.20 15.62* 132.64* July 2019 69.65 33.97 3.12 5.94 1.61* 5.03 19.08* 138.40* August 2019 74.24 28.30 0.93* 5.96 1.49* 6.23 16.54* 133.70* September 2019 70.43 27.14 1.18* 3.76 1.23* 5.10 15.93* 124.76* October 2019 68.48 31.19 1.47* 5.11* 1.26* 4.87 14.48* 126.85* November 2019 71.95 27.25 2.09* 5.66* 1.46* 3.72 16.21* 128.33* December 2019 80.15* 24.67 2.27* 6.27* 1.52* 4.65* 17.19* 136.71*

20 *Estimate © Copyright Alphabulk 2020 Unauthorised redistribution prohibited

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

World Exports of Coal (Steam + Coking) (Million Mt.) As at 1 Jan.

140

120

100 Other Canada 80 Russia USA 60 South Africa Colombia 40 Indonesia 20 Australia

Australia Indonesia Colombia South Africa U.S.A. Russia Canada Other Total December 2018 34.76 30.82 7.30 7.86 8.08 18.56 3.07 9.05* 119.51* January 2019 33.43 31.75 4.96 5.06 8.42 10.97 2.22 7.71* 104.51* February 2019 26.38 23.66* 6.37 7.05 6.08 18.37 2.05 6.33* 96.39* March 2019 32.96 27.90* 5.39 7.33 8.36 23.88 3.55 8.97* 118.35* April 2019 30.55 25.29* 6.78 6.59 7.51 15.19 2.12 8.62* 102.65* May 2019 32.56 25.55* 9.04 6.90 8.23 16.30 2.47 8.92* 109.98* June 2019 36.92 25.03* 4.46 6.88 7.20 19.31 3.32 7.40* 110.54* July 2019 36.00 26.11* 5.91 5.12 5.88 13.81 2.66 8.67* 104.16* August 2019 32.09 25.57* 7.72* 5.71 6.99 18.10 2.75 8.93* 107.87* September 2019 31.63 26.32* 6.87* 6.51 7.00 19.10 3.67 8.57* 109.68* October 2019 32.54 27.95* 7.42* 7.26 5.83 15.89 2.42 8.38* 107.69* November 2019 30.27 27.26* 6.30* 7.81 6.79 17.89 2.47 8.74* 107.52* December 2019 36.41* 27.60* 7.25* 6.58* 7.73* 18.08* 2.80* 8.99* 115.43*

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Demand for Capesize Bulk Carriers— Basis Standard 180,000 Deadweight Vessel Equivalents As at 1 Jan.

1,600 CONGESTION FORECAST INDO BAUX GUI BAUX 1,400 WAFR ORE OMAN ORE T + T ORE NZ ORE 1,200 PERU ORE CHILE ORE PHILO ORE INDO ORE 1,000 AUS IORE INDIA ORE SAF ORE 800 MAU ORE RUSS ORE UKR ORE SCAN ORE 600 VEN ORE MEX ORE USA ORE CAN ORE 400 BRAZ ORE RUSS COAL CAN COAL 200 USA COAL COL COAL RBAY COAL INDO COAL - AUS COAL ALL COAL

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Capesize Bulk Carrier Supply Overview—Translated into Standard 180,000 Dwt Capesize Vessel Equivalents* As at 1 Jan.

2,400

2,200

2,000

1,800 100% 85% 1,600 70% 1,400

1,200

1,000 Jan-2014 Jan-2015 Jan-2016 Jan-2017 Jan-2018 Jan-2019 Jan-2020 Jan-2021

Capesize Deliveries / Orderbook (Million Deadweight) - Monthly

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 DELIVERED ON ORDER

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Capesize Supply & Demand* — Base Case of 70% of Forward Orderbook being delivered As at 23 Jan.

100% Demand Supply C.U. 2,000 Q4-18 1,358 1,931 72.9% ESTIMATE 90% Q1-19 1,269 1,941 67.8% 1,500 Q2-19 1,349 1,909 73.3% 80% Q3-19 1,301 1,924 70.2% DEMAND (Left Axis) 1,000 70% SUPPLY (Left Axis) Q4-19 1,365 1,940 74.8% C.U. (Right Axis) Q1-20 1,346 1,999 72.5% 500 60% Q2-20 1,381 2,036 73.0% Q3-20 1,401 2,064 73.1% - 50% Q4-20 1,434 2,082 74.2% Q1-21 1,375 2,115 67.0%

Capacity Utilisation v Baltic Exchange C5TC Index (180,000 dwt) As at 23 Jan.

45,000 90% C.U. 5TC Avg. 5TC Forecast 40,000 85% Q4-18 72.9% 15,822 35,000 80% Q1-19 67.8% 8,628 30,000 75% Q2-19 73.3% 12,479 25,000 4TC AVG (Left Axis) Q3-19 70.2% 29,423 70% 5TC AVG (Left Axis) 20,000 Q4-19 74.8% 23,102 65% 5TC Forecast (Left Axis) 15,000 C.U. (Right Axis) Q1-20 72.5% 8,750 60% 10,000 Q2-20 73.0% 15,250 55% 5,000 Q3-20 73.1% 15,250 - 50% Q4-20 74.2% 18,500 Q1-21 67.0% 6,250

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

FFA—Capesize

15 Jan. 2020 16 Dec. 2019 MoM 40,000 Index 9,011 17,060 - 8,049 Cape 5TC 35,000 Cape 4TC Jan (20) 9,306 14,481 - 5,175 FFA - 12 months 30,000 FFA - 9 months Feb (20) 8,769 11,666 - 2,897 FFA - 6 months Mar (20) 10,391 11,616 - 1,225 25,000 FFA - 3 months FFA curve Q2 (20) 12,219 12,525 - 306 20,000 Q3 (20) 16,181 16,156 + 25 15,000 Q4 (20) 16,731 16,638 + 93 Cal 21 12,184 12,734 - 550 10,000 Cal 22 12,753 13,031 - 278 5,000

Cal 23 12,806 13,216 - 410 0 Cal 24 12,878 13,228 - 350 Cal 25 12,897 13,231 - 334 FFA—Panamax

15 Jan. 2020 16 Dec. 2019 MoM 20,000 Index 6,086 11,731 - 5,645 Pmx 4TC 18,000 FFA - 12 months Jan (20) 6,972 9,900 - 2,928 16,000 FFA - 9 months FFA - 6 months Feb (20) 8,381 9,550 - 1,169 14,000 FFA - 3 months Mar (20) 10,350 10,440 - 90 12,000 FFA curve Q2 (20) 10,688 10,459 + 229 10,000 Q3 (20) 10,653 10,322 + 331 8,000 Q4 (20) 10,581 9,813 + 768 6,000 Cal 21 9,503 9,137 + 366 4,000 Cal 22 9,156 9,006 + 150 2,000 Cal 23 8,919 8,772 + 147 0 Cal 24 8,691 8,572 + 119 Cal 25 8,653 8,553 + 100

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

FFA—Supramax FFA—Handysize

15 Jan. 2020 16,000 15 Jan. 2020 12,000 Index 6,154 Index 5,021 14,000 Jan (20) 6,704 Jan (20) 5,950 10,000 12,000 Feb (20) 7,711 Feb (20) 6,513 8,000 Mar (20) 9,414 10,000 Mar (20) 7,050 Q2 (20) 10,093 8,000 Q2 (20) 7,338 6,000 Q3 (20) 10,300 Q3 (20) 7,425 6,000 Smx 10TC 4,000 Handy 6TC Q4 (20) 10,186 FFA - 12 months Q4 (20) 7,425 FFA - 12 months 4,000 Cal 21 9,557 FFA - 9 months Cal 21 7,144 FFA - 9 months FFA - 6 months 2,000 FFA - 6 months Cal 22 9,061 2,000 FFA - 3 months Cal 22 7,106 FFA - 3 months FFA curve FFA curve Cal 23 8,850 0 Cal 23 7,106 0 Cal 24 8,750 Cal 24 7,106 Cal 25 8,646 Cal 25 7,100 FFA—Selected Coal and Iron Ore Cape Freight : Baltic, Futures & Synthetic Curves. As at 20 Jan.

40 40 20 Brazil / China (B) Gladstone / China (S1) Bolivar / S.China (S1) Richards Bay / Rotterdam (B) Brazil / Rotterdam (B) 18 35 South Africa / China (B) 35 Richards Bay / China (S2) Colombia /Rotterdam (B) W. Australia / China (B) Gladstone / China (S2) 16 Richards Bay / Rotterdam (F) 30 Brazil / China (F) 30 Bolivar / S. China (S2) Colombia /Rotterdam (F) Brazil / Rotterdam (S2) Richards Bay / China (B) 14 South Africa / China (S2) 25 25 W. Australia / China (F) 12 20 20 10

8 15 15 6 10 10 4 5 5 2

- - 0

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Capesize Congestion—Brazil (Number of Ships) Capesize Congestion—South and West Africa (Number of Ships)

50 45 Guaiba Sepetiba Acu Tubarao PDM RBCT Saldanha Buchanan Kamsar Nouadhibou 45 40

40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 01-Dec 08-Dec 15-Dec 22-Dec 29-Dec 05-Jan 12-Jan 19-Jan 01-Dec 08-Dec 15-Dec 22-Dec 29-Dec 05-Jan 12-Jan 19-Jan Capesize Congestion—West Australia (Number of Ships) Capesize Congestion—East Australia (Number of Ships)

60 25 Whyalla Esperance Dampier Port Walcott Port Hedland Newcastle Gladstone DBCT Abbot Point 50 20

40 15 30 10 20

10 5

0 0 01-Dec 08-Dec 15-Dec 22-Dec 29-Dec 05-Jan 12-Jan 19-Jan 01-Dec 08-Dec 15-Dec 22-Dec 29-Dec 05-Jan 12-Jan 19-Jan

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Historical Fuel Prices Freight Breakdown—Coal As at 1 Jan.

1,000 16 Bolivar / Rotterdam 60% IFO 380 Rott 900 14 IFO 380 Sing 50% 800 12 MGO Rott 40% 700 10 MGO Sing 600 8 30% 6 500 20% 400 4 10% 300 2 200 - 0% 100 - Port Costs Bunker Component Time Charter Component Bunker % of Freight Selected Iron Ore Freight Routes - Breakdown of Freight

30 Brazil / China 80% 12 W. Aus / China 70% 70% 25 10 60% 60% 50% 20 8 50% 40% 15 40% 6 30% 30% 10 4 20% 20% 5 2 10% 10% - 0% - 0%

Port Costs Bunker Component Port Costs Bunker Component Time Charter Component Bunker % of Freight Time Charter Component Bunker % of Freight

Monthly Monitor MONTHLY MONITOR January 2020

Top 10 Load Ports

60 25 16

14 50 20 12 40 15 10 30 8

10 6 20 4 10 5 2 Port Hedland - December - 47.4m mt Port Walcott - December - 18.6m mt Dampier - December - 13m mt - - -

25 12 8

7 20 10 6 8 15 5 6 4 10 3 4 2 5 2 1 PDM - December - 16.4m mt Tubarao - December - 5.9m mt Saldanha - December - 6.3m mt - - 0

18 9 7 8 16 6 14 7 5 12 6 10 5 4

8 4 3 6 3 2 4 2 1 2 1 Newcastle - December - 15.4m mt Richards Bay - December - 6.6m mt Kamsar Anchorages - December - 4.9m mt 0 0 0

Supply and Demand Explained

The base unit for the Alphabulk Supply and Demand Model is days of 180,000 dwt and we compare every vessel and cargo back to that standard. For the purposes of this model we consider all vessels of 90,000 dwt and over. Table 1 No of days Supply Per Deadweight Per day Per Year Supply month*

On the supply side a vessel of 180,000 dwt will generate 365 days of supply for each calendar year. A larger or smaller vessel will gen- 92,000 0.51 15.84 186.56 erate proportionally more or less days of supply as the case may be (see table 1). These monthly and annual values are then adjusted 105,000 0.58 18.08 212.92 further to allow for off hire and dry docking. Vessels of over 240,000 dwt have an additional adjustment factor (-5%) to allow for short loading of these larger vessels. 125,000 0.69 21.53 253.47 E.g. supply value of 1,670 is equivalent to 1,670 vessels of 180,000 dwt (after all drydocking / off-hire adjustments). 150,000 0.83 25.83 304.17 Demand 180,000 1.00 31.00 365.00 220,000 1.22 37.89 446.11 Behind the freight model there are 2 commodity models, one for iron ore and one for coal. These models are built with both cus- 400,000 2.22 68.89 811.11 toms data and Alphabulk’s forward projections on future volumes to derive a monthly data series (both historical and forward) for each exporting country. Alphabulk then utilises past behavior to determine the percentage of these exports that will be performed by capes before applying voyage parameters (basis 180,000 dwt capesize vessel) to each route to determine the number of days demand * Month of 31 days such as Jan. or Dec. that that route generates (See Table 2). For Example in March 2012 Richards Bay exported 689,930mt to EU27. Of this, 530,030mt was performed by Capes which repre- Table 2 Richards Bay March 2012 Exports sents 3.21 shipments (basis the standard 180 dwt vessel). Each shipment takes 55 days and thus the 530,030mt will generate a total Destina- Total Cape Demand of 176 days demand, which we then divide by the number of days in that month to get our final demand figure of 5.68 vsls. tion Volume Volume days China 1,267,484 1,267,484 432 Capacity Utilisation and Price Taiwan 476,750 476,750 156 Korea 532,600 532,600 193 By comparing the Monthly Supply and Demand Values and accounting for vsl speed, we can calculate the utilisation of the cape fleet. Although other factors also have to be considered, this Capacity Utilization is a good indicator for the health of the Capesize market India 2,122,734 1,118,820 265 and can be used to predict the future behaviour of the market. It is important to remember that this C.U. will not take into account EU27 689,930 530,030 176 factors such as sentiment or localised imbalances which can drive the market just as effectively as a 2 % shift in C.U.

Disclaimer Baltic Exchange

The information in this newsletter is given in good faith based on the market situation at the time of preparation and as such is spe- Where reference is made to the Baltic Exchange the cific to that situation only. While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation and collection of information in this report Al- associated data is copyright to the Baltic Exchange phabulk does not accept any liability whatsoever for any errors of fact or omission or opinion, or for any loss incurred by any person and is reproduced here with their kind permission. who may seek to rely on this information. This newsletter is intended solely for the recipient and must not be reproduced or passed or shared with any third parties without the written permission of Alphabulk.