: : Rodolfo Sabonge Rodolfo Sabonge Rodolfo Sabonge Rodolfo Sabonge
Panama Canal Authority Panama Canal Authority Panama Canal Authority Panama Canal Authority June 26, 2001 June 26, June 26, 2001 June 26, Galveston, Texas Galveston, Texas The Panama Canal Panama The The Panama Canal Panama The
Director, Corporate Planning and Marketing Director, Corporate Planning and Marketing Director, Corporate Planning and Marketing Director, Corporate Planning and Marketing International Trade Conference International International Trade Conference International Director, Corporate Planning and Marketing Director, Corporate Planning and Marketing Modernization and Expansion Modernization and Expansion 26th Annual Summer Ports, Waterways, Freight & 26th Annual Summer Ports, Waterways, Freight & AgendaAgenda
!! CanalCanal PerformancePerformance
!! ModernizationModernization ProgramProgram
!! ExpansionExpansion PlansPlans ATLANTIC OCEAN
CHAGRES RIVER
RIO GRANDE
PACIFIC OCEAN ATLANTIC OCEAN
GATUN LAKE CHAGRES RIVER
GRANDE RIVER
PACIFIC OCEAN COLONCOLON CICITYTY ATLANTIC OCEAN
GATUN LOCKS
GATUN MADDEN LAKE
RIO CHAGRES PEDRO MIGUEL LOCKS
MIRAFLORES LOCKS PANAMPANAMA A CICITYTY
PACIFIC OCEAN
PANAMPANAM AX AX VESSELVESSEL LOCKSLOCKS CHAMBER:CHAMBER: 304.8304.8 mts.mts. MAXMAX LENGTH:LENGTH: 294294 mts.mts.
MAXMAX DRAFT:DRAFT: 1212 M.M.
CHAMBERCHAMBER WIDTH:WIDTH: 33.5233.52 mtsmts MAXMAX BEAM:BEAM: 32.532.5 mts.mts. 8080 KmKm 88 -- 1010 hrshrs TRANSITTRANSIT TIMETIME +/-+/- 2424 hrshrs CWTCWT Kobe,Kobe, JapanJapan -- NewNew YorkYork SavesSaves 2,2,846846 NautNautiicalcal MiMilleses Source:Source: FaiFairprp l layay WorlWorldshidshippippingng EncyclEncyclopediopediaa 19981998 EcuadorEcuador -- NewNew YorkYork SavesSaves 7,7,366366 NautNautiicalcal MiMilleses Source:Source: FaiFairprp l layay WorlWorldshidshippippingng EncyclEncyclopediopediaa 19981998 PrincipalPrincipal RoutesRoutes -- FYFY 20002000 EastEast CoastCoast U.S.U.S. AsiaAsia
COMMODITIES • GRAINS • CONTAINERS • CHEMICALS • FERTILIZERS & PHOSPHATES 42.0%42.0% • MANUFACTURERS IRON & STEEL PrincipalPrincipal RoutesRoutes -- FYFY 20002000 WestWest CoastCoast SouthSouth AmericaAmerica EastEast CoastCoast U.S.U.S.
COMMODITIES • GRAINS • PETROLEUM • CONTAINERS 8.9%8.9% • SALT • MISCELLANEOUS PANAMAPANAMA CANALCANAL TRAFFICTRAFFIC InIn FiscalFiscal YearYear 2000:2000:
!! MoreMore thanthan 13,60013,600 oceangoingoceangoing commercialcommercial transitstransits
!! 194194 MillionMillion longlong tonstons ofof cargocargo
!! 4%4% ofof thethe world’sworld’s seaborneseaborne tradetrade TransitsTransits byby PrincipalPrincipal OceangoingOceangoing ShipShip TypesTypes Calendar Year 4,5004,500 4,0004,000
3,5003,500 3,0003,000
2,5002,500 2,0002,000
1,5001,500 1,0001,000
500500 00 19961996 19971997 19981998 19991999 20002000 DryDry BulkBulk CarriersCarriers 3,8393,839 3,5503,550 3,4703,470 3,2653,265 3,0093,009 ContainershipsContainerships 1,7271,727 1,8081,808 2,0692,069 1,9581,958 2,2122,212 RefrigeratedRefrigerated CargoCargo 2,4742,474 2,4422,442 2,0182,018 1,9971,997 2,0292,029 TankersTankers 2,0382,038 2,0712,071 1,8771,877 1,9291,929 2,0142,014 GeneralGeneral CargoCargo 1,4171,417 1,3691,369 1,3141,314 999999 1,0521,052 VehicleVehicle CarriersCarriers 746746 702702 752752 879879 903903 PassengerPassenger ShipsShips 283283 296296 305305 297297 246246 PC/UMSPC/UMS NetNet TonsTons byby PrincipalPrincipal OceangoingOceangoing ShipShip TypeType CalendarCalendar YearYear 90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000 Thousands of Net Tons Net of Thousands 10,000
0 19961996 19971997 19981998 19991999 20002000
DryDry BulkBulk CarriersCarriers 81,91681,916 74,03674,036 71,81371,813 69,30869,308 65,38965,389 ContainershipsContainerships 41,16141,161 43,85043,850 51,52451,524 50,90150,901 58,87158,871 VehicleVehicle CarriersCarriers 26,06726,067 24,96024,960 27,62227,622 32,80632,806 36,17136,171 TankersTankers 34,49234,492 34,03934,039 31,16031,160 32,16332,163 32,55732,557 RefrigeratedRefrigerated CargoCargo 17,56817,568 17,88117,881 14,76414,764 15,25115,251 15,52215,522 PassengerPassenger ShipsShips 7,7427,742 8,9898,989 9,4499,449 9,8729,872 8,7898,789 GeneralGeneral CargoCargo 11,00411,004 10,64510,645 10,25610,256 7,5317,531 8,0148,014 LiquidLiquid GasGas CarriersCarriers 2,6542,654 2,4552,455 2,2542,254 2,7302,730 2,6492,649 PanamaPanama CanalCanal UniversalUniversal MeasurementMeasurement SystemSystem (PCUMS)(PCUMS)
CC u u rre rre n n t t TolTolllss $$ 2.2.5757 //PCUMPCUM S S ((lladen)aden) $$ 2.2.0404 //PCUMPCUM S S ((balballlastast)) $$ 1.1.4343 //didisplsplacemacem ent ent ttonon
OneOne PCUMSPCUMS TonTon == 100100 cubicubicc ffeeteet ofof cargocargo carryicarryingng capacicapacittyy AverageAverage PC/UMSPC/UMS NetNet TonnageTonnage ofof OceangoingOceangoing VesselsVessels byby ShipShip TypeType Calendar Year 45,000 Calendar Year
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
PC/UMS Net Tons 15,000
10,000
5,000
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Vehicle Carriers 34,942 35,556 36,731 37,322 40,057 Passenger Ship 27,358 30,369 30,981 33,239 35,729 Containerships 23,834 24,253 24,903 25,997 26,614 Dry-bulk Carrier 21,338 20,855 20,695 21,227 21,731 Tanker 16,925 16,436 16,601 16,674 16,165 Liquid-gas carrier 15,078 11,860 11,678 13,652 13,868 Refrigerated Cargo 7,101 7,322 7,316 7,637 7,650 General Cargo 7,766 7,776 7,805 7,539 7,618 CargoCargo FlowFlow byby CommodityCommodity TypeType MillionsMillions ofof LongLong TonsTons
Calendar Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Grains 42.8 34.4 39.0 41.0 39.6 Container cargo 25.8 27.5 28.7 30.4 34.2 Petroleum and products 31.5 30.9 30.0 27.8 29.0 Nitrates, phosphates and potash 15.6 15.3 14.6 13.3 12.7 Manufactures of iron and steel 8.2 8.4 14.7 11.3 11.3 Chemicals and petroleum chemicals 11.3 10.4 9.1 12.0 11.0 Coal and coke 11.3 11.9 8.8 8.9 9.4 Others 51.1 53.9 47.8 47.0 48.8
Total 197.7 192.7 192.7 191.7 195.8 AccidentAccident StatisticsStatistics
40 3838 35 -- 30 -- 2929 2828 2828 25 -- 2424 20 -- 15 -- 10 -- 5 -- 0 No.of Accident Investigations No.of Accident Investigations 19961996 19971997 19981998 19991999 20002000
CalendarCalendar YearYear CanalCanal WatersWaters TimeTime 33 32 32 31.8 30.9 31
30
29 28.5
28 27.7
Canal Waters TimeinHours 27
26
25 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Year
TOTAL TRANSITS 5050 FY 1915 - 1999 250.00250.00 4545 4040 200.00200.00 TransitsTransits 3535 3030 150.00150.00
2525 2020 100.00100.00 1515 Transits in Thousands Transits in Transits in Thousands Transits in 1010 50.0050.00 55 00 0.000.00 1999 1919 1923 1935 1947 1951 1963 1987 1991 1915 1927 1931 1939 1943 1955 1959 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1995 1999 1919 1923 1935 1947 1951 1963 1987 1991 1915 1927 1931 1939 1943 1955 1959 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1995 FiscalFiscal YearYear TOTAL TRANSITS vs PC/UMS NET 5050 FY 1915 - 1999 250.00250.00 4545 4040 200.00200.00 TransitsTransits PC/UMSPC/UMS NetNet 3535 3030 150.00150.00
2525 2020 100.00100.00 1515 Transits in Thousands Transits in Transits in Thousands Transits in 10 50.0050.00 10 in Millions PC/UMS Net PC/UMS Net in Millions PC/UMS Net 55 00 0.000.00 1999 1919 1923 1935 1947 1951 1963 1987 1991 1915 1927 1931 1939 1943 1955 1959 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1995 1999 1919 1923 1935 1947 1951 1963 1987 1991 1915 1927 1931 1939 1943 1955 1959 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1995 FiscalFiscal YearYear AVERAGEAVERAGE PC/PC/UMSUMS NETNET TONNAGETONNAGE OceangoingOceangoing CommercialCommercial VesselsVessels
4,8324,832 9,9319,931 18,64918,649
FYFY 19551955 FYFY 19751975 FYFY 20002000 Panamax Transits + 40 100 feet of Beam 37 35 35 33 31 30 30 29 27 26 25 24 24 25 23 23 23 22 22 20 20 20 19 19 16 16 15 14 11 % of Total Transits of Total % 10 8 7 6 5 5
0 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 Fiscal Year IMPACTIMPACT OFOF VESSELVESSEL SIZESIZE ➨ Lockages in half the time ➨ 4 locomotives required ➨ 3 tug assignments ➨ 1 pilot ➨ < 80’ BEAM No transit restriction
➨ 6 or 8 locomotives required ➨ 7 to 10 tug assignments ➨ Minimum of 2 pilots ➨ Restricted to daylight transit PANAMAX AgendaAgenda
!! CanalCanal PerformancePerformance
!! ModernizationModernization ProgramProgram ATLANTIC OCEAN REPUBLIREPUBLICC OFOF PANAMAPANAMA
COLONCOLON
GATUNGATUN LOLO CKS CKS MADENMADEN LAKELAKE
GATUNGATUN LAKELAKE GAIGAILLARDLLARD CUTCUT
PEDROPEDRO MIMIGUELGUEL LOLO CKS CKS
MIMIRAFLORAFLO RES RES LOLOCKS CKS
Balboa PANAMAPANAM A CITY
PACIFIC OCEAN $1B$1B IImprmprovemovem ent ent andand MM oder oderninizatzatiionon PrProgrogramam
New Track Cut Widening
New Locomotives
EVTMS New Tugs
Locks Machinery BenefitsBenefits ofof ModernizationModernization ProgramProgram
" Increased Canal capacity by 20% " Reduced Canal Waters Time " Reduced impact of lane outages " Improved navigational safety " Reduced maintenance costs " Improved reliability
TotalTotal TransitsTransits ForecastForecast vsvs CapacityCapacity 28,00028,000 26,00026,000 Total Transits 24,00024,000 Canal Capacity
22,00022,000
20,00020,000
18,00018,000 Total Transits Total Transits 16,00016,000
14,00014,000
12,00012,000
10,00010,000 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2022 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 FiscalFiscal YearYear AgendaAgenda
!! CanalCanal PerformancePerformance
!! ModernizationModernization ProgramProgram
!! ExpansionExpansion PlansPlans Study Plans ConceptualConceptual
ReconnaissanceReconnaissance oror Pre-feasibilityPre-feasibility 1999-20001999-2000 Full-FeasibilityFull-Feasibility 2001-20022001-2002 ReachingReaching ConsensusConsensus
FinalFinal DesignDesign
ImplementationImplementation World´sWorld´s vsvs CanalCanal TradeTrade (Million(Million LongLong Tons)Tons)
16,50016,500 16,00016,000 15,50015,500 15,570 15,00015,000 14,50014,500 14,00014,000 13,50013,500 13,00013,000 12,50012,500 12,00012,000 11,50011,500 11,371 11,00011,000 10,50010,500 10,00010,000 9,5009,500 9,092 9,0009,000 9,092 8,5008,500 8,0008,000 7,5007,500 7,507 7,0007,000 6,5006,500 6,0006,000 6,052 5,5005,500 5,188 5,0005,000 4,500 4,307 4,500 4,101 4,307 4,0004,000 3,5003,500 3,0003,000 3,024 2,5002,500 2,0002,000 1,5001,500 1,0001,000 500500 00 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 World Seaborne Trade World´sWorld´s vsvs CanalCanal TradeTrade (Million(Million LongLong Tons)Tons)
16,50016,500 16,00016,000 15,50015,500 15,570 15,00015,000 14,50014,500 14,00014,000 13,50013,500 13,00013,000 12,50012,500 12,00012,000 11,50011,500 11,371 11,00011,000 10,50010,500 10,00010,000 9,5009,500 9,092 9,0009,000 9,092 8,5008,500 8,0008,000 7,5007,500 7,507 7,0007,000 6,5006,500 6,322 6,0006,000 6,052 5,5005,500 5,188 5,0005,000 4,500 4,307 4,462 4,500 4,101 4,307 4,0004,000 3,5003,500 3,452 3,000 3,024 2,776 3,000 2,150 2,5002,500 2,150 2,0002,000 1,783 1,5001,500 1,346 1,426 1,0001,000 850 500500 00 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 World Seaborne Trade Accessible Market share World´sWorld´s vsvs CanalCanal TradeTrade (Million(Million LongLong Tons)Tons)
16,50016,500 16,00016,000 15,50015,500 15,570 15,00015,000 14,50014,500 14,00014,000 13,50013,500 13,00013,000 12,50012,500 12,00012,000 11,50011,500 11,371 11,00011,000 10,50010,500 10,00010,000 9,5009,500 9,092 9,0009,000 9,092 8,5008,500 8,0008,000 7,5007,500 7,507 7,0007,000 6,5006,500 6,322 6,0006,000 6,052 5,5005,500 5,188 5,0005,000 4,500 4,307 4,462 4,500 4,101 4,307 4,0004,000 3,5003,500 3,452 3,000 3,024 2,776 3,000 2,150 2,5002,500 2,150 2,0002,000 1,783 1,5001,500 1,346 1,426 1,0001,000 850 500 207 218 260 308 500 157 190 194 207 218 230 241 308 00 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 World Seaborne Trade Accessible Market share PCBaseline WORLDWORLD SEABORNESEABORNE TRADETRADE
ProjectionsProjections forfor seaborneseaborne commercecommerce
Containers YEARGeneral cargo MILLION Dry bulk M.T. Liquid bulk 1970 2,500 1996 4,790 2002 6,000 2015 8,000 ContainershipsContainerships Newbuilding orders: 484 Feb. 2001) Newbuilding orders: 484 Feb. 2001)
1%1% 10%10% 39%39% 21%21%
6%6% 23%23%
FeFe e e de de r r FeedermaxFeedermax HandyHandy
Sub-PanamaxSub-Panamax PanamPanam ax ax Post-PanamaxPost-Panamax Source:Source: FairplayFairplay Solutions,Solutions, MarchMarch 20012001
Fuente: Fairplay Solutions, JUNE 2000-ISSUE No. 45 ContainershipsContainerships -- CapacityCapacity NewbuildingsNewbuildings onon orderorder (1,576,896(1,576,896 TEUsTEUs FebFeb 2001)2001) 2% 9%
18%
65% 6%
Feedermax Handy Sub-Panamax Panamax Post-Panamax Source:Source: FairplayFairplay Solutions,Solutions, MarchMarch 20012001
Fuente: Fairplay Solutions, June 2000 ISSUE No. 45
POST-POST- PANAMAXPANAMAX PANAMAXPANAMAX MAXMAX MAXMAX LENGTH:LENGTH: LENGTH:LENGTH: 965965 FEETFEET 1,2651,265 FEETFEET 294294 M.M. 385.6M385.6M
MAXMAX DRAFT:DRAFT: 39.539.5 FEETFEET 1212 M.M. MAXMAX DRAFT:DRAFT: MAXMAX BEAM:BEAM: 5050 FEETFEET 106106 FEETFEET 15.2M15.2M 32.532.5 M.M. MAXMAX BEAM:BEAM: 180180 FEETFEET 53.9M53.9M MajorMajor AreasAreas ofof StudyStudy
SOCIO- MARKET ENVIRONMENTAL
LOCKS
WATER DRAFT
SOCIO-SOCIO- ECONOMICECONOMIC IMPACTIMPACT
FINANCIAL FINANCING RISK RISK STRUCTURESTRUCTURE TRAFFIC
LEGAL REVENUES PRICING STRUCTURE SGTRATEGY
COMMUNICATION STRATEGY MarketMarket ResearchResearch andand AnalysisAnalysis • Long-term traffic forecasts, sensitivity and risk analysis • Marketing visits to major Canal users, shipowners, shippers, and maritime organizations • Independent long-term traffic forecast • Detailed market segments analysis will continue for remainder of this year, along with evaluations of transportation alternatives Water Studies
• Reconnaissance studies – with USACE-Mobile (1998-1999)
30 possible Initial evaluation projects
Final evaluation 19 projects and ranking Selection of 5 projects projects with greatest potential ProjectsProjects thatthat requirerequire newnew damdam constructionconstruction ProjectsProjects underunder studystudy andand theirtheir potentialpotential forfor increasingincreasing thethe watershed´swatershed´s availableavailable capacitycapacity • Coclé del Norte 40+ • Gatún Lake deepening 6 (with Caño Sucio & Río Indio ) • Lower Trinidad 4 • Coclé del Norte 40+ • Recycling ponds 4 (with tunnel to Río Indio ) Gatún Locks • Storage/Pumping from 31 • Cirí Grande 3 Coclé del Norte to Toabré • Salud 2 (with Caño Sucio & Río Indio ) • Raise Gatún Lake level 2 • Coclé del Norte at 65M 25 • Raise Madden Lake level 1 (with tunnel to Río Indio ) • Lagarto 1 • Toabré and Caño Sucio 23 (with Río Indio ) • Pacora (potable water) 1 • Caño Sucio ( Río Indio )14 • Caimito (potable water) 1 • Río Indio 11 • Pumping one lockage 1 of saltwater to Gatún Lake Alto Chagres 8
* One lockage represents 55 million gallons of water. WaterWater StudiesStudies