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CITIES/TOWNS and VILLAGES Projections 2020

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CITIES/TOWNS and VILLAGES Projections 2020 CITIES/TOWNS AND VILLAGES Projections 2020 Private Bag 0024, Gaborone Tel: 3671300 Fax: 3952201 Toll Free: 0800 600 200 Private Bag F193, City of Francistown Botswana Tel. 241 5848, Fax. 241 7540 Private Bag 32 Ghanzi Tel: 371 5723 Fax: 659 7506 Private Bag 47 Maun Tel: 371 5716 Fax: 686 4327 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.statsbots.org.bw Cities/Towns And Villages Projections 2020 Published by Statistics Botswana Private Bag 0024, Gaborone Website: www.statsbots.org.bw E-mail: [email protected] Contact: Census and Demography Analysis Unit Tel: (267) 3671300 Fax: (267) 3952201 November, 2020 COPYRIGHT RESERVED Extracts may be published if source Is duly acknowledged Cities/Towns and Villages Projections 2020 Preface This stats brief provides population projections for the year 2020. In this stats brief, the reference point of the population projections was the 2011 Population and Housing Census, in which the total population by age and sex is available. Population projections give a picture of what the future size and structure of the population by sex and age might look like. It is based on knowledge of the past trends, and, for the future, on assumptions made for three components of population change being fertility, mortality and migration. The projections are derived from mathematical formulas that use current populations and rates of growth to estimate future populations. The population projections presented is for Cities, Towns and Villages excluding associated localities for the year 2020. Generally, population projections are more accurate for large populations than for small populations and are more accurate for the near future than the distant future. It is therefore important to note that estimates for smaller villages should be used with caution. They are a good initiative that provides an estimate of the population size into the future. They also provide an impetus for the Policy makers to have established evidence-based decision making processes as well as equitable allocation of resources. The report will be useful for planning and other purpose at locality level. _________________ Dr Burton S. Mguni Statistician General November 2020 Statistics Botswana i Cities/Towns and Villages Projections 2020 Table of Contents Preface....................................................................................................................................................................i INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................................................................1 Population Projections Methodology Used........................................................................................................................1 Table 1: Population Projections by Cities/Towns and Sex -2020.........................................................................................1 Table 1.1: Distribution of Census Population by Sex.............................................................................................................2 Table 1.2: Distribution of Projected Population by Sex........................................................................................................2 Table 2: Population Projections by Cities/Towns and Sex -2020................................................................................3 Figure 1: Percentage Population Distribution of Cities/Towns-2020................................................................................3 Appendix.....................................................................................................................................................4 Table 3 : Projected Population by Age group and Sex -2020 (Medium Scenario)............................................................5 Table 4: Population Estimates by Cities/Towns and Age Group- 2020.........................................................................6 Table 5: Population Estimates by District and Age Group -2020...................................................................................7 Table 6: Population Estimates by District and Age Group-2020.....................................................................................8 Table 7: Population Estimates By District and Age Group -2020..................................................................................10 Table 8: Population Estimates by Village and Sex-2020..................................................................................................11 Table 9: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Barolong District)-2020..................................................................12 Table 10: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Ngwaketse West)-2020................................................................13 Table 11: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (South East District)-2020....................................................................13 Table 12: Population Estimates of Village and Sex ( Kweneng East)-2020........................................................................14 Table 13: Population Estimates by village and Sex (Kweneng West District)-2020...........................................................15 Table 14: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Kgatleng District)-2020.................................................................16 Table 15: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Serowe Palapye District)-2020....................................................17 Table 16: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Central Mahalapye District)-2020.................................................18 Table 17: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Central Bobonong)-2020...............................................................19 Table 18: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Central Boteti District-2020)............................................................20 Table 19: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Central Tutume District)-2020).......................................................21 Table 20: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (North East District)-2020.................................................................22 Table 21: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Ngamiland District)-2020............................................................23 Table 22: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Ngamiland West District) - 2020.................................................24 Table 23: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Chobe District)-2020.......................................................................25 Table 24: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Ghanzi District)-2020....................................................................25 Table 25: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Kgalagadi North District)-2020...................................................26 Table 26: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Kgalagadi South)-2020..............................................................26 Statistics Botswana ii Cities/Towns and Villages Projections 2020 INTRODUCTION This brief provides supplementary population projections for Cities, Towns and Major villages for the period of 2020. In this publication, the starting point of these population projections is the 2011 Population and Housing Census, in which the total population by age and sex is available. The size and composition of the future population have been projected to 2020. Population projections can be described as an illustration of growth and change in population which occurs if certain assumptions of the level of fertility, mortality and migration were to prevail over a period of projections. Statistics Botswana has done a similar exercise after the 2011 Population and Housing Census by producing a population projections publication (2011-2026). The document developed projections at a national level using the Cohort component (the preferred method of population projection). Population Projections Methodology Used The most basic methods of calculating numerical population change over a period of time is the balancing equation: P1+ (B-D) + (I-E) = Pt Where P1 = is the population at base period B = is the number of births in the population during period 0 D= is the number of Deaths in the population during period 0 I= is the number of Immigrants into population during the period 0 E = is the number of emigrants from the population during the period t Pt = is the population at time t The population of a given area can change as a result of fertility (people being born), Mortality (people dying), immigration (people moving in) and Emigration (people moving out). The assumptions are based on demographic trends observed between 2001 and 2011. Given an annual increase of 1.9% a geometric series methodology for projections is applied. ^t Pt=Po(1+r) Where Pt= is the population at time t PO= is the Base population at time o r= annual growth rate t=interval time Table 1 below illustrates comparisons between the 2011 Population and housing census , the 2017 Botswana Demographic Survey and the 2020 projected population. The the total population for the 2011 Botswana Population and Housing Census (PHC), was 2,024,904 with an annual growth rate of 1.9 percent. Projections following the 2011 PHC estimated the population of Botswana to reach 2,374,698 in 2020 with approximately 50.7 percent of females and 49.3 percent of males. The 2017 Botswana Demographic Survey estimated the population at
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