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Demographic and Economic Activity in the Four Orange Basin States

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Demographic and Economic Activity in the Four Orange Basin States Orange IWRMP Task 10: Demographics & Economic Activity Study Name: Orange River Integrated Water Resources Management Plan Report Title: Demographic and Economic Activity in the four Orange Basin States Submitted By: WRP Consulting Engineers, Jeffares and Green, Sechaba Consulting, WCE Pty Ltd, Water Surveys Botswana (Pty) Ltd Authors: D Hall, G Jennings Date of Issue: August 2007 Distribution: Botswana: DWA: 2 copies (Katai, Setloboko) Lesotho: Commissioner of Water: 2 copies (Ramosoeu, Nthathakane) Namibia: MAWRD: 2 copies (Amakali) South Africa: DWAF: 2 copies (Pyke, van Niekerk) GTZ: 2 copies (Vogel, Mpho) Reports: Review of Existing Infrastructure in the Orange River Catchment Review of Surface Hydrology in the Orange River Catchment Flood Management Evaluation of the Orange River Review of Groundwater Resources in the Orange River Catchment Environmental Considerations Pertaining to the Orange River Summary of Water Requirements from the Orange River Water Quality in the Orange River Demographic and Economic Activity in the four Orange Basin States Current Analytical Methods and Technical Capacity of the four Orange Basin States Institutional Structures in the four Orange Basin States Legislation and Legal Issues Surrounding the Orange River Catchment Summary Report 13/11/2007 i Final Orange IWRMP Task 10: Demographics & Economic Activity TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 2 2 OVERVIEW OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN THE BASIN ................................................. 4 3 BOTSWANA ............................................................................................................................ 6 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 6 3.2 History of Census Taking in Botswana ............................................................................. 6 3.3 Quality Control Measures .................................................................................................. 9 3.3.1 Census Committees ..................................................................................................... 9 3.4 Other Relevant Surveys .................................................................................................. 10 3.5 Demographic overview of Botswana .............................................................................. 10 3.6 Demographics of the South East .................................................................................... 11 3.7 Impact of HIV/AIDS ......................................................................................................... 14 3.8 Water Demand ................................................................................................................ 16 3.8.1 Water Demands for the Molopo (Orange) River Basin .............................................. 21 4 LESOTHO .............................................................................................................................. 24 4.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 24 4.2 History of Census Taking in Lesotho .............................................................................. 24 4.3 Quality .............................................................................................................................. 25 4.4 The 2001 Lesotho Demographic Survey ........................................................................ 27 4.5 Broad Demographic Trends ............................................................................................ 28 4.5.1 Internal Migration ........................................................................................................ 28 4.5.2 External Migration ....................................................................................................... 29 4.5.3 The Demographic Impacts of HIV/AIDS .................................................................... 30 5 NAMIBIA ................................................................................................................................ 34 5.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................... 34 5.2 Introduction to census issues .......................................................................................... 38 13/11/2007 ii Final Orange IWRMP Task 10: Demographics & Economic Activity 5.3 Background on census issues ........................................................................................ 38 5.4 Census results ................................................................................................................. 39 5.5 Impacts of HIV/AIDS ....................................................................................................... 43 5.6 HIV/AIDS Trends ............................................................................................................. 45 5.7 Looking Ahead................................................................................................................. 46 5.8 Key Namibian Literature .................................................................................................. 48 6 SOUTH AFRICA .................................................................................................................... 49 6.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 49 6.2 Method ............................................................................................................................. 49 6.3 The Orange River Basin & Demographics in South Africa ............................................. 49 6.4 Official Demographic Statistics - STATSSA ................................................................... 59 6.5 Census 1996 ................................................................................................................... 61 6.5.1 Census 1996 Background .......................................................................................... 61 6.5.2 Census 1996 Problems and Results .......................................................................... 61 6.6 Census 2001 – “How the count was done” ..................................................................... 62 6.6.1 Census 2001 Background .......................................................................................... 62 6.6.2 Management Structure & Planning ............................................................................ 62 6.6.3 Pre-enumeration ......................................................................................................... 64 6.6.4 Enumeration ............................................................................................................... 66 6.6.5 Data Processing ......................................................................................................... 71 6.6.6 Adjustments, Analysis, Results & Dissemination ....................................................... 72 6.7 Census 2001 Results ...................................................................................................... 77 6.8 STATSSA Post Census Statistics ................................................................................... 77 6.9 Demographic Data from Local Government Sources ..................................................... 79 6.10 Migrancy .......................................................................................................................... 79 6.11 The Impact of HIV / AIDS on Demographics .................................................................. 82 6.11.1 STATSSA HIV/AIDS Data .......................................................................................... 85 13/11/2007 iii Final Orange IWRMP Task 10: Demographics & Economic Activity 6.11.2 ASSA HIV/AIDS Data ................................................................................................. 87 6.12 Demographics of the Inter-basin Transfer Areas ............................................................ 89 6.12.1 The Tugela-Vaal Transfer Scheme ............................................................................ 89 6.12.2 The Orange-Fish Transfer Scheme ........................................................................... 92 6.12.3 Johannesburg Metropolitan Area ............................................................................... 96 6.12.4 The Lesotho Highlands Water Project ....................................................................... 96 7 REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DATA .......................................................................... 97 7.1 Demographic Health Surveys ......................................................................................... 97 7.2 World Bank Data ............................................................................................................. 99 7.3 Other Useful Data Sets ................................................................................................. 100 7.4 Data on Migration .......................................................................................................... 100 7.5 Data on Gender ............................................................................................................
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