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Quarterly Market Report APRIL 2017

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Quarterly Market Report APRIL 2017 HOUSTON OFFICE | Q1 2017 Quarterly Market Report APRIL 2017 Supply & Demand Total Net Absorption (SF) Total Vacant (%) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2.5 22 2.0 21 Office Market Millions 1.5 20 Have we reached the bottom of the office market 1.0 19 in Houston? While many seem to be in agreement that the worst is now behind us, the city is still very 0.5 18 much in an office market slump. Houston’s overall 0.0 17 vacancy rate rose to 20.0% in Q1 2017, an increase -0.5 16 of 100 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 260 -1.0 15 basis points year-over-year. Net absorption stood at -1.5 14 negative 778,758 sq. ft. as of the quarter’s end— on the heels of the more than 1.4 million sq. ft. of -2.0 13 negative absorption for full-year 2016. In addition, -2.5 12 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 both Houston citywide overall rent and leasing 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 activity are down from last quarter, as well as from Q1 2016. However, despite some market sluggishness, available sublease space is down 3.5%, and the Market Indicators amount of space in the construction pipeline has Current Prior Quarter Year Ago declined by 40.0%, quarter–over-quarter. Q1 2017 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Net Absorption (sq. ft.) Total -778,758 -757,9 54 -198,686 Houston Economy Direct -936,272 -625,127 -453,852 The Houston metro area reported 125,005 new Sublease 157,514 -132,827 255,166 residents from July 1, 2015 to July 1, 2016, and Houston ranks fifth in the 10 most populous metro Leasing Activity (sq. ft.) Total 2,201,661 3,368,283 3,215,348 areas in the country. Houston job growth increased Direct 1,865,930 2,860,440 2,786,789 by 6,200, with Government (led by colleges and school districts) and Professional and Business Sublease 335,731 507,8 43 428,559 Services responsible for the lion’s share. Trade, 25.7 25.0 23.6 Transportation, and Utilities had the largest drop. Availabiity w/Sublease (%) Total All told, the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.9%. Direct 21.3 20.6 19.7 The Greater Houston Partnership forecasts one more soft year in 2017, albeit with an encouraging Vacancy w/Sublease (%) Total 20.0 19.0 17.4 job forecast of adding 30,000 new jobs. More than Direct 17.9 16.8 15.5 7,300 of that total are expected to come from the Avg Asking Rent ($) Total 27.76 27.83 28.58 Professional and Business Services supersector, and 2,200 in Financial Activities. Direct 28.55 28.66 28.93 Other positive indicators are the Houston Purchasing Sublease 21.06 21.06 25.17 Managers Index, which came in at 54.2 in February, Construction (sq. ft.) 1,992,053 3,362,657 5,088,489 signaling economic expansion in metro Houston Deliveries (sq. ft.) 1,721,132 0 670,025 for the fifth consecutive month; the closely tracked Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count at 809 rigs; and the Inventory (sq. ft.) 228,097,918 226,376,786 223,443,265 NYMEX WTI Spot Prices, closing at $47.97/barrel. Although 2017 may not be an exceptional year for the Houston-area economy, it should be a boost on the path back to robust growth. HOUSTON | AUSTIN | SAN ANTONIO www.naipartners.com HOUSTON OFFICE | Q1 2017 Quarterly Market Report Broker’s Perspective n the first quarter of 2017, the Houston office market showed Isome encouraging signs as it began to lift itself out of the soft environment that has lingered in many of its submarkets. During the two years prior to 2017, we witnessed an onslaught of sublease space being added to the market, totaling more than 12 million sq. ft. Today, we are on our way down from that mark and closing in “Tenants in the market on 11.1 million sq. ft. citywide. This is due in part to the rising rig counts (nearly double that of Q1 2016), rising oil prices, other non- for space now or over energy related industry growth, and natural lease expirations. the next few years While I won’t go so far as to forecast what I think will happen going can take advantage forward, by recognizing trends in the market one can position oneself of landlords taking to take advantage when opportunity arises. Market indicators such an increasingly as sublease availability, vacancy rates, and absorption rates are all critical data points when evaluating the future strength of the office aggressive approach.” market. Looking at the trends seen in 2016 and thus far in Q1 2017, I feel comfortable saying the market softening has “bottomed out.” Tenants in the market for space now or over the next few years can take advantage of landlords taking an increasingly aggressive approach when vying for prospective tenants. These aggressive incentives often come in the form of rental rate reductions, large concession packages, additional free rent periods, free parking, and greater building amenities. As the trend continues for tenants to take on new or additional Matt Gaby space, or renegotiate existing leases, the market will once again Associate Broker shift back to favor landlords. A very realistic prediction of when NAI Partners this shift might happen is over the next 14 to 18 months (think Q2 to Q4 2018). This begs the question: why do many companies only seem to renew on high points? Based on where we are in the current market cycle—the Houston commercial real estate market historically operates in seven- to eight-year cycles—office tenants today have tremendous negotiating leverage. To that end, on average we are now seeing longer lease terms signed, even for smaller companies, who wish to capture the favorable market terms for as long as possible. Timing, as they say, is everything. www.naipartners.com 2 HOUSTON OFFICE | Q1 2017 Quarterly Market Report MARKET OVERVIEW Net Absorption Net Absorption Direct vs Sublease Houston ended the first quarter of 2017 with negative Net Absorption Direct (SF) Net Absorption Sublease (SF) 778,758 sq. ft. of net absorption. Direct space 2.5 represented negative 936,272 sq. ft. of that total, Millions 1.5 and sublease space was responsible for positive 157,514 sq. ft. 0.5 Largely contributing to the direct negative -0.5 absorption was Freeport-McMorran’s 355,908 sq. ft. of sublease space at 717 Texas Avenue that was -1.5 released prior to the August 2018 term date, moving it over to direct space. In addition, 500 Jefferson had -2.5 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 approximately 277,424 sq. ft. of sublease space with 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 a lease expiration date of 2030 that was dropped when the property was recently sold, adding to the amount of direct space available. Also, 92,637 sq. ft. of direct space at 1401 McKinney became vacant in Historical Vacancy & Availability Q1, resulting in additional negative absorption. Total Vacant (%) Total Available (%) 28 Availability and Vacancy 25.7 24 The overall availability rate, which measures the total amount of space being marketed for lease, 21 rose to 25.7%, an increase of 70 basis points from 20.0 the previous quarter’s 25.0%. Available sublease 17 space has dipped from a peak of 12.0 million sq. 15.0 ft. in Q3 2016 to 11.5 million sq. ft. at the end of 14 2016 and now settling at 11.1 million sq. ft. as of 12.4 the first quarter of 2017. Before 2014, available 10 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 sublease space in Houston had been averaging 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 about 3.3 million sq. ft. Since the oil downturn began to manifest in the office market in 2014, available sublease space in Houston has more than tripled. Select Sale & Lease Transactions With everything considered, the sublease market seems to have reached its bottom; however, there Sale/Buyer Building/Address SF Submarket is more than 4.5 million sq. ft. of sublease space 5 Houston Center that will be returned to landlords in the form of direct Energy Center 1 space through 2019. The large sublease market is Spear Street Capital 515 Post Oak Blvd. 1,187,458 Houston a critical element in regaining positive momentum 3120 Buffalo Speedway Greenway and could be viewed as beneficial as the big blocks Spear Street Capital 3401 W. Alabama St. 450,000 Plaza become more competitive. 500 Jefferson St. Jefferson Smith LLC Jefferson Towers at Cullen Center 390,479 CBD The five largest blocks of contiguous sublease 13101 & 13105 NW Fwy space currently available are 820,853 sq. ft. in One KRM Properties Northwest Crossing I & III 382,726 Northwest Shell Plaza; 510,502 sq. ft. in Two Allen Center (both in the CBD); 378,209 sq. ft. in West Memorial Plaza; 370,397 sq. ft. in Three WestLake Park; and Lease/Tenant Building/Address Type/Deal SF Submarket 534,098 sq. ft. in Four WestLake Park (each in the City Place Drive- Energy Corridor). HP Springwoods Village Direct/New 378,000 Woodlands Targa Resources 811 Louisiana St. Direct/New 127,734 CBD Crestwood Sublease/ Partners 811 Main St. New 54,215 CBD Energy IHS, Inc. 1401 Enclave Pky Direct/New 44,846 Corridor www.naipartners.com 3 HOUSTON OFFICE | Q1 2017 Quarterly Market Report MARKET OVERVIEW Asking Rent Historical Gross Average Asking Rent Overall Class A Class B The market saw overall full-service average asking $36 rates, which include real estate taxes, insurance, $35.01 maintenance and any fees typically included in a $32 lease agreement, fall $0.07 per sq.
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