STRAINED BEDFELLOWS: WHAT WE CAN DO TO MAKE OPEN ECONOMIES INCLUSIVE

Tharman Shanmugaratnam SINGAPORE’S DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND COORDINATING MINISTER FOR ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL POLICIES

Eighteenth Annual Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecture and Dinner Wednesday, May 30, 2018 Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore ABOUT THE STAVROS NIARCHOS FOUNDATION LECTURE SERIES

The annual Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecture Series at the Peterson Institute for International was established in 2001 through the generous support of the Stavros Niarchos Foundation. The Series enables the Institute to present a world leader of economic policy and thought for a major address each year on a topic of central concern to the US and international policy communities.

The Stavros Niarchos Foundation [(SNF) (www.SNF.org)] is one of the world’s leading private, international philanthropic organizations, making grants in the areas of arts and culture, education, health and sports, and social welfare. Since 1996, the Foundation has committed more than $2.5 billion, through more than 4,000 grants to nonprofit organizations in 124 nations around the world.

The SNF funds organizations and projects, worldwide, that aim to achieve a broad, lasting and positive impact, for society at large, and exhibit strong leadership and sound management. The Foundation also supports projects that facilitate the formation of public-private partnerships as an effective means for serving public welfare.

Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore Eighteenth Annual Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecture and Dinner 3

PROGRAM

5:30 pm WELCOME Dr. Adam S. Posen PRESIDENT, PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

Michael A. Peterson CHAIRMAN, BOARD OF DIRECTORS, PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

Mr. Vasili Tsamis GROUP CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER, STAVROS NIARCHOS FOUNDATION

LECTURE, Q & A Tharman Shanmugaratnam DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER OF SINGAPORE

6:45 pm RECEPTION IN THE ANTHONY M. SOLOMON SCULPTURE GARDEN

7:00 pm DINNER By invitation only

Eighteenth Annual Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecture and Dinner 5 Tharman Shanmugaratnam THARMAN SHANMUGARATNAM

Tharman Shanmugaratnam is Deputy Prime Minister and Coordi- nating Minister for Economic and Social Policies in the Singapore Cabinet. He is also Chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), Singapore’s central bank and financial regulator.

Tharman chairs the Group of Thirty, an independent global council of leading economic and financial policy-makers, having succeeded Jean-Claude Trichet in January 2017. He also chairs the G20 Eminent Persons Group on Global Financial Governance, which was appointed in April 2017 to recommend reforms to the system of multilateral financial institutions. He earlier led the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC), the key policy forum of the IMF, from 2011–2014; he was its first Asian chair.

Tharman has spent his working life in public service, in roles related to education and economic policies. He served as Minister for Finance for eight years (until 2015), and as Minister for Education for five years prior to that. In addition to his current responsibilities in government, he is a board member of the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) and chairs its Investment Strategies Committee.

Tharman is MP for Jurong GRC, where he has been elected four times since he entered politics in 2001. He studied at the London School of Economics (where he is an Honorary Fellow) and Cambridge University. He also obtained a Masters in Public Administration at Harvard University, where he was named a Lucius N Littauer Fellow in recognition of outstanding performance.

Eighteenth Annual Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecture and Dinner 7 ABOUT THE PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is a private, nonpartisan nonprofit institution committed to rigorous, intellectually open, and indepth study and discussion of international economic policy. Its purpose is to identify and analyze important issues to make globalization beneficial and sustainable for the people of the and the world and to develop and communicate practical new approaches for dealing with challenges confronting the global economy.

The Institute attempts to anticipate emerging issues and to be ready with practical ideas, presented in useful, accessible formats, to inform and shape public debate. Its audience includes government officials and legislators, business and labor leaders, management and staff at international organizations, university-based scholars and their stu- dents, experts at other research institutions and nongovernmental organizations, the media, and the public at large.

Our staff of about 70 includes 20 senior researchers, as well as 15 non- resident fellows, all distinguished for their combination of research expertise and policy experience. The Institute’s agenda empha- sizes international trade and investment, international finance and exchange rates, macroeconomic policy and crisis response, globaliza- tion and human welfare, and studies of key economic regions. Insti- tute staff have unique expertise on the major economies with special reference to Brazil, China, the European Union, Japan, Korea, and the Middle East, as well as the United States itself and its neighbors Canada and Mexico. Current priorities include: n improving macroeconomic policy after the global financial crisis; n truth telling about the benefits of globalization and the costs of closed economies; n the rebalancing of China’s growth model and its impact on the world economy; n globalization, inequality, and labor market adjustment; n exchange rate interventions and reform of the international mon- etary system; 8 Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore n regional trade agreements and multinational investment, notably the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP); n practical growth models for Europe, Japan, and the United States; and n financial stability, including cost-benefit analysis of global regula- tion. Our research has provided some of the intellectual foundations for many major international policy initiatives of the past three and a half decades: n reforms of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), initiated by the G-20 in 2009–10; n reform of US sanctions policy; n quantitative easing and adapting monetary policy to a low inter- est rate world; n creation of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum and the TPP initiative; n initiation and implementation of the Strategic and Economic Dia- logue between the United States and China; n the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and other US free trade agreements (notably with Korea); n adoption of international banking standards and broader financial regulatory reforms; n countercyclical fiscal policy and increased female labor force par- ticipation in Japan; n the restoration of trade promotion authority in the United States; and n linking fiscal stimulus and structural reform in the euro area. Other influential analyses have addressed: n economic reform in the European Union, the former communist countries, and Latin America (including what became known as the Washington Consensus); n foreign direct investment into and out of the United States; n the sources, benefits, and growth of services trade; n the impact on wages of trade liberalization; n reconsidering the “Resource Curse” and the “Middle Income Trap;” n the links between gender and diversity and corporate profitabili- ty; and n measures of currency manipulation and of equilibrium exchange rates. Our award-winning building in Washington, DC houses an accom- plished team of researchers, fellows, and professional staff. We some- times partner with independent think tanks in China, Europe, and elsewhere to broaden the scope of our research and outreach.

Institute events bring together a diverse array of international spe- cialists from government, business, and the policy community to engage in constructive dialogue. We create audiovisual materials, interactive graphics, and social media content to deepen the public’s Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore understand­ingEighteenth of the issues. Annual Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecture and Dinner 9 PRAISE FOR THE PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

“There is no institute anywhere in the world…that comes close to having the breadth and depth that the [Peterson] Institute for International Economics has in its devotion to international economic studies all over the world.” Stuart Eizenstat, FORMER DEPUTY SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY AND UNDERSECRETARY OF STATE

“No one has led analysis and discussion of international economics like the Peterson Institute.” Tom Keene, HOST OF BLOOMBERG TELEVISION’S SURVEILLANCE

“…research institutes vary widely in both quality and honesty. Among the best on both counts is the [Peterson] Institute for International Economics.” Paul R. Krugman, DISTINGUISHED PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS, GRADUATE CENTER OF THE CITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK

“The Peterson Institute does the single best job of think tanks in this town, hands down, of having the best audience. The discussions that go on here are tremendous.” Maya MacGuineas, PRESIDENT OF THE COMMITTEE FOR A RESPONSIBLE FEDERAL BUDGET

“I have continued to follow with interest the important and meaningful work of PIIE. You and your colleagues continue to be a strong, serious, and thoughtful voice on the important economic and geopolitical issues of the day. In my view, the Peterson Institute is singular and distinct in that regard.” Thomas (Mack) McLarty, PRESIDENT OF MCLARTY ASSOCIATES AND SPECIAL ENVOY FOR THE AMERICAS DURING THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION

“In terms of [the Peterson Institute for International Economics’] ability to shape policy discussion and influence the outcome, there isn’t an organization outside government that can touch it.” Steven Pearlstein, WASHINGTON POST

10 Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore “There is no better example of ... the contribution that ... our think tanks [make to] our public policy process ... than the Institute for International Economics.” Lawrence H. Summers, FORMER US SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY AND FORMER DIRECTOR OF THE WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL

“…the emblematic think tank of our time.” Jean-Claude Trichet, FORMER PRESIDENT, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

“One of the things that has always astounded me about [the Institute] is they always have a book coming out about the subject that you just realized was important.” David Wessel, WALL STREET JOURNAL AND BROOKINGS INSTITUTION

“…without any doubt the preeminent organization in the world operating outside government and outside universities…in analysis of international economic problems. Its publications over the years have been an invaluable reference source for all journalists working the field…” Martin Wolf, CHIEF ECONOMICS COMMENTATOR, FINANCIAL TIMES

“One of the reasons I’ve enjoyed being at the Peterson Institute [for International Economics] is that you find places that will now and then have policy proposals and some that do scholarship. It is very rare to find one that really combines the two in a very effective way.” Robert B. Zoellick, FORMER US TRADE REPRESENTATIVE AND FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE

“The Institute is needed more today than ever before.” Carla Hills, FORMER US TRADE REPRESENTATIVE

Eighteenth Annual Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecture and Dinner 11 SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF

Adam S. Posen Caroline Freund Robert Z. Lawrence PRESIDENT SENIOR FELLOW NONRESIDENT SENIOR (on leave for public FELLOW Marcus Noland service) EXECUTIVE VICE Mary E. Lovely PRESIDENT AND Jason Furman NONRESIDENT SENIOR DIRECTOR OF STUDIES NONRESIDENT SENIOR FELLOW FELLOW Steven R. Weisman Theodore H. Moran VICE PRESIDENT FOR Joseph E. Gagnon NONRESIDENT SENIOR PUBLICATIONS AND SENIOR FELLOW FELLOW COMMUNICATIONS Anna Gelpern Lindsay Oldenski NONRESIDENT SENIOR NONRESIDENT SENIOR C. Fred Bergsten FELLOW FELLOW SENIOR FELLOW AND DIRECTOR EMERITUS Egor Gornostay Sherman Robinson RESEARCH STATISTICIAN NONRESIDENT SENIOR Olivier Blanchard AND QUALITY CONTROL FELLOW C. FRED BERGSTEN COORDINATOR SENIOR FELLOW Jeffrey J. Schott Cullen S. Hendrix SENIOR FELLOW Chad P. Bown NONRESIDENT SENIOR REGINALD JONES SENIOR FELLOW David J. Stockton FELLOW NONRESIDENT SENIOR Patrick Honohan FELLOW Lee G. Branstetter NONRESIDENT SENIOR NONRESIDENT SENIOR FELLOW Arvind Subramanian FELLOW DENNIS WEATHERSTONE Gary Clyde Hufbauer SENIOR FELLOW (on Martin Chorzempa NONRESIDENT SENIOR leave for public service) RESEARCH FELLOW FELLOW Edwin M. Truman William R. Cline Douglas A. Irwin NONRESIDENT SENIOR SENIOR FELLOW NONRESIDENT SENIOR FELLOW FELLOW Jérémie Cohen- Nicolas Véron Setton Olivier Jeanne SENIOR FELLOW RESEARCH FELLOW SENIOR FELLOW Justin Wolfers Monica de Bolle J. Bradford Jensen NONRESIDENT SENIOR SENIOR FELLOW NONRESIDENT SENIOR FELLOW FELLOW José De Gregorio Jeromin Zettelmeyer NONRESIDENT SENIOR Simon Johnson SENIOR FELLOW FELLOW SENIOR FELLOW

Simeon Djankov Jacob Funk NONRESIDENT SENIOR Kirkegaard FELLOW SENIOR FELLOW

Karen Dynan Nicholas R. Lardy NONRESIDENT SENIOR ANTHONY M. SOLOMON FELLOW SENIOR FELLOW

12 Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore BOARD OF DIRECTORS

The Board of Directors’ principal goal is to protect and strengthen PIIE’s excel- lence as an independent, nonpartisan, and intellectually rigorous policy research organization that contributes to the public’s understanding of the challenges and opportunities posed by the world’s interdependent economy. The Board of Directors is comprised of a diverse group of business leaders, former high-level government officials, international civil servants, and distinguished scholars.

The Executive Committee (indicated by *) of our Board of Directors bears legal responsibility for PIIE’s direction, while regularly evaluating PIIE’s performance in pursuit of our mission.

Senior Management is responsible for PIIE’s agenda in consultation with the Board of Directors, the research staff, and other stakeholders.

*Michael A. Peterson, CHAIRMAN *Hutham S. Olayan *Stephen Freidheim, CHAIRMAN, Peter R. Orszag EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE James W. Owens *Caroline Atkinson Jonathan Pruzan Ajay Banga Ginni M. Rometty *C. Fred Bergsten *Lynn Forester de Rothschild Mark T. Bertolini *Richard E. Salomon Ben van Beurden Sheikh Hamad Saud Al-Sayari Neeti Bhalla Johnson *Lawrence H. Summers Frank Brosens Mostafa Terrab Ronnie C. Chan Mark Tucker *Susan M. Collins Jim Umpleby Richard N. Cooper Ronald A. Williams Jason Cummins *Robert B. Zoellick Barry Eichengreen Min Zhu *Stanley Fischer Peter Fisher Honorary Directors Jacob A. Frenkel George David Evan G. Greenberg Alan Greenspan Maurice R. Greenberg Carla A. Hills Herbjorn Hansson Frank E. Loy Stephen Howe, Jr. George P. Shultz Jay Jacobs Jean-Claude Trichet Hugh F. Johnston Paul A. Volcker *Michael Klein Ernesto Zedillo Nobuyori Kodaira Charles D. Lake II Andrew N. Liveris Sergio Marchionne Pip McCrostie

Eighteenth Annual Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecture and Dinner 13 PREVIOUS STAVROS NIARCHOS FOUNDATION LECTURERS

May 16, 2017 Lord Mervyn King, FORMER GOVERNOR OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND

May 24, 2016 David Lipton, FIRST DEPUTY MANAGING DIRECTOR OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

April 20, 2015 Agustín Carstens, GOVERNOR OF THE BANK OF MEXICO

April 29, 2014 Mari Elka Pangestu, FORMER MINISTER OF TOURISM AND CREATIVE ECONOMY OF

October 1, 2013 Antonis C. Samaras, FORMER PRIME MINISTER OF GREECE

May 16, 2013 C. Fred Bergsten, SENIOR FELLOW AND DIRECTOR EMERITUS, PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

May 17, 2012 Jean-Claude Trichet, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

May 19, 2011 John Lipsky, FORMER ACTING MANAGING DIRECTOR OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

May 13, 2010 Niall Ferguson, LAURENCE A. TISCH PROFESSOR OF HISTORY AT HARVARD UNIVERSITY

14 Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore May 7, 2009 Nandan M. Nilekani, FORMER CO-CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS, INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES, LTD

May 8, 2008 Peter Aven, FORMER PRESIDENT OF ALFA BANK

May 9, 2007 Heizō Takenaka, FORMER MINISTER FOR ECONOMIC POLICY OF JAPAN

May 8, 2006 Mario Monti, FORMER COMMISSIONER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION FOR COMPETITION POLICY

May 23, 2005 Long Yongtu, FORMER VICE MINISTER OF CHINA’S MINISTRY OF FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION

March 23, 2004 Lawrence H. Summers, FORMER US SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY AND FORMER DIRECTOR OF THE WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL

May 19, 2003 Ernesto Zedillo, FORMER PRESIDENT OF MEXICO

October 24, 2001 Alan Greenspan, FORMER CHAIRMAN OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore Eighteenth Annual Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecture and Dinner 15 1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036-1903 USA +1.202.328.9000 www.piie.com

Cover photo: REUTERS/Kacper Pempel