MONTHLY July 2021 CONTENTS 13 17 29 U.S. CONCESSIONS ON NORD RUSSIA MAKES MORE RUSSIA IS SECOND-BIGGEST STREAM 2 ENCOURAGE RUSSIA AGGRESSIVE MOVES OIL PRODUCER ONLY TO U.S. TO GO TO WAR IN DONBAS 3 PUTIN’S UKRAINE COMPLEX AGAIN MAKES 17 RUSSIA SENDS AID TO CUBA REGIME ITSELF FELT 4 PUTIN VOWS SUPPORT TO LUKASHENKO 19 RUSSIA PLAYS DOUBLE GAME IN AMID EU SANCTIONS AFGHANISTAN 6 RUSSIA PROPOSES RESET IN RELATIONS 20 RUSSIA DISPLAYS MILITARY POWER IN WITH FRANCE CENTRAL ASIA 7 TENSIONS GO HIGH IN DONBAS AS RUSSIA 22 RUSSIAN PASSPORT HOLDERS IN DONBAS BREACHES TRUCE MAY VOTE IN DUMA ELECTIONS 9 OPEC+ SIGNS DEAL TO RAISE OIL OUTPUT 23 RUSSIA FEELS CONCERNED BY UK- EACH MONTH UKRAINE MILITARY COOPERATION 10 RUSSIAN FSB DETAINS ESTONIAN CONSUL 25 ALLY OR VASSAL: ARMENIA IS FORCED TO LOOK FOR RUSSIAN HELP 11 RUSSIA SELLS TIGR ARMORED VEHICLES 26 ASTANA TRIANGLE IS NOT YET DEAD AND OTHER MILITARY PRODUCTS TO AFRICA 13 U.S. CONCESSIONS ON NORD STREAM 2 28 RUSSIA DEPLOYS MORE MISSILES TO THE ENCOURAGE RUSSIA TO GO TO WAR BALTIC SEA 15 PUTIN WARNS OF RUSSIA’S HYPERSONIC 29 RUSSIA IS SECOND-BIGGEST OIL NUCLEAR WEAPONS AT NAVAL PARADE PRODUCER ONLY TO U.S. 16 RUSSIA MAKES MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVES 30 MOSCOW PLAYS UP DONBAS AS PART OF IN DONBAS THE UKRAINE CONFLICT 2 www.warsawinstitute.org SOURCE: KREMLIN.RU 1 July 2021 PUTIN’S UKRAINE COMPLEX AGAIN MAKES ITSELF FELT The Russian president once again confirmed how painful it is for him to see Ukraine decide for itself and not yield to Moscow’s pressure. Addressing the nation during an annual televised call-in show, Putin came back to an old rhetoric that Ukrainians were not a separate nation, attacking the pro-Western government in Kyiv and claiming the country was “managed from the outside”. t is just a propaganda mantra for internal with the Interfax-Ukraine press agency. “I consumers in Russia”, Zelensky told One example was that Zelensky allegedly journalists, commenting on Putin’s statements had “entrusted Ukraine to full external on Ukraine. During an annual televised call-in management” while officials in Washington, show on June 30, the Russian leader spared Berlin, and Paris decide on the country’s affairs. no words that must have caused outrage in Zelensky ridiculed these claims, saying that, Ukraine. The Ukrainian president commented as the Geneva meeting has shown recently, on Putin’s remarks the next day in an interview the U.S. and Russian leaders cannot make www.warsawinstitute.org 3 any decisions on Ukraine in their bilateral the HMS Defender, a Royal Navy destroyer that talks. Zelensky added he would be meeting approached territorial waters off Crimea on Joe Biden in Washington and Angela Merkel June 23. The Russian leader said there was some in Berlin in the next month. The Ukrainian evidence that outside countries “exploited the president also referred to Putin’s claim that Ukrainian territory militarily.” He said this was Russians and Ukrainians “are the same people.” a provocative action. Issues related to Ukraine “If Ukrainians and Russians were one people, were probably the most discussed ones during then hryvnia, most likely, would circulate the show of other foreign-related topics in Moscow, and a yellow-blue flag would fly though domestic matters dominated the call- over the State Duma,” Zelensky was quoted in program. This confirms that Putin cannot as saying. In turn, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s accept Russia has lost control of Ukraine and foreign minister, said Putin’s claims on “external treats the whole matter ambitiously. Nor will management” mean just one: the Russian he lay down his arms––there will probably be leader wishes Russian officials would decide more tensions between Kyiv and Moscow, with on Ukrainian affairs in Moscow. During the call- the latter’s further war threats. ■ in show, Putin mentioned an incident involving 2 July 2021 PUTIN VOWS SUPPORT TO LUKASHENKO AMID EU SANCTIONS Russia offers comprehensive assistance to Belarus, notably when the European Union introduces sanctions on Lukashenko’s regime, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on July 1. Putin and Lukashenko first had a phone call and then met at the Forum of Regions of Russia and Belarus via video conference. ladimir Putin pledged support to Belarus his country economically. Furthermore, he V that faces sanctions from the European suggested preparing what he named as a long- Union. Some outside forces are trying to term strategy of integration of the Union State destabilize the situation in Belarus, the Russian of Belarus and Russia till 2030. By saying “long- leader told the Forum of Regions of Russia and term,” Lukashenko shows he is unlikely to hand Belarus. The Russian president also rebuffed over power in the country or allow Russia to the European Union for its recent sanctions completely absorb its neighbor. On the agenda against Belarus and called Belarus “the of an earlier Putin-Lukashenko phone call were closest ally of Russia.” The Belarusian leader also economic issues, including a delicate matter emboldened how much Russia had helped of crude and gas prices. The talks and then the 4 www.warsawinstitute.org SOURCE: KREMLIN.RU meeting at the Forum confirm that Lukashenko hoping for some political ones. This is precisely is having a weaker position in negotiations with why Nikolai Patrushev, who heads the Russian Moscow. Putin is taking advantage of the ever- Security Council, flew to Minsk on June 29. The growing pressure the European Union now official is Putin’s right-hand man. No details exerts on the regime of Lukashenko. The latest on his talks with Lukashenko have been made portion of sanctions has dealt a blow to the core public. Perhaps this was just about cementing of Lukashenko’s economic model thus possibly ties between Russian and Belarusian power Belarus will be relying more on some economic ministries, but Patrushev might have gone on a aid from Moscow. Naturally, the Kremlin has mission to gently put pressure on Lukashenko no intention of giving its aid to the regime of to delineate upcoming and controlled shifts in Lukashenko while getting nothing in return. In Belarus whose final stage will be the stepping addition to economic concessions, Moscow is down of Lukashenko as the country’s leader. ■ www.warsawinstitute.org 5 SOURCE: KREMLIN.RU 14 July 2021 RUSSIA PROPOSES RESET IN RELATIONS WITH FRANCE Moscow has for years had its strategic goal to break up the European Union. The Kremlin is now struggling to take advantage of a row inside the EU over the bloc’s policy towards Russia. This has been confirmed by top-level political relations between France and Russia and the corruption of the French political elite. rench President Emmanuel Macron and was also the situation in Ukraine. The two F his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin leaders stressed what they described as “the had a phone call on July 2 to discuss improving particularly important role of the Normandy relations between the EU and Russia, the Elysee format.” This suits the Kremlin while Kyiv is Palace said in a statement. France focused looking to revise the format. The phone call special attention on the “problems of stability Macron had with Putin is an occasion for the and security on the European continent,” French president to flex his political muscles. according to the readout. The Kremlin said He has no intention of giving up on a new it was ready to resume “comprehensive reset with Russia after the defeat at the last and respectful dialogue.” On the agenda EU summit. At that time, some EU countries, 6 www.warsawinstitute.org mostly Poland and the Baltic states, rebuffed back then served as the president, maintained a joint idea from Germany and France to host cordial relations with Moscow. It was the French an EU-Russia summit, suspended past 2014. leader, as the country was then the holder of Another factor in favor of the rapprochement the rotating EU presidency, who negotiated a between Russia and France is the fact that a peace plan for Georgia that ended the Russo- former French prime minister was offered a Georgian war (2008) and was beneficial to job in a Russian company. François Fillon has the Kremlin. After his presidential campaign been named to the board of Russian state oil capsized in 2017, Fillon founded his consulting company Zarubezhneft, the company said on firm, Apteras. In June 2020, Fillon was given June 28. The French official and Alexey Pavlov, a five-year sentence for fraud in a fake-jobs the deputy head of the Federal Agency for State scandal involving his wife and children that Property Management (Rosimushchestvo), got were paid for by the state. The former prime the job after a Russian deputy economy minister minister should spend two years behind and a deputy prime minister quit the board. bars but he appealed against the verdict. He Zarubezhneft is a Russian state-controlled oil traveled to Russia on many occasions to attend company based in Moscow that specializes in conferences and summits where Putin was the exploration, development, and operation of also present, including the Valdai Forum. While oil and gas fields in Russia and outside. Fillon attending the St. Petersburg Economic Forum was in office as the French premier from 2007- in June this year, Fillon called EU sanctions on 2012 at the time when Nicolas Sarkozy, who Russia “stupid and illegal”. ■ 20 July 2021 TENSIONS GO HIGH IN DONBAS AS RUSSIA BREACHES TRUCE Russia is violating truce in the east of Ukraine as tensions are on the rise on the frontline since late June.