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Issues for the US Navy in the Black Sea Region

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Issues for the US Navy in the Black Sea Region CRM D0000572.A2/Final June 2000 Issues for the U.S. Navy in the Black Sea Region: Country Profiles and Recommendations Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Georgia Vladimir Lehovich • Ahmed Hashim CLEARED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Center for Naval Analyses 4401 Ford Avenue • Alexandria, Virginia 22302-1498 Tom Hirschfeld, CNA Senior Analyst, reviewed the reports of this project. Special thanks also to Maurine Dahl- berg and Celinda Ledford for their assistance in preparing this report. Copyright CNA Corporation/Scanned October 2002 Approved for distribution: Peter M. Swartz, Director Regional Issues Team Policy Analysis Division This document represents the best opinion of CNA at the time of issue. It does not necessarily represent the opinion of the Department of the Navy. CLEARED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE For copies of this document call: CNA Document Control and Distribution Section at 703-824-2943. Introduction......................................................................................................... 1 Background.................................................................................................. 1 Approach..................................................................................................... 1 Russia................................................................................................................... 3 Summary...................................................................................................... 3 U.S. policy goals........................................................................................... 6 The domestic situation: political and economic considerations.................... 7 The external situation: regional and global considerations .......................... 9 Security policy: questions of doctrine......................................................... 13 Relations with the United States................................................................. 15 Relations with other regional countries and institutions.............................. 18 Defense issues............................................................................................ 23 The context for engagement...................................................................... 27 Endnotes.................................................................................................... 30 Turkey................................................................................................................ 33 Summary.................................................................................................... 33 United States policy goals........................................................................... 35 The domestic situation: political and economic considerations................... 36 Security perceptions and concerns ............................................................. 44 Relations with other regional countries and the European Union............... 48 Defense issues............................................................................................ 59 The context for Navy engagement.............................................................. 61 Endnotes.................................................................................................... 65 Ukraine.............................................................................................................. 69 Summary.................................................................................................... 69 U.S. policy goals......................................................................................... 72 The domestic situation: political and economic considerations................... 73 Perceptions of security............................................................................... 84 Relations with the United States................................................................. 85 Relations with other regional countries and European institutions.............. 87 Defense issues............................................................................................ 92 The context for engagement...................................................................... 98 Endnotes.................................................................................................. 103 Romania........................................................................................................... 107 Summary.................................................................................................. 107 U.S. policy goals....................................................................................... 109 The domestic situation: political and economic considerations................. 110 Perceptions of security............................................................................. 113 Relations with the United States............................................................... 116 Relations with other regional countries and European institutions............ 117 Romania and the European Security Order.............................................. 119 Defense issues.......................................................................................... 121 The context for engagement.................................................................... 126 Endnotes.................................................................................................. 130 11 Bulgaria............................................................................................................ 131 Siimniary.................................................................................................. 131 U.S. policy goals....................................................................................... 133 The domestic situation: political and economic considerations................. 134 Perceptions of security............................................................................. 137 Relations with the United States .............................................................. 138 Relations with other regional countries and European institutions............ 140 Bulgaria and the European security order ................................................ 142 Defense issues.......................................................................................... 144 The Context for engagement................................................................... 151 Endnotes.................................................................................................. 155 Georgia............................................................................................................ 157 Summary.................................................................................................. 157 U.S. policy goals....................................................................................... 159 The domestic situation: political and economic considerations................. 160 Perceptions of security............................................................................. 167 Relations with the United States............................................................... 168 Relations with other regional countries and European institutions............ 169 Georgia and the European security order................................................. 172 Defense issues.......................................................................................... 173 The context for engagement.................................................................... 179 Endnotes.................................................................................................. 182 in THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Introduction Background In February 1999 CINCUSNAVEUR asked CNA to analyze prospective trends and developments in the Black Sea region over the next five years in light of U.S. interests and objectives, assess the contribution that Navy engagement programs can make to achieving them, and make specific recommendations for future Navy planning and engagement activities. The final report of that project is CNA Research Memorandum (CRM) 461, The Black Sea Region: Issues for the Navy (CONFIDENTIAL), March 2000. This report, an important building block in the project, contains profiles of the six Black Sea littoral nations, with special attention to U.S. national objectives. In the case of the newly independent states and countries that were formerly members of the Warsaw Pact, we look in detail at the prospects for domestic political stability, economic development, and regional relations, and how Navy engagement programs can support U.S. goals. The Russian profile concentrates on that country's Black Sea perspective. We look at Turkey, a key U.S. ally, in terms of its special responsibilities in the Black Sea, as well as its regional interests. The study team used information available through December 1999 in preparing these profiles. Approach We began the process of generating country profiles by establishing detailed research questions in light of each country's history and regional relationships. We turned to public statements and U.S. agency program documents for authoritative current U.S. policy objectives. CNA analysts with extensive experience in the area and in one or more Black Sea countries reviewed the output of the Intelligence Community, the relevant academic literature, and journalistic sources on each country, and sought out experts among the scholarly community in the Washington area. We also consulted policy officials
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