Volume 32 Number 2 June 2012 Volume 35 Number 2 June 2015 E A S T E R N C A R I B B E A N C E N T R A L B A N K ADDRESS Headquarters: P O Box 89 Basseterre St Kitts and Nevis West Indies Telephone: (869) 465-2537 Facsimile: (869) 465-5615 Email: [email protected] Website: www.eccb-centralbank.org The ECCB welcomes your questions and comments on this publication. COUNTRY ECONOMISTS UNIT RESEARCH DEPARTMENT Director Economic and Financial Review Ms Karen Williams June 2015 Quarterly Economic and Financial Review Deputy Director Mr Rohan Stowe Volume 35, Number 2 Administrative Editor/ Deputy Director Ms Patricia Welsh The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank prepares a Contributors quarterly Economic and Financial Review for the Senior Economists Eastern Caribbean Currency Union and each individual member territory for the periods ending Ms Zanna Barnard March, June, September and December of each year. Mrs Beverley Labadie Economists II Mr Kevin Hope Ms Beverly Lugay Correspondence regarding the Economic Review should be address to: Ms Martina Regis The Director Ms Kieran St Omer Research Department Mr Kevin Woods Eastern Caribbean Central Bank P O Box 89 Economist I BASSETERRE Ms Rochelle Harris St Kitts Tel: (869) 465 2537 Administrative Officer Fax: (869) 465 5615 Email: [email protected] Miss Doldria Penny Website: http://www.eccb-centralbank.org/ The Quarterly Economic and Financial Review report is a publication of the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REVIEW: International Economic Developments……………………………………………….1 Domestic Economic Developments ............................................................................... 8 Country Performances: Anguilla ............................................................................................................ 23 Antigua and Barbuda ........................................................................................ 31 Dominica ........................................................................................................... 41 Grenada ............................................................................................................. 49 Montserrat ......................................................................................................... 59 St Kitts and Nevis ............................................................................................. 69 Saint Lucia ........................................................................................................ 81 St Vincent and the Grenadines ......................................................................... 92 NOTES FOR STATISTICAL TABLES AND MONETARY SURVEY …………….…...102 STATISTICAL TABLES INDEX ........................................................................................ 103 POLICY BRIEF……………………………………………………………………………144 June 2015 Economic and Financial Review INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS I N T E R N A T I O N A L E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T S Overview improvements in the prospects for advanced economies and partly moderated by a The global economic recovery continued in deceleration in the performance of the the second quarter of 2015, but at a slower emerging market economies. With rate than expected, with increasing risks to expectations of strengthening output growth in growth especially in emerging markets. The a number of advanced economies in the short mixed performance of advanced economies term, projections for 2016 remain optimistic at largely reflected the estimated expansion in 3.8 per cent. The risks to global growth economic output in the United States of remain on the downside which includes America (USA) in the first six months of 2015 geopolitical tensions and economic distress in tempered by weak recoveries in the UK and the Middle East, the rebalancing of China and the Euro Area economies, and shrinking the prolonged economic stagnation in Europe. growth in Japan and Canada. In China the slowdown in economic growth was partly Macro-Economic Developments in the associated with policy shifts from an export- Major Economies oriented economy to more domestic-oriented Real Sector and Labour Market policy measures. Generally, labour market Developments conditions improved coinciding with subdued inflationary pressures and positive economic The final estimates of real GDP growth in the growth. However, the major Central Banks USA for the second quarter showed that continued their accommodative monetary output grew by 3.9 per cent (annualised) policy stance with interest rates at near compared with a 4.2 per cent expansion in the historic lows, to support continued corresponding quarter of 2014. However, the improvements in the labour market and global performance represented an expansion of 3.3 economic recovery. per cent when compared to the first quarter 2015. The expansion in real GDP was largely Global economic growth for 2015 is estimated attributed to increased personal consumption at 3.3 per cent, attributed largely to some expenditure, private inventory investment, ______________________________________________________________________________ 1 Eastern Caribbean Central Bank June 2015 Economic and Financial Review INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS exports, non-residential fixed investment, communication, business services and finance. government spending (state and local) and The UK’s unemployment rate fell to 5.6 residential fixed investment. Consistent with per cent in June 2015 from 6.4 per cent in the general improvement in the real sector in June 2014. For the April to June 2015 period, the USA, the rate of unemployment fell to 5.3 31.0m persons were employed, which was per cent in June 2015 compared with 6.1 63,000 less than the first three months of the per cent in June 2014, the lowest in seven year and 354,000 above the corresponding years. The number of unemployed fell by period of 2014. The number of unemployed 1.4m persons on an annualised basis, with a persons (1.9m) was 25,000 above that of the labour force participation rate of 62.9 in June first quarter of 2015 and 221,000 less than a 2015. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings year ago. grew by 2.0 per cent (annualised) to $24.95 in June 2015. The Euro Area economy advanced by 0.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2015 up from 0.1 The economy of the United Kingdom (UK) per cent in the corresponding period of 2014, continued to recover, as real GDP grew by 0.7 but a slowing from a 0.5 per cent in the first per cent in the second quarter of 2015, a quarter. The strengthening of the recovery in marginally slower pace when compared with Spain and Germany were insufficient to offset the 0.8 per cent expansion in the contractions recorded in France, Italy and corresponding period of 2014. However, Netherlands. Spain's economy continued to second quarter real GDP growth was an recover with growth of 1.0 per cent and the improvement over the 0.3 per cent growth in economy of Germany, the largest in the the first quarter. Growth in the second quarter Eurozone, expanded by 0.4 per cent. was driven largely by the services sector, Economic activity in Europe’s second largest which grew by 0.7 per cent and contributed economy, France, virtually stalled in the 0.6 percentage points to the overall increase in second quarter compared with growth of 0.7 economic activity. The expansion in the per cent in the first quarter of 2015. The services sector was broad-based, with stagnation was attributed to a deceleration in increases in each of the four major sub- total domestic demand which include categories – distribution, hotels and consumption expenditure and total investment. restaurants, transport, storage and ______________________________________________________________________________ 2 Eastern Caribbean Central Bank June 2015 Economic and Financial Review INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Italy economic growth slowed to 0.3 per cent the economy contracted by 0.3 per cent in the in the second quarter while the economy of April to June period, after expanding by 1.1 the Netherlands decelerated to 0.1 per cent. per cent in the first quarter. Private The Euro Area seasonally-adjusted consumption, which accounts for close to 60.0 unemployment rate was 11.1 per cent in June per cent of the economy, fell by 0.7 per cent 2015 compared with an 11.5 per cent in the due to rising food prices and increases in the corresponding period of 2014. Among the cost of imports. Also contributing to the member states the lowest unemployment rate decline in economic activity were contractions in June 2015 was recorded in Germany (4.7 of 4.4 per cent in exports and 0.9 per cent in per cent) and the highest, in Greece (25.6 capital expenditure (private non-residential per cent) and Spain (22.5 per cent). investment). The Chinese economy expanded by 7.0 The Canadian economic recovery weakened per cent on an annualized basis in June 2015, in the second quarter of 2015, as real GDP compared with 7.5 per cent in the contracted at an annualized pace of 0.5 corresponding period in 2014. On a quarterly per cent in contrast to an expansion of 3.1 per basis, the economy grew by 1.7 per cent from cent in the second quarter of 2014. On a 1.4 per cent in the previous quarter. The quarterly basis, the economy contracted by 0.1 growth was attributed to performances in three per cent in the April to June period, following major sectors, manufacturing (7.7 per cent), a 0.2 percent contraction in the first quarter, as mining and quarrying (2.7 per cent) and,