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The Influence of a Country's Global Market Position on the Tourism Industry Macroeconomic Indicators

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The Influence of a Country's Global Market Position on the Tourism Industry Macroeconomic Indicators Ìåõàí³çì ðåãóëþâàííÿ åêîíîì³êè 1 УДК 338.486 JEL Classification: L83 THE INFLUENCE OF A COUNTRY'S GLOBAL MARKET POSITION ON THE TOURISM INDUSTRY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS V. Yermachenko The article provides the analysis of the countries' tourism development indicators in correspondence with the position of a national economy in the global market. The issues of international tourism impact on a national economy have been studied, in both the methodological aspects and practical implementation, the main challenges of the branch functioning today have been pointed out. The research goal is to find the most relevant methods and approaches to the descriptive analysis of macroeconomic data, concerning the scale of a national economy and the stra- tegic position of the tourism industry in a state. The object of the research is the operation of national economies in the global tourism market, the subject is the elaboration of estimation techniques of a national tourism market structure with the countries having operative programmes of the branch development taken as an example. The scientific novelty consists in the elaboration of the methodical approach to cluster formation preceding the use of econometric models. The main research method is grouping on the basis of a cluster approach. It has been proved that the common cluster analysis with econometric models is not often relevant to the specific purpose, so step-by-step estimation of the indicators chosen has been suggested considering every peculiarity of a national foreign trade policy. Preliminary grouping of the countries by the criteria of economic stability has been performed. Further investigations in this field will be conducted via analysis of the dominant strategies in tourism development programmes according to the current position of a country in the pre-defined group and singling out the main trends peculiar to the majority of the projects. Keywords: grouping of the countries, cluster analysis, tourism development macroeconomic data. ВПЛИВ ПОЗИЦІЇ КРАЇНИ НА СВІТОВОМУ РИНКУ НА ФОРМУВАННЯ МАКРОЕКОНОМІЧНИХ ПОКАЗНИКІВ РОЗВИТКУ ГАЛУЗІ ТУРИЗМУ Єрмаченко В. Є. У статті наведено аналіз показників розвитку туризму в деяких країнах відповідно до їх позиції на світо- вому ринку. Розглянуто питання впливу сфери міжнародного туризму на економіку країни як на рівні методо- логічних аспектів, так і на рівні практичної реалізації, вказано основні проблеми функціонування галузі на сьо- годні. Мета статті – обґрунтування оптимальних методів і підходів до описового аналізу макроекономічних показників виходячи з масштабів національної економіки та стратегічного становища галузі туризму в державі. Об'єктом дослідження є діяльність національних економік на світовому туристичному ринку, предметом – розробка методів оцінювання структури національного туристичного ринку на прикладі країн з діючими про- грамами розвитку галузі. Наукова новизна полягає в уточненні методичного підходу до кластеризації, яка випереджає використання економетричних моделей. Основним методом дослідження є групування на ос- нові кластерного підходу. Доведено, що стандартний кластерний аналіз на основі економетричних моделей часто не відповідає меті дослідження, тому пропонується покрокове оцінювання вибраних показників з ура- хуванням особливостей зовнішньоторговельної політики держави. Подальші дослідження мають бути спрямо- вані на аналіз провідних стратегій у рамках програм розвитку туризму відповідно до поточного перебування країни в певному кластері і виділення основних тенденцій, характерних для більшості проектів. Ключові слова: групування країн, кластерний аналіз, макроекономічні показники розвитку туризму. ВЛИЯНИЕ ПОЗИЦИИ СТРАНЫ НА МИРОВОМ РЫНКЕ НА ФОРМИРОВАНИЕ МАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ ПОКАЗАТЕЛЕЙ РАЗВИТИЯ ОТРАСЛИ ТУРИЗМА Ермаченко В. Е. В статье приведен анализ показателей развития туризма в некоторых странах в соответствии с их по- ложением на мировом рынке. Рассмотрены вопросы влияния сферы международного туризма на экономику © V. Yermachenko, "Економіка розвитку" (Economics of Development), № 1 (73), 2015 © Малярец Л. М., 2004 © Доронін А. В., Поспєлов О. М., 2004 Ìåõàí³çì ðåãóëþâàííÿ åêîíîì³êè 2 страны как на уровне методологических аспектов, так и на уровне практической реализации, указаны основные проблемы функционирования отрасли на сегодняшний день. Цель статьи – обоснование оптимальных методов и подходов к описательному анализу макроэкономических показателей исходя из масштабов национальной экономики и стратегического положения отрасли туризма в государстве. Объектом исследования выступает деятельность национальных экономик на мировом туристическом рынке, предметом – разработка методов оценки структуры национального туристического рынка на примере стран с действующими программами развития отрасли. Научная новизна состоит в уточнении методического подхода к кластеризации, предваряющей использование эконометрических моделей. Основным методом исследования является группировка на основе кластерного подхода. Доказано, что стандартный кластерный анализ на основе эконометрических моделей часто не соответствует цели исследования, поэтому предлагается пошаговая оценка выбранных показателей с учетом особенностей внешнеторговой политики государства. Выполнена предварительная группировка стран по критерию экономической стабильности. Дальнейшие исследования будут направлены на анализ доминирующих стратегий в рамках программ развития туризма в соответствии с текущим положением страны в определенном кластере и выделение основных тенденций, характерных для большинства проектов. Ключевые слова: группировка стран, кластерный анализ, макроэкономические показатели развития туризма. The goal and content of state and/or regional programmes by dividing the tourism industry into six ones including traffic, will substantially differ subject to the general size of a national hotel, catering, tour, amusement and shopping. The structure pro- economy and the share of T&T industry in its GDP. The importance ductivity coefficient was calculated as the elastic coefficient of the of the tourism sector may also depend on the other quantitative tourism industry structure change index to the tourism economy and qualitative parameters, which could be extremely essential for total growth rate, reflecting the drive function and influence of the one country and irrelevant to another. Thus, the article provides tourism industry structure change (i.e. each of the six branches) the analysis of interdependence between the position of a national on the development of the tourism industry [11]. economy in the global market and its main tourism indicators. Teker S. and Teker D. have investigated the concept of The issues of international tourism impact on a national public-private partnerships (PPP) in the field of tourism, proposing economy have been studied by many scientists in Ukraine and a PPP model for tourism project financing. The main idea is that abroad. Alexandrova A. and Liubitseva O. were among the pioneers "the governments may protect their budget from fund deficit by in the CIS scientific community, describing the methodology of the transferring the financing solutions and the risks to the private sector tourism branch analysis in their early publications. Since that, each while they assure the quality and continuity of services provided year has been remarked by ongoing studies of tourism interna- to public". Several PPP models are defined – build-transfer (BT), ional flows, supplementing the theory and practice of the industry build-lease-transfer (BLT), build-transfer-operate (BTO), build-operate- researches with new methods and concepts [1 – 3]. transfer (BOT), build-own-operate-transfer (BOOT), build-own-operate Pădure G. and Turtureanu I. A. state that "tourism ... pro- (BOO) models, – ranked by the level of responsibility and ownership vides more fixed earnings than primary products. The income from distribution between the public and private sector [12]. Dzhukha V. tourism has increased at a higher rate than primary products ... in and Pogosyan R. have analysed the legal aspects of public-pri- a number of countries especially in countries having a low in- vate cooperation with the sports and recreation sphere taken as dustrial base". The authors present interesting statistic data high- an example [13]. Zyma O. and Lisitsyna I. have summarised the lighting that some countries have more visitor arrivals than the po- experience of PPP projects implementation by their aim and duration pulation number. Tourism has become an essential sector of international in different countries of the world, stating that it is more considerable trade in many countries, generating GDP and compensating the to realise mid- and short-term PPP projects in Ukraine due to the balance of payment accounts. The multiplier effect of tourism is cyclic character of its economy [14]. deduced in direct, secondary and tertiary sectors [4]. Bulin D. per- Special studies have been conducted of the tourism impact formed the grouping of EU countries using the cluster analysis assessment in developing countries, for example, [15] raises the method by the macroeconomic indicators of the tourism industry, problem of "import leakage" – the excess of the value of imported including the balance of payments, multiplier coefficients and the merchandise and services for keeping high standards of foreign level of T&T competitiveness. Three clusters were defined with dif- tourists' accommodation above the real income of inbound tourism, ferent internal policies in the tourism
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