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2020 Annual Economic and Financial Review E A S T E R N C A R I B B E A N C E N T R A L B A N K ADDRESS Headquarters: P O Box 89 Basseterre Saint Christopher (St Kitts) and Nevis West Indies Telephone: (869) 465-2537 Facsimile: (869) 465-5615 Email: [email protected] Website: www.eccb-centralbank.org The ECCB welcomes your questions and comments on this publication. COUNTRY ECONOMISTS UNIT 2020 Annual Economic and Financial Review RESEARCH DEPARTMENT Acting Director The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank prepares an Economic and Financial Ms Patricia Welsh Review for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union and each individual member territory for the periods ending June and December of each year. Administrative Editor Ms Patricia Welsh Mrs Beverley Labadie Contributors Senior Economists Ms Beverly Lugay (Acting) Mr Leon Bullen (Acting) Ms Martina Regis (Acting) Correspondence regarding the Annual Economic and Financial Review should be addressed to: Economists II Mr Kevin Woods The Director Economists I Research Department Ms Rochelle Harris Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Mr Peter Abraham Jr P O Box 89 BASSETERRE Statistics Department St Kitts Administrative Officer Ms Sheena Gonsalves Tel: (869) 465 2537 Fax: (869) 465 5615 Email: rd-sec@eccb- centralbank.org Cover Design Bevan & Beverley Labadie Website: http://www.eccb-centralbank.org/ Photo Credit Anguilla – Beverly Lugay Antigua and Barbuda – Peter Abraham The Annual Economic and Financial Review is a publication of the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Commonwealth of Commonwealth of Dominica – Beverly Lugay Grenada – David Bullen Montserrat – Montserrat Tourist Information Centre Saint Christopher (St Kitts) and Nevis – Beverley Labadie Saint Lucia – Saint Lucia Tourism Authority Saint Vincent and the Grenadines – Rico Audain C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REVIEW: DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ..................................................................... 1 COUNTRY PERFORMANCES: ANGUILLA ........................................................................................................................ 10 ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA .............................................................................................. 15 COMMONWEALTH OF DOMINICA ............................................................................... 20 GRENADA ......................................................................................................................... 25 MONTSERRAT ................................................................................................................. 30 ST CHRISTOPHER (ST KITTS) AND NEVIS .................................................................. 35 SAINT LUCIA .................................................................................................................... 40 SAINT VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES ................................................................... 46 NOTES FOR STATISTICAL TABLES AND MONETARY SURVEY ................................. 51 STATISTICAL TABLES INDEX ........................................................................................ 52 L I S T O F A C R O N Y M S A N D A B B R E V I A T I O N S CBI/CIP - Citizenship by Investment / Citizenship by Investment Programme ECCB - Eastern Caribbean Central Bank ECCU - Eastern Caribbean Currency Union GDP - Gross Domestic Product UK - United Kingdom USA - United States of America VAT - Value Added Tax 2020 Annual Economic and Financial Review DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Overview The deployment of COVID-19 vaccines and the continued relaxation of Provisional estimates indicate that restrictions both regionally and globally, the regional economy contracted are expected to support a gradual by 14.0 per cent in 2020, due to the economic recovery in 2021. This outlook range of restrictive measures is however subject to significant imposed during the second quarter uncertainty, related to perceptions on the of 2020 to contain the COVID-19 safety and efficacy of vaccines and the pandemic. The downturn reflected emergence of new variants of the SARS- contractions in economic activity in all Cov2 virus, which may delay global eight member countries and marked the tourism recovery. In addition, ongoing most severe contraction in the recent explosive eruptions of the La Soufriere history of the region. volcano in Saint Vincent and the ECCU Selected Economic Indicators Annual Percentage Change Grenadines may further challenge the 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 regional economic recovery. 2.0 1.0 0.0 (1.0) (2.0) (3.0) (4.0) (5.0) Real Sector Developments (6.0) (7.0) (8.0) (9.0) (10.0) Economic activity in the ECCU is (11.0) (12.0) (13.0) (14.0) (15.0) estimated to have shrunk to a (16.0) (17.0) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 historical low of 14.0 per cent, Real GDP Nominal GDP Consumer Price Index following an expansion of 1 2020 Annual Economic and Financial Review DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 2.7 per cent in the previous year. Within the stay-over segment, the While declines were evident across all number of visitor arrivals is estimated to member countries, the severity of the have plummeted by 68.4 per cent, a decline differed across countries. The reversal of the 11.5 per cent expansion differences reflected the economic recorded in 2019, due to declines in the contribution of tourism, the level of number of arrivals from all of the major government support provided and the source markets. While lockdown-related duration of country-specific lockdowns. restrictions eased in several member Contractions ranged from 2.7 per cent in countries by the third quarter, a Saint Vincent and the Grenadines to resurgence in COVID-19 cases in Europe 27.4 per cent in Anguilla. and the USA in the second half of 2020 led to the re-imposition of restrictions, The decline in value added was also and exacerbated the fall in tourist broad-based across sectors. The hotels arrivals. Overall, the total number of and restaurants sector (a proxy for the arrivals to the ECCU is estimated to have tourism industry) recorded the largest plunged by 65.4 per cent, contrasting a fall of 63.2 per cent, in contrast to growth 3.5 per cent expansion in the previous of 10.0 per cent in 2019, as governments year. imposed unprecedented travel restrictions to contain the pandemic. The decline in value-added in the hotels This was reflected in widespread and restaurants sector had major spill- contractions across all member countries over effects on activity in other economic as well as in all visitor segments. sectors, including transport, storage and communications (25.7 per cent), ECCU Visitor Arrivals wholesale and retail (12.4 per cent), In thousands 4,000.0 construction (17.1 per cent) and real 3,500.0 3,000.0 estate, renting and business activities 2,500.0 2,000.0 (3.0 per cent). 1,500.0 1,000.0 500.0 0.0 Despite measures aimed at enhancing 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 food security and production in several Stay-overs Cruise Ship Passengers (Includes Excursionist) Yacht arrivals member countries, the agriculture, 2 2020 Annual Economic and Financial Review DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS livestock and forestry sector shrank by dropped by 6.3 per cent and 6.2 per cent 7.7 per cent, adversely affected by lower respectively. The decline in food prices demand by hotels and restaurants and was more subdued at 1.6 per cent. The extended restrictions. These contractions fall in energy and food prices was partly were partially offset by growth in public offset by an uptick in the price levels of administration, defence & compulsory personal services (4.4 per cent) and social security (1.6 per cent) and financial clothing and footwear (3.5 per cent). intermediation (1.0 per cent), driven in Consequently, the inflation rate in the part by an increase in pandemic-related ECCU fell by 1.7 per cent in 2020, spending and supportive fiscal policies. following the previous year’s decline of 0.1 per cent. Inflation Consumer prices in the ECCU Fiscal and Debt Developments exhibited a deflationary trend The economic slowdown from the during the period, associated with COVID-19 pandemic and increased the slump in global crude oil prices pandemic-related expenditure and lower global demand caused by resulted in a deterioration in pandemic-related lockdowns. Six governments’ fiscal positions. of the eight member countries posted Preliminary data on the aggregated declines in overall prices in 2020, with fiscal operations of central the sharpest fall of 2.9 per cent recorded governments of the ECCU, indicate in Montserrat. The two countries which that an overall deficit of $1.2b registered increases were (7.0 per cent of GDP) was Antigua and Barbuda (2.8 per cent) and generated, compared with one of Commonwealth of Dominica (1.7 per $426.4m (2.1 per cent of GDP) in cent). The lower price level was the previous year. Dominica posted particularly reflected in the energy- the largest overall deficit position1 of components of the consumer basket, 16.6 per cent of GDP, while Anguilla’s notably the fuel and light and transport fiscal balances improved to 1.4 per cent of and communication sub-indices, which GDP. Similarly, the aggregated primary 1 In order to make meaningful comparisons, and to account balances are weighted by GDP where possible, rather than for differences among ECCU member countries, fiscal comparing nominal values. 3 2020 Annual Economic and Financial Review DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS balance generated a deficit of $776.8m Citizenship by Investment Programmes (4.4 per cent of GDP) in contrast to a of 30.9 per
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