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Volume 32 Number 2 June 2012 Volume 34 Number 2 June 2014 E a S T E R N C a R I B B E a N C E N T R a L B a N K

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Volume 32 Number 2 June 2012 Volume 34 Number 2 June 2014 E a S T E R N C a R I B B E a N C E N T R a L B a N K Volume 32 Number 2 June 2012 Volume 34 Number 2 June 2014 E A S T E R N C A R I B B E A N C E N T R A L B A N K ADDRESS Headquarters: P O Box 89 Basseterre St Kitts and Nevis West Indies Cable: CENTRAL BANK, ST KITTS Telephone: (869) 465-2537 Facsimile: (869) 465-5615 Email: [email protected] Website: www.eccb-centralbank.org The ECCB welcomes your questions and comments on this publication. C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REVIEW: International Economic Developments……………………………………………….1 Domestic Economic Developments ............................................................................. 11 Country Performances: Anguilla ............................................................................................................ 24 Antigua and Barbuda ........................................................................................ 33 Dominica ........................................................................................................... 41 Grenada ............................................................................................................. 49 Montserrat ......................................................................................................... 57 St Kitts and Nevis ............................................................................................. 64 Saint Lucia ........................................................................................................ 73 St Vincent and the Grenadines ......................................................................... 83 STATISTICAL TABLES INDEX ………………………………………………………….91 STATISTICAL TABLES ........................................................................................................ 92 TABLES……………………………………………………………………………………..94 June 2014 Economic and Financial Review INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS I N T E R N A T I O N A L E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T S Overview significant risks persist. With expectations of strengthening output growth in a number of The global economic recovery continued in advanced economies in the short term, the second quarter of 2014, albeit at an uneven projections for 2015 remain optimistic at 4.0 pace, with downside risks remaining a per cent. concern. In the United States of America, the world’s largest economy, real GDP expanded Developments in the Major Economies (year-on-year) by 4.0 per cent in the April to June quarter, in contrast to a contraction 2.1 Advanced estimates of real GDP in the USA per cent in the first three months of the year. for the second quarter show that output grew Economic growth in Canada rebounded in the by 4.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2014. second quarter - the largest quarterly gain in Year-on-year, the economy expanded by 4.0 three years, registering an increase of 0.8 per per cent, well above market expectations of cent, following a marginal expansion of 0.2 3.0 per cent, following an abysmal first per cent in the first quarter. China's economic quarter performance, when the economy performance improved in the second quarter, shrank by a revised 2.1 per cent. The advancing by 2.0 per cent, compared with 1.5 expansion in real GDP was largely attributed per cent in the previous quarter. The economy to increased personal expenditure, private of the United Kingdom continued to recover, inventory investment, exports, non-residential supported by a strengthening service sector. fixed investment, government spending (state Growth in the Euro-zone stalled in the second and local) and residential fixed investment. quarter, as contractions in Germany and Italy Growth in consumer spending, which suppressed output gains in Spain and accounts for more than two-thirds of US Netherlands. Japan’s GDP contracted, economic activity, accelerated at a pace of 2.5 following a blazing performance in the first per cent, driven by increased spending on quarter of the year, when it expanded at the durable manufactured goods and on services. fastest pace in more than two years. Going Consumer spending increased at a 1.2 per cent forward, projections for global growth in 2014 pace in the first quarter of the year, due were marked down to 3.4 per cent as primarily to weak healthcare spending. The 1 Eastern Caribbean Central Bank June 2014 Economic and Financial Review INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS increase in spending was consistent with per cent in the second quarter of 2014, developments in the labour market. The following growth of the same magnitude in unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage the first quarter. Based on preliminary points in June to 6.1 per cent, while the estimates, the economy surpassed its peak - number of unemployed persons decreased by first quarter of 2008, by 0.2 per cent. Growth 325,000 to 9.5m. in the second quarter was driven largely by the services sector, which grew by 1.0 per cent Despite the pick-up in consumer spending, US and contributed 0.8 percentage points to the consumers saved more in the second quarter, overall increase in economic activity. The evidenced by a saving rate of 5.3 per cent, expansion in the services sector was broad- compared with one of 4.9 per cent in the first based, with increases in each of the four major quarter. This development indicates a rise in sub-categories – distribution, hotels and incomes, which augurs well for future restaurants, transport and storage and spending. Corporate profits grew by $154.9b communication. This performance was in the second quarter of the year, compared supported by an increase of 0.4 per cent in with growth of $201.7b in the previous production, which was driven by growth of quarter. Consequently, corporate income 4.7 per cent in energy supply. Other positive taxes grew by $39.7b, following growth of contributions came from the manufacturing $66.9b in the first three months. Inventories and mining and quarrying sectors, which grew contributed 1.7 percentage points to GDP by 0.2 per cent and 0.9 per cent respectively. growth in the second quarter after shaving off These increases were partially offset by 1.2 percentage points in the first quarter. By declines of 2.5 per cent in water and waste contrast, trade was a drag on the economy for management, 0.5 per cent in construction a second consecutive quarter, since a boost in output and 0.2 per cent in agriculture. domestic demand was satisfied by increased imports. Domestic demand grew by 2.8 per The trade balance deficit widened to £2.5b in cent, following an increase of 0.7 per cent in June from £2.4b in the previous month as a the first quarter. decline in exports outpaced falling imports. Exports of goods fell by 1.6 per cent to The economy of the United Kingdom (UK) $23.5b, reflecting declines of £0.2b in the continued to recover, as real GDP grew by 0.8 export of fuels, £0.2b in the exports of 2 Eastern Caribbean Central Bank June 2014 Economic and Financial Review INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS manufactured goods and £0.2b in the exports the German and Italian economies contracted of finished manufactures. Imports of goods by 0.2 per cent in the second quarter. The fell by 0.4 per cent to $32.9m, reflecting a Euro Area’s seasonally-adjusted decline of £0.4b in imports of fuels, unemployment rate was 11.5 per cent in June particularly oil. 2014, the lowest rate since September 2012. The UK’s unemployment rate for April to In the second quarter of 2014, China's June 2014 was 6.4 per cent, the lowest since economy advanced by 2.0 per cent over the the latter half of 2008. For the April to June first quarter, after having expanded by a period, 30.6m people were employed, which revised 1.5 per cent in the first quarter. Year- was 167,000 more than the first three months on-year, the economy grew by 7.5 per cent in of the year and 820,000 above the the second quarter, up from growth of 7.4 per corresponding period of 2013. The number of cent in the preceding quarter. The unemployed persons (2.1m) was 132,000 improvement is attributed to a series of below that of the January to March period and deliberate stimulus measures announced by 437,000 less than a year ago. the government. These measures included further expansion of the rail network and In the Euro-zone, GDP stagnated in the increased expenditure on public housing second quarter, compared with the first construction projects. Although growth in quarter. Relatively strong performances in exports rebounded in the second quarter and Spain and Netherlands were insufficient to factory output increased above expectations in offset contractions recorded in Germany and June, the economy may require additional Italy. Spain's economy continued to recover stimulus to sustain growth in the latter half of with growth of 0.6 per cent and the economy the year. Fixed asset investments grew at an of Netherlands expanded by 0.5 per cent. For annualized pace of 17.3 per cent in the first the second consecutive quarter, growth stalled half of the year. Retail sales in June rose by in France, Europe’s second largest economy. 12.4 per cent year-on-year, marginally below France’s foreign trade balance and changes in growth of 12.5 per cent in May. The inventories, adversely impacted gains realized unemployment rate remained unchanged at from an increase in domestic demand. Both 4.1 per cent in the second quarter. 3 Eastern Caribbean Central Bank June 2014 Economic and Financial Review INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Chinese trade surplus narrowed to US$31.6b as a decline in public investment was offset by in June, from US$35.9b in May, as an increase an increase in government consumption. in imports outpaced growth in exports. Imports grew at an annualized rate of 5.5 per Canada’s economic growth rebounded in the cent to US$155.2b, rebounding from a decline second quarter, with the expansion including of 1.6 per cent in May. Growth in imports improved exports and business expenditure, was largely influenced by increases in which signal a complete recovery. GDP purchases from the ASEAN countries (12.5 increased at an annualized pace of 3.1 per cent per cent), Japan (6.6 per cent), Taiwan (14.9 in the second quarter and 0.8 per cent on a per cent) and Australia (4.8 per cent).
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