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2019 Annual Economic and Financial Review RESEARCH DEPARTMENT E A S T E R N C A R I B B E A N C E N T R A L B A N K ADDRESS Headquarters: P O Box 89 Basseterre Saint Christopher (St Kitts) and Nevis West Indies Telephone: (869) 465-2537 Facsimile: (869) 465-5615 Email: [email protected] Website: www.eccb-centralbank.org The ECCB welcomes your questions and comments on this publication. COUNTRY ECONOMISTS UNIT 2019 Annual Economic and Financial Review RESEARCH DEPARTMENT Acting Director Ms Patricia Welsh The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank prepares an Economic and Financial Review for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union and each individual member Administrative Editor territory for the periods ending June and December of each year. Ms Patricia Welsh Mr Rohan Stowe Contributors Senior Economists Mrs Beverley Labadie Ms Beverly Lugay (Acting) Correspondence regarding the Annual Economic and Financial Review should Economists II be addressed to: Mr Leon Bullen Ms Martina Regis Mr Kevin Woods The Director Economists I Research Department Ms Rochelle Harris Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Mr Peter Abraham Jr P O Box 89 Statistics Department BASSETERRE St Kitts Senior Administrative Officer Ms Sheena Gonsalves Tel: (869) 465 2537 Fax: (869) 465 5615 Cover Design Email: [email protected] Rochelle Harris Website: http://www.eccb-centralbank.org/ Photo Credit Anguilla – Beverly Lugay Antigua and Barbuda – Beverly Lugay The Annual Economic and Financial Review is a publication of the Eastern Commonwealth of Commonwealth of Caribbean Central Bank Dominica – Peter Abraham Jr Grenada – David Bullen Montserrat – Martin A Parlett Saint Christopher (St Kitts) and Nevis – Rochelle Harris Saint Lucia – Javier Spencer Saint Vincent and the Grenadines – Andre Alexander C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REVIEW: DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ........................................................... 1 COUNTRY PERFORMANCES: ANGUILLA .................................................................................................. 11 ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA ............................................................................... 17 COMMONWEALTH OF DOMINICA ................................................................... 23 GRENADA ................................................................................................... 29 MONTSERRAT .............................................................................................. 34 SAINT CHRISTOPHER (ST KITTS) AND NEVIS ..................................................... 39 SAINT LUCIA ............................................................................................... 45 SAINT VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES ........................................................... 50 NOTES FOR STATISTICAL TABLES AND MONETARY SURVEY ................................. 56 STATISTICAL TABLES INDEX........................................................................... 57 L I S T O F A C R O N Y M S A N D A B B R E V I A T I O N S ABST - Antigua and Barbuda Sales Tax CBI/CIP - Citizenship by Investment / Citizenship by Investment Programme CPI - Consumer Price Index ECCB - Eastern Caribbean Central Bank ECCU - Eastern Caribbean Currency Union EU - European Union FDI - Foreign Direct Investment GDP - Gross Domestic Product IMF - International Monetary Fund M1 - Narrow Money M2 - Total Monetary Liabilities (Currency with the Public plus Deposits) NFA - Net Foreign Assets NFPE - Non-Financial Public Enterprises NIA - Nevis Island Administration NIS - National Insurance Services NPL - Non-performing Loans OPEC - Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries PSIP - Public Sector Investment Programme RGSM - Regional Government Securities Market T-bill - Treasury Bills UK - United Kingdom US/USA - United States of America VAT - Value Added Tax WEO - World Economic Outlook 2019 Annual Economic and Financial Review DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Overview Economic activity in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) continued its upward trajectory, recording its ninth consecutive year of expansion. Preliminary data indicate that the regional economy grew by 3.3 per cent in 2019, following growth of 3.9 per cent recorded in the previous year. This expansion largely reflected improved The overall growth forecasts for the performances in a number of key sectors currency union remains highly contingent including hotels and restaurants and on the rapidly volatile global transport, storage and communications. On developments associated with the COVID- a disaggregated basis, provisional numbers 19 pandemic. As global supply chains revealed that economic activity expanded in become disrupted and the ECCU countries all eight member countries. shut their borders, tourism activity, which is a very vital source of foreign exchange 1 2019 Annual Economic and Financial Review DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS earnings and ultimately economic growth is likely to experience severe setbacks. However, a gradual pick-up in activity in the latter quarter of the year is likely, if the spread of the coronavirus is sufficiently contained and a vaccine becomes available for mass consumption. Additionally, declining oil prices may augur well for the global economy. Stay-over visitor arrivals grew by 12.5 per cent to 1.3m, compared with an Real Sector Developments expansion of 3.3 per cent recorded in 2018. Economic activity in the currency union in The performance in this sub-category 2019 was supported by favourable reflected growth in the number of visitors conditions in the global economy, where from all the major source markets, mainly growth was approximately 2.9 per cent. the USA and the Caribbean, which increased Value added in the hotels and restaurants by 16.0 per cent and 12.6 per cent, sector, a proxy for activity in the tourism respectively. All eight countries industry, expanded by 14.5 per cent experienced growth in stay-over arrivals compared with an increase of 4.6 per cent in ranging from 1.2 per cent in Grenada to the previous year. The improved 75.0 per cent in Anguilla. Of the other performance in the hotels and restaurants categories of visitors, the number of sector was driven largely by growth of excursionists almost doubled and yacht 3.9 per cent in the total number of visitors passenger arrivals were up by 6.7 per cent. to the currency union. Five countries On the contrary, the number of cruise recorded increases in visitor arrivals, which passengers, which represented 68.3 per cent more than offset the declines in the other of total visitors, fell marginally three countries. (0.2 per cent) to 3.4m compared with growth of 7.8 per cent recorded in 2018. This fall-off stemmed from declining arrivals in three member countries, 2 2019 Annual Economic and Financial Review DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS notwithstanding a 1.2 per cent increase in grew. The livestock sub-sector also the number of cruise ship calls to the region. recorded a decline in output, estimated at 2.6 per cent, compared with a contraction of Value added in the construction sector, a 3.1 per cent in the previous year. Value main contributor to economic activity in the added in the manufacturing sector at the ECCU (11.2 per cent of GDP), decelerated Currency Union level declined by an in 2019, registering growth of 1.3 per cent, estimated 1.1 per cent, in contrast to growth compared with 12.2 per cent in the prior of 5.8 per cent one year prior. Prices in year. Spill-over effects from elevated most member countries remained relatively activity in tourism and construction, to a stable. lesser extent, are estimated to have contributed favourably to value added in sectors such as transport, storage and Fiscal and Debt Developments communications (4.9 per cent), electricity Preliminary data on the aggregated fiscal and water (7.6 per cent) and wholesale and operations of the central governments 1 retail trade (1.9 per cent). indicated that an overall deficit of $481.6m (2.3 per cent of GDP) was Output in the agriculture, livestock and generated, compared with one of $171.1m forestry sector is estimated to have expanded (0.9 per cent of GDP) recorded in the by 7.3 per cent in contrast to a contraction prior year. This outturn was largely of 6.7 per cent in the previous year. The attributed to developments on the current turnaround in that sector reflected a account, as an increase in current 9.2 per cent increase in crop production, expenditure more than offset growth in particularly nutmeg, which bounced back current revenue. The overall fiscal from a decline in production in Grenada in deterioration was also reflected in the 2018. Banana output, by contrast, fell by primary balance, as it yielded a surplus of 2.0 per cent compared with an 11.6 per cent $5.2m (0.02 per cent of GDP) compared decrease in 2018. Concomitantly, the with one of $312.0m (1.6 per cent of GDP) tonnage of banana produced and exported in the previous year. The resultant primary fell, while revenues from banana exports balance reflected a general weakening in the 1 Balances are generally after grants 3 2019 Annual Economic and Financial Review DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS fiscal positions of all member countries, Investment Programmes in Saint Lucia and except Anguilla. Antigua and Barbuda, Commonwealth of Dominica. Commonwealth of Dominica, Montserrat, Receipts from taxes on domestic goods and Saint Lucia and St Vincent and the services rose by 2.8 per cent ($49.7m), led Grenadines all recorded larger overall by higher collections from the value added deficits, while Grenada and tax
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