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Cyprus Real Estate Market Report – the Insights

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Cyprus Real Estate Market Report – the Insights Cyprus Real Estate Market Report – The Insights 11 th edition Annual report outlining the key trends and major drivers of the Real Estate Market for 2019 and the first part of 2020 July 2020 Dear Reader, We are pleased to present KPMG Cyprus Real Estate Market Report – The Insights 11th edition. This year’s report comes in an unprecedented period for Cyprus and the whole world, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. In recent years, the Cypriot economy and the Real Estate sector in particular, have experienced a solid and continuous growth. Given recent developments, the outlook is hard to predict and currently there is little visibility of how the market will respond. Our report provides valuable information about the Cypriot economy and the local real estate market for 2019, but also looks into the evolving conditions in 2020. The report provides a snapshot of key economic conditions and invaluable insights into the real estate sector, including demand and supply, price evolution, notable sectoral developments, alongside certain observations portraying 2020 conditions and the effects of COVID-19. We hope that you will find our report enlightening and useful in supporting your future business decisions related to the real estate sector. Kindly feel free to contact us for further inquiries. KPMG’s “one-stop- shop” real estate service offering covers advisory, audit and tax related matters, customised to provide real added value to your specific needs and environment. Christos V. Vasiliou Managing Director KPMG in Cyprus 2 Contents 1 Cyprus at a glance 2 Economic overview 3 Real estate sector 4 Notable Real estate sector matters KPMG Cyprus Real estate market 5 sentiment survey 6 Topics of interest 3 Table of contents 1 Cyprus at a glance 5 4 Notable Real estate sector matters 25 Hotels 2019: key facts 26 2 Economic overview 7 High value residential properties 27 transactions > €1 mln Key economic indicators 8 Number of high value residential Credit ratings and government bond 28 9 properties analysis > €1 mln yields Peer-to-peer accommodation 29 Interest rates vs Eurozone 10 Student accommodation 31 Deposits and loans breakdown 11 Real estate lending 32 Key pillars of the economy 12 Real estate foreclosures 33 Tourism 13 Real estate in the Real Economy KPMG Cyprus Real estate market 14 5 34 2019 sentiment survey Transaction volume and price 3 Real estate sector 15 35 evolution Key variables affecting the real estate 36 Building permits volume and value 16 market Building permits issued by type of 17 Key findings 37 development Construction price index and cost per 18 6 Topics of interest 38 building permit Building permits in 2020 19 Immovable property fees and taxes 39 Sales activity in 2019 and 2020 H1 20 Cyprus investment programme 40 Sales to nationals and non-nationals 21 Real estate related services 41 Price evolution 22 7 Main contacts 43 Property yields 23 Rental prices evolution 24 4 Notable Real estate sector matters Cyprus at a glance 5 Cyprus at a glance Currency: Euro (€) since 2008 Kyrenia Political Memberships: System: Area Under Turkish Occupation (1) Presidential EU member Democratic since 2004 Republic Capital: Famagusta Nicosia Larnaca Accessibility & Infrastructure: 2 International Paphos Airports (Larnaca & Paphos) Limassol 2 deep sea ports (Limassol & Larnaca) 1 Not included in this report. Information in this report refers to the areas controlled by the Republic of Cyprus. 2 Source: CyStat (end-2017) Key Benefits 6 Notable Real estate sector matters Economic overview 7 Economic overview Key economic indicators Gross domestic product (y-o-y % change) Most important GDP growth drivers in 2019 Information and communication +0,83% 10.0 Construction +0,81% 3.2% 5. 0 Tourism, Wholesale and retail trade +0,65% Real estate activities +0,42% 0. 0 % 1.3% • Positive y-o-y growth in 2019 at (5.0) -5.0% 3,2% -7.0% • Cyprus’ annual GDP growth has -8.0% (10.0) been approximately double the Euro Area average for the last 3 years -13.0% (15.0) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Cyprus Cyprus - MoF mild scenario COVID-19 EFFECT: Cyprus - MoF baseline scenario Cyprus - MoF severe scenario • Cyprus Ministry of Finance is Eurozone Eurozone - Fitch's prediction expecting a drop in GDP in the range of –5% to -13% Source: Eurostat, Ministry of Finance (MoF), Fitch Ratings • Fitch is expecting a -8% in the Eurozone’s overall GDP Inflation (y-o-y % change) 2. 0 • Inflation in Cyprus for 2019 stood 1. 5 at 0,5%, significantly lower than the 1.2% 1.1% 1. 0 1,2% of the Eurozone 0.3% 0.8% 0. 5 • Inflation is expected to drop to 0. 0 0.5% % 0,3% for Eurozone and -0,5% for -0.5 Cyprus in 2020 and rebound to -1.0 -0.5% 1,1% and 0,8% respectively in -1.5 2021 -2.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Eurozone Cyprus Eurozone ECB projections Cyprus ECB projections Source: Eurostat, ECB Unemployment rate 20.0 • The latest CyStat figures show a drop of unemployment to 7,1% in 15.0 2019, dropping below the Eurozone 9.0% average 7.6% % 10.0 5. 0 8.8% 7.1% COVID-19 EFFECT: • Cyprus Ministry of Finance is 0. 0 expecting unemployment to rise to 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 9% in 2020 Cyprus Cyprus - MoF predictions • S&P is expecting a milder rise in the Eurozone Eurozone - S&P predictions Eurozone unemployment to 8,8% Source: CyStat, MoF, Eurostat, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 8 Economic overview Credit ratings and government bond yields Cyprus Credit Rating Agency Moody's S&P Fitch DBRS Previous rating Ba2 BBB- BBB- BBB (low) Current rating Ba2 BBB- BBB- BBB (low) Non-Investment Investment Investment Adequate credit Explanation grade grade grade quality Current rating as of 20-Sep-19 06-Mar-20 03-Apr-20 15-May-20 Upgrade/ - - - - Outlook positive stable stable stable Source: Moody’s, S&P, Fitch, DBRS Credit ratings Government bond yields • Fitch and DBRS latest credit ratings have • The average long-term return on Cyprus accounted for the effects of the COVID-19 government bonds rose significantly pandemic, reduced the outlook to “stable” between February and April 2020, from from “positive”, but did not downgrade the 0,56% to 1,87%, followed by a decrease country’s investment grade in May 2020 to 1,69% • Although Moody’s have not changed there • The average long-term return on Cyprus Credit Rating, their latest announcement on government bonds remains significantly 01 July 2020 regarding Cyprus’ credit profile higher that the EU27 and Eurozone (Ba2, positive) stated that “We expect that average Cyprus's debt reduction will resume at a sustained pace after the 2020 coronavirus crisis” Long-term bond yields 5. 0 4. 0 3. 0 2. 0 1.9% 1.7% Interest rate (%) 1. 0 0.5% 0.3% 0. 0 -0.5% -1.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2019 2020 EU27 Eurozone Germany Greece Cyprus Source: Eurostat 9 Economic overview Bank interest rates vs Eurozone Bank interest rates (%): New loans 7 6 5 4 3.1% 3 % p.a. 2.1% 2 1.9% 1 1.5% 0 Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Cyprus housing loans Eurozone housing loans Cyprus corporate loans (up to €1 mln) Eurozone corporate loans (up to €1 mln) New deposits 3 2 1 0.2% 0.2% % p.a. 0 0.1% -0.0% -1 Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Cyprus household deposits Eurozone household deposits Cyprus corporations deposits Eurozone corporations deposits Loans - Deposits interest rate spread Households Corporate Dec Dec May Dec Dec May 2013 2019 2020 2013 2019 2020 Cyprus 2,44 1,96 1,96 3,76 2,98 3,06 Eurozone 1,20 1,25 1,27 2,99 1,89 1,55 Source: ECB, KPMG Analysis • Interest rates have been declining since 2013 • Household and corporate loan interest rates have recorded record lows in 2019 • Loans to Cypriot households and corporates are still more “expensive”, compared to their Eurozone counterparts • The interest rate spread between loans and deposits has been reduced in Cyprus for both households and corporates. However, Cypriot Banks are still enjoying a bigger spread than the Eurozone average 10 Economic overview Deposits and loans breakdown Loans - Deposits trends in Monetary Financial Institutions in Cyprus 80 160% 135% 136% 70 133% 140% 60 113% 120% 103% 104% 99% 82% 69% 50 100% 40 80% % € billions 30 60% 20 40% 10 20% 69 69 70 72 47 64 46 62 46 63 49 55 49 51 48 39 49 34 0 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total Deposits Total Loans Loans to Deposits Ratio (right-hand axis) Source: Central Bank of Cyprus (CBC) Deposits in Monetary Financial Institutions in Cyprus 60 • The aggregate level of total bank deposits appears to be 50 relatively stable in 2013 40 • Local deposits have been 30 gradually increasing, while foreign deposits are decreasing € billions 20 over the last four years 10 • Loans have more than halved since 2011. There was a 0 decrease of circa 14% between 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2018 and 2019 Domestic residents EU residents Non EU residents • The decline in loans is multi- faceted; it is attributed to the Non-performing loans in Monetary Financial Institutions in banks’ efforts to de-leverage Cyprus their balance sheets via debt for asset swaps, write offs and cash 30 60% 48% 46% collections, but more 25 47% 50% importantly, particularly in 2018 44% and 2019, to the shifting of NPL 20 40% portfolios outside the banking 30% system 28% % 15 30% • The loans to deposits ratio has € billions 10 20% decreased significantly during the last 5 years, indicating the 5 10% banking system’s surplus 27 9 27 10 24 10 21
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