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DUP Rosmuller Omsl. 15/5/01 1:05 pm Pagina 1 T2001/6 Uitnodiging Graag wil ik u uitnodigen voor de openbare verdediging van mijn proefschrift Nils Rosmuller thesis series thesis series Safety Analysis of Transport Corridors De promotieplechtigheid vindt plaats op dinsdag 12 juni 2001 om 13.30 (precies) in de Senaatszaal van de Aula van de Technische Universiteit Delft, Mekelweg 5, Delft Voorafgaand aan de verdediging geef ik Nils Rosmuller om 13.00 uur een korte uiteenzetting van mijn onderzoek Na afloop van de verdediging is een receptie The Netherlands TRAIL Research School Delft University of Technology Erasmus University Rotterdam University of Groningen P.O. Box 5017 2600 GA Delft The Netherlands Telephone: +31 (0)15 278 60 46 Telefax : +31 (0)15 278 43 33 www.rsTRAIL.nl Nils Rosmuller Paranimfen: Migael Benschop T 06-24653549 Safety Analysis of Transport Corridors E [email protected] Wim Murre T 015-2130474 E [email protected] ISBN: 90-407-2196-3 DUP Sci ence Safety Analysis of Transport Corridors Nils Rosmuller Cover Illustration: Jeroen Martens Cover design: SIGN (Joke Herstel) TRAIL Thesis Series nr. T2001/6, The Netherlands TRAIL Research School Published and distributed by: DUP Science DUP Science is an imprint of Delft University Press P.O. Box 98 600 MG Delft The Netherlands Telephone: +31 15 2785121 Telefax: + 31 15 2781661 E-mail: [email protected] ISBN 90-407-2196-3 Keywords: transport safety, policy analysis, decision-making Copyright © 2001 by Nils Rosmuller (www.rosmuller.nl) All rights reserved. No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the publisher: Delft University Press. Printed in The Netherlands Safety Analysis of Transport Corridors Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Technische Universiteit Delft op gezag van de Rector Magnificus prof. ir. K.F. Wakker, voorzitter van het College voor Promoties, in het openbaar te verdedigen op 12 juni 2001 om 13.30 uur door Nils ROSMULLER doctorandus in de Bestuurskunde en ingenieur in de Technische Bedrijfskunde Geboren te Doetinchem Dit proefschrift is goedgekeurd door de promotor: Prof.dr.ir. R.E.C.M. van der Heijden En door de toegevoegd promotor: Dr.ir. J.A.A.M. Stoop Samenstelling Promotiecommissie: Rector Magnificus, Voorzitter Prof.dr.ir. R.E.C.M. van der Heijden, Technische Universiteit Delft, promotor Dr.ir. J.A.A.M. Stoop, Technische Universiteit Delft, toegevoegd promotor Prof.drs.ir. J.K. Vrijling, Technische Universiteit Delft Prof.dr. A.R. Hale, Technische Universiteit Delft Prof.dr.ir. A.G. Dorée, Universiteit Twente Dr.ir. G.E.G. Beroggi, Technische Universiteit Delft Preface and acknowledgements Risks are apparent everywhere at any time related for example to transportation or sports. Risks are also apparent in writing a pH thesis. Several persons in my professional and private surroundings functioned as ‘safe havens’ in case of emergencies. These people I would like to acknowledge for their contribution to the completion of this thesis. In my professional surroundings, there were three persons in particular which I owe gratitude. Firstly, I owe thesis supervisor Rob van der Heijden for the freedom he gave me to design the research activities myself and for his never ending critical reflection on methodological issues in particular. Secondly, thesis co-supervisor John Stoop for his efforts to introduce me into the field of risk analysis and transportation safety. Thirdly, colleague Giampiero Beroggi for his contributions to the applications of the developed participatory safety analysis approach, and his co-authorship of several scientific articles. Despite the different character of their contributions, the one thing these three persons have in common is their stimulating attitude. It was this attitude which stimulated me, in good and bad times, to complete this thesis. In addition, I thank my room-mates of Room F (they know), and my colleagues of the Transport Policy and Logistics Organization Section of the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management of the Delft University of Technology. Trudie, your corrections of the English scripts made this book readable. This research on safety analysis of transport corridors was partly funded by the Cornelis Lely Stichting of the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works, and Water Management. This research belonged to the Safety of Transportation research program of the Dutch Research School on TRAnsport, Infrastructure and Logistics (TRAIL). I would like to express my appreciation to TRAIL for creating a stimulating scientific surrounding for conducting the research and for taking care of the printing process of this thesis. Finally, I express my gratitude to the Dutch Institute for Fire Service and Disaster Management (Nibra) for facilitating the completion of the thesis in terms of understanding, interest, and time. v In my private surroundings, there are my parents who provided me with the most important gift to succeed in whatever you want, namely persistence. Thanks. Sander, brother, thanks for being there with your relativism and common sense. And of course the sportsmen Migael, Wim and Cristian. You were there when the research activities required alternation: playing indoor soccer with you, Mig, in one team, NGN, is special. Playing tennis with all three of you sharpened the ground strokes as well as the mind. ‘Safety first’ is a generally used expression to indicate some caution. For five years, this expression was incautiously dominating ‘my’ life. As a result, the most valuable person in my life, Silvia, sometimes might had deserved more attention. Nevertheless, Sil, you were the one stimulating me in all my activities in your own style: humorous. This humor we share is what makes you so special for me. Nils Rosmuller Delft, May 2001 vi Contents PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS....................................................................................V PART 1: PROBLEM ANALYSIS 1 TRANSPORT CORRIDORS AND SAFETY ................................................................................1 1.1 Introduction........................................................................................................1 1.2 Transport corridors: ‘new’ solution offered.........................................................2 1.3 Risk analysis......................................................................................................5 1.4 Transport corridors: assumed safety issues ......................................................9 1.4.1 Increased risk?.......................................................................................10 1.4.2 Failing transportation risk analysis? .......................................................12 1.5 Problem statement, research questions and research approach.....................13 1.6 Outline of the dissertation ................................................................................16 2 TRANSPORTATION RISK ANALYSIS IN THEORY ...................................................................17 2.1 Introduction......................................................................................................17 2.2 Transportation risk analysis .............................................................................17 2.3 Line infrastructure users ..................................................................................21 2.3.1 Hazard identification...............................................................................21 2.3.2 Risk assessment ....................................................................................21 2.3.3 Risk evaluation.......................................................................................25 2.4 People in the vicinity of line infrastructures......................................................26 2.4.1 Hazard identification...............................................................................26 2.4.2 Risk assessment ....................................................................................26 2.4.3 Risk evaluation.......................................................................................37 2.5 Emergency response.......................................................................................39 2.5.1 Hazard identification...............................................................................39 2.5.2 Risk assessment ....................................................................................39 2.5.3 Risk evaluation.......................................................................................42 2.6 Discussion .......................................................................................................42 3 TRANSPORT CORRIDORS: INCREASED RISKS?...................................................................47 3.1 Introduction......................................................................................................47 3.2 Framework for understanding transport corridor risks .....................................48 3.3 Accident scenarios...........................................................................................54 3.4 Accident frequency and causes.......................................................................60 3.5 Accident consequences...................................................................................73