SOURCING AIR SUPREMACY: DETERMINANTS of CHANGE in the INTERNATIONAL FIGHTER JET NETWORK a Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty
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SOURCING AIR SUPREMACY: DETERMINANTS OF CHANGE IN THE INTERNATIONAL FIGHTER JET NETWORK A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Government By Raymond K. Rounds III, M.P.P. Washington, D.C. April 3, 2019 Copyright 2019 by Raymond K. Rounds III All Rights Reserved ii SOURCING AIR SUPREMACY: DETERMINANTS OF CHANGE IN THE INTERNATIONAL FIGHTER JET NETWORK Raymond K. Rounds III, M.P.P. Thesis Advisor: Andrew Bennett, Ph.D. ABSTRACT International arms transfers stand at the intersection of security studies and international political economy. They are not simply economic exchanges or transfers in goods, but a crucial part of larger state-to-state relationships. This project investigates fighter aircraft, the single largest segment of the international arms network, to better understand what drives change in these transfer relationships. Most states are unable to indigenously produce fighter jets and are dependent upon one of a very few producers for sourcing their fighter fleets. Because of the large creation costs and path dependent characteristics of these sourcing relationships, changing them comes only at great economic and operational military expense for the importers. Despite these high costs, change does occur; this project explains why. Using a newly coded dataset of international fighter aircraft transfers and descriptive network analysis, I demonstrate, counter to much of the arms trade literature, the fighter jet transfer network has become more centralized following the Cold War, not less. I use this analysis as a foundational platform for the primary research question: under what conditions are states willing to accept the high economic and military costs associated with sourcing change? I propose a typological theory incorporating six independent variables and generating five hypotheses. The proposed causal mechanisms of change address access to new capabilities, political bloc alignment, threat environment, patron security reliance, supply security, and domestic production growth. I test the theory utilizing eight case studies from three different states – Poland, Egypt, and Brazil. In each case I find evidence of the theorized barriers to change caused by the efficiencies and path dependencies of status quo sourcing. Importantly, in the cases of sourcing change the evidence confirms the important causal role of the theorized mechanisms of change. This project offers a novel way to examine the vastly understudied demand-side sourcing decisions in the international arms network and helps to explain and anticipate when these important sourcing changes occur. This project’s framework also holds the potential to be used in future research when applied to other sectors of the arms trade, promising further advances in our understanding of these important international networks. iii To my parents, with eternal gratitude for your love and example of perseverance and strength in the face of hardship. To my sister, whose light illuminated our lives and shines forever in our hearts. And to my wife and children, who bring meaning and joy to this adventure we call life, and without whom I would be lost. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Throughout the research and writing of this dissertation I have become indebted to countless people for their help, advice, insight, and remarkable generosity with their time. A few words of thanks are embarrassingly insufficient to repay these debts but remains the best I can offer. My time at Georgetown has been one of the greatest opportunities of my life. This was made possible by the leadership at the United States Air Force School for Advanced Air and Space Studies, who took a huge chance in granting me this opportunity, and the people that make up Georgetown University, which provides a world-class experience. I am so very grateful to my fellow students and cohort, who amaze me with their intellect and insight, and the faculty, who are not only remarkable academics, but hold dear the responsibility of teaching and mentoring. I am particularly thankful to my committee members, Andy Bennett, Dan Byman, and Jon Caverley, who have provided so much time and effort to offer insight, advice, and best of all – constructive criticism. They have shown tremendous patience and kindness throughout. I would be remiss without highlighting my committee chair Andy Bennett, from whom I took at least one course during each semester of coursework. One of our many discussions during office hours provided the inspiration that sparked this idea. He has also acted as mentor and advisor, providing immeasurable assistance in socializing me to the academic profession. Despite having little to offer in return, you have chosen to give me so much. I want to also thank the many experts that took time to offer their insights, perspectives, and experiences. Specifically, Richard Aboulafia, Brig Gen Richard Boutwell (USAF), Heidi Grant, LTG Charles Hooper (USA), Maj Gen (ret.) Lawrence Martin (USAF), Lt Col Bill Ott (USAF), Lt Col Josh Quinn (USAF), and several sources who requested to remain confidential. Without their help, this research could never have gotten off the ground. Finally, I am grateful to my fellow military cohort colleagues, Stephan Pikner and Cole Livieratos, who have provided a sounding board for ideas, both good and bad, and frustrations, as well as advice and friendship. They have offered valuable feedback to several iterations of this project – all without complaint. Ultimately, I thank God for everything; good, bad, and otherwise. Life is truly a gift. In gratitude, Ray v TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1: Introduction .................................................................................................... 1 Fighter Jet Basics ......................................................................................................... 3 Why Fighter Jets? ........................................................................................................ 7 Previous Research in the Arms Trade and Fighter Aircraft ....................................... 10 The Way Ahead ......................................................................................................... 17 Chapter 2: The International Fighter Jet Transfer Network: Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose ................................................................................................... 20 State-to-State Ties ...................................................................................................... 21 Arms Diffusion or Confusion? ................................................................................... 26 Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 44 Chapter 3: Changing Network Ties: A Theory of Sourcing Change ............................ 46 Climbing Ladders in Fighter Acquisitions ................................................................. 47 Typological Methodology .......................................................................................... 50 Fighter Sourcing Change Framework ........................................................................ 51 Two-Tiered Dependent Variable ............................................................................... 53 Independent Variables and Conditions of Change ..................................................... 60 The Data on Change and Case Selection ................................................................... 88 Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 93 Chapter 4: Poland: Political Blocs in the Post-Cold War Era ........................................ 95 Poland Transitions from the Cold War ...................................................................... 98 2003 – New Fighters for a New NATO Nation ....................................................... 101 NATO-member Poland Adding MiG-29s ............................................................... 118 vi Using a Typology of Change to Predict the Status Quo .......................................... 127 Results and Conclusion ............................................................................................ 136 Chapter 5: Egypt: High-Threat Environment, Embargos, and Change ...................... 142 Egyptian Foreign Policy, Military Acquisitions, and Geopolitics ........................... 145 As Expected – Adding to American Aircraft .......................................................... 152 The Russian Turn – Addressing Supply Insecurity with MiGs ............................... 171 Revitalizing the French Connection – Ready Rafales ............................................. 191 The 2015 Aftermath ................................................................................................. 198 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 201 Chapter 6: Brazil: The Importance of Domestic Production Autonomy and Technology Transfer ............................................................................................... 202 Acquisition, Production, and Geopolitical Context ................................................ 203 Abridged Aspirations for an Acquisitions Mirage ................................................... 208 Surprising