ASIA FIGHTER REVIEW Asia Fighter Review

Singapore shops for new platforms as part of transformation BY MIKE YEO ly completed taking delivery of 40 Boeing F-15SG [email protected] Strike Eagle multirole fighters, which serve alongside other and such as MELBOURNE, Australia — The Republic of Sin- F-16C/D Block 52/52+ Fighting gapore Air Force celebrates its 50th anniversary Falcons and Boeing AH-64D Apache this year as it continues its transformation into . a modern fighting force, with the service due to The Air Force will also start taking delivery of take delivery of new platforms this year amid a the first of six Airbus A330 Multi-Role Tanker number of ongoing procurement programs. Transports, which will replace four ex-U.S. Air The Southeast Asian island nation — which Force KC-135 Stratotankers acquired in the late measures roughly one-third the size of the U.S. 1990s along with five Lockheed Martin KC-130B/H state of Rhode Island in terms of land area and Hercules tankers/transports, which have now is strategically located at the southern end of the gone back to serve as airlifters in Singapore’s Air Straits of Malacca, through which a significant Force alongside five C-130Hs. portion of the world’s maritime trade passes — The service is also expected to receive two is a security cooperation partner of the United Lockheed Martin S-70B Seahawk anti-submarine States and operates one of the most advanced helicopters this year, bringing its fleet to eight. militaries in the region. It is also recapitalizing its transport helicopter The Singaporean military is transforming itself fleet with the order of the Airbus Helicopters into an integrated, networked fighting force, and H225M Caracal medium-lift helicopter and the the Air Force is no exception. The service recent- Boeing CH-47F Chinook to replace earlier ver- Other ongoing procurement programs include sions of both helicopter types. Their delivery the acquisition of new is expected to begin around the 2019-2020 time to replace five Fokker 50 Maritime Enforcer Mk frame. 2 aircraft that have been in service since the late Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin is upgrading the 1990s, along with the replacement of the Air Republic of Singapore Air Force’s fleet of 60 F-16s Force’s 10 Hercules transports. The Boeing P-8 under a contract signed in 2014. They will be fitted Poseidon has been flagged as a possible contend- with the Northrop Grumman AN/APG-83 Scalable er for the former requirement, though sources Agile Beam , which is an active electronical- close to the program tell Defense News the Air ly scanned array radar, and Link 16 data links. The Force prefers a less manpower-intensive solution, F-16s will be expected to serve until the 2030s. with business jet-based platforms such as Saab’s Due to a shortage of airspace for training, 12 Swordfish or Aerospace Industries’ IAI EL/I- of Singapore’s F-16s are based at Luke Air Force 3360 also in the running. Base in Arizona for training in a mixed squadron Both offerings are based on the Global Ex- of personnel from the Singaporean and American press-series of business jets. Saab says the Sword- air forces. fish offers similar capability to the P-8 at a frac- A similar arrangement is in place for F-15SG tion of the operating cost. crew training at Mountain Home Air Force Base Singapore also operates four Fokker 50s in its in Idaho, while Singaporean Apache and Chinook baseline light transport/utility configuration along- crews train with their National Guard counter- side the Maritime Enforcer 2s, but it’s unknown if parts in Arizona and Texas, respectively. there are plans are in the offing to replace these. Upcoming procurements Despite undergoing an upgrade program to Singapore has a reputation as a discerning buyer bring its avionics to a modern, fleetwide common of military equipment. The country has evaluated cockpit configuration that will allow the fleet to the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike operate in line with international aviation require- Fighter, with particular interest in the F-35B ments, Singapore’s fleet of C-130B/H Hercules short-takeoff-and-vertical-landing, or STOVL, airlifters will likely need to be replaced soon. variant although it has requested information on The oldest aircraft ― two ex-U.S. Air Force and a all three variants of the F-35, according to former number of former Jordanian C-130Bs ― were built F-35 Joint Program Office head Lt. Gen. Christo- in the late 1950s and early 1960s and have provid- pher Bogdan. ed sterling service since they were acquired by With its limited land area and the upcoming clo- Singapore’s Air Force in the 1970s. sure of one of its three fighter bases, the STOVL Both Airbus and Lockheed Martin have been variant would offer Singapore the ability to gen- marketing the A400M and C-130J respectively erate air power even in the event of a successful in Singapore, even though the Air Force there strike on its runways. However, Singapore’s de- has given no indication it plans to replace the fense minister, Ng Eng Hen, has said that despite venerable Hercules. However, with the C-130Bs being impressed with the F-35, the country is in approaching six decades of service, a search for no hurry to place an order given the Air force sees a replacement would surely take on an increasing no need for a new fighter until the latter half of urgency. DN the 2020s, at the earliest. Asia Fighter Review The F-35 could help create a defense architecture across the Asia-Pacific region roponents for the F-35 Joint collection, fusion and dissemination have long insist- of actionable intelligence; and the Ped the aircraft would funda- employment of the most appropriate mentally transform air combat and unit of action across multiple do- ensure U.S. and allied dominance of mains. the air domain for decades to come. Ongoing combat exercises and The evidence is proving the truth of tests have demonstrated that the this prophesy. F-35’s combination of stealthiness, At last year’s Red Flag exercise, maneuverability, sophisticated elec- the F-35A racked up an impressive tronics, active and passive sensors, 15-to-1 kill ratio, targeting hostile battle management software, and air targets before they were even advanced data links will make it a aware of the Joint Strike Fighter’s Senior Vice President key enabler in all of these emerging presence. The JSF also was able to DANIEL GOURE concepts of future warfare. locate and attack advanced surface- The Lexington Institute According to pilots that have par- to-air threats with pinpoint accu- ticipated in numerous simulations racy, blowing holes in hostile air and experiments, the F-35’s abilities defenses through which non-stealthy aircraft can to penetrate further, see more clearly, assess advance. Equally important, the F-35 can act as a faster and directly distribute information to other forward-deployed intelligence, surveillance and aircraft is overturning the traditional top-down reconnaissance platform, employing its advanced approach to the management of air operations. As sensors to multiply the effectiveness of older air- one U.S. Air Force officer described the potential craft in air-to-air combat. for change this way: “If you rewrite rules of en- As the U.S. military acquires the F-35 in numbers gagement to reflect how fifth-generation aircraft and learns how to exploit its unique attributes, can sense, fuse, share and act on information, the services are discovering the aircraft’s poten- it enables us to delegate decision-making from tial to enable entirely new ways of organizing, much higher levels down to individual cockpits. integrating and employing their assets alongside That’s all because we’re seeing the same picture joint and coalition forces. Each service has differ- ent names for its concept for future operations: Multi-Domain Battle, Multi-Domain Command Equipped with extremely and Control, Distributed Lethality, Naval Integrat- high-speed missiles or a laser ed Fire Control-Counter Air and Maneuver War- fare in Every Dimension. weapon, a forward-deployed What these approaches have in common is a F-35 could provide a limited focus on the creation of resilient networks of sen- boost phase defense. sors, platforms and weapons systems; the rapid

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and able to operate in places others cannot.” mobile sensor in support of theater air and missile What should be of particular interest to U.S. defense. allies in the Asia-Pacific region is the potential There is even the possibility that the F-35 could for all the F-35 variants to support air and mis- directly engage short- and medium-range ballistic sile defense operations. The U.S. Navy is work- missiles. Equipped with extremely high-speed ing hard to make the F-35 a central player in the missiles or a laser weapon, a forward-deployed architecture for its Naval Integrated Fire Con- F-35 could provide a limited boost phase defense. trol-Counter Air. In 2016, the service successfully The U.S. Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps demonstrated that the F-35B could serve as a plan to acquire more than 2,000 F-35s. In the forward-deployed sensor for the Aegis ballistic near future, all three variants will be present in missile defense system firing a Standard Missile-6 the Asia-Pacific region. When the F-35B and the at an aerial target. carrier-based F-35C are fully deployed, the Navy A live-fire exercise involving the F-35B and Aegis and Marine Corps will have hundreds of poten- is planned for this year. In 2014, the U.S. Missile tial airborne sensors deployed aboard large-deck Defense Agency conducted an experiment that amphibious warfare vessels and aircraft carriers successfully demonstrated the ability of the F-35’s with which to conduct air and missile defense distributed aperture system – a set of electro-opti- operations. cal and infrared sensors – to develop a 3-D moving In addition, U.S. allies are acquiring this picture of a ballistic missile’s trajectory. The F-35 fifth-generation fighter. Australia, one of the could pass information to land- and sea-based original partners in the program, plans to buy 100 missile defense systems such as Patriot, Terminal F-35As. Japan and have announced High Altitude Area Defense and Aegis to support plans to acquire 42 and 40 F-35As, respectively. over-the-horizon capabilities. Other nations may soon see the wisdom of being Recently, officials from the U.S. Army’s Space part of the F-35 “family.” Together, the U.S. and its and Missile Defense Command held discussions allies can use their F-35s to support a sensor-com- with representatives of the F-35 program office munications network to support regional missile and operational users regarding ways of employ- defenses reaching from the South Sea to ing the Joint Strike Fighter as a forward-based, the Arctic. DN Asia Fighter Review Hedging against China in the Indo-Pacific region or over seven decades, the nervous allies of its unwavering fabric of the rules-based commitment while countering Chi- Finternational order put into na’s increasing regional leverage and place by the victors of World War II militarized presence in the South has endured. Slowly, however, as the China Sea. 21st century has unfolded, this fabric One such means of doing so has has begun to fray as revanchist and been to cultivate and advance multi- rising powers lay claim to what they lateral security and defense arrange- perceive to be their rightful spheres ments with like-minded countries of influence and status as regional – across the region. even global – hegemons. Against this backdrop has re- One such example is unfolding in emerged talk of a quadrilateral initia- the Indo-Pacific region, where China Senior Military Markets Analyst tive, the so-called Quad – a dialogue has wielded its gathering economic DANIEL DARLING involving Australia, , Japan and and military might to leverage its the meant to foster contested territorial claims and cre- Forecast International Inc. cooperation among the four mari- ate de facto new realities on the seas time democracies as they confront and on the ground. This, in turn, has the emerging security challenges in reshaped the strategic environment, tested U.S. the region. resolve and unsettled regional actors who until While such dialogue among the four nations a just a decade ago either invested little in their decade ago elicited pushback from a China an- own militaries or sought shelter under the U.S. gered by what it cast as an “Asian NATO,” ulti- security umbrella. mately squashing an arrangement before it was China’s economic, territorial and great-power even born, this time around there is less reluc- ambitions have naturally not gone unnoticed, par- tance to address the Chinese dragon in the room. ticularly by those nations in East and South Asia Since the time of the lone exploratory Quad contesting China’s claims. Many are made ner- meeting in May 2007, formerly inward-looking vous by gradual changes to the global status quo China has pursued its outward goals in an in- in which a presence serves to ensure maritime trade routes remain open to international commerce and acts as a counter to China’s economic, territorial China’s expanding naval reach. and great-power ambitions As China has expanded its maritime reach and capability while securing its immediate perime- have naturally not gone ter via anti-access/area denial upgrades, the U.S. unnoticed. has gradually found itself scrambling to reassure

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creasingly assertive manner. Sometimes this pursuit – as in the case of its South China Sea land reclamation and militarization actions – has been undertaken contrary to recognized international rulings. Beijing has also sought to bring regional nations under its influence through financial and diplomatic coaxing or coercive bullying. Thus the climate under which the Quad partners once again met last November has changed con- siderably in relation to China. Though it is far too early to determine what may sented a market worth $113 billion in consolidat- come of any quadrilateral initiative, one possi- ed top-line defense spending for 2017 – a figure bility may be a cooperation arrangement formed that will only continue to grow in the coming upon a disaster relief, maritime security and pos- years as all three seek to modernize and upgrade sibly even a military basis. their militaries across a range of capabilities. Washington supports its partners in the region Opportunities for U.S. sales to India alone in- through joint exercises and training as well as clude combat aircraft, maritime helicopters, education programs, and by basing military per- unmanned aerial and underwater vehicles, aircraft sonnel and hardware within the confines of an al- carrier technology, and intelligence, surveillance lied nation – all of which form part of its security and reconnaissance platforms. cooperation toolkit and represent a cornerstone Among the four nations, there emerges potential of its foreign policy outreach. Defense trade – areas for joint research and development such as often sustained through foreign military financing missile and missile-launch platforms, propulsion provided to allies by Washington – has long served systems, and niche “smart” technologies spanning as a means of securing partnerships with allies. from robotics to virtual reality training to individ- In this regard, Washington and its three potential ual foot-soldier gear (eyewear, textiles, etc.). Quad partners already have strong trade ties. For now, Washington continues to push forward Australia is one of the largest purchasers of U.S.- with defense and security cooperation on a pri- sourced military hardware, with Japan a signif- marily bilateral and trilateral basis, with India icant licensed producer of American platforms often seen as a reluctant holdout to broadening its (particularly and helicopters). cooperation arrangements to a quadrilateral foot- The U.S. elevated India to the status of “major de- ing due to concerns over pushback from China. fense partner” in 2016, granting it access to some Going forward, any potential quadrilateral com- sensitive defense technologies, with both sides pact will require reassurances by the Quad na- then reaffirming their intent to jointly develop tions to each other of reliability; sustainment of military systems under their Defense Technology effort amid the inevitable governmental changes and Trade Initiative in September 2017. brought about by the democratic process; and the Thus, the field appears clear for deeper quadri- creation of an architecture open to other demo- lateral engagement in the areas of defense trade cratic nations of the region that share the security and the design of military technologies, and outlook and strategic interests of the establish- through cross-pollination of research and devel- ment partners. opment. All told, the three countries with which Anything less might open the door for a China Washington seeks to deepen cooperation repre- that benefits from regional disunity. DN

Defense News: Asia Fighter Review defensenews.com | 7 Asia Fighter Review Cormorants over the Indo-Pacific: An update on maritime strike fighters ith the focus mainly on the offshore defense posture, the PLA- maritime sphere, the In- NAF correspondingly improved its Wdo-Pacific new-generation standoff strike capability. It is also fighter scene has apparently taken a enhancing its aviators’ ability to backseat. In reality, this is not so the carry out overwater missions under case. While the most prominent as- all-weather conditions. Notably, in pects of the region’s maritime forces August 2017, the first batch of PLA- capacity development have largely NAF-trained aviators successfully revolved around submarines – which completed night missions over the tend to garner immense amounts of South China Sea, practicing, among attention due to their precisely enig- various aspects, target search and matic nature – and surface combat- strike. ants bristling with guided missiles, Research Fellow The Xi’an JH-7 aircraft – which the maritime strike fighter, or MSF, SWEE LEAN COLLIN KOH could be deemed analogous to the component is an area that has often Panavia Tornado IDS, whose an- S. Rajaratnam School of been overlooked. International Studies ti-ship dedicated variant once served This particular aspect is primarily with the West German Luftwaffe subsumed under the regional quest – constituted the mainstay of this for new multirole fighter jets that serve in both air new force. Armed with the YJ-83 anti-ship cruise forces and dedicated naval air arms. The extent of missile, among other long-range munitions, the development and emphasis tends to differ across Flying Leopard, as it was called, has now entered the Indo-Pacific, with subregions exhibiting the JH-7A variant with improved avionics includ- unique characteristics. ing surface search and targeting capabilities. This is backed up by a fewer number of Russian-built Northeast Asia Su-30MK2 Flanker-H fighters that are adapted to China operates a dedicated naval air arm, the launch both Chinese and Russian anti-ship cruise People’s Liberation Army Naval Air Force, that is missiles. The J-15 Flying Shark, the PLANAF’s predominantly land-based alongside a nascent but first carrierborne fighter, certainly has a primary expanding carrierborne fighter force. PLANAF anti-ship role alongside a fleet air-defense role. land-based MSFs used to be tailored for coastal During an exercise in December 2016, the J-15 interdiction, pretty much in line with the earlier, demonstrated this aspect by successfully test-fir- passive coastal defense doctrine the Navy ad- ing a YJ-83. opted. J-6 and J-7 fighters – clones of the Soviet Elsewhere in Northeast Asia, the Japan Air MiG-19 and MiG-21, respectively – would stage Self-Defense Force anti-shipping mainstay is the maritime airstrikes using rockets and free-fall Mitsubishi F-2, which is armed with the Type 80 bombs. However, in accordance with the People’s and Type 93 subsonic anti-ship cruise missiles. Liberation Army Navy’s drive toward an active, South Korea’s Air Force operates the KF-16 and

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F-15K multirole fighters which have the ability to shared with the , which has a launch AGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship cruise missiles. dedicated anti-ship squadron of Jaguar-IMs. There The same applies to the Taiwanese Air Force’s is no prospect of the Indian Naval Air Arm taking F-16s. However, Northeast Asia has been the on sole responsibility of anti-shipping strikes. The scene of development for supersonic anti-ship Indian Air Force is keen to preserve this capabili- cruise missiles, which would greatly enhance the ty, having acquired 22 AGM-84L Harpoon Block-II anti-shipping power of these air arms. anti-ship cruise missiles for the Jaguar-IM and China has apparently adapted the YJ-12, which is test-fired it in May 2015. The Air Force’s upgraded in turn based on the Soviet/Russian Kh-41 Moskit MiG-29UPG also features the Kh-35U. The ser- (NATO code name SS-N-22 Sunburn) and which vice’s Sukhoi Su-30MKI test-fired an air-launched also exists in its CM-302 export variant. Japan variant of the BrahMos – the sole supersonic is also on the cusp of inducting the latest ASM-3 anti-ship cruise missile indigenous to South Asia on board the F-2s. Even though South Korea and – in November 2017 and is tipped to gradually Taiwan are developing similar types of missiles, integrate the missile with the Sukhois. there is no evidence indicating the existence of Unlike its Indian rival, the Naval Avi- air-launched variants. However, given the trends ation has no dedicated MSF component, which spearheaded by China and Japan, it is not pre- is found with the Air Force operating the Mi- sumptuous that these two smaller Northeast rage-5PA3 armed with the AM-39 Exocet, a ven- Asian countries would follow suit in due time. erable but aging design like the fighter itself. The has since acquired the JF-17 South Asia Thunder, a multirole fighter equipped with the In South Asia, the key players in the MSF realm more capable Chinese-origin C-802A. are India and Pakistan. The Indian Naval Air Arm Meanwhile, the other smaller South Asian air operates the carrierborne MiG-29K Fulcrum-D, forces operate their fighters mainly in the air de- whose primary anti-ship weapon is the Russian fense and ground attack roles, less so for anti-ship Kh-35U Uran, but maritime strike roles are also purposes, even though they are theoretically ca-

Defense News: Asia Fighter Review defensenews.com | 9 Asia Fighter Review pable of such a mission using free-fall bombs and rockets. The extent of development However, the Air Force is slated to soon induct the JF-17 into service. If the variant is and emphasis tends to differ armed with the C-802A, which is possible consid- across the Indo-Pacific, with ering that the Myanmar armed forces count as one subregions exhibiting unique of the key clientele for Chinese anti-ship cruise missiles, then it would confer this South Asian characteristics. country with its first standoff maritime strike capability. the jets. Given the opacity of Southeast Asian MSF pro- Southeast Asia grammes, one could only draw snippets of in- Southeast Asia by comparison to the above- formation to get a sense of the future trajectory, mentioned Indo-Pacific subregions has seen little which looks to be modest compared to the North- movement in this area. In fact, not much informa- east and South Asian subregions. In large part, it tion has been forthcoming in the public domain has to do with funding. In July 2017, Malaysia put regarding the MSF capabilities among Southeast on the back burner its $2 billion multirole com- Asian militaries, despite the induction of signifi- bat aircraft replacement program in favor of new cant multirole fighters by those air forces over the maritime patrol and . The recent decades. Scant photographic evidence is anti-ship mantle would continue to fall on the F/A- available with regard to those fighters’ maritime 18D Hornet, of which eight serve the Royal Malay- strike capabilities. The most recent images cir- sian Air Force, armed with the Harpoon anti-ship culating online are of the ’s cruise missile, and 18 Su-30MKM armed with the JAS 39C Gripen, which showcased a loadout of Kh-31A. two Swedish-made RB-15 anti-ship cruise missiles Vietnam is keen to acquire the BrahMos, osten- during a military public exhibition. sibly to arm its Sukhois, though no official an- By far the most commonly deployed anti-ship nouncement of a deal with India has been made. cruise missile for the Southeast Asian land-based A successful induction of this missile would allow fighter force is the Russian Kh-31A (NATO code the Vietnam People’s Air Force to progressively name AS-17 Krypton), a medium-range missile retire the aging Su-22 Fitters that have constituted that arms Su-30MK variants, which serve the Indo- the main part of its maritime strike role, much in nesian, Malaysian and Vietnamese air forces. the same vein as their former counterparts in the The Republic of Singapore Air Force F-16C/D East German and Polish air forces. and F-15SG multirole fighters also have maritime Future trajectory strike roles, as they have featured in bilateral na- Even though MSF proliferation has often been val exercises with the Americans and Indians. But relegated to the shadows of and subsumed within little details have emerged regarding their modus the region’s broader naval and air arms buildup operandi. However, it is safe to assume that these processes, these developments are no less signifi- assets would carry out anti-shipping strikes using cant compared to the acquisition of other capabil- a variety of precision-guided munitions, including ities. This proliferation has often been relegated the Paveway-series laser-guided bombs. The AGM- to the shadows of and subsumed within the re- 84 Harpoon, which equips the Air Force’s Fokker gion’s broader naval buildup processes. But these 50 maritime patrol aircraft, could plausibly arm developments are no less significant compared to

Defense News: Asia Fighter Review defensenews.com | 10 Asia Fighter Review the acquisition of other capabilities. tal training. Overwater operations require special- In fact, given the durability of defense postures ized skill sets on the part of the aviators trained observed among the Indo-Pacific countries, a for maritime strike, which usually takes place land-based maritime strike capability would at low, wave-top or sea-skimming altitude. Even continue to remain relevant for the purpose of a slightest human error or tactical misjudgment pushing further the seaward defensive envelope. could potentially result in a mishap. The Indo-Pa- This is conceived with two key strategic purpos- cific maritime domain is one fraught with geopo- es in mind: the first being to enhance offshore litical disputes, especially in the East and South strategic depth, especially in view of the prolifer- China seas. The likelihood of encounters between ation of long-range expeditionary platforms that the regional militaries’ MSFs and surface vessels could pose a greater threat to one’s shores. The can be said to be from moderate to high. It would second carries a more coercive and offensive not be uncommon for, say, Chinese MSFs of the purpose – that being to threaten enemy shipping, PLANAF to buzz foreign warships that Beijing both civilian and military, if necessary in times of deems to be encroaching upon its sovereign or conflict. Even though attacking innocent civilian jurisdictional waters. shipping in times of war could provoke an inter- Not all aviators could pull the sort of aerial national backlash, as seen during the so-called stunts like what Russian Su-24 air crews did when -Iraq tanker war in the 1980s, it is conceivable they conducted daredevil, low-level flybys over to imagine that land-based MSF capabilities could the American destroyer Porter in February 2017 be utilized for this purpose in the geopolitically in the Black Sea. Such actions would be unneces- volatile Indo-Pacific. sarily provocative and risk the safety of personnel Clearly, the proliferation of multirole fighters onboard both the MSFs and the targeted ships. and the advent of air-launched long-range subson- Hence, while regional air arms are honing their ic and supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles from an maritime strike capabilities, it is contingent increasing variety of vendors – both international upon them to not just ensure air crew training at and Asian – would enable Indo-Pacific militaries the highest, most stringent levels, but also their to keep fine-tuning this particular capability. professionalism and self-restraint in times of real, However, less clear is the aspect of human capi- at-sea operations. DN

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Japan and South Korea face headwinds on homegrown jets

BY MIKE YEO tries X-2 Advanced Technology Demonstrator X, [email protected] or ATD-X, will conclude in March 2018. MELBOURNE, Australia — Japan’s and South Ko- The ATD-X was developed by the Japanese rea’s aspirations for homegrown fighter jets have Ministry of Defense’s Technical Research and run into headwinds, even though both are set to Development Institute for research purposes press on with their respective projects. and to test advanced stealth fighter technologies. The two Asian nations are customers of the The aircraft is powered by a pair of Ishikawaji- Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II Joint Strike ma-Harima Heavy Industries XF5 low-bypass tur- Fighter, but are keen to develop their indigenous bofan engines, each producing more than 11,000 fighter jet programs to develop their industrial pounds of thrust. base and boost local aerospace industries. The ATD-X made its first flight in 2016 and is be- An FMS shift in Japan ing flown from the Japan Air Self-Defense Force’s Japan originally planned to develop its indige- Air Development and Test Wing at Gifu Air Base, nous fighter, tentatively designated the F-3, and having completed 34 of 50 planned test flights in introduce it into service by the early 2030s. How- November 2017. ever, reports from late 2017 indicate that the de- Despite uncertainty about the F-3’s future, devel- cision on whether to go ahead with the program opment of the program continues, with concept will be pushed back to 2018. designs being refined. Japan is keen to restart These reports came as Japan’s Acquisition, Tech- indigenous fighter development and manufactur- nology and Logistics Agency announced that the ing, which ended in 2011 when the last Mitsubishi flight test program of the Mitsubishi Heavy Indus- F-2 fighter was delivered to the Japan Air Self-De-

Defense News: Asia Fighter Review defensenews.com | 12 fense Force and the decision was made to acquire South Korea will be the majority partner in the F-35A with local industry participating in the the program, while Indonesia will contribute final assembly of JASDF’s F-35s. 20 percent of the project cost in return for one This has disappointed local industry, which prototype, design participation, technical data and had hoped to secure component manufacturing production sharing, with the option to procure 50 contracts in the F-35 program to retain industrial aircraft at a later date. capabilities. Since the 1970s, Japan had pursued The overall development program is estimated a policy of developing a domestic, autonomous to cost $8 billion, with the first prototype sched- defense industrial base that can meet its defense uled to roll out in 2022 and deliveries due to begin needs through licensing agreements and other in 2026. methods of technology transfer and acquisition. The KF-X is a twin-engine, twin-tail, low-observ- However, Japan’s uncertain security situation, able design. General Electric has been picked to with North Korea’s continuing ballistic missile and supply the F414 turbofan engine ― which currently nuclear weapons program as well as China’s rising powers the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet ― for the military might means Japan’s defense needs have KF-X. South Korea’s Hanwha will supply an infrared become more urgent, with priorities shifting onto search and track system, an active electronically programs with shorter entry-into-service dates. scanned array radar and a targeting pod. One of the consequences of this shift is that Japan South Korea plans to integrate the European has significantly increased the amount of defense Meteor and IRIS-T air-to-air missiles on the KF-X. equipment acquired via the U.S. government’s For- However, reports have emerged that Indonesia eign Military Sales program, with Japan allocating has fallen behind in its share of program pay- $4.43 billion for FMS acquisitions in its fiscal 2016 ments. A South Korean politician revealed in budget compared to just $392 million in FY2011. November 2017 that a payment of $124.5 million That figure set to grow even higher in the com- that was due the month before had not been paid. ing years, with more F-35s, Boeing KC-46A tank- Recently, Indonesian defense officials told local ers, Lockheed Martin Aegis Ashore systems and media that Indonesia still owes $140 million to other ballistic missile defense-related acquisitions South Korea for its share in the program. planned. The payment delay is a consequence of the con- According to Corey Wallace, a postdoctoral fel- tinuing budget crunch in Indonesia, which has in low in the Graduate School of East Asian Studies turn led to weak growth for the country’s defense at Freie Universitat in Berlin, , this trend budget, with its budget increasing by 1.2 percent toward FMS is understandable. Still, he believes the in 2017 following a cut the year before. trend should eventually be reversed because local Sources in Indonesia tell Defense News that the defense companies are hurt when they lose out on Southeast Asian country is renegotiating its finan- contracts and capabilities. The trend, he added, also cial position in the program, including the repay- contributes to underfunding of other defense priori- ment of its contribution shortfall. ties as well as research and development. Despite this news ― and recent reports that South Korea‘s partnership problem Indonesia has sought information on pricing for Meanwhile, South Korea is developing the KF-X new fighters including the Lockheed Martin F-16 multirole fighter with Indonesia. Korea Aerospace and the ― Indonesia remains Industries is the program’s primary contractor, keen on participating in the KF-X program, al- and Indonesia’s government-owned PT Dirgantara though the scope of its involvement may be re- Indonesia is the project partner. duced as a result. DN

Defense News: Asia Fighter Review defensenews.com | 13 Asia Fighter Review The Asian fighter market in perspective he Singapore Airshow is im- one cost-effective package. portant to the world’s fighter Meanwhile, the ability of Asian Tmanufacturers for one very countries to pay for new jets has simple reason: Asia takes 24 per- served as a market catalyst. Most of cent of the world’s combat aircraft the region has enjoyed strong eco- exports by value. That makes it the nomic growth, particularly in South second-largest export fighter market Korea and Singapore. Relatively high in the world, after the Middle East. commodity prices have bolstered Over the past 10 years, a total of government resources in emerging 561 jets worth $39.1 billion in 2018 Asian market countries, such as dollars were exported by the world’s Indonesia or . fighter manufacturers, excluding Only Malaysia stands out as an Russian and Chinese designs. Of Vice President of Analysis exception; while the country has the these, 128 aircraft worth $9.2 billion RICHARD ABOULAFIA resources needed for a strong mili- went to Asian countries, including tary, it has let its air power capabili- Australia. Teal Group ties badly lag. A fighter competition The Asian fighter market is also could begin in 2020, but there have growing at a strong pace; the re- been false starts down this road gion’s fighter order backlog is considerably larger before. than the historical market. Almost 200 Lockheed Japan, South Korea, Australia and Singapore Martin F-35s are on order for Australia, Japan have represented the high end of the market, and South Korea, with Singapore likely to join the both in Asia and globally. Until 2015, only these F-35 club in the next 10 years. More Korea Aero- countries, plus Israel and Saudi Arabia, have ever space Industries T-50/FA-50s are on the way for purchased an exported fighter with a unit price Thailand, with more likely for the Philippines. greater than $50 million. Regional demand for major upgrade packag- Historically, that has meant operating a Boe- es, such as the South Korean, Singaporean and ing F-15 (or in Australia’s case, an F-111, finally Taiwanese F-16 enhancement programs, mean retired in December 2010). The arrival of the F-35 further work for Western fighter primes. is transforming this high-end market, and while The drivers behind this market are clear and Boeing will get considerable upgrade work, it is strong. Regional tensions, historical grievances, unlikely that it’ll sell additional current-genera- superpower rivalries, and ongoing territorial and tion fighters in the region. resource access disputes all motivate Asian air One notable characteristic of the region is that services to bolster their air power capabilities. U.S. manufacturers dominate the Asian export Only combat aircraft combine fast deployability, fighter market to a much greater degree than any- real-time surveillance and precision lethality into where else. While Dassault and Eurofighter have

Defense News: Asia Fighter Review defensenews.com | 14 Asia Fighter Review

done well in the Middle East, they have yet to poration built the Ching-kuo , but the sell any of their current-generation planes east of firm is now focusing on a less ambitious trainer India. Saab has sold 12 Gripen C/Ds to Thailand, derivative, which is expected to be built in the and Korea Aerospace Industries’ T-50 now has a 2020s. regional presence, but and China play a For the future, Korea Aerospace Industries is marginal role in Asia’s fighter market. pressing ahead with the KF-X, a medium-weight, Indigenous programs, not counted in our export twin-engine fighter, designed in conjunction with totals, have been a recurring factor in the Asia Indonesia. Even though South Korea is consid- market. Japan’s Mitsubishi, leveraging previous ering expanding its 40-aircraft F-35 buy with an co-production efforts, built the F-2, a major deriv- additional 20 planes, the KF-X may go ahead, too; ative of the F-16. It may go on to build a next-gen- the country has a very large F-4/F-16 replacement eration stealth fighter (although in November, this requirement. project was deferred). Since Japan now has an Assuming that indigenous projects will continue F-35 final assembly and checkout line, the F-35 to play a relatively marginal role in meeting re- plane may fill Japanese requirements beyond the gional fighter requirements, Asia will be a growth stated 42-aircraft program of record. story for Western fighter primes for many years to Taiwan’s Aerospace Industrial Development Cor- come. DN

Defense News: Asia Fighter Review defensenews.com | 15 Asia Fighter Review

Images reveal China’s J-16 jets stepping up introduction into service

BY MIKE YEO This includes the 172nd and 176th brigades [email protected] of the PLAAF’s Flight Test and Training Center, which is “assigned the task of developing flight MELBOURNE, Australia — China’s new Shen- techniques, combat tactics and training program yang J-16 multirole fighter jet has been entering for new aircraft and equipment,” according to service in increasing numbers with little fanfare, Andreas Rupprecht, who has authored a number with the lion’s share of attention focused on the of books on Chinese . stealthy Chengdu J-20 fighter’s development and The serial number on the aircraft at the recent introduction. exercise indicates that the third unit operating Images released by the Chinese military of a the J-16 is the 98th Brigade based at Chongqing in recent parade and exercise at Cangzhou in Chi- China’s southwest. There have also been reports na’s northeastern Hebei province in early January from China that the 7th Brigade at Wuhu, Anhui show that at least two other People’s Liberation province, is operating the J-16, although Defense Army Air Force, or PLAAF, air brigades have con- News has been unable to confirm this. verted or are in the process of converting to the A small number of J-16s entered service with the J-16, bringing the total to three such units known Flight Test and Training Center’s 176th Brigade to have the type into service. in 2015 for the PLAAF equivalent of operational

Defense News: Asia Fighter Review defensenews.com | 16 testing and evaluation; however multiple sources to-air and air-to-ground missions with its multi- have said the wider introduction of the type into mode AESA radar. PLAAF service was reportedly delayed due to the Like the J-11B/BS, the J-16 is powered by the need to refine the design of its active electronical- Chinese WS-10 Taihang turbofan engine. However, ly scanned array radar developed by China’s No. the J-16 has provision for in-flight refueling, an in- 607 Institute. frared search and track system offset to the right The Shenyang J-16 is an indigenously developed of the canopy, and twin nose wheels to cope with Chinese offshoot of the Russian Su-30 Flanker-C a higher maximum takeoff weight, and it lacks a multirole fighter, which is also operated by the pitot tube on its nose cone. PLAAF and China’s People’s Liberation Army An electronic attack version, tentatively desig- Navy. Unlike the Shenyang J-11B/BS, which is a nated J-16D, is under development, with at least dedicated air combat aircraft based on the earlier one prototype known to have made a number of Sukhoi Su-27, the J-16 is configured for both air- test flights.DN

Defense News: Asia Fighter Review defensenews.com | 17 Asia Fighter Review Asia Fighter Programs sia has emerged as the most are aiding in the development of the dynamic mar- KF-X’s active electronically scanned Aket in the world. Three key array radar, while Japan is explor- generalizations can be applied to the ing fighter collaboration with the region. First, developmental fighter U.K. Moreover, U.S. next-generation programs will take more money and fighter development timelines do not time than planned. Second, despite align with those in Asia. indigenous developmental projects Foreign assistance may shorten and ongoing F-35 acquisition, Japan development timelines, but full- and South Korea are still likely to rate production is unlikely before require new offshore fighters and to the 2030s. These “next-generation” modernize existing aircraft. Third, fighters may be obsolete by the time Southeast Asian fighter recapitaliza- Principal they reach initial operating capabili- tion will take time, as these militar- STEVE GANYARD ty. Japan’s F-3 is the most ambitious ies grapple with budget pressure and fighter project in Asia, potentially squeeze additional flight hours from Avascent worth more than $40 billion in de- legacy aircraft. velopment and production. But it will need to contend with Chinese stealth fighters, Domestic fighter development programs which will have been flying for about 20 years by In response to threats from China and North the time F-3 enters service. Korea, and imperatives to stimulate domestic Despite reports that the F-3 program has been industry, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are each delayed, the Japanese government could include developing indigenous fighters. These are the provisions to accelerate development spending in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries-led F-3, the Korea the middle of the upcoming 2019-2023 Mid-Term Aerospace Industries KF-X and Taiwan’s future Defense Program, given these operational imper- fighter, which will involve the Aerospace Indus- atives. Japan has only spent roughly 3 percent of trial Development Corporation and the National its total defense budget on research and develop- Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology. ment in recent history. A much larger R&D budget All three projects will need assistance from would be needed to simultaneously accommodate more experienced fighter manufacturers to yield F-3 development and other important programs. operationally effective aircraft. This presents potentially attractive partnering opportunities for Western firms to support integration and Japan and South Korea are subsystem development. While these countries have traditionally relied on the United States for increasing collaboration with advanced defense technology, Japan and South non-U.S. firms, driven in part Korea are increasing collaboration with non-U.S. by Washington’s reluctance to firms, driven in part by Washington’s reluctance to transfer sensitive technologies. Saab and Elta transfer sensitive technologies.

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For instance, South Korea is projected to spend 30 percent of its defense R&D budget on KF-X over the next 10 years. The F-3 could be a far larg- er and more complex project. The R&D burdens could be much higher for Japan, driving Japan’s desire to find a cost-sharing partner nation for the program. Taiwan faces the largest challenges in develop- ing the necessary technologies. Its XT-5 trainer program is a redesign of the legacy F-CK-1 indig- enous fighter airframe. XT-5 is supposed to help Taiwanese industry prepare for next-generation Asia Defense Expert Asia Defense Expert fighter development. But retiring engineers, com- AARON LIN ALEXANDER CHANG peting budget priorities and challenges securing U.S. assistance all raise the question of how Tai- Avascent Avascent wan plans to successfully execute the program. These three projects are portrayed domestical- global aircraft market is intense, as Korea Aero- ly as ways to import new advanced technology, space Industries is witnessing with T-50 export support local firms and lay the groundwork for efforts. exports. Both Japan and Taiwan can support their earlier-stage projects by strengthening industrial Demand for gap-filler procurements security protocols to build U.S. confidence in their Because these developmental fighters will take ability to protect sensitive technologies. Exports so long to reach full operating capability, these are a tougher proposition – competition in the countries must purchase off-the-shelf aircraft

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Asia-Pacific Future Fighter Procurement Annual Spending $2,500 USD Millions USD $2,000

Vietnam Projected Fighter Aircraft $1,500 Thailand Projected Multi-Role Fighter

South Korea Projected F-35

Philippines Projected Fighter Aircraft $1,000 Japan Projected F-35

$500

$- 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

and modernize existing fighters to match evolv- Southeast Asian procurements ing threats. South Korea originally requested 60 will take time F-35s but ultimately ordered 40 with an option Southeast Asian countries must grapple with for 20 more at a later date, perhaps looking to tighter budgets and a different threat environment create time to re-evaluate technologies and other than that found in Northeast Asia. These two fac- options. Japan will face a serious fighter numbers tors, along with the timing of fleet retirements and and quality gap before significant numbers of F-3s upgrades, suggest that recapitalization of fighter enter service. Thus, Japan is considering new fleets in Southeast Asia may not be completed aircraft purchases and the modernization of its until the late 2020s. F-15Js in its upcoming five-year acquisition plan. The reasons for this vary from country to coun- Interest in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan in try. The Philippines is prioritizing counterinsur- aircraft like the F-35B and the E/A-18G Growler gency and maritime threats, while the strength highlights the recognition of this interim “fighter of Singapore’s current fighter fleet means it can gap.” Growing fleets of fifth-generation aircraft will delay deciding on a new fighter until 2030. While require efforts to integrate 4/4.5-generation fleets, as aging aircraft like Thailand’s F-5 and Vietnam’s not even the U.S. can afford an all-fifth-generation Su-22 need replacement, regional air forces have fleet. Countries increasingly understand the impor- been willing to delay replacements in favor of tance of electronic attack and control of the electro- upgrades or more creative solutions. For instance, magnetic spectrum. Failing to upgrade and integrate Malaysia has decided to shelve its MiG-29 replace- legacy fighters, as well as not having a plan to ad- ment and pursue a that can dress electronic warfare, would constitute a failure serve training roles. to capitalize on the networked situational awareness These market dynamics have led to greater inter- that fifth-generation aircraft provide. est in versatile light combat/. The

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KF-X R&D in Relation to Total Korean Defense R&D $4,000 50%

45% $3,500

USD Millions USD 40% $3,000 35%

$2,500 30%

$2,000 25%

20% $1,500

15% $1,000 10%

$500 5%

$- 0% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

South Korea KF-X R&D Spending South Korea Other Defense R&D Spending South Korea KF-X Proportion of R&D Spending

Philippines and Thailand already own Korea Aero- exciting region in the world for fighter sales and space Industries T-50s and are expected to order upgrades. While broader generalizations may be more. Vietnam and Indonesia are also expected to made about the region, heterogenous geopolit- buy similar aircraft to replace their older trainer ical and business factors require companies to fleets. tailor their approach to the individual country’s Asia is quickly assuming the mantle as the most market. DN

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