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The Rebirth of a Latent Conflict Between Two Sovereign States: Usa and Iran

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The Rebirth of a Latent Conflict Between Two Sovereign States: Usa and Iran Land Forces Academy Review Vol. XXV, No 2(98), 2020 REMOVAL OF A GENERAL – THE REBIRTH OF A LATENT CONFLICT BETWEEN TWO SOVEREIGN STATES: USA AND IRAN Diana CHIȘ-MANOLACHE “Carol I” National Defense University, Bucharest, Romania [email protected] Ciprian CHIȘ “Carol I” National Defense University, Bucharest, Romania [email protected] ABSTRACT Generally speaking, the relations between different states of the world, but especially between the states that represent world powers or have a certain type of arsenal, are able to influence the stability and the state of calmness from a certain region of the world, but also the notion of peace at the globally level. The 2020 year began with such a situation, in the sense that United States of America and Iran, which have been for a long period in relations not among the most well, have arrived at a moment that could represent, to a very large extent, the starting point of a conflict that will enter in the world history. The elimination of a very important Iranian general by US troops in early January 2020, by a surprise attack amonk Iraqian teritory, markedly aggravated relations between the United States of America and Iran, but also between the great world power and Iraq or other major global players who have harshly criticized the US attack. KEYWORDS: Iranian general, security, agression, drones, ciber attack 1. Introduction state), has aggravated, in a visible way the The two states that have been for a tensions between the United States of long time in the relations, not one of the America (hereinafter referred to as the best, rather tense than peaceful, seem to USA) and Iran, which anyway were not the have reached in 2020, again, at a point that best, but also, in the same time, between the could lead, with a veru high probability, to USA and Iraq. Obviously, the reverberations the development of some atypical conflicts of this attack had an impact on the whole or crises in the Middle East area. world, the positions of the other great The killing of Qasem Soleimani, a powers, but also of other states being very well-known iranian general, result of a among the most diverse. drone attack developed by US troops in This event occurred on the backdrop early January 2020, an attack that took of Tehran’s opportunistic and pragmatic place in Iraq (noting that the attack did not foreign policy, a policy that has not always take place in the territory of the Iranian respected the demands of world alliances or DOI: 10.2478/raft-2020-0011 © 2017. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 License. 85 of stronger nations, no matter what they are, pf this attempt), who conspired this attack especially when it comes to Afghanistan, were: the colonel Dragutin Dimitrijević, the where General Soleimani has played a head of the Serbian Military Information critical role. At the same time, we must also Service, the major Vojislav Tankosić, his point out that, as the head of the Quds right hand and the spy named Rade Force, about which we will discuss later, Malobabić. The major Tankosić was the General Soleimani was also the key one who armed the assassins with bombs architect of Syrian President Bashar and pistols, later training them in order to al-Assad’s brutal attacks on anti-protesters complete the proposed plan. and anti- governmental rebels in the war The political objective of the attempt that took place some years ago (about nine from Sarajevo was the separation of the years ago). southern Slavic provinces from the southern of Austro-Hungary Empire, so as to form 2. Historical Parallelism – Back the Great Yugoslavia. This event (the Bow Over Time attempt from Sarajevo) led directly to the Inevitably, the killing of General outbreak of World War I, given the fact that Soleimani had as a consequence the Austro-Hungary sent an ultimatum to appearance of more fears about the Serbia, which was, however, partially possibility of starting a major armed rejected. This Serbian rejection determined conflict, fears which, thus, we consider to Austro-Hungary to submit a declaration of have been and are still justified. Moreover, war, that was equivalent, at that time, with more many pessimistic voices in the public the outbreak of the first global space have declared in the media (both conflagration. written and televised) that the killing of If we analyze, comparatively, the two General Soleimani could be the beginning events, we could affirm that we are not in a of World War III. Therefore, the position to draw a parallel between them or assassination of Iranian general Qasem to say that these events are similar, Soleimani is compared to the murder of the especially since they occurred over Austro-Hungarian archduke Franz Ferdinand, 100 years and that both had other who took place in Sarajevo in 1914, an motivations underlying their development. event that triggered the First World War. However, it is obvious that both events had Regarding the assassination of and, consequently, could have (in the Archduke Franz Ferdinand on June 28, present described situation - Iran versus 1914, we must remember that, after the USA), the escalations of the relations attack (also known as “the shot that was within international political plan, with very heard around the world”) (The attempt serious consequences for the whole of from Sarajevo), both the Archduke and his humanity. wife, the Duchess Sophie Albina Chotek, In the current context, produced by lost their lives. Following the investigation the killing of the Iranian general Soleimani, of that time, it was found that the killer was we consider that it is more important to a Serbian extremist by the name of Gavrilo make an analysis regarding the possibility Princip, one of the six members of a or chances of a conflict between the USA terrorist network coordinated by Danilo and Iran, at a global level, and also an Ilić, who had behind the Black Hands analysis regarding the military power of the panslavist organization, but also the secret armed forces of the two states. group “Mlada Bosna” or Young Bosnia This analysis must start from the (Danilo Ilić – the biography). The main strategic purpose of Tehran both in the actors from shadow (or the back characters disposal area and worldwide. According to 86 Tehran's policy over the past few years, this Also, Iran has not ballistic missiles that goal is to project its influence and to defend have a sufficiently large range of action to its interests in the Middle East or, at least, threaten USA territory. not to allow strong rivals in the area, such According to statistics, the Persian as Saudi Arabia and Israel, declared USA army is the eighth largest in the world, allies, to achieve the superiority in the which is why the leaders of this state (both region. We must also mention that Tehran political and military leaders) considered has no friends among the major players in the best strategy to fight with a much the region, but according to the diplomatic stronger state (such as the USA) is given by and political relations, developed in recent atypical attacks and by harassment of any years, it is assumed that Iran would have form. quite good relations with Russia and China, Thus, according to a study realized by but does not really have faithful allies the International Institute for Peace among the great powers, which cannot be Research from Stockholm, in 2018 Iran had said about the USA. a budget allocated for defense of $ 13.2 Until the time of the lethal attack led billion, thus representing the 18th largest by USA troops against the Iranian general budget allocated to defense in the world Soleimani, earlier this year, the Iranian (Tian, Fleurant, Kuimova, Wezeman & state, through different ways or in various Wezeman, 2018), ranking, from this point forms, has harassed USA troops installed in of view, very far from the USA (with a the countries from Middle-East region, with budget of $ 649 billion allocated for the the aim of determining them to reduce the defense), as well as under the most activity and even to permanently withdraw significant traditional regional rivals, as: from this region. Thus, being a country Israel (the 17th defense budget in the world quite isolated in terms of alliances, Iran with a defense budget of about $ 16 billion) chose to exploit the vulnerabilities of USA and Saudi Arabia (the 3rd in the world with troops and its allies through interposed, but a defense budget of about 68 billion of also to resort to asymmetrical attacks. dollars). Regarding the power ratio between Also, to highlight the power ratio the two states, we apreciate that it is no between USA and Iran, but also between longer necessary to mention that the Persian Iran and USA allies in the region, it is army is inferior to the American one, important to emphasize that between 2009 having allocated to the defense a rather and 2018, Tehran bought only 3.5 % of what modest budget, which would result in the Saudi Arabia bought to develop its army. impossibility of conducting a direct and Therefore, it is obvious that the USA, opened conflict with the American forces through the budget allocated for defense, is, and, implicitly, with other US allies from if we could say so, in light years away from the vicinity and beyond. Thus, everyone is Iran. of the opinion that, as far as possible, Iran Moreover, under the economic impact will avoid an opened conflict with the USA of imposing of some sanctions on the part and will prefer proxy conflicts, through of the USA, it is obvious the fact that interposed or atypical conflicts.
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