Lack of Modern Technologies Hampers Iran's Defense Industry
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A WAY FORWARD with IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy
A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 Cover photo: Associated Press Photo/Photographer: Mohammad Berno 2 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY CONTENTS List of Abbreviations 4 List of Figures 5 Key Findings 6 How Did We Reach This Point? 7 Roots of the U.S.-Iran Relationship 9 The Results of the Maximum Pressure Policy 13 Any Change in Iranian Behavior? 21 Biden Administration Policy and Implementation Options 31 Conclusion 48 Contributors 49 About The Soufan Center 51 3 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS BPD Barrels Per Day FTO Foreign Terrorist Organization GCC Gulf Cooperation Council IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile IMF International Monetary Fund IMSC International Maritime Security Construct INARA Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act INSTEX Instrument for Supporting Trade Exchanges IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC-QF Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - Qods Force JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action MBD Million Barrels Per Day PMF Popular Mobilization Forces SRE Significant Reduction Exception 4 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Iran Annual GDP Growth and Change in Crude Oil Exports 18 Figure 2: Economic Effects of Maximum Pressure 19 Figure 3: Armed Factions Supported by Iran 25 Figure 4: Comparison of Iran Nuclear Program with JCPOA Limitations 28 5 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. -
Winning the Salvo Competition Rebalancing America’S Air and Missile Defenses
WINNING THE SALVO COMPETITION REBALANCING AMERICA’S AIR AND MISSILE DEFENSES MARK GUNZINGER BRYAN CLARK WINNING THE SALVO COMPETITION REBALANCING AMERICA’S AIR AND MISSILE DEFENSES MARK GUNZINGER BRYAN CLARK 2016 ABOUT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS (CSBA) The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is an independent, nonpartisan policy research institute established to promote innovative thinking and debate about national security strategy and investment options. CSBA’s analysis focuses on key questions related to existing and emerging threats to U.S. national security, and its goal is to enable policymakers to make informed decisions on matters of strategy, security policy, and resource allocation. ©2016 Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. All rights reserved. ABOUT THE AUTHORS Mark Gunzinger is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Mr. Gunzinger has served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Forces Transformation and Resources. A retired Air Force Colonel and Command Pilot, he joined the Office of the Secretary of Defense in 2004. Mark was appointed to the Senior Executive Service and served as Principal Director of the Department’s central staff for the 2005–2006 Quadrennial Defense Review. Following the QDR, he served as Director for Defense Transformation, Force Planning and Resources on the National Security Council staff. Mr. Gunzinger holds an M.S. in National Security Strategy from the National War College, a Master of Airpower Art and Science degree from the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, a Master of Public Administration from Central Michigan University, and a B.S. in chemistry from the United States Air Force Academy. -
Save the Arms Embargo Peter Wallensteen 100 Hesburgh Center P.O
policy brief No. 14, January 2008 Save the Arms Embargo Peter Wallensteen 100 Hesburgh Center P.O. Box 639 One of the first measures contemplated by the United Nations when confronting a new University of Notre Dame security crisis is to institute an arms embargo. Since the end of the Cold War – which Notre Dame, IN 46556-0639 liberated international action from the constraints of major power confrontation – there have been 27 such embargoes. In addition to these UN embargoes, there are also Phone: (574) 631-6970 unilateral measures: The United States imposes its own arms sanctions on some Fax: (574) 631-6973 countries (including Cuba), as does the European Union, sometimes directed at the E-mail: [email protected] same targets, notably Burma/Myanmar and Zimbabwe. Are they used at the right Web: http://kroc.nd.edu moment, and do they have the effects the UN would want? The list of failures is, indeed, long. The most striking is the arms embargo on Somalia, which has been in place since 1992 without any settlement in sight. Is it time to forget about this meas- ure? Or is it time to save the embargo? If it is time to save the embargo, as this brief contends, what lessons can be drawn about the optimal use of embargoes, and under what conditions can they work? Gerard F. Powers The appeal of the arms embargo to the sender is obvious: It means that “we, the Director of Policy Studies initiators,” are not supplying means of warfare and repression to regimes we think should not have them. -
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Volume 15 - Number 2 February – March 2019 £4 TTHISHIS ISSUEISSUE: IIRANIANRANIAN CINEMACINEMA ● IIndianndian camera,camera, IranianIranian heartheart ● TThehe lliteraryiterary aandnd dramaticdramatic rootsroots ofof thethe IranianIranian NewNew WaveWave ● DDystopicystopic TTehranehran inin ‘Film‘Film Farsi’Farsi’ popularpopular ccinemainema ● PParvizarviz SSayyad:ayyad: socio-politicalsocio-political commentatorcommentator dresseddressed asas villagevillage foolfool ● TThehe nnoiroir worldworld ooff MMasudasud KKimiaiimiai ● TThehe rresurgenceesurgence ofof IranianIranian ‘Sacred‘Sacred Defence’Defence’ CinemaCinema ● AAsgharsghar Farhadi’sFarhadi’s ccinemainema ● NNewew diasporicdiasporic visionsvisions ofof IranIran ● PPLUSLUS RReviewseviews andand eventsevents inin LondonLondon Volume 15 - Number 2 February – March 2019 £4 TTHISHIS IISSUESSUE: IIRANIANRANIAN CCINEMAINEMA ● IIndianndian ccamera,amera, IIranianranian heartheart ● TThehe lliteraryiterary aandnd ddramaticramatic rootsroots ooff thethe IIranianranian NNewew WWaveave ● DDystopicystopic TTehranehran iinn ‘Film-Farsi’‘Film-Farsi’ ppopularopular ccinemainema ● PParvizarviz SSayyad:ayyad: ssocio-politicalocio-political commentatorcommentator dresseddressed aass vvillageillage ffoolool ● TThehe nnoiroir wworldorld ooff MMasudasud KKimiaiimiai ● TThehe rresurgenceesurgence ooff IIranianranian ‘Sacred‘Sacred DDefence’efence’ CinemaCinema ● AAsgharsghar FFarhadi’sarhadi’s ccinemainema ● NNewew ddiasporiciasporic visionsvisions ooff IIranran ● PPLUSLUS RReviewseviews aandnd eeventsvents -
Design Characteristics of Iran's Ballistic and Cruise Missiles
Design Characteristics of Iran’s Ballistic and Cruise Missiles Last update: January 2013 Missile Nato or Type/ Length Diameter Payload Range (km) Accuracy ‐ Propellant Guidance Other Name System (m) (m) (kg)/warhead CEP (m) /Stages Artillery* Hasib/Fajr‐11* Rocket artillery (O) 0.83 0.107 6; HE 8.5 ‐ Solid Spin stabilized Falaq‐12* Rocket artillery (O) 1.29 0.244 50; HE 10 Solid Spin stabilized Falaq‐23* Rocket artillery (O) 1.82 0.333 120; HE 11 Solid Spin stabilized Arash‐14* Rocket artillery (O) 2.8 0.122 18.3; HE 21.5 Solid Spin stabilized Arash‐25* Rocket artillery (O) 3.2 0.122 18.3; HE 30 Solid Spin stabilized Arash‐36* Rocket artillery (O) 2 0.122 18.3; HE 18 Solid Spin stabilized Shahin‐17* Rocket artillery (O) 2.9 0.33 190; HE 13 Solid Spin stabilized Shahin‐28* Rocket artillery (O) 3.9 0.33 190; HE 20 Solid Spin stabilized Oghab9* Rocket artillery (O) 4.82 0.233 70; HE 40 Solid Spin stabilized Fajr‐310* Rocket artillery (O) 5.2 0.24 45; HE 45 Solid Spin stabilized Fajr‐511* Rocket artillery (O) 6.6 0.33 90; HE 75 Solid Spin stabilized Falaq‐112* Rocket artillery (O) 1.38 0.24 50; HE 10 Solid Spin stabilized Falaq‐213* Rocket artillery (O) 1.8 0.333 60; HE 11 Solid Spin stabilized Nazeat‐614* Rocket artillery (O) 6.3 0.355 150; HE 100 Solid Spin stabilized Nazeat15* Rocket artillery (O) 5.9 0.355 150; HE 120 Solid Spin stabilized Zelzal‐116* Iran‐130 Rocket artillery (O) 8.3 0.61 500‐600; HE 100‐125 Solid Spin stabilized Zelzal‐1A17* Mushak‐120 Rocket artillery (O) 8.3 0.61 500‐600; HE 160 Solid Spin stabilized Nazeat‐1018* Mushak‐160 Rocket artillery (O) 8.3 0.45 250; HE 150 Solid Spin stabilized Related content is available on the website for the Nuclear Threat Initiative, www.nti.org. -
Security Council Press Statement on the Central African Republic
Code: SC/PR 1/1 Committee: Security Council Topic: The crisis in the Central African Republic Security Council Press Statement on the Central African Republic The members of the Security Council support the results of the presidential elections of 27th December 2020 in the Central African Republic and the officially elected president. They express their concern over the deteriorating military and political situation and the threat of government overthrow. Further, they confirm the importance of restoring state power throughout the entire territory of the country. The members of the Security Council express their deepest concern about the new outbreak of the Ebola disease in the Central African Republic. They urge the international community to provide vaccines and medical equipment to the people of CAR to combat the disease. The Security Council strongly opposes the violence and crimes committed by certain rebellious groups with the support of former President François Bozizé trying to undermine the electoral process, and condemns the violations of the Political Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation, signed by the Government of the Central African Republic and armed groups in Bangui on 6th February 2019. The Security Council urges all signatory parties to fully honour their commitments and join the path of dialogue and peace. The Security Council recalls that individuals or entities who are threatening the stabilization of the country may be targeted under a Security Council sanctions regime. Violence fueled by disinformation campaigns is also strongly condemned. The Security Council stresses the urgent need to end impunity in the CAR and to let justice prevail over perpetrators of violations of international humanitarian law and of violations and abuses of human rights. -
Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: Varying Levels of Lnterdiction
NPS ARCHIVE 1997.12 ESQUIVEL, J. NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS IRAN AND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ: VARYING LEVELS OF LNTERDICTION by James M. Esquivel December, 1997 Co-Advisors: Terry D. Johnson Ahmad Ghoreishi Thesis Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited E6895 KNOX LIBRARY DUDLEY SCHOOL *VAL POSTGRADUATE .dONTEREY CA 93943-5101 REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1 204, Arlington, VA 22202^302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-01 88) Washington DC 20503 AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) REPORT DATE REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 1997 Master's Thesis IRAN AND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ: VARYING LEVELS OF INTERDICTION 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Esquivel, James M. 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION Monterey CA 93943-5000 REPORT NUMBER SPONSOPJNG/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 1 . SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 1 1 . SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. -
Annual Report 2018
2018Annual Report Annual Report July 1, 2017–June 30, 2018 Council on Foreign Relations 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065 tel 212.434.9400 1777 F Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006 tel 202.509.8400 www.cfr.org [email protected] OFFICERS DIRECTORS David M. Rubenstein Term Expiring 2019 Term Expiring 2022 Chairman David G. Bradley Sylvia Mathews Burwell Blair Effron Blair Effron Ash Carter Vice Chairman Susan Hockfield James P. Gorman Jami Miscik Donna J. Hrinak Laurene Powell Jobs Vice Chairman James G. Stavridis David M. Rubenstein Richard N. Haass Vin Weber Margaret G. Warner President Daniel H. Yergin Fareed Zakaria Keith Olson Term Expiring 2020 Term Expiring 2023 Executive Vice President, John P. Abizaid Kenneth I. Chenault Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer Mary McInnis Boies Laurence D. Fink James M. Lindsay Timothy F. Geithner Stephen C. Freidheim Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, Stephen J. Hadley Margaret (Peggy) Hamburg and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair James Manyika Charles Phillips Jami Miscik Cecilia Elena Rouse Nancy D. Bodurtha Richard L. Plepler Frances Fragos Townsend Vice President, Meetings and Membership Term Expiring 2021 Irina A. Faskianos Vice President, National Program Tony Coles Richard N. Haass, ex officio and Outreach David M. Cote Steven A. Denning Suzanne E. Helm William H. McRaven Vice President, Philanthropy and Janet A. Napolitano Corporate Relations Eduardo J. Padrón Jan Mowder Hughes John Paulson Vice President, Human Resources and Administration Caroline Netchvolodoff OFFICERS AND DIRECTORS, Vice President, Education EMERITUS & HONORARY Shannon K. O’Neil Madeleine K. Albright Maurice R. Greenberg Vice President and Deputy Director of Studies Director Emerita Honorary Vice Chairman Lisa Shields Martin S. -
Arms Embargoes Chapter
Sanctions Sans Commitment: An Assessment of UN Arms Embargoes By David Cortright, George A. Lopez, with Linda Gerber An impeccable logic makes arms embargoes a potentially powerful instrument in the array of United Nations (UN) peace- and security-building mechanisms. By denying aggressors and human rights abusers the implements of war and repression, arms embargoes contribute directly to preventing and reducing the level of armed conflict.1 There could hardly be a more appropriate tool for international peacemaking. Moreover, in constricting only selected weapons and military-related goods and services, and in denying these to ruling elites, their armies, and other violent combatants, arms embargoes constitute the quintessential example of a smart sanction. Not only do arms embargoes avoid doing harm to vulnerable and innocent civilian populations; the better the embargoes’ enforcement, the more innocent lives are likely to be saved. This powerful logic may explain why arms embargoes are the most frequently employed form of economic sanction. Since 1990, the UN Security Council has imposed mandatory arms embargoes in twelve of its fourteen sanctions cases. See the table “Selected Cases of Arms Embargoes, 1990-2001” for a complete listing of Security Council arms embargoes in the past decade. Only in the cases of Cambodia and Sudan did the Security Council choose not to apply a restriction on arms imports. In most cases arms embargoes were part of a broader package of sanctions measures. In some cases (Angola, Rwanda since 1995, and Sierra Leone since 1998) arms embargoes have been targeted against rebel movements fighting against an established government. In all other cases arms embargoes were applied against governments deemed to be violating human rights and posing a threat to international peace. -
Merit International
Table of Contents By Brand (Click logo to jump to page) AFV-AC14401 AFV-AC32001 1/144 STICKER FOR SIMULATING SENSORS 1/32 Have Glass II for AC12105 AFV-AC32005 AFV-AC35001 1/32 F117A for TP03219 1/35 M41 GUN SHIELD COVER AFV-AC35002 AFV-AC35003 1/35 CLEARANCE INDICATOR POLES ZIMMERIT COATING APPLICATOR AFV-AC35004 AFV-AC35005 1/35 TRANSPARENT PERISCOPE FOR TIGER I LATE VERSION 1/35 TRANSPARENT PERISCOPE FOR SD.KFZ.251 SERIES AFV-AC35006 AFV-AC35008 1/35 GERMAN OPTICAL EQUIPMENT SET 1/35 MANTLET COVER FOR CENTURION (TYPE A) AFV-AC35015 AFV-AC35021 STICKER FOR SIMULATING ANTI REFLECTION COATING 1/35 CAMOUFLAGE NET - SNOW GRAY LENS(LEOPARD) AFV-AC35201 AFV-AC35206 PC. PANEL FOR SIMULATING MODERN VEHICLE (AIRCRAFT) ANTI-SLIP COATING STICKERS FOR VEHICLE TANK AFV-AF02007 AFV-AF02008 PZKPFW VI AUSF B TIGER II LEOPARD II A5 AFV-AF02009 AFV-AF02010 M1A2 ABRAMS TYPE 90 MBT AFV-AF10001 AFV-AF12101 1/100 MIG-25 1/12 Elementary school desk w/chairs AFV-AF12102 AFV-AF35015 1/12 High school single seat desks w/chairs 1/35 M18 Hellcat AFV-AF35016 AFV-AF35019 1/35 NATO YPR-765 AIFV(25m TURRET) 1/35 M3 STUART T16 TRACK (WORKABLE) AFV-AF35020 AFV-AF35021 1/35 M5/M8 LIGHT TANK T36E6 TRK(WORKABL) 1/35 ANTI-TANK WEAPONS M40A1 & TOW A1 AFV-AF35022 AFV-AF35026 1/35 LVTP-5 US MARINES VIETNAM 1/35 M4/M3 T51 TRACK(WORKABLE) AFV-AF35036 AFV-AF35041 1/35 M26/M46 T80E1 TRACK 1/35 M41 WALKER BULLDOG LT TANK AFV-AF35044 AFV-AF35047 1/35 SDKFZ 11 TRACK (WORKABLE) 1/35 SDKFZ 11 LATE VERSION - WOOD CAB AFV-AF35050 AFV-AF35052 1/35(terminated) FH18 105MM CANNON 1/35 M41 -
Malley As Iran Envoy: Hawks and Progressives Spar Over Possible Nomination
Malley as Iran Envoy: Hawks and Progressives Spar over Possible Nomination Reports that Robert Malley, lead Iran negotiator under Obama, is being considered for envoy position sparks outrage from conservatives By Ali Harb Region: USA Global Research, January 28, 2021 Theme: Intelligence Middle East Eye 26 January 2021 All Global Research articles including the E-Book can be read in 27 languages by activating the “Translate Website” drop down menu on the top banner of our home page (Desktop version). *** Despite deep divisions plaguing American politics, the Republican pushback against President Joe Biden’s cabinet nominees has been relatively quiet. Days into the new administration, the Senate confirmed Biden’s secretaries of state, treasury and defence, as well as intelligence chief with bipartisan support as other nominees undergo routine hearings. A fight may be looming, however, over the potential nominationRobert of Malley, an outspoken proponent of diplomacy, as the administration’s envoy for Iran. Malley, an Obama-era diplomat, leads the International Crisis Group think tank, which focuses on preventing and resolving violent conflicts. His possible appointment has faced an early backlash from conservatives and earned the praise of advocates of the Iran nuclear deal. Sina Toossi, a senior research analyst at the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), said a well-funded and coordinated “network” of anti-Iran hawks that has been smearing advocates of diplomacy with Tehran has “drawn the line” on Malley. “Rob Malley was the Obama administration’s chief nuclear negotiator – someone has experience negotiating with the Iranians, who is an actual diplomat,” Toossi told MEE. “These attacks are part of a broader effort against diplomacy with Iran, against reversing Trump’s disastrous approach towards Iran.” Backlash The chatter, opposition and praise for Malley started last week when Jewish Insider reported that he was being considered for the position of special envoy for Iran. -
NSIAD-98-176 China B-279891
United States General Accounting Office Report to the Chairman, Joint Economic GAO Committee, U.S. Senate June 1998 CHINA Military Imports From the United States and the European Union Since the 1989 Embargoes GAO/NSIAD-98-176 United States General Accounting Office GAO Washington, D.C. 20548 National Security and International Affairs Division B-279891 June 16, 1998 The Honorable James Saxton Chairman, Joint Economic Committee United States Senate Dear Mr. Chairman: In June 1989, the United States and the members of the European Union 1 embargoed the sale of military items to China to protest China’s massacre of demonstrators in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square. You have expressed concern regarding continued Chinese access to foreign technology over the past decade, despite these embargoes. As requested, we identified (1) the terms of the EU embargo and the extent of EU military sales to China since 1989, (2) the terms of the U.S. embargo and the extent of U.S. military sales to China since 1989, and (3) the potential role that such EU and U.S. sales could play in addressing China’s defense needs. In conducting this review, we focused on military items—items that would be included on the U.S. Munitions List. This list includes both lethal items (such as missiles) and nonlethal items (such as military radars) that cannot be exported without a license.2 Because the data in this report was developed from unclassified sources, its completeness and accuracy may be subject to some uncertainty. The context for China’s foreign military imports during the 1990s lies in Background China’s recent military modernization efforts.3 Until the mid-1980s, China’s military doctrine focused on defeating technologically superior invading forces by trading territory for time and employing China’s vast reserves of manpower.