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Beyond Nuclear Ambiguity. the Iranian Nuclear Crisis and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

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Beyond Nuclear Ambiguity. the Iranian Nuclear Crisis and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action PREMIO CESARE ALFIERI CUM LAUDE – 6 – PREMIO CESARE ALFIERI CUM LAUDE Commissione giudicatrice Anno 2018 Elena Dundovich (Presidente, area storica) Emidio Diodato (area politologica) Giorgia Giovannetti (area economica) Laura Magi (area giuridica) Gabriella Paolucci (area sociologica) Michele Gerli Beyond Nuclear Ambiguity The Iranian Nuclear Crisis and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action FIRENZE UNIVERSITY PRESS 2019 Beyond Nuclear Ambiguity : the Iranian Nuclear Crisis and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action / Michele Gerli. – Firenze : Firenze University Press, 2019. (Premio Cesare Alfieri Cum Laude ; 6) http://digital.casalini.it/9788864538655 ISBN 978-88-6453-864-8 (print) ISBN 978-88-6453-865-5 (online PDF) ISBN 978-88-6453-866-2 (online EPUB) Progetto grafico di Alberto Pizarro Fernández, Pagina Maestra Immagine di copertina: © M-sur | Dreamstime.com Peer Review Process All publications are submitted to an external refereeing process under the responsibility of the FUP Editorial Board and the Scientific Committees of the individual series. The works published in the FUP catalogue are evaluated and approved by the Editorial Board of the publishing house. For a more detailed description of the refereeing process we refer to the official documents published on the website and in the online catalogue (www.fupress.com). Firenze University Press Editorial Board M. Garzaniti (Editor-in-Chief), M. Boddi, A. Bucelli, R. Casalbuoni, A. Dolfi, R. Ferrise, M.C. Grisolia, P. Guarnieri, R. Lanfredini, P. Lo Nostro, G. Mari, A. Mariani, P.M. Mariano, S. Marinai, R. Minuti, P. Nanni, G. Nigro, A. Perulli. The on-line digital edition is published in Open Access on www.fupress.com. The present work is released under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC BY 4.0: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode). This license allows you to share any part of the work by any means and format, modify it for any purpose, including commercial, as long as appropriate credit is given to the author, any changes made to the work are indicated and a URL link is provided to the license. © 2019 Firenze University Press Published by Firenze University Press Firenze University Press Università degli Studi di Firenze via Cittadella, 7, 50144 Firenze, Italy www.fupress.com This book is printed on acid-free paper Printed in Italy SOMMARIO PRESENTAZIONE VII Giusto Puccini INTRODUCTION XI LIST OF ACRONYMS XV PART I INTRODUCTION TO THE NUCLEAR CRISIS CHAPTER 1 THE HISTORY OF THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM 3 1. The Origins of Nuclear Program under the Shah (1957-1974) 3 2. The Shah’s Ambiguous Shift (1974-1978) 8 3. The Islamic Revolution and the Lost Decade (1979-1989) 12 4. The Quiet before the Storm (1989-2002) 17 CHAPTER 2 THE SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND OF NUCLEAR ENERGY 23 1. Basic Concepts 23 2. The Nuclear Fuel Cycle 26 CHAPTER 3 THE NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME 31 1. The Legal Framework 33 PART II THE NUCLEAR CRISIS CHAPTER 4 THE FIRST NUCLEAR CRISIS (2002-2005) 43 1. The Breakout of the Nuclear Crisis 43 2. Disclosure 49 3. The Intervention of the EU3 and the Teheran Declaration 55 4. The Brussels Agreement 62 Michele Gerli, Beyond Nuclear Ambiguity. The Iranian Nuclear Crisis and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, ISBN (online PDF) 978-88-6453-865-5, © 2019 FUP, CC BY 4.0 International, published by Firenze University Press VI THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR CRISIS 5. From Brussels to Paris 67 6. The Collapse of the Paris Agreement 73 CHAPTER 5 THE SECOND NUCLEAR CRISIS (2005-2008) 81 1. Toward the UN Security Council 81 2. Resolution 1696 (2006) 88 3. Resolution 1737 (2006) 94 4. Resolution 1747 (2007) 96 5. The Work Plan 99 6. The US National Intelligence Estimate 102 7. Resolution 1803 (2008) 104 8. The 2008 Proposal 108 9. Resolution 1835 (2008) 112 CHAPTER 6 NUCLEAR IMPASSE (2009-2013) 113 1. The Openings of Obama and the Iranian Elections of June 2009 113 2. The Fuel Swap Proposal 116 3. The Joint Teheran Declaration 121 4. Resolution 1929 (2010) 125 5. Stuxnet and the Assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists 127 6. The Russian Step-by-Step Plan 130 7. Diplomatic Impasse 133 CHAPTER 7 THE JOINT COMPREHENSIVE PLAN OF ACTION (2013-2015) 141 1. The Wind of Change 141 2. The Joint Plan of Action 144 3. The First Extension of the JPOA 149 4. The Second Extension of the JPOA 153 5. Toward the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action 155 6. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action 158 7. The Nuclear Related Measures 160 8. Sanctions 162 9. The Implementation Plan 163 10. The Dispute Resolution Mechanism 164 11. Assessment of the JCPOA 165 CONCLUSION 169 REFERENCES 177 DOCUMENTS AND REPORTS 197 PRESENTAZIONE Giusto Puccini Nel 2010, la allora Facoltà di Scienze Politiche “Cesare Alfieri” dell’Università degli studi di Firenze – oggi omonima Scuola – decise di istituire un Premio per Tesi di Laurea Magistrale intitolato a Guido Gal- li, funzionario dell’ONU rimasto vittima del terremoto di Haiti del 12 gennaio 2010, mentre era impegnato in una riunione di lavoro all’Hotel Christopher, quartier generale dell’ONU, insieme ad altri suoi colleghi. Con l’istituzione di questo premio di laurea, la Facoltà intendeva onorare la memoria di questo suo ex studente nel modo più consono ai propri fini istituzionali e, al tempo stesso, allo spirito del tutto partico- lare che ha caratterizzato la vita e l’attività professionale di Guido Galli. A tale ultimo proposito, merita innanzitutto ricordare che Guido Gal- li, nato a Firenze il 5 settembre 1967, si è iscritto alla “Cesare Alfieri” nel 1985, dopo aver conseguito il diploma di maturità classica, sempre a Firenze, presso il Liceo Dante. Fin dall’inizio degli studi superiori, egli ha manifestato sia una note- vole propensione all’impegno personale nella vita universitaria e nella politica studentesca, sia uno spiccato interesse per le tematiche inerenti alle relazioni internazionali ed alle vicende umane e sociali dei popoli. Così, da un lato egli figura fra gli animatori della mobilitazione stu- dentesca del 1990 (il movimento c.d. della ‘Pantera’), e viene poi anche eletto come rappresentante degli studenti nel Consiglio di Facoltà. Da un altro lato, egli opta per l’indirizzo politico-internazionale dell’allora Corso di laurea quadriennale in Scienze Politiche, per poi laurearsi brillantemente con il massimo dei voti e lode con una tesi su Integralismo e politica di potenza. La guerra Iran-Iraq e i suoi effetti sul regime di Baghdad, relatrice la professoressa Marta Petricioli. Terminati gli studi universitari ed il servizio civile – durante il quale ha lavorato nel campo dei servizi sociali presso il comune di Terric- ciola, organizzando attività per i bambini – Guido Galli ha iniziato ad operare in vari paesi: nel 1992 in Messico, presso un ostello gestito da quaccheri; nel 1993, sempre in Messico, come osservatore elettorale; nel 1994 in Guatemala, dove ebbe il primo incarico come consulente da parte di una ONG, e dove successivamente ritornò per iniziare il Michele Gerli, Beyond Nuclear Ambiguity. The Iranian Nuclear Crisis and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, ISBN (online PDF) 978-88-6453-865-5, © 2019 FUP, CC BY 4.0 International, published by Firenze University Press VIII THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR CRISIS suo lavoro per le Nazioni Unite, presso l’Ufficio per i rapporti legis- lativi e gli affari politici della Missione ONU (MINUGUA) in via di insediamento nel paese. Nel 2000 venne trasferito in Afghanistan, dove operò prima come Protection Officer per l’Ufficio di Coordinamento degli aiuti umanitari (OCHA, Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs), e poi come Political Affairs Officer presso la Missione di assistenza dell’ONU (UNAM) insediata a Kabul. Dopodiché, diresse a Stoccolma un programma per la costruzione della democrazia presso l’Istituto internazionale per la democrazia e l’assistenza elettorale (IDEA), assunse poi il ruolo di Desk Officer presso 1’OCHA a Ginevra e approdò infine ai quartieri generali di New York. Guido Galli, però, desiderava ‘lavorare sul campo’, operando concre- tamente «per il rispetto dei diritti umani» (come ha ricordato sua madre) e per «proteggere chi subisce abusi o violenze da gruppi armati» (come disse lui stesso, parlando della sua missione in Afghanistan): così, nel 2007 colse l’opportunità di assumere l’incarico di Political Affairs Officer ad Haiti, dove purtroppo lo colse il terremoto. Nel corso di un’intervista, parlando del suo lavoro nelle missioni umanitarie e di pace, Guido Galli ebbe anche modo di affermare che gli sembrava «tutto molto bello: è un po’ come rifare l’Università, ma questa volta è l’Università della vita». Chi tra i colleghi e gli ex studen- ti della Facoltà lo ha conosciuto meglio, pensa sia una frase che gli ap- partenga totalmente. Ebbene, la Facoltà di Scienze Politiche “Cesare Alfieri”, istituendo il Premio Guido Galli, si è a suo tempo impegnata a mantenerne vivo il ricordo tra gli studenti, proprio perché si tratta di uno di loro, un ex stu- dente la cui figura umana e professionale costituisce un’espressione par- ticolarmente significativa dei valori caratterizzanti il peculiare progetto formativo sotteso ai vari Corsi di laurea triennale e magistrale afferenti allora alla Facoltà, ed oggi all’omonima Scuola. Il Premio viene appunto assegnato annualmente ad una tesi di laurea, discussa a conclusione di uno dei Corsi di laurea coordinati dalla Scuo- la di Scienze Politiche “Cesare Alfieri”, che abbia trattato, da un punto di vista internazionalistico, un tema di carattere economico, giuridico, politologico, sociologico o storico. Possono presentare i loro lavori, entro una data di volta in volta sta- bilita, tutti coloro che hanno conseguito la laurea nel corso del prece- dente anno solare. Una Commissione nominata dal Consiglio della Scuola, della quale fanno parte studiosi di ciascuna delle cinque anime disciplinari che caratterizzano la Scuola medesima, valuta le tesi presentate e assegna il premio, che consiste nella pubblicazione della tesi presso la Firenze Uni- versity Press (FUP).
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