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Nuclear Proliferation Policy Debate a Discussion of Nuclear Technology’S Impact on Foreign Policy

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Nuclear Proliferation Policy Debate a Discussion of Nuclear Technology’S Impact on Foreign Policy WORCESTER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE Nuclear Proliferation Policy Debate A Discussion of Nuclear Technology’s Impact on Foreign Policy Stephen Kressaty, Justin Torres, Mathew Skerritt 3/2/2012 1 Table of Contents Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 1 Nuclear Proliferation in Iran ........................................................................................................................ 6 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 7 Understanding Present Day Iran ............................................................................................................. 13 The Iranian People .................................................................................................................................. 19 Sponsored Terrorism............................................................................................................................... 25 Beyond Hezbollah ................................................................................................................................... 29 An Illicit Program ..................................................................................................................................... 34 A Possible Arms Race ............................................................................................................................. 38 Iran: An Influential Nation ....................................................................................................................... 43 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 48 Nuclear Proliferation in India and Pakistan............................................................................................... 50 India and Pakistan Background ............................................................................................................... 51 Current Policy in India and Pakistan ....................................................................................................... 59 Nuclear Proliferation in North Korea ......................................................................................................... 68 North Korea Background ......................................................................................................................... 69 North Korean Policy ................................................................................................................................ 77 History of the United States’, Russia’s, and China’s Nuclear Program ..................................................... 86 United States Background ....................................................................................................................... 87 Russia’s Background .............................................................................................................................. 100 China’s Background ............................................................................................................................... 109 United States, Russia, and China’s Policy .............................................................................................. 116 Policy Recommendation ......................................................................................................................... 133 Bibliography.............................................................................................................................................. 147 2 Overview: The Nuclear Proliferation Policy Debate In today‘s world, there are many growing concerns regarding the vast dangers of weapons of mass destruction. This report focuses, in particular, on the proliferation of nuclear weapons and its technology, dealing specifically with the impact this has on the social policies of several countries. Controlling the spread of nuclear technology is directly connected to the spread of nuclear weapons and has been an ongoing struggle since the capability was developed. Throughout this project, public policies, along with various past, present, and suspected inevitable future events pertaining to this topic are studied and analyzed to gain a deeper understanding of key countries‘ positions. From these determined positions, predictions and policy recommendations are crafted. Phase I This project has three phases to it. The first phase entails gaining a comprehensive perspective on each country that is to be considered. The countries selected to be studied were chosen due to the key nature they have as an influential world power in the nuclear world. The coverage is divided as follows: Stephen Kressaty undertakes studying Iran and its perceived illicit arms program, Justin Torres looks into the United States‘ current issues with Russia and the significant role that China plays around the world, and Mathew Skerritt delves into North Korea and India‘s current battles with Pakistan. To make accurate analyses, it is important for the team members to gain a thorough understanding of their countries‘ nuclear history. Sources used include websites, books, and various other sources of media. After the background research is done, the second phase will begin. 3 Phase II The second phase of this project entails the bulk of the workload, covering all the research needed to educate ourselves on the countries that were selected. Various sources, mostly current news articles due to the popularity of this issue, are used to draft briefing papers on the countries. These policy papers provide the countries‘ current stance toward nuclear weapons and nuclear power and their goals for the future of their nuclear program. More specifically, topics covered include: 1) A discussion of the United States‘ and Russia‘s nuclear programs. This involves issues such as out of date weapons, large stockpiles of weapons, the possibility of new weapons being manufactured, UN and IAEA cooperation with the NPT, START and other reduction measures taken, and setting the standard as world powers for a move towards nuclear disarmament. 2) A discussion of North Korea‘s nuclear program. This involves the debate about its impact on surrounding countries and other countries around the world (United States, Russia, Japan, China, S.Korea, etc.), Kim Jong Il‘s death and Kim Jong Un‘s takeover, and the difficulty of negotiations with North Korean leaders due to its isolation from the world. 3) A discussion of Iran‘s nuclear program. This includes topics such as its impact on surrounding countries and other countries around the world (United States, Russia, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, European countries, Turkey, etc.), Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his radical leadership, Iran‘s stability as a state, and the terrorist network that is enabled by Iran‘s leaders. 4 4) A discussion of India, Pakistan, and their stand-off. This includes topics such as its impact on the surrounding countries and countries around the world, how China plays a role in the stand-off, terrorist presence in Pakistan, and the battle of Kashmir. After these position papers are drafted, a transition to Phase III occurs. Phase III The third and final phase of this project is the actual resulting product. Using the well- researched position papers that were drafted, a policy recommendation is written suggesting a course of action to be taken. The recommendation is based on knowledge gained from researching past, present, and future actions and policies implemented by the governments of the countries studied. The aim of the proposal is to promote ethical control of the spread of nuclear weapons and the technology that enables it. The final recommendation is a document intended for the United States Department of State and is from an American citizen‘s point of view. It includes actions and stances endorsed by the United States and enforced by the IAEA, United Nations Security Council, and other international nuclear watchdogs. Topics covered include various recommendations such as: The suspected direction of countries‘ nuclear program. Any recommended changes to the current state of any nuclear programs. Any precautions that should be taken to secure a nuclear program‘s weapons and technology. Any efforts to secure the nuclear weapons programs of possible nuclear-capable states. 5 To demonstrate full understanding of our recommendations, suspected reactions of the various countries are also included in the final report. This will keep our proposal in line with realistic circumstances and prevent any impractical recommendations. 6 Nuclear Proliferation in Iran A Report on Radical Ideologies, Sponsored Terrorism, and Tehran’s Drive for Nuclear Weapons Stephen Kressaty 7 Introduction Throughout the past decade, global concerns surrounding Iran‘s nuclear program have grown to unprecedented levels. The Iranian drive to acquire nuclear capabilities has worried the governments of many countries who fear that this seemingly uncontrollable technology may fall into the wrong hands. While some countries are worried about the regional ―superpower‖ status that Iran may gain along with the bomb, others (Israel in particular) could face a more serious threat of mass destruction. Preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear state may be extremely difficult given the
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