Attacks Against the Iranian Nuclear Program
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Guía COL MUN 2021
CNCMUN IV Background Guide Council of Leaders COL Presidents: Gabriel Hernández and Isabella Ospina Gabriela Conde and Tomás Ortiz Executive editors Gabriel Hernández Isabella Ospina Sub-editor Sub-editor Table of contents I. Letter from the chair II. Introduction to the committee III. First agenda: Middle East and Israel Conflict A. Introduction B. History C. Current Situation i. Right of return ii. Security and Terrorism D. Different Perspectives IV Second agenda: Iran and USA crisis A. Introduction B. History i. Precedents of the Iran-U.S.A. relation ii. Incidents iii. Nuclear weapons development C. Current Situation D. Different Perspectives V. Information of Mandatory Revision VI. QARMA’S (Questions a Resolution Must Answer) VII. Bibliography I. Letter from the chair Estimated delegates, We are Gabriel Hernández and Isabella Ospina, and as presidents of the committee of Council of Leaders, we’d like to extend to you a warm welcome to the 4th edition of CNCMUN. This time, the topics to be discussed are related to the Middle East conflict with other countries such as Israel and the United States - Iran crisis. We are appreciative to receive delegates that are open to an active participation and take this as learning and enriching experience. We are looking forward to achieve this committee's goals and make this a joyful experience for everyone. We are expecting to see you soon. II. Introduction to the committee Council of leaders is an experimental committee in the Model of United Nations that consists in setting out a scene in which world leaders with greater significance discuss and debate about current controversial and important issues. -
Iran's Foreign Policy Decision Making
Iran’s Foreign Policy Decision Making Visions and Divisions: Prospects for a Reorientation in Iran’s Foreign Policy • Normalizers: Integration of Iran into the International Community • Principalists: No Change in Iran’s International Posture Why we cannot make a conclusive statement on the interplay of these groups? Iran is not like any other states in terms of political system. Higher Level Greater Measure of Power & Control Normal political Struggle with systems have a finding a proper hierarchical Islamofascism definition for Democratic the Iranian Theocracy structures, similar political system to this pyramid Small Amount of Power & Control Negotiated Political Order • President •State • Government & Bureaucracy • Revolutionary Guards •Parastatals • Basij • Foundations (Bonyads) •Supreme • Rahbar’s Office Leader • Quds Force Negotiated Political Order Parastatals State • Suprem e Leader • Iran’s Foreign Policy The Position of the Various Groups Ideological Normalizers Pragmatic Principalists Normalizers Tentative normalizers What Drives Iran’s Regional Policies Five Core Factors Imperial Shiite Legacy Islam Anti Imperialis m Paranoia & Domestic Regime Politics Security Policy of Exporting Revolution What did Khomeini mean by revolutionary export? Khomeini was • Protecting Shiites Iranian equivalent of • Gaining Hegemony in Trotsky the Middle East Anti-Trotsky Camp Formed Idealist in the regime committed to exporting the Pragmatists who said revolution it’s really too much & too soon How did they want to export the revolution and to dominate over the middle east? We don’t fight ourselves The Center for Borderless plan was Security Doctrinal simple Analysis We use proxies The ideal end run and their image of the ideal expansion of the revolution and hegemony Engaging the Masses in the ME Shiite Crescent Building Ideological belt of sympathetic Expanding Shiite governments Regional & political factions in Iraq, Syria, Role&Power Lebanon, and Gulf States It happened because of a number of fortuitous breaks Israel Invasion of Lebanon 1982 Arab U.S. -
Iran: a True Security Dilemma?
1 Iran: A True Security Dilemma? The thesis of this paper is that there is a substantial basis to believe the acquisition of nuclear weapons by the Islamic Republic of Iran need not derail U.S. efforts to obtain its basic security objectives in the Middle East (e.g. the prevention of terrorism, secure corridors for the transportation of oil to global markets and progress on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict). There is no known evidence of a state giving a nuclear capability to a nonstate actor to support its national security. The paper notes that U.S. intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan precipitated Iranian reactions, including development of a nuclear weapons program, which pose challenges for international security. These developments enhance the strength of the Iranian regime against certain threats like the use of conventional military power. Using theories developed by proponents of the school of realism in international relations policy, the paper proceeds to show that the U.S. can still pursue its basic security goals in the region successfully. While nuclear weapons threatening U.S. interests are daunting, counter measures against them and steps to prevent proliferation are not certain to succeed. Parties involved in a conflict normally do not abandon working to secure their interests in tactical or low level actions simply because they face opposition (i.e.Taliban has continued its insurgency in Afghanistan despite U.S. state building efforts.). Accordingly, the U.S. needs to pursue balanced policy objectives in a disciplined manner while trying to mitigate the perceived risks from nuclear proliferation. This more balanced approach should be taken with Islamic Republic of Iran. -
Iran's Gray Zone Strategy
Iran’s Gray Zone Strategy Cornerstone of its Asymmetric Way of War By Michael Eisenstadt* ince the creation of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Iran has distinguished itself (along with Russia and China) as one of the world’s foremost “gray zone” actors.1 For nearly four decades, however, the United States has struggled to respond effectively to this asymmetric “way of war.” Washington has often Streated Tehran with caution and granted it significant leeway in the conduct of its gray zone activities due to fears that U.S. pushback would lead to “all-out” war—fears that the Islamic Republic actively encourages. Yet, the very purpose of this modus operandi is to enable Iran to pursue its interests and advance its anti-status quo agenda while avoiding escalation that could lead to a wider conflict. Because of the potentially high costs of war—especially in a proliferated world—gray zone conflicts are likely to become increasingly common in the years to come. For this reason, it is more important than ever for the United States to understand the logic underpinning these types of activities, in all their manifestations. Gray Zone, Asymmetric, and Hybrid “Ways of War” in Iran’s Strategy Gray zone warfare, asymmetric warfare, and hybrid warfare are terms that are often used interchangeably, but they refer neither to discrete forms of warfare, nor should they be used interchangeably—as they often (incor- rectly) are. Rather, these terms refer to that aspect of strategy that concerns how states employ ways and means to achieve national security policy ends.2 Means refer to the diplomatic, informational, military, economic, and cyber instruments of national power; ways describe how these means are employed to achieve the ends of strategy. -
Iran Dossier
30 November 2010 Last updated at 14:48 GMT Iran and EU agree new nuclear talks Iran's nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili is to travel to Geneva for the talks Iran has agreed to hold talks on its controversial nuclear programme, the European Union has said. The talks are to take place in Geneva on 6 and 7 December, said the EU's foreign policy chief, Baroness Ashton. They will be the first high-level direct talks with Iran on the nuclear issue since October 2009. Western powers fear Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons, but Tehran insists its uranium enrichment programme is peaceful and legal. Baroness Ashton's office said that meetings with Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili next week see the EU's foreign policy chief would lead a delegation of officials from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council - US, Russia, China, France and Britain - as well as Germany. "We've now received a response from the Iranian authorities in which they have said that Dr Jalili has accepted Catherine Ashton's proposal to meet in Geneva", a spokesman said on Tuesday. Western countries have called on Iran to stop all enrichment of uranium amid accusations that the country is pursuing a secret nuclear weapons programme. Iran's defiance has led to sanctions on the country, which says it uses nuclear technology only for peaceful purposes. As a member state of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran says it has the right to enrich uranium to produce nuclear fuel. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad vowed on Tuesday that his country would not make "one iota" of concessions over its nuclear rights at the meetings in Geneva. -
The Coming Iran Nuclear Talks Openings and Obstacles
The Coming Iran Nuclear Talks Openings and Obstacles DENNIS ROSS January 2021 he Middle East will not be a priority in the Biden administration’s approach to foreign policy. But the T Iranian nuclear program will require a response.* With the Iranian parliament having adopted legislation mandating uranium enrichment to 20 percent and suspension of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections if sanctions are not lifted by February 2020 in response to the targeted killing of Iranian scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh— and with Iran now having accumulated twelve times the low-enriched uranium permitted under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—the administration will have to deal with the Iranian challenge.1 To be sure, the nuclear program and its potential to make Iran a nuclear weapons state are not the only challenges the Islamic Republic poses: the regime’s ballistic missile program and destabilizing and aggressive behavior in the region threaten conflicts that can escalate both vertically and horizontally. But it is the nuclear program that is most pressing. *The author would like to thank a number of his Washington Institute colleagues—Katherine Bauer, Patrick Clawson, Michael Eisenstadt, Barbara Leaf, Matthew Levitt, David Makovsky, David Pollock, Robert Satloff, and Michael Singh—for the helpful comments they provided as he prepared this paper. He also wants to give special thanks to several people outside the Institute—Robert Einhorn, Richard Nephew, David Petraeus, Norman Roule, and Karim Sadjadpour—for the thoughtful comments -
Iran and Israel's National Security in the Aftermath of 2003 Regime Change in Iraq
Durham E-Theses IRAN AND ISRAEL'S NATIONAL SECURITY IN THE AFTERMATH OF 2003 REGIME CHANGE IN IRAQ ALOTHAIMIN, IBRAHIM,ABDULRAHMAN,I How to cite: ALOTHAIMIN, IBRAHIM,ABDULRAHMAN,I (2012) IRAN AND ISRAEL'S NATIONAL SECURITY IN THE AFTERMATH OF 2003 REGIME CHANGE IN IRAQ , Durham theses, Durham University. Available at Durham E-Theses Online: http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/4445/ Use policy The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that: • a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in Durham E-Theses • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. Please consult the full Durham E-Theses policy for further details. Academic Support Oce, Durham University, University Oce, Old Elvet, Durham DH1 3HP e-mail: [email protected] Tel: +44 0191 334 6107 http://etheses.dur.ac.uk 2 . IRAN AND ISRAEL’S NATIONAL SECURITY IN THE AFTERMATH OF 2003 REGIME CHANGE IN IRAQ BY: IBRAHIM A. ALOTHAIMIN A thesis submitted to Durham University in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy DURHAM UNIVERSITY GOVERNMENT AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS March 2012 1 2 Abstract Following the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iran has continued to pose a serious security threat to Israel. -
Issue No. 486 AUGUST 2021
Issue Brief ISSUE NO. 486 AUGUST 2021 © 2021 Observer Research Foundation. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, copied, archived, retained or transmitted through print, speech or electronic media without prior written approval from ORF. The Limits of Military Coercion in Halting Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Programme Kunal Singh Abstract Israel believes that the use of force is essential to stopping Iran from making the nuclear bomb. A vocal section of the strategic affairs community in the United States agrees with the proposition. This brief argues that military means are unlikely to sabotage the nuclear weapons programme of an advanced-stage bomb-seeker like Iran. Moreover, use of force could be counterproductive as it can incentivise Iran’s pursuit of the bomb, and it may erode the confidence required for diplomatic negotiations that can possibly help cease the weapons programme. Attribution: Kunal Singh, “The Limits of Military Coercion in Halting Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Programme,” ORF Issue Brief No. 486, August 2021, Observer Research Foundation. 01 n early April in Vienna, the Biden administration initiated efforts with Iran to reinstate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), more commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, from which the United States (US) had exited during the tenure of former US President Donald Trump. A week later, an explosion at Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment Ifacility caused a power blackout. Israel, the state most vocally opposed to the JCPOA, is widely believed to have -
The European Position on the Nuclear Agreement: Its Significance and Future Scenarios
STUDY The European Position on the Nuclear Agreement: Its Significance and Future Scenarios ٢٠٢٠ July ١٦ Sulaiman Hussain Alwadai a researcher at the International Insti- (tute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah Contents Introduction ...........................................................................................................3 I. European and Iranian Motives for Signing the Nuclear Deal ...............5 II. The US Withdrawal and the European Pledges to Maintain the Nuclear Deal .......................................................................... 10 III. The Factors Causing a Shift in the European Position on Iran ....... 14 IV. The Diminishing Importance of the Nuclear Deal ...............................17 V. The European Position and the Future of the Nuclear Deal ..............19 Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 22 Introduction The nuclear deal has been a turning point in the course of Iranian-European relations. The governments of the European Troika (France, Germany and the UK) and their Iranian counterpart contributed significantly to concluding the agreement and reaching common ground. This was done in order for both parties to reap the political and economic benefits from lifting the UN sanctions on Iran. This was in addition to monitoring Iran’s nuclear program. When the Trump administration decided to pull out of the nuclear deal, the European parties clung to the deal and adopted a neutral position with regard to the recriminations between the two parties (the United States and Iran) to prevent the total collapse of the deal. The policies of Russia and China clash with those of the United States. As a result, they denounced the US pullout from the deal and rejected the sanctions imposed on Iran. Along with Iranian diplomatic efforts, the three The European Position on the Nuclear Agreement: Its Significance and Future Scenarios 3 parties seek to persuade the European countries to adopt a position which is in opposition to Trump’s unilateral policies. -
Examining 10 Warning Signs of Iran Nuclear Weapons
International Committee In Search of Justice (ISJ) President: Dr. Alejo Vidal-Quadras Rue d’Arlon 63, B-1040 Brussels Belgium Tel : +32 2 400 1071 [email protected] www.isjcommittee.com EXAMINING 10 WARNING SIGNS OF IRAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT NOVEMBER 20,2014 Dr. Alejo Vidal Quadras, Former Vice‐President of European Parliament, Professor of Atomic and Nuclear Physics: “An objective, thoroughly researched report on the core issue of the nature of Iranian nuclear program and its status”. Bob Jospeh, Former US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, Senior White House Security Council staff on weapons of mass destruction: “A critically important report at a critically important time”. John Bolton, former US Ambassador to the UN, former Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security: "A timely and well document report with alarming findings on Iran's nuclear program." Contents Executive summary Chapter 1: SPND (organ in charge of weaponization) Chapter 2: Procurement of dual purpose equipment and its possible use for military dimensions of nuclear program Chapter 3: Secret enrichment of uranium Chapter 4: Enrichment using laser technology Chapter 5: High explosives tests and trigger mechanism Chapter 6: Neutron initiator Chapter 7: Manufacturing uranium metal (uranium hemisphere) Chapter 8: Hydro-dynamic tests and explosion vessels at Parchin site Chapter 9: Research on nuclear warhead Chapter 10: Key scientists and researchers engaged in possible military dimensions of nuclear program International Committee In Search of Justice (ISJ) was initially formed in 2008 as an informal group of EU parliamentarians to seek justice for the Iranian democratic opposition. -
Iran's Nuclear Ambitions From
IDENTITY AND LEGITIMACY: IRAN’S NUCLEAR AMBITIONS FROM NON- TRADITIONAL PERSPECTIVES Pupak Mohebali Doctor of Philosophy University of York Politics June 2017 Abstract This thesis examines the impact of Iranian elites’ conceptions of national identity on decisions affecting Iran's nuclear programme and the P5+1 nuclear negotiations. “Why has the development of an indigenous nuclear fuel cycle been portrayed as a unifying symbol of national identity in Iran, especially since 2002 following the revelation of clandestine nuclear activities”? This is the key research question that explores the Iranian political elites’ perspectives on nuclear policy actions. My main empirical data is elite interviews. Another valuable source of empirical data is a discourse analysis of Iranian leaders’ statements on various aspects of the nuclear programme. The major focus of the thesis is how the discourses of Iranian national identity have been influential in nuclear decision-making among the national elites. In this thesis, I examine Iranian national identity components, including Persian nationalism, Shia Islamic identity, Islamic Revolutionary ideology, and modernity and technological advancement. Traditional rationalist IR approaches, such as realism fail to explain how effective national identity is in the context of foreign policy decision-making. I thus discuss the connection between national identity, prestige and bargaining leverage using a social constructivist approach. According to constructivism, states’ cultures and identities are not established realities, but the outcomes of historical and social processes. The Iranian nuclear programme has a symbolic nature that mingles with socially constructed values. There is the need to look at Iran’s nuclear intentions not necessarily through the lens of a nuclear weapons programme, but rather through the regime’s overall nuclear aspirations. -
Casusluk Faaliyetlerinde Motiflerin İncelenmesi: İran İslam Cumhuriyeti Örneği (1979-2019)
Casusluk Faaliyetlerinde Motiflerin İncelenmesi: İran İslam Cumhuriyeti Örneği (1979-2019) Muhammet Murat TEKEK1 Geliş Tarihi: 03/04/2020 Kabul Tarihi: 09/05/2020 Atıf: TEKEK.,M.Murat, “Casusluk Faaliyetlerinde Motiflerin İncelenmesi: İran İslam Cumhuriyeti Örneği (1979-2019)”, Ortadoğu Etütleri, 12-1 (2020):238-273 Öz: Bu çalışma, İran İslam Cumhuriyeti (İİC) aleyhine, 1979 yılından günümüze, İİC vatandaşlığına sahip olan ve casuslukla suçlanan kişilerin casusluk faaliyetini gerçekleştirmekteki motifleri (Motivasyon, Güdü, Saik, İtki) ile bu motiflerin şekillendiği arka planın, açık kaynaklar üzerinden, incelenmesine odaklanmıştır. Toplanan nitel verilerin incelenmesinden elde edilen bulgulardan motifler belirlenmiş ve bunlar çalışmanın sonunda bir sınıflandırmaya tabi tutularak genellemeler yapılmıştır. Sözkonusu sınıflandırma, ABD (Amerika Birleşik Devletleri) ölçeğinde yapılan mevcut bir çalışma ile karşılaştırmalı analize tabi tutulmuştur. Ayrıca casusluk faaliyetlerinin İİC tarafından nasıl tanımlandığı, yorumlandığı, ilgili mevzuatlarla hangi müeyyidelerin getirildiği, casuslukla nasıl mücadele edildiğini belirlemeyi ve tüm bunlara karşın casusluk faaliyetlerinde bulunan veya casuslukla suçlanan kişilerin motivasyonlarının neler olduğunu tespit etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Anahtar Kelimeler: İran, Casusluk, Motif, Çifte Vatandaşlık, Yumuşak Yıkım 1 YL Öğrencisi, Polis Akademisi-TR, [email protected], ORCID:0000-0002-8985-4760 238 Analysis of Motives in Spy Activities: The Example of Islamic Republic of Iran (1979-2019) Muhammet Murat