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Iran and Israel's National Security in the Aftermath of 2003 Regime Change in Iraq

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Durham E-Theses IRAN AND ISRAEL'S NATIONAL SECURITY IN THE AFTERMATH OF 2003 REGIME CHANGE IN IRAQ ALOTHAIMIN, IBRAHIM,ABDULRAHMAN,I How to cite: ALOTHAIMIN, IBRAHIM,ABDULRAHMAN,I (2012) IRAN AND ISRAEL'S NATIONAL SECURITY IN THE AFTERMATH OF 2003 REGIME CHANGE IN IRAQ , Durham theses, Durham University. Available at Durham E-Theses Online: http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/4445/ Use policy The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that: • a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in Durham E-Theses • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. Please consult the full Durham E-Theses policy for further details. Academic Support Oce, Durham University, University Oce, Old Elvet, Durham DH1 3HP e-mail: [email protected] Tel: +44 0191 334 6107 http://etheses.dur.ac.uk 2 . IRAN AND ISRAEL’S NATIONAL SECURITY IN THE AFTERMATH OF 2003 REGIME CHANGE IN IRAQ BY: IBRAHIM A. ALOTHAIMIN A thesis submitted to Durham University in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy DURHAM UNIVERSITY GOVERNMENT AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS March 2012 1 2 Abstract Following the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iran has continued to pose a serious security threat to Israel. The US initially occupied Iraq, ultimately overthrowing Saddam Hussein’s regime, in the belief that it would be able to replace that government with a pro-American administration which would counteract the threat from Iran. Instead, the balance of power in the Gulf region was radically altered and Iran, which saw Iraq as its first line of defence against the increasing threat from Israel, sought ways to prevent the US from taking control of Iraq. This failure by the US to stabilise Iraq paved the way for Iran to expand its influence over the region and altered the ‘balance of threat’ making it an actual threat to Israeli national security. This led Iran, as part of its deterrence and forward-deployment strategy, to initiate a cold war with Israel by accelerating its nuclear programme and its support, both financial and military, of Hezbollah In order to explain any changes to Israel’s stance on security since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, this study examines that country’s national security policy since the invasion, looking at the perceived threat from Iran, in the form of its nuclear capabilities, and its forward defence strategy. This study suggests that the US was so focussed on implementing regime change in Iraq, in the belief that this would instigate the introduction of democracy to the region, that it failed to foresee the wider geopolitical implications of the power vacuum which would occur. The result was that the way was left clear for Iran to exercise its influence over the region and to alter the balance of threat against Israel. This study argues that, in order to better understand Israel’s new security status, it is essential to explore the Iranian threat, which is characterised by its development of nuclear capabilities and the forward defence structure which can be seen in Tehran’s alliance with Syria and Hezbollah 3 DECLARATION I hereby declare that the content of this thesis, including all materials, has not been previously used for a degree in this or any other university apart from where otherwise stated and other sources are acknowledged by explicit references. I further declare that this thesis is available for photocopying and inter-line library, for the title and summary to be made available for all researchers. IBRAHIM A. ALOTHAIMIN 1-3-2012 Signed…………………………. 4 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS IN THE NAME OF GOD, THE MERCIFUL, THE COMPASSIONATE All Praise be to GOD, the Lord of the worlds, prayers and peace be upon Mohammed His servant and Messenger, All praise be to You, we have no knowledge except what You taught us. This thesis was made possible by the assistance and support of a number of people to whom I would like to express my special thanks. One of the most important of them, my primary supervisor Professor Anoush Ehteshami, gave me his utmost support to complete my PhD and encouraged and guided me throughout my research. I cannot tell him how much I appreciate that and cannot express my deep thanks to him enough. I would also like to express my deep appreciation to my dear friend Ibrahim Al- Kandy for his productive comments and feedback during my work. Also, special thanks to Dr. Adnan Sheikh who always supported me and provided me with guidance during my work, and Dr. Salim Al-Ghamdi deserve huge thanks for their support. I am grateful to my mother Souad, my brothers and sisters and my dear friends for instilling in me a desire to accomplish my objectives and a commitment to complete what I start, however long that may take and however much they need me to be beside them. Their belief in me and their encouragement has given me the motivation for this work and I would never have finished it without their love and support. 5 Last, but not least, I would like to express my special thanks and my deepest feelings to my wife, Wafa Alsubeaia, my daughter, Reema, and my son, Abdurrahman, for their unending patience and tolerance over the period of this work. I thank you for your love and for being there to encourage and assist me all the way along. 6 DEDICATION This effort is dedicated to the memory of my father who passed away 12 years ago, my beloved mother whose dream it was to see me happy in life and to my wife, Wafa, my daughter, Reema, and my son, Abdurrahman, who have struggled to share in my success. 7 Table of Contents Table of Contents ......................................................................................................... 8 LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................... 14 LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................... 14 Chapter 1 .................................................................................................................... 15 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 15 BACKGROUND AND ISSUES: UNDERPINNINGS OF THE PROJECT ........ 15 1.1 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES ................................................................................. 17 1.2 SUBORDINATE QUESTIONS .......................................................................... 19 1.3 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY AND ITS CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE FIELD .................................................................................................................. 20 1.4 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ..................................................................... 21 1.4.1 Liberalism ....................................................................................................... 21 1.4.2 Constructivism ................................................................................................ 22 1.4.2.1 Social knowledge ..................................................................................... 24 1.4.2.2 Social practice .............................................................................................. 25 1.4.2.3 Identities and interests.................................................................................. 26 1.4.3 Realism ........................................................................................................... 29 1.4.3.1 Classical realism (Morgenthau and political realism) ................................. 30 1.4.3.2 Neo-realism or structural realism ................................................................. 31 1.4.4 Balance of Power Theory................................................................................ 34 1.4.5 Stephen M. Walt’s Balance of Threat Theory: Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power .......................................................................................... 35 1.4.6 Reflecting on the Theoretical Framework of the Study .................................. 37 1.5 METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................... 38 8 1.6 RESEARCH OVERVIEW .......................................................................... 39 Chapter 2 .................................................................................................................... 45 ISRAELI NATIONAL SECURITY BETWEEN 1948 AND 1990s ...................... 45 2.0. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................... 45 2.1. ISRAELI NATIONAL SECURITY: BACKGROUND AND ROOTS...... 46 2.2. THE BASIC PILLARS OF THE ISRAELI SECURITY DOCTRINE ..... 48 2.2.1. Deterrence Strategy .................................................................................... 48 2.3. CHANGES IN ISRAELI SECURITY THINKING .................................... 55 2.3.1. The War of Independence in 1948 ............................................................. 55 2.3.2. The 1956 Suez War/Sinai Campaign ......................................................... 59 2.3.3. The Six Day War/1967 War ...................................................................... 61 2.3.4. The War of Attrition .................................................................................
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