U.S. Strategic Options Towards Iran: Understanding U.S.—Iranian Relations Through Iranian Domestic Politics
U.S. STRATEGIC OPTIONS TOWARDS IRAN: UNDERSTANDING U.S.—IRANIAN RELATIONS THROUGH IRANIAN DOMESTIC POLITICS April 25, 2014 The George H.W. Bush School of Government and Public Service TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY Jacob Abernathy, David Blanco, Marlee Kingsley, Michael Kramer, Karolina Łopacka, Heather Mauel, Michael Peacock, Katherine Stotts, Marques Varela, and Krysten Young Advisor: Dr. Mohammad A. Tabaar U.S. STRATEGIC OPTIONS TOWARDS IRAN: UNDERSTANDING U.S. – IRANIAN RELATIONS THROUGH IRANIAN DOMESTIC POLITICS April 25, 2014 The George H.W. Bush School of Government and Public Service Texas A&M University Jacob Abernathy, David Blanco, Marlee Kingsley, Michael Kramer, Karolina Lopacka, Heather Mauel, Mike Peacock, Katherine Stotts, Marques Varela, Krysten Young Advisor: Dr. Mohammad Tabaar 0 Table of Contents Executive Summary 2 Introduction 3 Iran’s Political Factions and the Convergence 5 Scenario A: Comprehensive Deal 7 Scenario B: Incremental Progress 13 Scenario C: No Deal 19 Conclusion 25 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The ongoing nuclear negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran have made greater progress on more substantial issues than any previous talks. This report argues that Iran’s unprecedented willingness to negotiate is strongly influenced by two factors: a united P5+1 and more importantly, a convergence of interests among Iran’s domestic factions. While there has long been knowledge of the challenges posed by Iran’s often-competing factions, no other study pinpoints them as a primary variable in the nuclear negotiations. Based on 50 interviews with high-level Iran experts and government officials and independent research, our study provides a unique framework for understanding the dynamics of Iranian domestic politics and its impact on the efficacy of U.S.
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