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A New Nuclear Crisis? Consequences Arising from the US-Iran Ian

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A New Nuclear Crisis? Consequences Arising from the US-Iran Ian Raphael J. Spoetta FOKUS | 7/2019 A new nuclear crisis? Consequences arising from the US-Iran ian collision course over the Iran Nuclear Agreement Driving towards the cliff events. Whether the United States sabo- On 14 August 2002, Alireza Jafarzadeh, the taged the tankers themselves in order to spokesperson for the Mujahedeen-e Khalq On 5 May 2019, National Security Adviser have a pretence to attack Iran, as Tehran (MEK), an Islamist-Communist opposi- John Bolton announced the deployment implied,4 or Iran sabotaged the tankers in tion group, revealed the extent of Iran’s of an US aircraft-carrier strike group, led order to hinder oil transporting through clandestine nuclear programme, including by flag ship USS Abraham Lincoln to the the Strait of Hormuz has remained unclear the enrichment facility at Natanz and the Persian Gulf.1 This carrier group would be at the moment. However, these events heavy-water reactor at Arak. Iran had not accompanied by B-52 bombers and Mr. clearly demonstrate the role hybrid disclosed the existence of their nuclear Bolton stated that any attack on the Uni- tactics play in this situation. The questi- facilities to the IAEA, though it was obliged ted States or its allies would be met with on is whether these measures will ease to do so under the 1974 comprehensive “unrelenting force.” The Iranian response, the international pressure or will further Safeguards Agreement. as expected, was defiant. Tehran has re- escalate the tensions under these volatile peatedly threatened to close the Straits of circumstances. At the September 2002 Board of Governors Hormuz, a region which contains appro- meeting, Gholamreza Aghazadeh, the ximately 20 percent of the world’s annual Historical review head of the Atomic Energy Organisation consumption of oil. Furthermore, Iranian of Iran (AEOI) confirmed to then-IAEA President Hassan Rouhani announced he The origins of the conflict between the Director General Mohammad ElBaradei would only negotiate with the United Sta- United States and Iran began in 1953, the the scope of Iran’s nuclear programme. tes should Washington re-instate the Joint year of the US-backed coup against former Furthermore, he stated that Iran aimed at Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iranian prime minister Mohammad Mossa- further developing its nuclear fuel cycle. commonly known as the Iranian Nuclear degh. The coup against Mr. Mossadegh This led to an international outcry and Agreement. and the subsequent Iranian rule under the IAEA attempted to gain access to the Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi led to the Iranian nuclear sites. Precisely one year after US President perception of the late Shah as a mere pup- Donald J. Trump announced the USA’s pet of the West. The Shah ruled as a deeply After an IAEA inspection in February 2003, withdrawal from the JCPOA2, it was fore- unpopular monarch, and as a result he was the IAEA concluded in June 2003 that Iran seeable that tensions between Iran and overthrown in the Iranian revolution 1979, had failed to comply with its comprehen- the United States would escalate. Any US and fled to the United States. The subse- sive Safeguards Agreement. After intense Navy military presence in the Persian Gulf quent Iran hostage crisis5 lasted for 444 negotiations in the IAEA framework, the bears the potential for further conflict, as days, which brought about the profound Board of Governors passed a resolution any incident with the Iranian navy could mistrust between the USA and Iran. that included a passage about a potential potentially lead to military confronta- referral of the Iranian nuclear file to the tion between those two states. Such an At this point in time, the Iranian nuclear UN Security Council in September 2003. incident would not be the first between programme had just entered its third Should Iran be found noncompliant, the the US Navy and the navy of the Iranian decade. Originally launched under the file would be submitted to New York. Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). In Shah in 1957 with US support, the nuclear 2016, two US Navy riverine command programme gained momentum during In October 2003, the Iranians reached an boats entered Iranian waters due to a navi- the 1960s. The post-revolutionary Islamic agreement with the foreign ministers of gational error and, as a consequence, were Republic originally decided to abandon France, Britain, and Germany (E3 or EU3). captured by the IRGC. As a matter of fact, the nuclear programme. However, the The Tehran Agreement obliged Iran to the IRGC “[…] had a history of provoking Islamic Republic restarted the programme suspend enrichment for the duration of the U.S. side with reckless maneuvers that soon after in 1984. The fundamental secu- negotiations. Furthermore, the Islamic Re- on many occasions could easily have led to rity-related question in this respect was public agreed to allow the IAEA to inspect a military confrontation.”3 whether the Iranian nuclear programme its nuclear sites. Moreover, Iran signed an was, as Iran repeatedly claimed, exclusively additional protocol with the IAEA on 18 The sabotage acts against oil tankers peaceful in nature. December 2003, thereby allowing IAEA near the strategically important Strait of inspectors to conduct “snap inspections” of Hormuz have to be seen in light of these Iranian nuclear sites. 1 A new nuclear crisis? FOKUS | 7/2019 However, the E3 were unable to build on ment facility and declared that it would President Ahmadinejad was re-elected. the success of the Tehran Agreement due resume enrichment. Germany, France and In an election that was generally seen as to the inability of circumventing the US Britain, together with the United States, being rigged7,8, Mr. Ahmadinejad defeated sanctions on Iran and due to the fact that subsequently formulated a common his opponent Mir-Hussein Mousavi 66 to both the USA and Iran refused to nego- position with Russia and China called the 33 percent. “In the following weeks mil- tiate directly with one another. In February P5+1, composed of the five permanent UN lions took to the streets, swathed in green 2004, the IAEA discovered Iranian experi- Security Council members and Germany. (the colour of Mousavi’s election cam- ments with Polonium-210, which is used On 4 February 2006, the IAEA Board of paign), to protest against the government in the production of nuclear weapons. Governors passed a resolution with 27 to and the election result; in response, the While the USA pressed to refer the Iranian 3 votes referring the nuclear file to the UN regime shut down the internet, threw out nuclear file to the UN Security Council, Security Council. foreign journalists, killed and imprisoned the E3 stalled these attempts. At the same demonstrators, and generally demonstra- time, the Iranians pressed for further nego- In 2006, then-US Secretary of State Condo- ted its rogue status.”9 tiations with the E3 in order to be able to leezza Rice and Under Secretary of State resume enrichment as soon as possible. Nicholas Burns offered to negotiate direct- On 21 September 2009, Iran informed the ly with the Iranian side, but were refused. IAEA about a hitherto secret enrichment Given the pressure from the IAEA Board of As a consequence, the UN Security Council facility at Fordow, near Qom. Given the Governors, which had passed a resolution passed resolution 1737 in December 2006, fact that the Fordow site was located close threatening UN Security Council referral of imposing a first round of sanctions on Iran. to an IRGC base and that it was too small the Iranian nuclear file, the Iranians agreed When Iran continued its enrichment activi- in scale to serve as a backup for the Natanz to further negotiations with the E3 in Paris ties in 2006 and 2007, the Security Council plant, as Iran claimed, the international in November 2004. In the resulting Paris imposed additional sanctions on the community generally suspected Fordow Agreement (not to be confused with the Iranian missile programme with Resolution to be of military purpose. In Geneva, the Paris Climate Accord), Iran reiterated that it 1747 in March 2007. P5+1 and Iran started negotiations on an was not seeking nuclear weapons capacity, agreement on the Iranian nuclear pro- and agreed to continue the suspension of The USA attempted several times to start gramme which ultimately failed. On 9 June enrichment. The Paris Agreement, further- direct negotiations with Iran, in accor- 2010, the Security Council passed Resolu- more, obliged the E3 to begin negotiations dance with the above-mentioned offer tion 1929, thereby imposing another with Iran in the near future. by Mr. Burns and Ms. Rice. These attempts round of sanctions on Iran, in addition to were seen favourably by Ali Larijani but newly imposed US sanctions. In 2005, the principlist Mahmoud Ahma- Iranian president Ahmadinejad seemed to dinejad was elected President of Iran. The have stifled the possibility of direct nego- During this phase, the Iranian nuclear pro- country then restarted uranium enrich- tiations. In June 2007, a delegation of 300 gramme was targeted, likely by Western ment activities on 8 August 2005 due to a Iranians were invited to direct negotiations intelligence services. Not only were lea- lack of progress in negotiations with the in New York, but did not even leave Tehran. ding nuclear scientists assassinated in Iran E3 and an United States who refused to As a result, the United States continued but in June 2010, malware was detected negotiate directly with Iran. In fact, Iran to impose unilateral sanctions on Iran in Iranian nuclear sites that manipulated would have likely changed its policy in and on 17 October 2007 it designated a Iranian centrifuges.
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