1 IRAN-2014/10/31 THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION CHALLENGES IN NUCLEAR VERIFICATION: THE IAEA’S ROLE ON THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR ISSUE Washington, D.C. Friday, October 31, 2014 Speaker: YUKIYA AMANO Director General International Atomic Energy Agency Moderator: ROBERT EINHORN Senior Fellow, Arms Control and Non- Proliferation Initiative The Brookings Institution * * * * * ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 2 IRAN-2014/10/31 P R O C E E D I N G S MR. EINHORN: Good morning. My name is Bob Einhorn. I'd like to welcome you to Brookings and to today's event which is part of the Alan and Jane Batkin International Leaders Forum Series. Our speaker today is Yukiya Amano, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA. Years when I spoke to groups or I briefed reporters I would simply use the initials IAEA, then I'd catch myself and remember to sound out, you know, the full name of the Agency. Today you don't have to do that anymore. The IAEA has practically become a household word. It's an indispensible effort; it's an indispensible player in international efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation. It's a safeguard system. It's highly sophisticated monitoring system is an essential element for providing assurance that nuclear programs are truly peaceful and for detecting possible violations of non-proliferation obligations. The Agency has been at the center of compliance controversies with North Korea, Iraq, Libya, and Syria. And now it's heavily involved in the Iranian nuclear issue. The Agency has monitored Iran's implementation of the nuclear elements of the November 2013 interim accord between the P5+1 countries and Iran, the so-called joint plan of action. And since December 2011 it has sought Iranian cooperation in resolving serious concerns that at least in the past Iran carried out research, experiments, and procurement activities related to the development of nuclear weapons. But so far Iran has largely stonewalled the IAEA's investigation. And if an agreement is reached between the P5+1 countries and Iran on a comprehensive solution to the nuclear issue the responsibility will fall to the IAEA to monitor Iran's compliance. Yukiya Amano was elected Director General of the IAEA in 2009 and he is now serving his second term of office. Before becoming Director General Mr. Amano had a distinguished career in the Japanese Diplomatic Service. His last post as a ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 3 IRAN-2014/10/31 Japanese Diplomat was as Japan's Ambassador to the IAEA from 2005 to 2009. And as Japan's representative to the IAEA he served as Chairman of the Agency's Board of Governors in the 2005-2006 periods. And in that capacity he accepted the Nobel Prize on behalf of the Agency for its work in Iraq. During his tenure Director General Amano has done much to enhance the IAEA's reputation for professionalism, integrity, and objectivity. His predecessor in my view sometimes strayed into highly political matters, providing his personal advice on policies that IAEA member states ought to pursue. DG Amano has kept the Agency focused on its original technical mandate, its area of special competence, and it's been extraordinarily capable instrument of non-proliferation policy. And this emphasis on the Agency's technical mandate has restored and I think increased the Agency's credibility, and credibility is the IAEA's number one asset. Director General Amano has made some tough calls on issues such as the Syrian nuclear reactor and the possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program. He called them the way he saw them as warranted by the information collected and analyzed by his very capable professional staff. Now it's predictable that governments that were identified by the Agency as having violated or likely violated their obligations would attack the Agency and its Director General, accusing them of bias and it being the tool of countries like the United States. But Yukiya Amano has made clear that he won't be deterred or intimidated by such tactics. He'll continue to follow the evidence wherever it leads. The DG has been a staunch supporter of the Agency's strength and safeguard system and a staunch defender of that system against efforts to weaken it by countries with not so hidden agendas. But the DG and his Agency are not only focused on safeguards and nuclear non-proliferation, they've boosted the Agency's technical cooperation program to ensure that member states, especially those just embarking on civil nuclear programs, can fully benefit from the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. In the ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 4 IRAN-2014/10/31 wake of the Fukushima Daiichi tragedy the IAEA has been at the forefront of efforts to ensure the highest standards of nuclear safety throughout the world. And with the worldwide terrorist threat continuing to grow and the worldwide increase in stocks of nuclear and radiological materials the Agency under the DG's leadership has significantly expanded its role in the area of nuclear security. So the IAEA's agenda is full, its role is critical, and the challenges it faces are daunting. Fortunately we have Yukiya Amano at the helm. So Mr. Director General, we look forward to your remarks. (Applause) DG AMANO: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I am very pleased to be here today at Brookings. This institution has a well deserved reputation for the excellence of its research and the high caliber of its experts. For more than a century you have made a major contribution to public policy, both within the United States and internationally. It is a special pleasure to see Bob Einhorn, a distinguished veteran of arms control and non-proliferation which whom I have worked for many years. I have been asked to talk about the challenges of the nuclear verification and in particular about the role of the IAEA with regard to Iran's nuclear program. Before talking about what the Agency is and does let me tell you what we are not. We are not a political actor as Bob explained well. We are not international nuclear police force and we do not take sides. IAEA is an independent technical organization within the UN family. One of our core activities is to verify that countries are not diverting nuclear material from peaceful activities to make nuclear weapons. We collect and analyze all relevant information and provide factual, impartial, objective reports to our Board of Governors to facilitate its decision making. The IAEA statute states that the Director General is under the authority of and subject to the control of the Board of Governors. Under the statue the IAEA's role in nuclear verification is, "Establish and administer ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 5 IRAN-2014/10/31 safeguards designed to ensure that special fissionable and other materials, services, equipment, and facilities are not used in such a way as to further any military purpose." In addition the treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons requires all non nuclear weapon states to commit themselves to use nuclear material exclusively for peaceful purposes. These countries, non nuclear weapon states, under the NPT are required to conclude a comprehensive safeguard with the IAEA and submit a declaration fall nuclear material and facilities to us. Our inspectors visit facilities to verify that declaration made by countries are correct and inspectors continuously follow up. The IAEA safeguard system appeared to work well until the 1990s; however the discovery of a secret nuclear weapon program in Iraq after the Gulf War of 1990--1991 and development with North Korea's nuclear program showed that concentrating on their own facilities declared to use by countries was not enough. We needed tools that would enable us to verify the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in a country. In response member states approved the model additional protocol in 1997. When a country implements an additional protocol and the Agency acquires more tools to implement safeguards, including additional access to information, to people, and to sites in that country, the additional protocol is essential to the IAEA to be able to conclude that all of a country's nuclear material remains in exclusively peaceful activities. The number of states with additional protocol in force has grown steadily and now stands at 124. This is good news. Ladies and gentlemen, the world in which we implement safeguards today is very different to that of our founding fathers in 1957 as are the challenges we face. New technology and modern communications have made it easier to access knowledge, materials, and expertise that would have been much more restricted back then in 1957. That makes nuclear proliferation easier now. The number of nuclear ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 6 IRAN-2014/10/31 facilities coming under IAEA safeguards continues to grow rapidly by 12 percent in the past 5 years alone. So does the amount of nuclear material to be safeguarded. It has risen by about 14 percent in that period. IAEA resources are limited. Demand from member states for our services continues to grow and our budget is being squeezed.