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17 March 2016 DAILY SUMMARY – 17 MARCH 2016 1. Significant Coalition airstrikes in and around Mosul 2. Over 200 homes destroyed by IS in Qayyarah and Sinjar 3. Coordinated IS attacks reported southwest of Kirkuk on the evening of 16 March 4. Iraqi military plane downed in Hawija during reconnaissance mission 5. Security forces seize the town of Muhammadi and continue advancing north towards Hit 6. Preparations take shape in Baghdad for a large-scale demonstration and follow-on sit-in events outside the International Zone 7. Gunmen shot and killed a 40-year-old man near his home in Abu al-Khasib On 16 March Iraq’s Minister of Immigration, Darbaz Muhammad, told media sources that as many as 750,000 new IDPs could be seen as a result of operations against Mosul, but clarified that the plan is to prevent these individuals from entering the Kurdish Region and instead settle them in camps situated in areas which were under Iraqi jurisdiction prior to the 2003 invasion. While the statement is worded in such a way as to suggest alleviation of pressure on the Kurdish Region whose current population is assessed at approximately 30% comprised of IDPs from Iraq as well as refugees from Syria, the statement also carries political connotations. Prior to the 2003 US-led Coalition invasion of Iraq, areas which are currently disputed territories and now under Peshmerga control were under Iraqi federal jurisdiction. On the evening of 16 March, IS elements launched an assault against Peshmerga forces southwest of Kirkuk, with accounts of mortars and other heavy weapons fire in front line areas. Additional unconfirmed reporting indicates at some point during these events IS may have infiltrated a team of four suicide bombers to Kharabrud, and a team of five others sent to Mullah Abdullah, intending to target Peshmerga forces in these rear areas. It remains plausible that at least one of these areas was subject to an infiltration-style complex suicide attack, though most reporting has not confirmed suicide attacks in these rear areas. Casualties associated with the evenings events on either side have remained exceedingly difficult to confirm. Activity in Anbar was highlighted by accounts that Counterterrorism Service elements secured the Muhammadi area, and reportedly immediately continued advancing north to within 1km of the city according to the Anbar Operations Command. The completed liberation of Mohammadi was largely anticipated during this period following previous operations in the area, and forms another milestone as part of the advance towards Hit. Accounts that forces from this axis of advance are within 1km of Hit itself remain to be further verified, but are plausible if there was a rapid deterioration of remaining IS forces south of Hit. Reports of major advances south of Al Asad Airbase finally taking shape form another significant development that will continue to be monitored. Preparations take shape in Baghdad for a large-scale demonstration and follow-on sit-in events outside the International Zone. As previously discussed, these events remain likely to be relatively well regulated, with the possibility of any significant violence materializing assessed as limited, and security forces expected to be readily capable of mitigating any potential contingencies. Nevertheless, the potential for route restrictions remains apparent, even if most routes remain clear of demonstrators during the sit-in. One of the biggest security concerns for this 11-day period is expected to remain IS perpetrated high-impact attacks. Any such major attacks in the capital during this timeframe is likely to receive greatly amplified media attention, even if demonstration events are not directly impacted. Following the interdiction of a vehicle laden with explosives travelling from Nukhayib in Anbar to Karbala on 12 March, Karbala provincial government officials made multiple new demands. They demanded Anbar security officials be held accountable for the vehicle not being interdicted beforehand, better coordination with the Middle Euphrates Operations Command, additional federal CONFIDENTIAL – FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Page 2 of 4 security support, and demanded the closure of road links between Karbala and the Nukhayib checkpoint. Karbala officials also held another meeting on 17 March to discuss the advancement of recently discussed plans to construct a trench in border areas between the provinces. Syria: On 17 March, Syrian Kurds officially declared the establishment of a federal region in areas under their control in Rojava-Northern Syria, which includes the Jazira, Kobane, and Afrin enclaves. As previously noted, Turkmen, Arabs, and other minorities in these areas were also supportive of this approach. This move unsurprisingly drew immediate criticisms from various opponents to a federalist system of government in Syria, including the Assad Regime, Turkey, and opposition forces. Kurdish officials reiterated that they are not seeking to secede from Syria, but to achieve a greater degree of autonomy to sustain a lasting peace. Despite being regarded as the best Coalition partner operationally in Syria, repeated attempts to allow direct Kurdish representation in the Geneva talks have been blocked, with this move representing a decisive manifestation of self-determination as a result. As of the afternoon of 17 March, the border between Iraqi Kurdistan and Syrian Kurdistan has reportedly been closed, though the motivation behind the closure has yet to be made clear. Both the Semelka as well as Welid border crossing points are now closed to all commercial and civilian traffic, with additional reporting stating that the closure was initiated from the Iraq side of the border. The closure coincides with the announcement of three Kurdish areas of northern Syria forming a federal region, and while periodic closures are reported for a variety of reasons, most commonly security related, a timeline for the reopening has not been discussed. Turkey: On 17 March the Kurdistan Freedom Hawks (TAK) reportedly claimed responsibility for the recent Ankara suicide bombing which killed 37, while maintaining that security forces and not civilians were the primary target. TAK websites promised further attacks against security forces in the future, citing the violence as retribution for Turkish security operations against Kurdish populations in the southeast of the country. Including another vehicle borne IED in Ankara last month, this latest attack makes three in Ankara during a five-month period, with local tensions in the city heightened. This is now the second recent attack in Ankara claimed by TAK, which states it has split from the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) but which many still acknowledge maintain ties. Turkish officials have stated two PKK members were responsible for the attack, banning Kurdish New Year (Newroz) celebrations on 21 March as a mitigation measure against demonstrations. Meanwhile, the German Embassy was closed in Ankara on 17 March, with the consulate and German School in Istanbul also closed due to an “unconfirmed warning” reported by the German Foreign Ministry. A German Embassy warning sent to its citizens in Ankara on Tuesday warned against attacks at shopping centers, while police briefly closed one of two major bridges due to a suspect vehicle. CONFIDENTIAL – FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Page 3 of 4 Disclaimer Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information, however TALOS LLC does not warrant that the information in this document is complete, true, accurate or correct. TALOS LLC accepts no liability arising out of or in connection with the comments made or information provided in this report and is not responsible for any decision made in reliance on this report. TALOS LLC does not accept any liability if this report is used for an alternative purpose from which it is intended, nor to any third party in respect of this report. This information product is graded as Commercial in Confidence and should be transmitted, communicated, stored and secured accordingly. CONFIDENTIAL – FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Page 4 of 4 .
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