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The Exclusion of the PYD from the 2016 Geneva III Peace Talks on Syria

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The Exclusion of the PYD from the 2016 Geneva III Peace Talks on Syria Master Thesis The exclusion of the PYD from the 2016 Geneva III peace talks on Syria Causes and Consequences Lisa Gotoh Student number: 10118330 Universiteit van Amsterdam Master: Politicologie Track: Internationale Betrekkingen Supervisor: Said Rezaeiejan Second reader: Liza Mügge Date: June 24, 2016 The Exclusion of the PYD from the 2016 Geneva peace talks on Syria Lisa Gotoh TABLE OF CONTENT Table of Content ............................................................................................................. 2 List of Abbreviations ...................................................................................................... 4 Abstract ........................................................................................................................... 5 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 6 2 Academic and Societal Relevance ........................................................................... 8 3 Theoretical Framework .......................................................................................... 10 3.1 Conflict Resolution and the Hourglass Model ................................................ 11 3.2 Ohlson’s Causes of War and Peace ................................................................ 14 3.3 Mutually Hurting Stalemate ............................................................................ 15 3.4 Mutually Enticing Opportunities .................................................................... 17 3.4.1 Commitment Problems and the Security Dilemma .................................. 18 3.4.2 Form of Government ................................................................................ 19 3.4.3 Fragile Environment: Violence During Peace Processes ......................... 21 3.5 Actors .............................................................................................................. 23 3.5.1 Primary Parties ......................................................................................... 23 3.5.2 Third-Party Involvement in Peacebuilding .............................................. 24 3.5.3 State Support and Diaspora Support ........................................................ 25 3.6 Diplomacy ....................................................................................................... 26 3.6.1 Negotiation ............................................................................................... 27 3.6.2 Timing ...................................................................................................... 27 3.7 Concluding ...................................................................................................... 30 4 Methodology .......................................................................................................... 31 4.1 Process Tracing ............................................................................................... 31 4.2 Data and Variables .......................................................................................... 32 4.3 Actors .............................................................................................................. 34 5 Analysis ................................................................................................................. 36 5.1 Part 1: Status of Kurds in Syria: From Repression to Autonomy ................... 36 5.2 Part 2: Actors, Interests, Relationships ........................................................... 39 5.2.1 PYD .......................................................................................................... 39 5.2.2 High Negotiations Committee .................................................................. 44 5.2.3 Syrian Government .................................................................................. 47 2 The Exclusion of the PYD from the 2016 Geneva peace talks on Syria Lisa Gotoh 5.2.4 Turkey ...................................................................................................... 50 5.2.5 The United States ..................................................................................... 54 5.2.6 Russia ....................................................................................................... 58 5.3 Part 3: Exclusion of the PYD (consequences) ................................................ 61 6 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 63 7 Discussion .............................................................................................................. 67 Bibliography ................................................................................................................. 69 Primary sources ......................................................................................................... 69 Secondary sources ..................................................................................................... 73 Appendix I .................................................................................................................... 76 Appendix II ................................................................................................................... 81 3 The Exclusion of the PYD from the 2016 Geneva peace talks on Syria Lisa Gotoh LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS FSA – Free Syrian Army HNC – High Negotiations Committee (Syrian Opposition) IS – Islamic State also known as ISIS, ISIL or Daesh ISSG – International Syria Support Group KNC – Kurdish National Council MEO – Mutually Enticing Opportunities MHS – Mutually Hurting Stalemate PKK – Kurdish Worker’s Party PYD – Partiya Yekîtiya Demokrat also known as the Democratic Union Party SDC – Syrian Democratic Council SNC – Syrian National Coalition formerly known as Syrian National Council YPG – Yekîneyên Parastina Gel a.k.a. the People's Protection Units (Military branch of PYD) 4 The Exclusion of the PYD from the 2016 Geneva peace talks on Syria Lisa Gotoh ABSTRACT How come the political party of Syrian Kurds that has received significant outside support from diaspora as well as states is excluded from the Geneva peace talks organised by the United Nations in February 2016? This thesis addresses this question departing from conflict resolution theory. Through qualitative process-tracing, causes of the exclusion of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) are analysed. The analysis is divided into three parts: 1) the changing status of Kurds in Syria; 2) actor analysis of the six most relevant parties (PYD, High Negotiations Committee, Syrian government, Turkey, United States and Russia); 3) the consequences of excluding the PYD. Russia, the U.S. and Turkey play a significant role in the conflict. The continuous support of these three states to the combatting parties is resulting in escalation of war instead of promoting peace. Despite of Russian and American support to the PYD, Turkey managed to exclude the party from the peace talks. Reflecting on the literature of conflict resolution theory, the current setting for peace talks does not provide an fortunate setting in order to come to a sustainable peace agreement. We find that outside support plays a significant role in the possibilities for peace negotiations. In the virtue of this, in order to start a successful peace process it is more important for the key suppliers of resources to perceive a stalemate and negotiations as a better way out than for the belligerents, in contrast to what the literature suggests. In addition, the literature seems to focus too much on the role of one third-party while this case shows there is no one third-party which can influence the conflict dynamics in such way guaranteeing a proper conduct of conflict resolution. Rather, in an internationalized civil war, diplomatic pressures to shift the focus to conflict resolution should be put on outside supporters providing resources to continue fighting. This case is especially complex due to the presence of at least three conflicts within the Syrian war and key parties all setting their priority on a different part of the conflict. 5 The Exclusion of the PYD from the 2016 Geneva peace talks on Syria Lisa Gotoh 1 INTRODUCTION Syria’s civil war began in 2011 when government forces responded with violence to non- violent civilian protests. Soon the conflict escalated and resulted in the rise of armed rebel groups. In an already instable region and without the national army nor opposition forces making major advances, the beginning of 2014 showed the rise of terrorist group Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria followed by the proclamation of the new Caliphate in June 2014 by Abu Bakr al Baghadadi. The United Nations responded with the adoption of Security Council Resolution 2170 (2014) which led to the formation of the Global Coalition to Counter the Islamic States of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, further referred to as IS). Sixty coalition partners reaffirmed their commitment in fighting and defeating IS (U.S. Department of State, 2014). In the midst of the chaos little attention was given to the declaration of a de facto autonomy in November 2013 in northern Syria by a Syrian Kurdish group called the Partiya Yekîtiya Demokrat also known as the Democratic Union Party (PYD). The national Syrian army had withdrawn from the Kurdish populated North in July 2012 which opened the window for the long repressed largest ethnic minority in Syria to mobilize, organize and gain control over
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