Draft, Not for Quotation Voting for Populism: An Analysis of Iran's 2005 Presidential Election* Hadi Salehi Esfahani Department of Economics, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USA
[email protected] Djavad Salehi-Isfahani Department of Economics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA
[email protected] Ali Hashemi Department of Economics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA
[email protected] August 2008 Abstract The 2005 upset election of President Ahmadinejad and the defeat of the reformists have generated much commentary about voter concerns and political behavior in Iran. We employ the district-level results of this election to shed light on the socio-economic factors that contributed to Ahmadinejad's popularity among Iranian voters. Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 there have been on average about one nation- wide election per year. The last two presidents were surprise landslide winners, highlighting the fact that there is little is known about Iran's complex electoral politics. Both elections significantly changed the dynamics of domestic politics and economic policy and reshaped the regional and international political landscape. In particular, the 2005 election brought into question the reformist agenda of the previous eight years and reaffirmed poverty reduction, equality, and religious observance as central factors that shape political behavior in Iran. Our statistical results show that both social and economic factors played important roles in the electoral participation and voting patterns. In particular, all candidates realized that the large young cohorts will be determining the outcome of elections and appealed to them. However, all but Ahmadinejad were of older generations and lacked his record of delivering benefits directly to this group.