The Reform Period in Iran: a Study on the Reasons of Electoral Failures
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THE REFORM PERIOD IN IRAN: A STUDY ON THE REASONS OF ELECTORAL FAILURES A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY KÜBRA OĞUZ IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN THE DEPARTMENT OF MIDDLE EAST STUDIES SEPTEMBER 2013 Approval of the Graduate School of Social Sciences Prof. Dr. Meliha Altunışık Director I certify that this thesis satisfies all the requirements as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. Assoc.Dr. Özlem Tür Head of Department This is to certify that we have read this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. Prof. Dr. Meliha Altunışık Supervisor Examining Committee Members Assist.Prof. Dr. Bayram Sinkaya (YBU, IR) Prof. Dr. Meliha Altunışık (METU, IR) Dr. Derya Göçer Akder (METU, MES) I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last name : Kübra, Oğuz Signature : iii ABSTRACT THE REFORM PERIOD IN IRAN: A STUDY ON THE REASONS OF ELECTORAL FAILURES Oğuz, Kübra M.Sc., Department of Middle East Studies Supervisor : Prof. Dr. Meliha Altunışık September 2013, 108 pages This thesis analyzes the period under the first reformist president, Mohammad Khatami, in the Islamic Republic of Iran between 1997-2005. In the last two years of his presidency, the reformist faction began to lose in the local, parliamentary and the presidential elections. This thesis aims at finding the reasons behind this electoral failure by looking at the domestic and international developments took place in that period. Besides, the thesis provides a political history of the post-revolutionary Iran with a special focus on factional politics in terms of its influences on the course of reformist politics. It is concluded that the hierarchical state structure of Iran creates a power hierarchy between factions which resulted in the inability of the reformist faction in delivering its promises during the presidency of Khatami. Besides, the lack of a common strategy and organizational discipline, and the unsteady relationship between the reformist faction and its constituents contributed to the electoral failures of the reformists. Additionally, a short discussion on the prospects of reform in Iran based on the inferences from the Reform Period is presented in the thesis. It is pointed out that only if the core state elite would accept a power share with the reformist elite, the reformist faction can have an effective place in the state structure. Keywords: Iranian Reform Movement, Factional Politics in Iran, Mohammad Khatami iv ÖZ İRAN’DA REFORM DÖNEMİ: SEÇİM BAŞARISIZLIKLARININ NEDENLERİ ÜZERİNE BİR ÇALIŞMA Oğuz, Kübra M.Sc., Department of Middle East Studies Supervisor : Prof. Dr. Meliha Altunışık Eylül 2013, 108 sayfa Bu tez İran’in 1997-2005 arasında görev yapmış olan ilk reformist cumhurbaşkanı Muhammed Hatemi dönemini inceler. Başkanlığının son iki yılında reformist hizip yerel, parlementer ve başkanlık seçimlerinde kaybetmeye başlamıştır. Bu tez, bahsi geçen dönemde gerçekleşen ulusal ve uluslar arası düzeydeki gelişmelere bakarak bu seçim başarısızlıklarının ardındaki nedenleri bulmaya çalışır. Ayrıca bu tez, reformist siyasetin gidişatı üzerindeki etkisine odaklanarak devrim sonrası İran’daki hizip siyasetleri tarihini içerir. Devletin hiyerarşik yapısının hizipler arasında güç hiyerarşisine sebep olarak Khatami döneminde reformist hizbin vaatlerini yerine getirememesine sebep olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Ayrıca, ortak bir strateji ve örgütsel disiplin yokluğu, ve de reformist hiziple seçmenleri arasındaki değişken ilişki reformistlerin seçim başarısızlıklarını etkilemiştir. Ek olarak be tezde, Reform Dönemi’nden yapılan çıkarımlara dayanarak İran’da reformun geleceği üzerine kısa bir tartışma yapılmaktadır. Sadece çekirdek devlet elitinin reformistlerle bir iktidar paylaşımını kabul etmesi durumunda reformist hizbin devlet yapısında kendine etkili bir yer edinebileceği vurgusu yapılmıştır. Anahtar Kelimeler: İran Reform Hareketi, İran’da Hizip Siyaseti, Mohammad Khatami v To my mother vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I like to express my gratitude to my advisor Prof. Dr. Meliha Altunışık. Without her guidance, insight and encouragement, I would not be able to finish this thesis. I would also like to thank Dr. Derya Gocer Akder for her advices and invaluable support throughout the thesis. I am also very thankful to Asst. Prof. Bayram Sinkaya for his participation in the examining committee, and for his comments and suggestions on my thesis. I am very much indebted to Nezihe Başak Ergin for her technical and moral support. I also want to thank my office friends Figen Uzar Özdemir, Esra Demirkol and Esra Can, my sister, and my friend Ekin Karababa for their friendship and moral support through which I found the confidence while I am studying on my thesis. Lastly, I want to express my gratitude to my mother for her everlasting patience and support which helped me to finish my thesis. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS PLAGIARISM...........................................................................................................iii ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................. iv ÖZ .............................................................................................................................. v DEDICATION .......................................................................................................... vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...................................................................................... vii TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................ viii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................... 1 2. THE EVOLUTION OF REFORMISM IN POST-REVOLUTIONNIOR IRAN ........................................................................................................................ 8 2.1. The Political Structure of the IRI.............................................................8 5 2.1.1. The Impacts of the State Structure on Iranian Politics ............. 10 2.2. Factionalism in the Islamic Republic of Iran ........................................ 12 2.2.1. A Brief Discussion on Factionalism ......................................... 12 2.2.2. Factions in Iranian Politics ........................................................ 14 2.3. The Emergence of Factionalism instead of Party Politics .................... 15 2.3.1. The Impacts of The Absence of Party Politics .......................... 17 2.4. The Emergence of Factionalism in 1980s ............................................. 19 2.4.1. The Islamic Republic Party ....................................................... 19 2.4.2. First Factional Splits and the Deepening of Factional Rivalries ... ............................................................................................................. 20 2.5. The Structural Factors behind the Transformation of the Islamic Left ..... ............................................................................................................. 24 2.6. The Bases of Ideological Transformation of the Islamic Left .............. 32 2.6.1. Ideological Aspects of Iranian Reformism in 1990s ................. 36 3. THE KHATAMI ERA ................................................................................... 40 3.1. Government Formation Process ............................................................ 41 3.2. The Karbaschi Case............................................................................... 42 3.3. The Impeachment of Abdollah Nuri ..................................................... 43 viii 3.4. Chain Murders of November 1998 ....................................................... 45 3.5. Municipal Elections of 1999 ................................................................. 46 3.6. Student Protests of 1999 ....................................................................... 47 3.7. The State Pressure on Press................................................................... 50 3.8. Parliamentary Elections of 2000 ........................................................... 51 3.9. The Intensification of Conservative Pressure and the Presidental Elections of 2001................................................................................. 53 3.10. The Aghajari Case and Student Protests of 2002-2003 ..................... 55 3.11. 9/11 and Its Impacts on Iran ................................................................ 58 3.12. Electoral Failures After 2003 .............................................................. 60 4. THE REASONS OF ELECTORAL FAILURES DURING THE KHATAMI ERA .............................................................................................................. 64 4.1. Problems of the Literature ..................................................................... 65 4.2. The Factors behind the Reformist Electoral Failure ............................. 66 4.2.1. Obstacles to Reform in the Legal Framework ............................ 66 4.2.2. The Internal Structure of Reformist Elite Politics ....................... 72 4.3. Future