The Islamic Republic of Iran: An introduction RESEARCH PAPER 09/92 11 December 2009 2009 was a year of anniversaries for Iran: thirty years since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 toppled the Shah, twenty-one years since the end of its devastating conflict with Iraq, and twenty years since the death of the revolution’s iconic leader, Ayatollah Khomeini. Yet, for all its historical significance, 2009 emerged as a significant year in the history of the Islamic Republic in its own right. The disputed election, which saw the re-election of the radical, neo-conservative Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president amid widespread popular protests and accusations of vast electoral fraud, resulted in the most serious internal challenge to the regime’s authority since its foundation. 2009 was also a significant year in Iran’s foreign relations, with President Obama signalling a desire to engage the Islamic Republic in a new and constructive dialogue, particularly over its controversial nuclear programme, about which new revelations of clandestine development emerged in September 2009. In the thirty years since its establishment, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been the focus of sustained international attention. Despite the attention, however, it continues to defy easy characterisation. The Islamic Republic, with its factional politics and complex foreign relations remains enigmatic. This paper provides an introduction to the Islamic Republic, its politics, economy, foreign and defence policies, and nuclear programme. It examines the governmental structure of the theocratic state, analyses the key personalities and forums of decision-making and assesses Iran’s policies at home and abroad. Stephen Jones Recent Research Papers 09/81 Economic indicators, November 2009 03.11.09 09/82 Unemployment by Constituency, October 2009 11.11.09 09/83 Equality Bill: Committee Stage Report 12.11.09 09/84 Financial Services Bill [Bill 6 of 2009-10] 27.11.09 09/85 Economic Indicators, December 2009 01.12.09 09/86 The Future for Green Taxes 01.12.09 09/87 Climate Change: the Copenhagen Conference 02.12.09 09/88 Energy Bill [Bill 7 of 2009-10] 03.12.09 09/89 Child Poverty Bill: Committee Stage Repor 03.12.09 09/90 Personal Care at Home Bill [Bill 11 of 2009-10] 09.12.09 Research Paper 09/92 Contributing Authors: Stephen Jones, International Affairs and Defence Section: Domestic politics, human rights, foreign policy, nuclear programme, historical overview Grahame Allen and Ian Townsend, Economic Policy and Statistics Section: Economy Paul Bolton, Social and General Statistics Section: Energy Claire Taylor, International Affairs and Defence Section: Conventional military capabilities This information is provided to Members of Parliament in support of their parliamentary duties and is not intended to address the specific circumstances of any particular individual. 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ISSN 1368-8456 RESEARCH PAPER 09/92 Contents Summary 4 1 Background and historical overview 7 1.1 Iran: Key facts 7 1.2 Historical overview: from the Shah to the rise of Ahmadinejad 8 Iran under the Shah 8 The Islamic Revolution and Iran under Ayatollah Khomeini, 1979 – 1989 8 President Rafsanjani and the era of reconstruction, 1989 – 1997 9 President Khatami and the reform movement, 1997 – 2005 10 2 Politics 15 2.1 The governmental structure of the Islamic Republic 15 2.2 Key political figures in the Islamic Republic 19 2.3 Elections, 1979 – 2008 23 2.4 Ahmadinejad’s policies, priorities and popularity 25 2.5 The disputed 2009 Presidential election and its aftermath 29 The campaign 31 Official results 33 Reactions inside Iran 36 International reactions 38 Implications 40 3 Human Rights 43 3.1 Overview 43 3.2 The political and legal framework 46 3.3 Human rights in practice 48 Freedom of expression and freedom of the press 48 Freedom of assembly 49 Criminal justice and the rights of detainees 49 The death penalty 51 Torture 53 The treatment of ethnic and religious minorities 54 The treatment of women and homosexuals 58 1 RESEARCH PAPER 09/92 4 Economy 61 4.1 Iran’s economy in the world 61 4.2 Key economic indicators 61 4.3 An overview of Iranian economic policy 65 4.4 Development assistance 68 4.5 Trade 71 4.6 Sanctions 74 4.7 Energy resources 81 5 Foreign policy 84 5.1 Key determinants of Iranian foreign policy 84 Historical experience 84 Persian nationalism 89 Revolutionary Islam 91 Economic factors 93 5.2 Decision-making in Iranian foreign policy 97 5.3 Phases of Iranian foreign policy since 1979 101 Rafsanjani and the “era of reconstruction”: 1989 – 1997 102 Khatami and the rise of reformism: 1997 – 2005 103 Ahmadinejad and the return of nationalism: 2005 – present 105 6 Nuclear programme 108 6.1 Iran and the Non-Proliferation Treaty 108 6.2 Iran’s Nuclear Programme 110 Origins and early development 110 The 2002 revelations and moves towards transparency, 2003 – 2005 111 Referral to the UN Security Council, February 2006 114 The E3+3 proposal and UN Security Council resolution 1696 115 UN Security Council resolutions 1737 and 1747 116 IAEA ‘Work Plan’ 119 UN Security Council resolutions 1803 and 1835 121 6.3 Developments in 2009 122 Obama and a “new beginning” with Iran 122 The August 2009 IAEA report and Iran’s proposals 127 New revelations about Iran’s nuclear programme 129 2 RESEARCH PAPER 09/92 The Geneva Meeting 130 The November IAEA report 132 The IAEA Board of Governors resolution and the threat of new sanctions 134 7 Conventional military capabilities 136 7.1 Iranian Defence Expenditure 137 7.2 Regular Armed Forces 138 7.3 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps 140 7.4 Procurement Priorities 143 7.5 Ballistic Missile Programme 145 Glossary 149 Appendix 1: Selected Bibliography 150 Appendix 2: 155 Key economic indicators 155 Appendix 3: Maps of Iran 156 3 RESEARCH PAPER 09/92 Summary 2009 was a year of anniversaries for Iran: thirty years since the Islamic Revolution of February 1979 toppled the Shah, twenty-one years since the end of its devastating conflict with Iraq, and twenty years since the death of the revolution’s iconic leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Yet, for all its historical significance, 2009 emerged as a significant year in the history of the Islamic Republic in its own right. The disputed election of 12 June 2009, which saw the re- election of the radical, neo-conservative Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president amid widespread popular protests and accusations of vast electoral fraud, resulted in the most serious internal challenge to the regime’s authority since its foundation, with some commentators suggesting that the theocracy had been shaken to the core, opening potentially irreparable rifts within the governing elite. Despite the protests and repression which followed Ahmadinejad’s re-election, the politics of Iran is not a simple conflict between the people and the mullahs. Instead, for all its flaws, the election revealed the factional disputes, ideological divides and personal rivalries that, along with the Islamic Republic’s inherent complexities and contradictions, continue to characterise Iranian politics. Ahmadinejad’s presidency, as a whole, has signalled the emergence of a new generation of staunch conservatives and strident ideologues determined to return Iran to the “roots of the revolution” at home and inject a new, strident and defiant voice in foreign affairs. But, as the candidacy of Mir Hossein Mousavi demonstrated, reformists remain a political force within the Islamic Republic. 2009 was also a significant year in Iran’s foreign relations. After the vilification of the Islamic Republic as part of the “axis of evil” by the United States under the Bush Administration, Iran’s clerical rulers were confronted by a new US President committed to pursuing a new beginning in Washington’s relations with Tehran and to engaging the regime in a constructive dialogue. Likewise, 2009 was an important year for Iran’s nuclear programme. In September 2009, new revelations about the Islamic Republic’s clandestine nuclear activities – the construction of a new uranium enrichment facility near the holy city of Qom, hidden from IAEA inspectors – and Tehran’s continuing failure to comply with its international obligations raised the prospect of new UN sanctions, to which Ahmadinejad responded by announcing a dramatic expansion of Iran’s nuclear programme. 2009 was, therefore, a momentous year for Iran politically and diplomatically, and, looking ahead, potentially a defining one for the Islamic Republic. Yet despite the international attention receives, Iran defies straightforward characterisation and easy explanation. The Islamic Republic, with its factional politics and complex foreign relations, remains enigmatic. This paper provides an introduction to the Islamic Republic of Iran, its politics, economics, foreign and defence policies, and its nuclear programme. It seeks to demystify the clerical regime, provide an insight into the theocracy’s goals and ambitions and its factions, debates, rivalries and policies. Chapter One provides an introduction to Iran, its people and geography, as well as key facts and figures about the country. It also provides a brief historical overview of Iran since the early twentieth century, from the beginning of the Pahlavi dynasty to the re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the consolidation of power by Iran’s new generation of radical, principalist neo-conservatives.