Iran, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
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Hezbollah's Syrian Quagmire
Hezbollah’s Syrian Quagmire BY MATTHEW LEVITT ezbollah – Lebanon’s Party of God – is many things. It is one of the dominant political parties in Lebanon, as well as a social and religious movement catering first and fore- Hmost (though not exclusively) to Lebanon’s Shi’a community. Hezbollah is also Lebanon’s largest militia, the only one to maintain its weapons and rebrand its armed elements as an “Islamic resistance” in response to the terms of the Taif Accord, which ended Lebanon’s civil war and called for all militias to disarm.1 While the various wings of the group are intended to complement one another, the reality is often messier. In part, that has to do with compartmen- talization of the group’s covert activities. But it is also a factor of the group’s multiple identities – Lebanese, pan-Shi’a, pro-Iranian – and the group’s multiple and sometimes competing goals tied to these different identities. Hezbollah insists that it is Lebanese first, but in fact, it is an organization that always acts out of its self-interests above its purported Lebanese interests. According to the U.S. Treasury Department, Hezbollah also has an “expansive global network” that “is sending money and operatives to carry out terrorist attacks around the world.”2 Over the past few years, a series of events has exposed some of Hezbollah’s covert and militant enterprises in the region and around the world, challenging the group’s standing at home and abroad. Hezbollah operatives have been indicted for the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri by the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) in The Hague,3 arrested on charges of plotting attacks in Nigeria,4 and convicted on similar charges in Thailand and Cyprus.5 Hezbollah’s criminal enterprises, including drug running and money laundering from South America to Africa to the Middle East, have been targeted by law enforcement and regulatory agen- cies. -
10 Years of Eu Counter-Terrorism
A DECADE OF EU COUNTER-TERRORISM AND INTELLIGENCE: A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT INTRODUCTION Dr Javier Argomaniz (University of St Andrews), Dr OldrichBures (Metropolitan University Prague) & Dr Christian Kaunert (University of Salford & European University Institute Florence) The Treaty on the European Union (EU) stipulates that one of the key objectives of the Union is to provide citizens with a high level of safety within an Area of Freedom, Security and Justice (AFSJ). Given the fact that the fight against terrorism is a prominent aspect of this general objective, it is remarkable that, in spite of its political relevance and decade-long history, it has only relatively recently received due attention in the academic community1. Only a handful of post-9/11 edited volumes and special issues have focused on specific aspects of the EU counterterrorism efforts2 and initial monographs on the subject have only been relatively recently published by the three editors behind this special issue: Argomaniz3 has produced a theoretically informed assessment of the coherence of the EU response, Bures4 has examined the extent to which the EU can offer an added 1 A selection of relevant contributions would include: Monica den Boer and JörgMonar, ‘Keynote Article: 11 September and the Challenge of Global Terrorism to the EU as a Security Actor’, Journal of Common Market Studies, 40/4 (2002), pp. 11-28; John Occhipinti, The Politics of EU Police Cooperation: Towards a European FBI?(Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2003); Edwin Bakker ‘Differences in Terrorist Threat Perceptions in Europe’, in DieterMahncke and JörgMonar (eds.) International Terrorism.A European Response to a Global Threat? (Brussels: P.I.E Peter Lang, 2006); Daniel KeohaneThe EU and counter-terrorism (London: CER, 2005); DoronZimmermann, D., “The European Union and Post-9/11 Counterterrorism: A Reappraisal”, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 29/1, (2006),pp. -
Iran's Gray Zone Strategy
Iran’s Gray Zone Strategy Cornerstone of its Asymmetric Way of War By Michael Eisenstadt* ince the creation of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Iran has distinguished itself (along with Russia and China) as one of the world’s foremost “gray zone” actors.1 For nearly four decades, however, the United States has struggled to respond effectively to this asymmetric “way of war.” Washington has often Streated Tehran with caution and granted it significant leeway in the conduct of its gray zone activities due to fears that U.S. pushback would lead to “all-out” war—fears that the Islamic Republic actively encourages. Yet, the very purpose of this modus operandi is to enable Iran to pursue its interests and advance its anti-status quo agenda while avoiding escalation that could lead to a wider conflict. Because of the potentially high costs of war—especially in a proliferated world—gray zone conflicts are likely to become increasingly common in the years to come. For this reason, it is more important than ever for the United States to understand the logic underpinning these types of activities, in all their manifestations. Gray Zone, Asymmetric, and Hybrid “Ways of War” in Iran’s Strategy Gray zone warfare, asymmetric warfare, and hybrid warfare are terms that are often used interchangeably, but they refer neither to discrete forms of warfare, nor should they be used interchangeably—as they often (incor- rectly) are. Rather, these terms refer to that aspect of strategy that concerns how states employ ways and means to achieve national security policy ends.2 Means refer to the diplomatic, informational, military, economic, and cyber instruments of national power; ways describe how these means are employed to achieve the ends of strategy. -
Iranian Support for Terrorism
OUTLAW REGIME: A CHRONICLE OF IRAN’S DESTRUCTIVE ACTIVITIES Iran Action Group U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE “America will not be held hostage to nuclear blackmail.” PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP, MAY 2018 In recognition of the increasing menace posed by the Iranian regime, President Trump announced a new strategy to address the full range of the regime’s destructive actions. OUTLAW REGIME: A CHRONICLE OF IRAN’S DESTRUCTIVE ACTIVITIES A Letter From Executive Chapter One: 4 Secretary of State 6 Summary 8 Iran’s Support Michael R. Pompeo for Terrorism 18 Chapter Two: 22 Chapter Three: 26 Chapter Four: Iran’s Missile Illicit Financial Iran’s Threat to Program Activities in Iran Maritime Security Chapter Five: Chapter Six: Chapter Seven: 30 Iran’s Threat to 34 Human Rights 40 Environmental Cybersecurity Abuses in Iran Exploitation AP PHOTO OUTLAW REGIME: A CHRONICLE OF IRAN’S DESTRUCTIVE ACTIVITIES | 3 A LETTER FROM U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE MICHAEL R. POMPEO I am pleased to release the State Department’s new report detailing the scope of the Iranian regime’s destructive behavior at home and abroad on the eve of the Islamic Revolution’s 40th anniversary. On May 8, 2018, President Donald J. Trump announced his decision to cease U.S. participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly referred to as the Iran deal. The Iran deal was proving to be a failed strategic bet that fell short of protecting the American people or our allies from the potential of an Iranian nuclear weapon. The futility of entrusting our long term security to an agreement that will quickly expire was underscored by the recent bombshell that Iran had secretly preserved its past nuclear weapons research after the implementation of the JCPOA. -
Iran's Anti-Western
MENU Policy Analysis / PolicyWatch 3028 Iran’s Anti-Western ‘Blueprint’ for the Next Fifty Years by Mehdi Khalaji Oct 24, 2018 Also available in Arabic / Farsi ABOUT THE AUTHORS Mehdi Khalaji Mehdi Khalaji, a Qom-trained Shiite theologian, is the Libitzky Family Fellow at The Washington Institute. Brief Analysis Khamenei’s latest guidelines for Iranian culture and governance focus on resisting any efforts to reform the regime’s decisionmaking tendencies. n October 14, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei released a draft of the “Islamic-Iranian Blueprint for Progress,” O a document that outlines his vision for the next half century. The final version of this blueprint is not expected to be released for months, so publicizing a draft now may be an attempt to address some of Tehran’s current difficulties, including increased U.S. pressure, consecutive economic shocks, and mounting public suspicion about the regime’s durability and legitimacy. At their core, the document’s prescriptions reveal Khamenei’s two-pronged vision for achieving regional, even global, supremacy: first, total Islamization of all facets of life, which means continuing to resist Western notions of international order, politics, and culture; second, the use of advanced scientific achievements to become technologically self-reliant. In short, the regime seems to be placing its bets on an even deeper marriage of fundamentalist ideology and modern technology. A WARNING TO THE WEST I n addition to asking Iran’s academic and clerical establishment for feedback on the blueprint, Khamenei has ordered government branches and regime decisionmaking bodies to turn the document’s goals into workable operational plans. -
From Criminals to Terrorists and Back?
FROM CRIMINALS TO TERRORISTS AND BACK? KICK-OFF REPORT www.globsec.org AUTHORS Kacper Rekawek, Head of Defence and Security Programme, GLOBSEC Policy Institute Stanislav Matejka, Junior Research Fellow, Defence and Security Programme, GLOBSEC Policy Institute Martina Babikova, GLOBSEC Policy Institute Tomas Nagy, Research Fellow, Defence and Security Programme, GLOBSEC Policy Institute Jakub Rafay, GLOBSEC Policy Institute Design by Peter Verček, GLOBSEC The following distinguished partners were consulted in the process of preparation of this report. The sole responsibility for the content of this publication lies with the authors. • Austria - Daniela Pisoiu • Bulgaria - Rositsa Dzhekova, Nadya Stoynova • France - Olivier de France, Damien Saverot, Pierre Colomina • Germany - Matenia Sirseloudi • Greece - Eleni Fotou • Ireland - Orla Lynch • Italy - Marco Lombardi, Giovanni Giacalone, Nicolò Spagna • Netherlands - Jessica Sciarone, Bart Schuurman • Spain - Fernando Reinares, Carola García Calvo, Álvaro Vicente • United Kingdom - John Morrison, Aleksandra Łojek The project is funded under PMI IMPACT, a global grant initiative of Philip Morris International to support projects against illegal trade. GLOBSEC is fully independent in implementing the project and has editorial responsibility for all views and opinions expressed herein. CONTENTS PROJECT SUMMARY 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 FROM CRIMINALS TO TERRORISTS AND BACK? 10 INTRODUCING CRIME-TERROR NEXUS 10 RESEARCHING THE CRIME-TERROR NEXUS: CHALLENGES 12 RESEARCHING THE NEXUS: WHAT IS NEXT? -
Surprise, Intelligence Failure, and Mass Casualty Terrorism
SURPRISE, INTELLIGENCE FAILURE, AND MASS CASUALTY TERRORISM by Thomas E. Copeland B.A. Political Science, Geneva College, 1991 M.P.I.A., University of Pittsburgh, 1992 Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of The Graduate School of Public and International Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Pittsburgh 2006 UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH FACULTY OF ARTS AND SCIENCES This dissertation was presented by Thomas E. Copeland It was defended on April 12, 2006 and approved by Davis Bobrow, Ph.D. Donald Goldstein, Ph.D. Dennis Gormley Phil Williams, Ph.D. Dissertation Director ii © 2006 Thomas E. Copeland iii SURPRISE, INTELLIGENCE FAILURE, AND MASS CASUALTY TERRORISM Thomas E. Copeland, PhD University of Pittsburgh, 2006 This study aims to evaluate whether surprise and intelligence failure leading to mass casualty terrorism are inevitable. It explores the extent to which four factors – failures of public policy leadership, analytical challenges, organizational obstacles, and the inherent problems of warning information – contribute to intelligence failure. This study applies existing theories of surprise and intelligence failure to case studies of five mass casualty terrorism incidents: World Trade Center 1993; Oklahoma City 1995; Khobar Towers 1996; East African Embassies 1998; and September 11, 2001. A structured, focused comparison of the cases is made using a set of thirteen probing questions based on the factors above. The study concludes that while all four factors were influential, failures of public policy leadership contributed directly to surprise. Psychological bias and poor threat assessments prohibited policy makers from anticipating or preventing attacks. Policy makers mistakenly continued to use a law enforcement approach to handling terrorism, and failed to provide adequate funding, guidance, and oversight of the intelligence community. -
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 14: NIGHT of DESTRUCTION September 11
INSIDE THIS EDITION SEPTEMBER 14 – NIGHT OF DESTRUCTION SEPTEMBER 27 – SUPER SHOE WEEKEND STARTS OCTOBER 26 – AWARDS BANQUET PHOTO MEDLEY – RACING FAMILIES September 11, 2019 SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 14 THE LEGENDARY NIGHT OF DESTRUCTION w SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 14: NIGHT OF DESTRUCTION This Saturday. The Legendary Night of Destruction. We’ve got PROGRAM INFORMATION fan favorites: Monster Trucks . Bus Races . Trailer Races . Spectator Drags . Mini FWD Enduro . Demolition Derby. We Free Bus Rides 5:00 – 7:00 haven’t seen a Jet Car do its thing in years, but you’ll see (and Adults $20 hear) one this year. And then there is the new: Double-decker Youth 6-12 $10 Stacker Cars (first time in Michigan) . Scarecrow World Record Kids 5 & Under FREE Limo Jump plus another new Scarecrow stunt (they are never Program Starts 7:30 PM dull!) Then we close out the night with FIREWORKS!! Family fun awaits. We will see you at the 2019 Night of Destruction. w Clockwise: Monster trucks from a past Night of Destruction; cars with trailers go for the win while going around piles of debris (“ground clutter” as announcer, Jason Seltzer says); Scarecrow flies through several campers at last year’s Night of Destruction; fans watch the action; the Demolition Derby from the Red, White & Boom; the free bus rides are a big hit and the drivers sometimes get a bit competitive with one another; the Zoo Stacker cars will make their first Michigan appearance at this year’s night of Destruction. FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 27 – SUPER SHOE WEEKEND STARTS There were 388 campsites available to reserve in advance for Super Shoe weekend (no need to run in the Footrace!) By publication time for this edition of Track Talk (Tuesday, September 10), there were only 11 of the 388 remaining. -
The Leader's Response to a Letter by Hamas Chief, Ismail Haniyeh - 5 /Apr/ 2018
The Leader's response to a letter by Hamas chief, Ismail Haniyeh - 5 /Apr/ 2018 In response to a recent letter by Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the political bureau of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei underscored the perennial stances of the Islamic Republic in full support of Palestine and its holy warriors. He said the remedy for the issue of Palestine lies in the reinforcement of the resisting and unyielding front in the world of Islam and the intensification of the campaign against the usurping regime and its supporters, stressing, “Moving toward negotiations with the deceptive, mendacious and usurping regime is an unforgivable mistake that will delay the victory of the Palestinian nation and will bring nothing but harm to the oppressed nation.” The full text of the letter by the Leader of the Islamic Revolution is as follows: In the Name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate (Arabic Prayers) Praise be to Allah, Lord of the Worlds, and prayers and peace be upon our master, the great and faithful Messenger (the Prophet Muhammad) and his immaculate Household and his ennobled companions and those who followed them with good deeds until the Day of Judgement. Dear striving brother, Dr. Ismail Haniyeh, may your successes continue I begin the letter with these luminous words of God, which may seem to have been descended upon us and you this very day: “Relent not in pursuit of the enemy. If ye are suffering, lo! they suffer even as ye suffer and ye hope from Allah that for which they cannot hope. -
U.S. Military Engagement in the Broader Middle East
U.S. MILITARY ENGAGEMENT IN THE BROADER MIDDLE EAST JAMES F. JEFFREY MICHAEL EISENSTADT U.S. MILITARY ENGAGEMENT IN THE BROADER MIDDLE EAST JAMES F. JEFFREY MICHAEL EISENSTADT THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY WWW.WASHINGTONINSTITUTE.ORG The opinions expressed in this Policy Focus are those of the author and not necessarily those of The Washington Institute, its Board of Trustees, or its Board of Advisors. Policy Focus 143, April 2016 All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publica- tion may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing fromthe publisher. ©2016 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 1111 19th Street NW, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20036 Design: 1000colors Photo: An F-16 from the Egyptian Air Force prepares to make contact with a KC-135 from the 336th ARS during in-flight refueling training. (USAF photo by Staff Sgt. Amy Abbott) Contents Acknowledgments V I. HISTORICAL OVERVIEW OF U.S. MILITARY OPERATIONS 1 James F. Jeffrey 1. Introduction to Part I 3 2. Basic Principles 5 3. U.S. Strategy in the Middle East 8 4. U.S. Military Engagement 19 5. Conclusion 37 Notes, Part I 39 II. RETHINKING U.S. MILITARY STRATEGY 47 Michael Eisenstadt 6. Introduction to Part II 49 7. American Sisyphus: Impact of the Middle Eastern Operational Environment 52 8. Disjointed Strategy: Aligning Ways, Means, and Ends 58 9. -
Three Conquests of Canaan
ÅA Wars in the Middle East are almost an every day part of Eero Junkkaala:of Three Canaan Conquests our lives, and undeniably the history of war in this area is very long indeed. This study examines three such wars, all of which were directed against the Land of Canaan. Two campaigns were conducted by Egyptian Pharaohs and one by the Israelites. The question considered being Eero Junkkaala whether or not these wars really took place. This study gives one methodological viewpoint to answer this ques- tion. The author studies the archaeology of all the geo- Three Conquests of Canaan graphical sites mentioned in the lists of Thutmosis III and A Comparative Study of Two Egyptian Military Campaigns and Shishak and compares them with the cities mentioned in Joshua 10-12 in the Light of Recent Archaeological Evidence the Conquest stories in the Book of Joshua. Altogether 116 sites were studied, and the com- parison between the texts and the archaeological results offered a possibility of establishing whether the cities mentioned, in the sources in question, were inhabited, and, furthermore, might have been destroyed during the time of the Pharaohs and the biblical settlement pe- riod. Despite the nature of the two written sources being so very different it was possible to make a comparative study. This study gives a fresh view on the fierce discus- sion concerning the emergence of the Israelites. It also challenges both Egyptological and biblical studies to use the written texts and the archaeological material togeth- er so that they are not so separated from each other, as is often the case. -
The Khobar Towers Bombing Incident
PRESS RELEASE House National Security Committee Floyd D. Spence, Chairman Contact: Maureen Cragin FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Ryan Vaart August 14, 1996 (202) 225-2539 STATEMENT OF CHAIRMAN FLOYD D. SPENCE ON THE REPORT ON THE BOMBING OF KHOBAR TOWERS “In the wake of the June 25 bombing of the American compound at Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia, the House Committee on National Security sent a delegation of professional staff members to Saudi Arabia to conduct a preliminary investigation of the incident. “Although the professionalism and courage of the men and women who suffered this terrible disaster is apparent and should be a source of pride for all Americans, the bombing raises issues of intelligence failures and operational deficiencies that at least suggest that military leaders and policymakers were unaware of the potential risks that U.S. service personnel faced in Saudi Arabia. “First, as the report indicates, the performance of the troops living in Khobar Towers and stationed in the Dhahran area was superb. As a result of the rapid reaction of the Air Force Special Police who observed the bomb-laden truck and immediately began to evacuate the building, as well as the efforts of doctors, medical personnel and soldiers to save lives, a much larger tragedy was almost certainly averted. “But individual professionalism and heroism during the bombing cannot obscure larger problems that may have contributed to the unpreparedness of U.S. troops in the face of a serious terrorist threat. Intelligence failures left the military personnel in Khobar Towers, as well as the 4404th wing’s leaders, largely unaware of the magnitude of the threat they faced.