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Quic Research Report May 23rd, 2016 QUIC RESEARCH REPORT Consumers & Healthcare Julie Vincent Jon Allion Andrei Florescu Liam Smith Mondelez (NASDAQ: MDLZ) Stock Pitch A Stock as Sweet as it’s Oreo Cookies Introduction Mondelez is the market leader in the snack food segment. With a strong brand portfolio that is well-positioned to capitalize on the sector’s future growth, we believe that Mondelez will see significant upside in the years to come. By adding Mondelez to our U.S portfolio, we will be exposed to the lucrative snack foods segment and benefit from their strong financial position. Summary - Mondelez operates in the global snack industry, competing with names such as PepsiCo and Conagra Foods - Mondelez has a wide range of brand offerings, led by its seven “power brands”, each garnering over $1 billion in annual sales - The company has begun to focus its investments to emerging markets, which grow at fast rates while being driven by increasing consumer demand for snacks - The company’s increased focus on effective capital deployment will increase margins and a result bolster company profitability QUIC Research Reports focus on emerging investment themes that - Recent e-commerce expansion and a stronger focus on healthy affect current portfolio companies products serve as strong catalysts for the company and companies under coverage. The information in this document is for EDUCATIONAL and NON-COMMERCIAL use only and is not intended to constitute specific legal, accounting, financial or tax advice for any individual. In no event will QUIC, its members or directors, or Queen’s University be liable to you or anyone else for any loss or damages whatsoever (including direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, exemplary or punitive damages) resulting from the use of this document, or reliance on the information or content found within this document. The information may not be reproduced or republished in any part without the prior written consent of QUIC and Queen’s University. QUIC is not in the business of advising or holding themselves out as being in the business of advising. Many factors may affect the applicability of any statement or comment that appear in our documents to an individual's particular circumstances. © Queen’s University 2016 QUIC Research Report May 23rd, 2016 Mondelez Stock Pitch (NASDAQ: MDLZ) Table of Contents Introduction 1 Company Overview 3 Industry Overview 4 Investment Thesis I: Strong Brand Profile 5 Investment Thesis II: Emerging Markets 6 Investment Thesis III: Margin Expansion 7 Catalysts and Risks 8 Portfolio Fit 8 Valuation 9 Appendix 11 References 12 May 23rd, 2016 QUIC Research Report May 23rd, 2016 Mondelez Stock Pitch (NASDAQ: MDLZ) Company Overview Mondelez’s powerful presence in the snacking Management is in the midst of implementing an category is led by 7 billion-dollar “Power Brands” aggressive growth strategy, which it hopes will help earning 68% of the company’s revenues. These to increase its competitive advantage in the ever- brands include Cadbury, Cadbury Dairy Milk, and growing space. Management hopes to grow Milka chocolate; LU, Nabisco, and Oreo biscuits; organic revenue at or above the company growth and Trident gum. Mondelez’s Power Brands benefit rate, achieve operating income of high single digits from significant brand loyalty resulting in operating (and double digits where possible) across all brands margins that are 1 to 2% higher than other brands. and double digit constant currency growth. Power Brands also grow faster than the company average, therefore Mondelez plans to have them contribute to over 80% of total sales over time. EXHIBIT 1 Mondelez is considered the worldwide leader in Mondelez Popular Brands biscuits, chocolate and candy, and holds a dominate position in gum. Its competitive advantage is that it sells snack items in complimentary food segments. This results in cost leverage, capability sharing and commercial marketing benefits. Moreover, it is able to take advantage of the vast distribution networks some of their subsidiaries have. Mondelez has operations in approximately 80 countries around the world and distributes its products in over 165. EXHIBIT 2 EXHIBIT 3 Revenue Segmentation by Geography 2015A Revenue Segmentation by Product 2015A 10% 6% 9% 34% 40% 16% 16% 14% 30% 26% Europe North America Latin America Biscuits Chocolate Gum and Candy Asia Pacific EEMEA Beverages Cheese and Grocery Source: Company Reports Source: Company Reports May 23rd, 2016 3 QUIC Research Report May 23rd, 2016 Mondelez Stock Pitch (NASDAQ: MDLZ) Industry Overview Over the past 5 years, the snack food industry has There are four main drivers of the industry: per benefited from increased demand. This comes as a capita disposable income, the healthy eating index, result of a strengthened economy, leading to the price of corn and the trade-weighted index. higher discretionary spending levels. EXHIBIT 5 The industry is expected to grow at a 3.7% CAGR Percentage of Consumers Who Said They Ate over the next 3 years, with total revenue expected These Snacks in the Last 30 Days to exceed $40B in 2016. Food Percentage The biggest headwind for producers in the snack is Chocolate 64% the ever-changing tastes and preferences of consumers. With many consumers beginning to Fresh Fruit 62% embrace healthier lifestyles, snack food companies are feeling the need to offer new health-conscious Vegetables 52% items. Non-sugary snacks closely aligned with meal-replacement foods are showing the strongest Cookies / Biscuits 51% growth of all areas, proving the movement by Bread / Sandwich 50% consumers to healthier alternatives. Yogurt 50% It is expected that improving economic conditions throughout North America and Europe will lead to Cheese 46% increased demand for premium snacks. As such, companies have begun producing organic and Chips / Crisps 44% whole food snack options to bring to the Nuts / Seeds 41`% marketplace. Gum / Ice Cream 33% EXHIBIT 4 Source: Nielsen Geographic Snack Consumption Breakdown Currently, there are three main companies 100% operating in this industry: Mondelez, PepsiCo and 17% 17% 20% ConAgra foods. Going forward, PepsiCo poses the 30% 28% 80% largest threat to Mondelez because of their 17% portfolio of household brands: Quaker’s, Lay’s, 31% 25% Dorito’s and Fritos. 17% 60% 26% 33% As of 2014, confections (which includes sugary 19% sweets such as chocolate, hard candy and gum) 40% 24% 32% 20% represented the largest sales contribution in Europe and the Middle East/Africa. Salty snacks were 20% 33% 36% favourites in North America, representing roughly 28% 24% 23% one-fifth of all snack consumption. Refrigerated 0% snacks were consumed the most in Asia-Pacific, Latin America Asia Pacific EEMEA Europe North America while cookies and snack cakes were best sellers in Confection Salty Cookies and Cakes Latin America. Refrigerated Fruits and Vegetables Source: Nielsen May 23rd, 2016 4 QUIC Research Report May 23rd, 2016 Mondelez Stock Pitch (NASDAQ: MDLZ) Investment Thesis I: Strong Brand Profile Mondelez’s powerful presence in the snacking pricing dynamics between Mondelez and their category is led by 7 billion-dollar “Power Brands” competitors are beginning to normalize and earning 68% of the company’s revenues. These improve further into 2016. Mondelez has one of the brands include Cadbury, Cadbury Dairy Milk, and lowest exposure to private labels out of the Milka chocolate; LU, Nabisco, and Oreo biscuits; competition with just 10.6% of their portfolio and Trident gum. Mondelez’s Power Brands benefit composing of private label brands. This means that from significant brand loyalty resulting in operating short-term increases in their cost base poses less of margins that are 1 to 2% higher than other brands. a risk, and Mondelez will continue to benefit from Power Brands also grow faster than the company the strong brand loyalty which has been built over average, therefore Mondelez plans to have them many decades. contribute to over 80% of total sales over time. EXHIBIT 6 EXHIBIT 7 Leading Brands by Category Brand Exposure to Private Labels vs. Peers 19.5% 20% 16.6% 14.6% 15% 13.2% 13.1% 11.9% 10.6% 10.2% 10% 5% Source: Company Reports 0% In response to a shift in consumer preferences KRFT MKC CAG SJM CPB GIS MDLZ K towards healthier snacks, Mondelez expects 50% of Source: Bernstein its product portfolio to be composed of “Well- Being” offerings by 2020, up from 35% today, In order to focus on the core snacks portfolio and aiming to become the global market leader in boost growth, Mondelez engaged in a spin-off of better-for-you snack options. The recent U.S release its coffee business in 2015 with D.E Master Blenders of Good Thins is the company’s first new snack to create Jacobs Douwe Egberts (JDE). The new brand in over a decade and showcases their ability company, of which Mondelez has a 43.5% equity to provide relevant, healthier snacks at competitive stake in, will leverage both company’s share of the prices. In order to retain future market share for the coffee market and cost savings are expected to Power Brands, Mondelez is focusing on more total $1.5 billion by 2018. JDE sells coffee through aggressive marketing strategies (expected to climb industry leading brands such as Gevalia and Jacobs to 10% of sales in 2018, a gain of 2%) and simpler, which achieve similar brand loyalty to Mondelez’s more nutritious ingredients. Power Brands. Mondelez’s brands have seen shelf-space reduction Mondelez has the advantage of product offerings in at some retailers over the past 2 years as they took complementary food categories, resulting in cost a price increase due to rising input costs earlier leverage and capability sharing. For example, in than competitors such as Mars and Nestle. These 2012 Mondelez launched Stride in China using its companies have hedges on their coca purchases distribution network in biscuits.
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