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So Europe Ends at the Bosporus?

There is one largely unheralded, and outside France (0.1 percent) have been anemic. Yet its own frontiers probably little mourned, Turkey’s GDP is growing at 2.3 percent. casualty of the European crisis of confi - While there are still “candidate mem - dence—Turkey. In its decades-long aspira - bers” of the EU, who now seem quite likely tion to become a member of the European to remain in that status for the indefinite community, this nation on the fringes of the future, none outranks Turkey in the metrics continent’s southeastern frontier has played that should make its membership so com - the part of the poor little orphan boy, nose pelling. Indeed, there is a certain irony that pressed firmly against the glass shop win - Greece, rather than Turkey, was invited into dow filled with sweets. Somehow, Turkey, the club that it has now threatened to bring despite its most valiant efforts, has never down. The two nearly came to blows repeat - managed to find a way inside. edly over the divided island nation of This may no longer matter. Turkey ap - Cyprus —now a member of the very union pears to have all but given up on its aspira - that Turkey has been so desperate to join. tions and is finally prepared to cast its lot The case of Turkey is compelling because with the Middle East—neighboring nations it reflects a larger theme. What makes a bloc it’s traded with, even ruled, for centuries. If like the European Union thrive, or even there was any more persuasive evidence of function effectively? And is the organization this new reality, it was Turkey’s sudden and of the world by blocs the future, or merely a dramatic confrontation over the Gaza block - brief historical hiccup that is now on the ade with Israel, whose own fate is so closely verge of unraveling, perhaps catastrophically? bound to Europe and America. The central question facing the Euro - pean Union as it stares down the barrel of Istanbul or Constantinople potential fiscal collapse isn’t which nation When I landed in Istanbul for the first will fail next, but which nations should not time, more than 30 years ago, it was quite have been invited in the first place. Growth clear that I was not in Europe anymore. in both Portugal and Spain has stagnated, Minarets and domed mosques dominated and their debt is nearing junk level. Greece’s the skyline. Despite all warnings, I got lost growth rate shrank by 0.8 percent, and the in the Great Bazaar, the Kapali Çarsi or growth rates in Spain (1 percent), Portugal Covered Market—a sprawling warren of (0.08 percent), Germany (0.2 percent) and tiny alleys and more than 4,000 stalls

So Europe Ends at the Bosporus? 91 packed with the mysteries of the East, from nal break with the past? The Hat Law of centuries-old Korans and intricately-woven 1925 introduced the use of the Western- carpets to huge sacks of exotic spices, glazed style fedora, banning the ancient fez. tiles and pottery, copper and brassware, Atatürk delighted in parading through the leather, cotton and wool clothing, carved streets in a sparkling straw Panama. meerschaum pipes and alabaster bookends. While Atatürk sought to build a secular, When the Sublime Porte of the Ottoman westernized state, he by no means intended sultans ruled half of the known world, this to disestablish the dominant religion of Is - capital city was known as Constantinople, lam. Rather, he sought to create a nation and it held the bulk of southeastern Europe, where all religions would be tolerated. the Middle East and North Africa in its There’s no doubt that this is where Turkey’s sway, its reign stretching into Spain and problems with Europe began. Turkey is the Portugal, its armies spreading fear from the only Islamic nation with European aspira - Balkans to the very gates of Vienna. But the tions. In that sense, Europe has always con - sultan chose the wrong side in the First sidered the Bosporus—the strait that flows World War. His empire was already crum - past Istanbul and serves as the entrance to bling across Mesopotamia and North Africa, the Black Sea —the end of the continent. and the Treaty of San Remo, an offshoot of Most of Turkey is on the far side, closer in so the Paris negotiations that led to the Treaty many ways to the Middle East that it once of Versailles, put a final stake through the ruled than the Europe it now aspires to join. heart of the Ottoman Empire. The Allied leaders created several nations carved from its remains: Iraq, Syria, Palestine, Lebanon, Already Among Us eventually Saudi Arabia, and one core coun - The second set of obstacles obstructing try called Turkey. This territory and its lim - Turkey’s acceptance into Europe are the gas - ited resources—vastly reduced from the tarbeiter . European nations might have effec - once grand empire—would, the Allied lead - tively overlooked Turkey’s Islamic leanings if ers hoped, be forever weakened. they hadn’t been thrust so directly, even in - As it happened, the Allies created a na - trusively, in their collective faces beginning a tion more viable, stable and independent half century ago. When large stretches of than any other in the region. It’s a tribute, in Europe —particularly its most economically part, to Turkish energy and persistence and and demographically dominant nation, Ger - the vision of one gifted leader, Mustafa Ke - many—began to run out of native workers mal Atatürk, who believed passionately in to fuel a post-World War II growth spurt, the virtues of democracy, secularism and the the solution was guest workers. At the start West. As Turkey’s first prime minister, then of the Wirtschaftswunder or economic miracle, president, Atatürk was determined to eradi - Germany signed guest worker agreements cate the last vestiges of the sultanate and set with Italy in 1955, followed by Greece in Turkey firmly on the path to prosperity and 1960 and Turkey a year later. Almost imme - success as a modern, secular democracy. The diately, there was an influx of largely un - Arabic alphabet was replaced by a Latinate skilled laborers. The Turks were the first Turkish version. Islamic and secular law were Muslims to arrive in great numbers, bring - clearly divorced, succeeded by a penal code ing their religion, language and customs modeled on Italian law and a civil code mod - with them. Today, there are at least 1.7 mil - eled on the Swiss. Women were freed from lion Turks in Germany who’ve retained their the veil and given full equality. And the fi - Turkish citizenship and another 1.2 million

92 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL • SUMMER 2010 ©Damien Glez who’ve become German citizens. The total, will. These were the fears when Turkey first including all those of ancestral Turkish de - formally applied for membership to the Eu - scent, may number 4 million. They comprise ropean Union on April 14, 1987. Today, the a nation within a nation, indeed a nation issue has become far more complex. larger than eight other member nations of First, there’s terrorism. Islamic commu - the EU. While most began by taking on the nities in Europe, especially their mosques menial jobs that Germans shunned—collect - and their madrassas, are increasingly being ing the garbage, digging ditches, pumping perceived as hotbeds of radical activism. gas, and cleaning factories, offices and While there is no evidence that Turks are homes—increasingly their sons and daugh - behind any terrorist actions—indeed the ters sought to work their way up the eco - secular nature of their homeland would sug - nomic food chain. Often, they moved from gest quite the contrary—the fear of terror - the faceless underclass to a far more visible— ism is an ever-present reality. and threatening—status. But within the last several months, eco - This was the situation under a treaty nomic imperatives have come to dominate that still required gastarbeiter to return to the dialogue. Northern Europe scarcely needs their home country after a year or two (few another drag on its tenuous recovery from the did, of course). Imagine what could happen global recession. But how real is such a fear? with such a nation legally within the walls Turkey’s growth rate is substantially higher of Europe—with a single passport, single than virtually any other nation in Europe. currency and virtually no barrier to move - While its unemployment is at 14.4 percent, ment or, for that matter, employment at Spain’s has hit 19.1 percent. At the same

So Europe Ends at the Bosporus? 93 time, Turkey’s private sector is thriving. Its today’s modern European Union. “Europe ISE stock market index has soared 57.8 per - will be born from this,” Schuman said in his cent in the past year, compared with 21 per - message unveiling the proposal, and edited cent for Germany’s benchmark DAX index by President Charles de Gaulle’s Planning and London’s FTSE, which edged up just Commissioner, Jean Monnet. Monnet went 17.4 percent in the same period. on to win the title, “father of a United Eu - By other measures, of course, Turkey is rope.” The vision shared by Monnet and still facing challenges—inflation hovers at Schuman was “a Europe which is solidly 10 percent and its trade deficit is signifi - united and constructed around a strong cant, especially with the EU. But this may framework. It will be a Europe where the simply mean that Turkey is an enormous standard of living will rise by grouping to - market for Europe’s still ailing factories — gether production and expanding markets, especially if it were safely inside the EU and thus encouraging the lowering of prices,” facing lower tariff barriers. Indeed, its vi - Schuman observed, concluding, quite pre - brant consumer market of 73 million people sciently, that “Europe will not be made all should be most attractive to EU manufac - at once, or according to a single plan. It will turers and retailers. be built through concrete achievements which first create a de facto solidarity.” Eu - rope has achieved all its initial aims, and Barriers Rising much more. The six core nations that For the moment at least, Europe is as large formed the ECSC —France, West Germany, as it is likely to become. It’s increasingly Italy, Belgium, Luxembourg and the popular to propose chucking some members Netherlands—would ultimately grow to 27 overboard to keep the whole European mon - countries, including four kingdoms and one etary system afloat. Beyond Portugal and grand duchy, stretching from Ireland to the Spain, there are some awfully weak sisters. Bosporus. The economies of Hungary and Ireland are Eventually, the EU began to welcome already contracting at 13.5 and 1.3 percent, nations on Europe’s periphery—states in - respectively. Slovenia has posted a feeble 0.1 cluding former members of the Warsaw percent growth rate, while Austria and Fin - Pact and the Soviet-dominated Comecon land show no growth at all. Candidate bloc, and, in the case of the Baltic Re - members of the EU will likely remain can - publics, even portions of the former Soviet didates for the foreseeable future, dismaying Union. At the same time, debates grew such fledgling democracies (and economies) within the original core states over whether as Croatia and Macedonia. these fragile economies were vigorous Still, the goal of a united Europe—from enough to be subsumed into a single trad - its earliest incarnation as the European Coal ing and, in time, currency bloc. The vast and Steel Community ( ECSC ) in the days fol - disparities between the potent industrial na - lowing World War II—was just that: unity. tions of northern Europe, the more agrarian First proposed by French Foreign Minister states of southern Europe and the fledgling Robert Schuman on May 9, 1950, in a economies of Eastern and Central Europe, speech at the Quai d’Orsay in Paris, the all needed to find some sort of equilibrium. ECSC was designed as a way to prevent fur - In December 1995, when the EU agreed to ther war between France and Germany, serv - move beyond common tariff and immigra - ing to unify Western Europe during the tion regimes to a single, unified currency. It Cold War while creating a foundation for was an attempt by Europe to assume its

94 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL • SUMMER 2010 place alongside the United States, with its shared a host of traits. Each of them— all but omnipotent dollar, the world’s pre - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia mier global currency; the OPEC nations and and the United Arab Emirates—was a major their universal currency (oil); the rising, oil producer and member of OPEC , which in - newly-freed empire of China and its renmin - cludes a number of non-Arab and non-Mid - bi; and the long-time powerhouse of Japan dle East nations. But in contrast to polyglot and the yen. For a time, this grand gesture Europe, the GCC members were all Arabic by Europe worked—but no longer, at least speaking and overwhelmingly Muslim. not now. In many respects the nations of the GCC The euro is in retreat, the dollar again is have far more in common with each other riding high, and China is being watched than do most members of the EU with their carefully from Wall Street and Threadneedle own neighbors. Beyond a common lan - to the Bahnhofstrasse for every indication guage, all have much the same tribal, about what it may do with its vast holdings Bedouin origins, virtually identical natural of both these global currencies and the debt in which they are denominated. At this moment, If Turkey has any alternative, at least, Europe needs no new it should look elsewhere, and members to throw fresh uncer - “ tainty into the minds of those face East rather than West. who trade and hold this cur - rency. resources and source of wealth (oil), sim”ilar topography and comparable rates of devel - Pressed Against Which Glass? opment and growth. All share common So what is Turkey, its nose pressed against challenges and threats—a theocratic Iran an increasingly clouded glass, to do? If it seeking to assert is dominance over the re - has any alternative, it should probably look gion; a powerful West anxious to preserve elsewhere, return to its roots, face East its access to the oil resources so vital to its rather than West, at the same time forsak - own economic viability; and the growing ing its traditionally close ties with Israel— Asian nations of China and India, anxious to the only Middle East nation to maintain assure their own access to the same sources such ties at all. Indeed, Turkey could have of wealth and expansion. quite a lot to gain by embracing —this time The GCC has considered a common cur - as a partner —the Arab world its predecessor rency from the moment of its creation. But once ruled. several intra-bloc frictions—like whether On May 25, 1981, the six Arab nations the central bank will be in Saudi Arabia or bordering the Persian Gulf signed an agree - the UAE—have slowed the process. And ment creating the Gulf Cooperation Council now, of course, the very stability of such (GCC ). There was a certain symmetry here— common currencies has been called into six members, all sharing a common geogra - question. In May, the bloc decided to push phy and contiguous heritage, banding to - off the proposed date for a common currency gether for purposes of joint economic ad - from 2010 to 2015, and may launch the vancement and, ultimately, security. It was project without two of its members, Oman the European Coal and Steel Community, a and the UAE. As Abdulrahman al-Attiyah, quarter century later and a world apart. All the GCC Secretary-General, observed the GCC

So Europe Ends at the Bosporus? 95 should draw some lessons from the Euro - size of Poland and half that of Turkey. The pean debt crisis. result is an average per capita income of Beyond the UAE and Oman, however, $28,720, just $4,000 below that of France, there are other nations waiting eagerly in and some $10,000 above Hungary and the wings to join up. Just as the EU has its Poland. All the strengths should be an enor - candidate members, including Turkey, so mous attraction to a potential candidate na - the GCC has Iraq and Yemen. Each brings tion like Turkey. enormous strengths and the potential for enormous tensions as well. Together, Yemen, with 23.6 million people, and Iraq, Turkish Challenges with 30.7 million, would dwarf their fellow Should it finally disabuse itself of its Euro - members. Iraq, with the world’s fourth pean aspirations and turn toward its Middle largest proven oil reserves, would add some East roots, Turkey brings along its own se - serious economic muscle, though following ries of challenges and opportunities. In years of torturous conflict, it is still the terms of scale, its $880 billion GDP and its scene of instabilities unlike any in current population of 73 million would nearly dou - GCC member states. Equally, Yemen is a na - ble the size of the GCC with a single stroke. tion torn by conflicts and Al Qaeda opera - But there are some serious differences and tions that pose an enormous threat to neigh - historic frictions that would also make such boring Arab nations. a union fraught. While Turkey is unques - What the GCC has demonstrated, howev - tionably an Islamic nation, the ancestral en - er, is that the ECSC was not the last organiza - slavement by the Sultanate of much of the tion to be based on the principles of supra - Arab world for six centuries still resonates. nationalism. Soon after its formation, the At the same time, Turkey would be the only GCC set forth a host of ambitious goals— nation within the GCC that fails to use the unified regulations that governed the Arabic alphabet—a significant obstacle, economies of member countries and their though clearly the EU has managed to suc - trade relations, as well as tourism, legisla - ceed, if not always thrive, despite its multi- tion and administration; growth in science lingual nature. and industry, mining and agriculture; and Turkey has already succeeded in culti - conservation of precious water and other re - vating close economic and trade relations sources. The GCC nations promoted joint sci - with much of the Arab world. In May, Saudi entific research and business ventures. Most Arabia and Turkey signed a military cooper - notably, they formed a unified military pres - ation pact, though Turkey remains at least ence under “The Peninsula Shield.” While nominally a member of NATO. And when the shield—a two-brigade unit of some it came time in June for the UN Security 10,000 infantry and armored troops based Council to impose new sanctions on Iran, in Saudi Arabia near the Kuwait-Iraq bor - Turkey was one of two countries to vote der—is still a viable, if flimsy, military against the measure. The other was Brazil. force, the common market aspects of the Two years ago, Turkish foreign minister Ali GCC have flourished and hold a substantial Babacan and Qatari Prime Minister Shaikh promise for the future. With a total GDP of Hamad Bin Jasem Bin Jabr Al Than, then some $1.1 trillion, the GCC is barely a chairman of the GCC Ministerial Council, tenth the size of the United States or the signed a joint agreement declaring Turkey a EU, but the six Middle East nations boast a strategic partner of the GCC . In the after - population of just 38.3 million, barely the math of the Israeli attack on Turkish ships

96 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL • SUMMER 2010 seeking to run the Israeli blockade on Gaza, regional force. Turkey’s president hosted Russian Prime The SCO has served as an umbrella for Minister Vladimir Putin and Iranian Presi - joint Russia-China war games, and Russian dent Mahmoud Amadinejad, as well as lead - Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov has begun ers of Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Palestinian talking about bringing India into such exer - Authority and a dozen other nations at a re - cises in the future. At the same time, joint gional security summit in Istanbul—a di - actions are underway in counter-terrorism rect challenge to Europe and the United and counter-narcotics trafficking. Seven States. “The consequences of acts undertak - years ago, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Ji - en with feelings of hatred and vengeance are abao proposed that the members of the SCO obvious. Unfortunately, we saw a merciless begin moving toward a free trade zone, example of that recently,” Turkish President though there appears to have been little Abdullah Gul told the leaders gathered for concrete movement in this direction. And the summit—a pointed reference to Israeli like the EU and the GCC , there are states actions against the flotilla. In the economic that seem quite passionate about joining the sphere, Turkey’s Finance Minister Mehmet SCO for a host of strategic and economic rea - Simsek said in February on a visit to sons. Thus far, India, Pakistan, Iran and Bahrain that a free trade agreement—an im - Mongolia have been awarded observer sta - portant first step in any economic unifica - tus, while the United States has been reject - tion—would be signed with the GCC by the ed. Two years ago, Iran applied to become a end of this year. full member. Clearly, Turkey has been hedging its At the same time, the bitter conflict be - bets. And there are compelling reasons for it tween Kyrgyzstan and its Uzbek minority to do so. Today’s transient troubles within could poison whatever good will remains the EU notwithstanding, during the next between these two countries. If the ultimate several decades, large blocs will increasingly outcome is a partition of Krygyzstan into its dominate the world’s economic, financial, ethnic Kyrgyz north and its Uzbek south, yet political and security systems. another member could be added to the SCO , which could ultimately serve in some fashion as an arbitrator. Bloc-ing and Tackling The EU and the GCC are perhaps the most advanced regional blocs in terms of their Asia and Beyond overall development and unification, but by In 1967, long before the GCC or the SCO , five no means the only such groupings that have other Asian nations—Indonesia, Malaysia, been launched in recent years. In 1996, Chi - the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand— na, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and signed a document in Bangkok creating the Tajikistan formed the Shanghai Cooperation Association of Southeast Asian Nations Organization ( SCO ), which was joined five (ASEAN ). At the time, at the height of the years later by Uzbekistan and, without Chi - Cold War and the war in Vietnam, it was na, comprises the overlapping Eurasian Eco - seen as an economic counterpart to the nomic Community. While any sort of com - American-dominated Southeast Asia Treaty mon currency for the SCO is unlikely in the Organization ( SEATO ), the equivalent of the foreseeable future—their economies being so European Union and NATO or Comecon and vastly divergent—a host of other coopera - the Warsaw Pact. Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, tive ventures could make them an important Myanmar and Papua New Guinea have since

So Europe Ends at the Bosporus? 97 joined ASEAN , which now comprises 10 coun - How the world organizes itself is an es - tries with a staggering 577 million people sential issue. Small nations gravitate to the and a GDP of $3.4 trillion, though a per orbit of larger neighbors in some form of capita annual income of under $6,000. The union which, if successful, inevitably pro - vast disparities of wealth again make it an vokes stronger, closer and more comprehen - unlikely candidate for a common currency sive ties. In my previous column, I exam - anytime soon. Nevertheless it has pledged to ined how a small Himalayan kingdom, create an ASEAN Economic Community by Bhutan, was able to survive being crushed 2015, and has already achieved some internal between China and India. For geographical tariff accommodations. In a region that reasons, it chose India as its partner, though stretches across four time zones, there’s even in cultural, linguistic and religious terms it talk of a single ASEAN Common Time. was far closer to Tibetan Chinese on the In Africa, regional groupings are also in northern slope of the Himalayas. Since the various stages of gestation. The African Eco - relationship with India allows it to retain its nomic Community hopes to move toward a independence and prosper, inevitably that free trade zone in 2019 and have a common relationship has strengthened. When Yu - currency by 2028; there’s a five-member goslavia returned to its ancestral roots and East African Community with its own cus - broke into seven component nations, the toms union; an Economic Community of stronger components found a unity of sorts Central African States already shares a com - within the EU, which allowed each to retain mon currency called the CFA franc; and the an individual identity while guaranteeing Economic Community of West African prosperity and security. Equally, many na - States has, like the other African blocs, free tions of the former Soviet Union are finding trade areas. But integration of such dis - a new unity in the Shanghai Cooperation parate, often feuding economies, govern - Organization, which will likely flourish on - ments, and even tribes suggests that any ly as it manages to avoid dominance by a true union may be in a somewhat more dis - single member—Russia or China. tant future. At the same time, artificial boundaries created decades, even centuries, in the past by statesmen and adventurers with little un - Onward and Inward derstanding of the people and tribes who The world is watching what will happen to live there, will cease to play an important the euro, and the European Union. There role in international organization. Borders seems to be little doubt that both will, in will cease to be the subjects of conflicts and some fashion, survive. Putting such a large, bickering as nations make voluntary choices intricate genie back into its bottle is unlike - on just how much sovereignty they are pre - ly and potentially catastrophic. At the same pared to relinquish in the interests of peace time, it will become ever more vital for and security. Above all, the issue may in - small groups of nations to band together, creasingly become which bloc a nation de - ensuring their ability to navigate the in - cides to cast its lot with. Turkey, for one, creasingly turbulent waters of a global econ - appears to be making such a choice. In the omy dominated by a handful of powerful process, it’s sounding a wakeup call to many currencies. Then there’s the added benefit of in the West, especially Washington, that ensuring their own national security in a nations left on the outside will need to time of transnational terrorism and cross- make some difficult choices —sooner rather border threats. than later. —David A. Andelman

98 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL • SUMMER 2010