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2016-06-06 Final Thesis Clean

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2016-06-06 Final Thesis Clean NATURAL GAS DIPLOMACY OF RUSSIA WITH THE EU AND TURKEY: POLITICAL AND SECURITY VERSUS ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSIONS A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY KÜR ŞAD TOSUN IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE MAY 2016 ABSTRACT NATURAL GAS DIPLOMACY OF RUSSIA WITH THE EU AND TURKEY: POLITICAL AND SECURITY VERSUS ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSIONS Tosun, Kür şad Ph.D., Department of Earth System Science Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Oktay Fırat Tanrısever Co-Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Merih Köksal Aydınalp May 2016, 289 pages Energy relations among Turkey, Russia and the EU are very complex. In terms of natural gas, Russia wishes to secure its strong supplier status on Europe and Turkey, while the EU strives for diversity in gas pipeline routes and supply security. On the other hand, Turkey aims to strengthen its status as a transit country, at least preferably as a ‘hub’, and also seeks for diverse gas supplies. In recent years, Turkey was able to overcome difficult and sensitive political situations with successful maneuvers using its unique geopolitical advantages; and acceded to consent Russia to use its Exclusive Economic Zone in the Black Sea where South Stream Natural Gas Pipeline would cross. However, the EU blocked the South Stream Project and Russia has an intention to divert the route of the project towards Turkey. Moreover, Turkey has succeeded in converting the Turkish Section of the Nabucco Project into the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline Project (TANAP) together with Azerbaijan, to contribute to the energy security and energy supply diversification policy of the EU in order to decrease the dependence on Russia by including Caspian and probably Middle Eastern (Iraq) natural gas reserves. TANAP will be extended to Italy from Greece via the Trans Adriatic Project (TAP). v Contrary to the arguments which emphasize the importance of financial, economic and environmental feasibility of these gas pipeline projects, this thesis argues that political and security dimensions play a more influential role in determining the prospects of the realization of the projects. Therefore, this thesis is based on the ‘political neoclassical realist approach to international relations’ framework. Keywords : Natural gas, gas diplomacy, Turkey, Russia, the EU. vi ÖZ RUSYA’NIN AB VE TÜRK İYE İLE DO ĞAL GAZ D İPLOMAS İSİ: SİYASET VE GÜVENL İK BOYUTLARINA KAR ŞILIK EKONOM İK VE ÇEVRESEL BOYUTLAR Tosun, Kür şad Doktora, Yer Sistem Bilimleri Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Prof. Dr. Oktay Fırat Tanrısever Tez Eş Yöneticisi: Yard. Doç. Dr. Merih Köksal Aydınalp Mayıs 2016, 289 sayfa Türkiye, Rusya ve AB arasındaki enerji ili şkileri oldukça karma şıktır. Do ğal gaz açısından Rusya; Avrupa ve Türkiye üzerinde güçlü olan tedarikçi konumunu korumak istemektedir; AB ise, do ğalgaz boru hattı güzergâhlarında çe şitlilik ve tedarik güvencesi elde etme çabasındadır. Di ğer yandan Türkiye, transit ülke, ya da tercihen bir ‘hub’ olarak konumunu güçlendirmeyi amaçlamaktadır ve çe şitli do ğalgaz tedarik imkânına sahip olmak istemektedir. Son yıllarda Türkiye, e şsiz jeopolitik avantajlarını kullanmak suretiyle, ba şarılı manevralarla zorlu ve hassas politik sorunları aşmayı başarmış; ve Güney Akım Doğalgaz Boru Hattının geçece ği, Karadeniz’deki kendi Münhasır Ekonomik Bölgeyi Rusya’nın kullanmasına rıza göstermi ştir. Ancak AB, Güney Akım Projesini engellemi ştir ve Rusya, projenin güzergâhını Türkiye’ye çevirmek niyetindedir. Buna ek olarak Türkiye, Hazar Denizi ve muhtemelen Orta Do ğu (Irak) do ğalgaz rezervlerini dahil ederek Rusya’ya olan ba ğımlılı ğı azaltmak için AB’nin enerji güvenli ği ve enerji tedariki çe şitlendirilmesi politikasına katkıda bulunmak amacıyla Nabucco Projesinin Türkiye Kesimini, Azerbaycan ile birlikte Trans Anadolu Boru Hattı Projesine (TANAP) dönü ştürmeyi ba şarmı ştır. TANAP, Trans Adriyatik Projesi (TAP) sayesinde, Yunanistan’dan İtalya’ya do ğru uzanacaktır. vii Bu projelerin mali, ekonomik ve çevresel fizibilitesinin önemini vurgulayan savların aksine bu tez, söz konusu do ğal gaz boru hattı projelerin hayata geçirilme olasılıklarının belirlenmesinde siyaset ve güvenlik boyutlarının daha güçlü bir rol oynadı ğını savunmaktadır. Dolayısıyla bu tez, ‘uluslararası ili şkilerde neoklasik realist politik yakla şım’ çerçevesine dayalıdır. Anahtar Kelimeler : Do ğal gaz, do ğal gaz diplomasisi, Türkiye, Rusya, AB. viii To My Beloved Father who always longed for me to become a “Doctor” and To my Mother for her invaluable and strong endeavors. ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First of all, I would like to express my heartfelt gratefulness to my current supervisor and former co-supervisor Prof. Dr. Oktay Fırat Tanrısever and co- supervisor Assoc. Prof. Dr. Merih Aydınalp Köksal for their helpfulness, patience and productive debate throughout my studies. The acknowledgments are extended to the Department Chair Prof. Dr. Ay şen Yılmaz and the current members of the thesis monitoring and examining committee Prof. Dr. Mahmut Parlaktuna, Prof. Dr. Erdal Tanas Karagöl and Prof. Müslüme Narin and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Şule Güne ş as for their invaluable contribution, respectively. Moreover, I would like to thank to Prof. Dr. İpek İmamo ğlu and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Şule Ergun for accepting to be spare members for the examining committee. Then of course, I would like to express my sincere appreciation to my former supervisor Prof. Dr. Ramazan Sarı, as well as the members of my former thesis monitoring committee Prof. Dr. Tanju Mehmetoğlu, Prof. Dr. Muhittin Ataman and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ebru Voyvoda, for their guidance in paving the way to make this thesis a reality. Finally, I wish to thank my all family members –my mother, my father, my brothers and their wifes, my nieces, my nephews and my friends for their strong encouragement and forbearance. I know that without their support, I could not achieve that. x TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................ v ÖZ ....................................................................................................................... ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..................................................................................... x TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................ xi LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................ xiv LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................. xvi LIST OF MAPS ................................................................................................... xvii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................. xviii CHAPTERS 1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 1 1.1. Scope of the Thesis ......................................................................................... 5 1.2. Research Objectives and Research Questions ................................................ 8 1.3. Research Background and Literature Review .............................................. 10 1.4. Thesis Argument ........................................................................................... 11 1.5. Methodology ................................................................................................ 11 2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ............................................................... 13 2.1. Introduction .................................................................................................. 13 2.2. Relevant International Relations Theory for the Thesis Subject .................. 13 2.3. Selected Relevant Theory: Neoclassical Realism ........................................ 21 2.4. Concluding Remarks .................................................................................... 25 3. NATURAL GAS AND RUSSIA .................................................................. 27 3.1. Introduction .................................................................................................. 27 3.2. Natural Gas Policy of Russia ....................................................................... 27 3.3. Natural Gas Supply Security by Russia to the EU and Turkey .................... 38 3.4. Concluding Remarks .................................................................................... 43 4. ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSIONS .......................... 47 4.1. Introduction .................................................................................................. 47 4.2. Nuclear Power Capacity Decrease in Europe and Increase in Turkey ......... 49 xi 4.3. Decrease in the Domestic Natural Gas Production and Reliance on Imports in the EU ................................................................................................................ 60 4.4. Unconventional Gas in the EU and Turkey .................................................. 64 4.5. Increase in the Share of Renewables in the EU and Turkey ......................... 74 4.6. Energy Efficiency in the EU and Turkey ...................................................... 84 4.7. Climate Targets of the EU and Turkey ......................................................... 90 4.8. LNG Imports of the EU and Turkey ............................................................
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