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Volume XIV, Issue 1 February 2020 PERSPECTIVES on TERRORISM Volume 14, Issue 1

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Volume XIV, Issue 1 February 2020 PERSPECTIVES on TERRORISM Volume 14, Issue 1 ISSN 2334-3745 Volume XIV, Issue 1 February 2020 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 14, Issue 1 Table of Contents Welcome from the Editors...............................................................................................................................1 Articles Detecting Future ‘Marawis’: Considering Alternative Indicators for Assessing the Potential for New Manifestations of Violent Extremism in Mindanao.......................................................................................3 by Joseph Franco The Threat of Transnational Terrorist Groups in Kashmir...........................................................................13 by Abhinav Pandya Research Notes Learning in a Double Loop: The Strategic Transformation of Al-Qaeda....................................................26 by Michael Fürstenberg and Carolin Görzig Brain and Body “Fingerprints” of Existential Anxiety and their Relevance for the Identification of Potential Terrorists........................................................................................................................................39 by Linda Wendelberg A New Inventory of 30 Terrorism Databases and Data Sets........................................................................54 by Neil G. Bowie Online Deceptions: Renegotiating Gender Boundaries on ISIS Telegram..................................................67 by Meili Criezis Resources Handbook of Terrorism and Counter Terrorism Post 9/11, edited by David M. Jones, Paul Schulte, Carl Ungerer, and M.R. Smith. Cheltenham, Glos.: Edward Elgar, 2019............................................................74 Reviewed by Alex P. Schmid Counterterrorism Bookshelf: 62 Books on Terrorism & Counter-Terrorism-Related Subjects................76 Reviewed by Joshua Sinai Bibliography: Deradicalization.....................................................................................................................92 Compiled and selected by Judith Tinnes Bibliography: Terrorism by Country – Iran...............................................................................................132 Compiled and selected by Judith Tinnes Recent Online Resources for the Analysis of Terrorism and Related Subjects..........................................155 Compiled and selected by Berto Jongman M.A. and Ph.D. Theses on Terrorism and Sectarianism.............................................................................191 Compiled and selected by Brody C. McDonald ISSN 2334-3745 I February 2020 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 14, Issue 1 Conference Calendar .................................................................................................................................196 Compiled and selected by Olivia Kearney Announcements TRI Thesis Award Information....................................................................................................................204 Words of Appreciation.................................................................................................................................205 About Perspectives on Terrorism..................................................................................................................206 ISSN 2334-3745 II February 2020 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 14, Issue 1 Words of Welcome from the Editors Dear Reader, We are pleased to announce the release of Volume XIV, Issue 1 (February 2020) of Perspectives on Terrorism (PoT – ISSN 2334-3745). Our free and independent online journal is a publication of the Terrorism Research Initiative (TRI), Vienna, and the Institute of Security and Global Affairs (ISGA) of Leiden University’s Campus in The Hague. All PoT issues are available athttps://ww w.universiteitleiden.nl/perspectives-on-terrorism and indexed by JSTOR, SCOPUS, and GoogleScholar. Now in its fourteenth year, Perspectives on Terrorism has nearly 8,900 registered subscribers and many more occasional readers and website visitors worldwide. The Articles of its six annual issues are fully peer-reviewed by external referees while its Research and Policy Notes, Special Correspondence, Resources and other content are subject to internal editorial quality control. Here is a brief look at the contents of the current issue. The first research article, by Joseph Franco, draws lessons from the 2017 Battle for Marawi in the Philippines that can help identify alternative measures to detect sources of violent extremism, such as the responsiveness of local governments, poverty levels, and the effectiveness of educational institutions. Next, Abhinav Pandya examines how Kashmir is becoming increasingly vulnerable to the influence and operations of transnational terrorist groups. B oth articles are based on in-depth field research. The Articles section is followed by four Research Notes. In the first of these, Michael Fürstenberg and Carolin Görzig apply a conceptual framework of organizational learning to explain the strategic evolution of jihadist groups, particularly Al-Qaeda and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham. Next, Linda Wendelberg examines whether the psychological condition known as Existential Anxiety could be a risk factor in radicalization processes. Neil Bowie follows with a Research Note describing 30 new databases on terrorism. And this section concludes with a Research Note by Meili Criezis, examining the ways in which Islamic State supporters on Telegram, an encrypted messaging application, renegotiate gender boundaries. The Resource section begins with a book review by Alex Schmid of the recently published Handbook of Terrorism and Counter Terrorism Post 9/11. Then Joshua Sinai presents more than 60 books by listing their tables of contents, while Associate Editor Judith Tinnes continues her series of extensive hand-searched bibliographies with one on deradicalisation research, and another on terrorism and Iran. These are followed by Associate Editor Berto Jongman’s regular survey of new web-based resources on terrorism and related subjects. Brody McDonald (who has taken over the journal’s theses surveys from Ryan Scrivens) provides a list of M.A. and Ph.D. theses on terrorism, violent extremism and nationalism, followed by an overview of recent and upcoming conferences, symposia and workshops on terrorism-related subjects by Olivia Kearney (who temporarily took over the work of Reinier Bergema for this section). Finally, the February issue concludes with an announcement about the annual TRI ThesisA ward for the Best Doctoral Dissertation on Terrorism and/or Counter-Terrorism, and a separate Words of Appreciation to all the peer reviewers, Editorial Board members and Editorial Team of Perspectives on Terrorism for another successful year as evidenced by its place among the top three journals in the field: ISSN 2334-3745 1 February 2020 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 14, Issue 1 Comparison of Peer Reviewed Journals in Terrorism Studies (Google Scholar Feb. 14, 2020) Publication h5-index h5-median Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 32 51 Terrorism and Political Violence 31 48 Perspectives on Terrorism 26 52 The current issue ofPerspectives on Terrorism has been put together by Co-Editor James Forest and Editor-in- Chief, Alex P. Schmid, with the support of Associate Editor for IT Christine Boelema Robertus, and with the help of Editorial Assistant Jodi Moore. The next issue of the journal is tentatively scheduled as a Special Issue on terrorism in the North Caucasus region, guest edited by Julie Wilhelmsen from the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. ISSN 2334-3745 2 February 2020 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 14, Issue 1 Detecting Future ‘Marawis’: Considering Alternative Indicators for Assessing the Potential for New Manifestations of Violent Extremism in Mindanao by Joseph Franco Abstract The 2017 Battle for Marawi was the proverbial perfect storm—the Maute Group (MG) and its allies were opportunistic actors who exploited the violent milieu provided by the city. Marawi’s prevailing insecurity, its built environment, and alienated population coalesced into a setting conducive for the protracted battle. What are the potential indicators that could detect future ‘Marawis’? This article highlights the need to identify alternative measures to detect sources of violent extremism in Mindanao. Greater foresight could be obtained by observing proxy indicators such as the responsiveness of local governments, poverty levels, and the effectiveness of educational institutions. Based on field visits conducted for this article, the hinterlands of Maguindanao may be the most likely enclave for new MG-style groups. Keywords: Mindanao, Terrorism, Philippines, Countering Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism Introduction The 2017 Battle for Marawi was the proverbial perfect storm—the so-called Maute Group (MG) and its allies were opportunistic actors who exploited the violent milieu provided by the city. Fighting in the Islamic city of Marawi erupted on 23 May 2017 after an operation was launched by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) special operations forces (SOF) to capture Isnilon Hapilon, the leader of Islamic State-pledged (IS) militants in Mindanao. What was planned as a swift raid transformed into a confused running gun battle against hundreds of Maute Group (MG) members, other Filipino militants, and foreign terrorist fighters. The raid preempted the MG’s plan to take over Marawi on 26 May 2017. Months before the siege, the MG had planned to time their attack to coincide with the start of the holy month of Ramadan. After
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