Gill Morgan, Is Dealing with Whitehall Arrogance
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plus… Jeff Jones Labour’s leadership election Nicola Porter Journalism must fight back Barry Morgan Religion and politics Dafydd Wigley Options for the referendum Andrew Shearer Garlic’s secret weapon Gill David Culshaw Decline of the honeybee Gordon James Coal in a warm climate Morgan Katija Dew Beating the crunch Gear change for our civil service Andrew Davies The Kafka Brigade Peter Finch Capturing the soul www.iwa.org.uk Winter 2009 No. 39 | £5 clickonwales ! Coming soon, our new website www. iwa.or g.u k, containing much more up-to-date news and information and with a freshly designed new look. Featuring clickonwales – the IWA’s new online service providing news and analysis about current affairs as it affects our small country. Expert contributors from across the political spectrum will be commissioned daily to provide insights into the unfolding drama of the new 21 st Century Wales – whether it be Labour’s leadership election, constitutional change, the climate change debate, arguments about education, or the ongoing problems, successes and shortcomings of the Welsh economy. There will be more scope, too, for interactive debate, and a special section for IWA members. Plus: Information about the IWA’s branches, events, and publications. This will be the must see and must use Welsh website. clickonwales and see where it takes you. clickonwales and see how far you go. The Institute of Welsh Affairs gratefully acknowledges core funding from the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust , the Esmée Fairbairn Foundation and the Waterloo Foundation . 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The first is spending cuts. Second is the Design: intractable problem of Welsh economic performance. Third is negotiating the www.theundercard.co.uk referendum that will be the next step in the unfinished business of creating a To advertise proper Parliament for Wales. Tel: 029 2066 6606 We analyse prospects for the Welsh budget on pages 30-31. The outlook for Institute of Welsh Affairs the next three years presents a sharp contrast to the relative largesse of the first 4 Cathedral Road decade of devolution. The Welsh Government’s budget will fall from £15.38 Cardiff CF11 9LJ billion to £14.18 billion in real terms, after taking account of inflation, a Tel: 029 2066 0820 cumulative reduction of around 9 per cent. What this will mean for individual Email: [email protected] departments can be gleaned from the 2010-11 draft budget which we also publish www.iwa.org.uk in summary. In terms of the big spending departments this shows Environment The IWA is a non-aligned independent think- and Housing, the Economy and Education taking the biggest hits, with cuts of tank and research institute. Members (annual 10.2 per cent, 4.6 per cent and 3.4 per cent respectively next year. Meanwhile subscription £40) receive agenda three times Social Justice and Local Government have a 2.25 per cent rise and Health and a year, can purchase reports at a 25 per cent Social Services 0.2 per cent. reduction, and receive discounts when attending The Health and Social Services budget is by some measure the largest and IWA events. has consistently risen over the past decade at rates well above inflation. In the same period education spending has consistently fallen in relative terms. The Branches North Wales Secretariat time has come to alter this balance. It is a tough call, but it is time for rigorous c/o Huw Lewis controls of health spending to allow education to catch up. In any event much of 6 Maes yr Haul, Mold, Flintshire CH7 1NS spending in the acute hospital sector is merely dealing with the consequences of Tel: 01352 758311 unhealthy lifestyles resulting from obesity, smoking, lack of exercise and much more, as we report on pages 62-65. Spending on education is the best option for Gwent Secretariat dealing with these underlying causes of Wales’s poor health. c/o Chris O’Malley At the same time the next First Minister should champion the case for University of Wales, Newport, Caerleon Campus PO Box 179, Newport NP18 3YG replacing the Barnett Formula that calculates changes in the Welsh block grant, Tel: 01633 432005 with one based on need rather than population. Three authoritative reports have made this case in recent months – from the House of Lords Select Committee, West Wales Secretariat the Calman Commission in Scotland and our own Holtham Commission. c/o Margaret Davies Estimates vary but unless a change to a needs-based formula for calculating our Principal’s Office, Trinity University College, block grant takes place, Wales is set to lose out by at least £300m in the coming Carmarthen SA31 3EP year and more thereafter. Tel: 01267 237971 The Welsh Government’s levers on the economy are restricted. In the current Swansea Bay Secretariat recession it has shown some fleetness of foot in developing the £48m ProAct c/o Beti Williams scheme in which companies on short time working can receive up to £4,000 per Department of Computer Science, employee to keep them in employment. Elsewhere, however, the Government has Swansea University,