plus… Jeff Jones Labour’s leadership election Nicola Porter Journalism must fight back Barry Morgan Religion and politics Dafydd Wigley Options for the referendum Andrew Shearer Garlic’s secret weapon Gill David Culshaw Decline of the honeybee Gordon James Coal in a warm climate Morgan Katija Dew Beating the crunch Gear change for our civil service Andrew Davies The Kafka Brigade Peter Finch Capturing the soul www.iwa.org.uk Winter 2009 No. 39 | £5 clickonwales ! Coming soon, our new website www. iwa.or g.u k, containing much more up-to-date news and information and with a freshly designed new look. Featuring clickonwales – the IWA’s new online service providing news and analysis about current affairs as it affects our small country. Expert contributors from across the political spectrum will be commissioned daily to provide insights into the unfolding drama of the new 21 st Century Wales – whether it be Labour’s leadership election, constitutional change, the climate change debate, arguments about education, or the ongoing problems, successes and shortcomings of the Welsh economy. There will be more scope, too, for interactive debate, and a special section for IWA members. Plus: Information about the IWA’s branches, events, and publications. This will be the must see and must use Welsh website. clickonwales and see where it takes you. clickonwales and see how far you go. The Institute of Welsh Affairs gratefully acknowledges core funding from the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust , the Esmée Fairbairn Foundation and the Waterloo Foundation . The following organisations are corporate members: Private Sector • Principality Building Society • The Electoral Commission Certified Accountants • Abaca Ltd • Royal Hotel Cardiff • Embassy of Ireland • Autism Cymru • Beaufort Research • Royal Mail Group Wales • Fforwm • Cartrefi Cymunedol / • Biffa Waste Services Ltd • RWE NPower Renewables • The Forestry Commission Community Housing Cymru • British Gas • S. A. Brain & Co Ltd • Cyngor Gwynedd • Cartrefi Cymru • Burns Pet Nutrition Ltd • Siemens MSD Ltd • Harvard College Library • Carmarthenshire Association • Canbry Consulting Ltd • Stratamatrix • Heddlu Gogledd Cymru of Voluntary Services • Capita Percy Thomas • Sundance Renewables • Heritage Lottery Fund • Community Enterprise Wales • Capita Symonds • Tim Bowen Antiques • Higher Education Wales • Community – the Union • Capper + Co Ltd • TAC • House of Commons Library for Life • Castell Howell Foods • Teifi Harps • House of Lords Library • Constructing Excellence Wales • Castle Cement Ltd • Ufi Cymru Ltd • Llyfrgell Genedlaethol Cymru • Cymdeithas Tai Cantref • CBI Wales • W.H. Ireland /National Library of Wales • The Hon Society of • Chambers at 9 Park Place • Y Papur Gwyrdd • Mid and West Wales Fire Cymmrodorion • Chambers at 30 Park Place and Rescue Services • Cynon Taf Community • Corus Steel Strip Products Public Sector • Milford Haven Port Authority Housing Group • Deloitte • Aberystwyth University • National Assembly for • Development Trusts • DTZ Consulting • Arts Council of Wales Wales Library Association Wales • Dwˆr Cymru/Welsh Water • Bangor University • National Museum Wales • Energy Saving Trust Wales • Eversheds LLP • BBC Cymru Wales • Northern Ireland Assembly • Environment Agency Wales • FBA Ltd • Bridgend College Library • Farmers Union of Wales • Federation of Small • British Waterways • Newport Business School • Iaith Cyf Businesses Wales • Caerphilly County • North Wales Fire Service • Institute of Physics • First Great Western Borough Council • Pembrokeshire Coast • Jobforce Wales • Geldards LLP • Cardiff County Council National Park • Keep Wales Tidy • Gravells Kidwelly • Cardiff University, including • Powys County Council • The Law Society / • Grayling Wales Cardiff Business School, • Public Services Ombudsman Cymdeithas y Cyfreithwyr • HSBC Cardiff University Library, for Wales • Leonard Cheshire Disability • The Institute of Chartered CAIRD • Royal Welsh College of • Menter Môn Accountants of England • Care Council for Wales Music & Drama • National Trust Wales and Wales • Carmarthenshire County • S4C • Oxfam Cymru • Institute of Directors Council • Scottish Parliament InfoCentre • RISE • ITV Wales • Children’s Commission • South Wales Police Authority • RNIB Cymru • Julian Hodge Bank for Wales • Swansea College • Royal Institution of Chartered • KPMG • CIPFA • Swansea Metropolitan Surveyors in Wales • LBS Builders Merchants Ltd • City and County of Swansea University • Royal College of Nursing • Legal & General • Coleg Glan Hafren • Swansea University • Royal Society of Architects • Liberty Properties Plc • Coleg Gwent • University of Glamorgan in Wales • Media Wales • Coleg Menai • University of Wales, Newport • RSPB Cymru • Morgan Allen Moore • Commission for Equality • UWIC Business School • Wales Council for Cymru Wales and Human Rights • Wales Audit Office Voluntary Action • Morgan Cole • Consumer Focus Wales • Wales TUC • Wales Environment Trust Ltd • Morgan LaRoche • Countryside Council for Wales • Wrexham County Borough • Wales Management Council • Nolan UPVC • Cyngor Ynys Môn / Isle of Council • Wales Millennium Centre • OCR Cymru Anglesey County Council • The Waterloo Foundation • Ove Arup and Partners • Cynnal Cymru Voluntary Sector • Working Links • Parker Plant Hire Ltd • Denbighshire County Council • Academi • WWF Cymru • PriceWaterhouse Coopers • Ebbw Vale and District • Antur Teifi • Princes Gate Spring Water Development Trust • Association of Chartered For information on IWA events and publications please visit our website at www.iwa.org.uk or call 029 2066 0820 winter 2009 Production Challenges facing Editor: John Osmond Assistant Editor: Stevie Upton the next first minister Associate Editor: Geraint Talfan Davies If Rhodri Morgan will be remembered as the man who embedded the National Assembly in the minds, if not altogether the hearts of the people of Wales, then Administration: Helen Sims-Coomber, Clare Johnson the legacy of his successor as First Minister will be defined by how he or she deals with three looming challenges. The first is spending cuts. Second is the Design: intractable problem of Welsh economic performance. Third is negotiating the www.theundercard.co.uk referendum that will be the next step in the unfinished business of creating a To advertise proper Parliament for Wales. Tel: 029 2066 6606 We analyse prospects for the Welsh budget on pages 30-31. The outlook for Institute of Welsh Affairs the next three years presents a sharp contrast to the relative largesse of the first 4 Cathedral Road decade of devolution. The Welsh Government’s budget will fall from £15.38 Cardiff CF11 9LJ billion to £14.18 billion in real terms, after taking account of inflation, a Tel: 029 2066 0820 cumulative reduction of around 9 per cent. What this will mean for individual Email: [email protected] departments can be gleaned from the 2010-11 draft budget which we also publish www.iwa.org.uk in summary. In terms of the big spending departments this shows Environment The IWA is a non-aligned independent think- and Housing, the Economy and Education taking the biggest hits, with cuts of tank and research institute. Members (annual 10.2 per cent, 4.6 per cent and 3.4 per cent respectively next year. Meanwhile subscription £40) receive agenda three times Social Justice and Local Government have a 2.25 per cent rise and Health and a year, can purchase reports at a 25 per cent Social Services 0.2 per cent. reduction, and receive discounts when attending The Health and Social Services budget is by some measure the largest and IWA events. has consistently risen over the past decade at rates well above inflation. In the same period education spending has consistently fallen in relative terms. The Branches North Wales Secretariat time has come to alter this balance. It is a tough call, but it is time for rigorous c/o Huw Lewis controls of health spending to allow education to catch up. In any event much of 6 Maes yr Haul, Mold, Flintshire CH7 1NS spending in the acute hospital sector is merely dealing with the consequences of Tel: 01352 758311 unhealthy lifestyles resulting from obesity, smoking, lack of exercise and much more, as we report on pages 62-65. Spending on education is the best option for Gwent Secretariat dealing with these underlying causes of Wales’s poor health. c/o Chris O’Malley At the same time the next First Minister should champion the case for University of Wales, Newport, Caerleon Campus PO Box 179, Newport NP18 3YG replacing the Barnett Formula that calculates changes in the Welsh block grant, Tel: 01633 432005 with one based on need rather than population. Three authoritative reports have made this case in recent months – from the House of Lords Select Committee, West Wales Secretariat the Calman Commission in Scotland and our own Holtham Commission. c/o Margaret Davies Estimates vary but unless a change to a needs-based formula for calculating our Principal’s Office, Trinity University College, block grant takes place, Wales is set to lose out by at least £300m in the coming Carmarthen SA31 3EP year and more thereafter. Tel: 01267 237971 The Welsh Government’s levers on the economy are restricted. In the current Swansea Bay Secretariat recession it has shown some fleetness of foot in developing the £48m ProAct c/o Beti Williams scheme in which companies on short time working can receive up to £4,000 per Department of Computer Science, employee to keep them in employment. Elsewhere, however, the Government has Swansea University,