Issue 1—September 2007 Assembly Bwletin Cynulliad On the agenda this month • One Wales: Breaking the Mould of Welsh Politics John Osmond, Institute of Welsh Affairs • One Wales: A New, Progressive Agenda Grayling • A New Dawn on the Welsh Political Landscape Grayling ‘During May and June 2007 the mould of Welsh ‘The third term sees Walesʹ two biggest political politics was broken. And it was the rainbow All rivals joining forces in a historic coalition Wales Accord that broke it. At the start of the government. The big questions are: will this new negotiations the prospect of an alternative agenda drive Wales forward, will they be able to government to one run or dominated by Labour put aside their differences or will they spend more was not foreseen as a practical outcome by any of time fighting amongst each other than with the the parties, least of all by Labour itself. ʹ opposition?ʹ Institute of Welsh Affairs Grayling Assembly Bwletin Cynulliad is a new initiative between Grayling and the Institute of Welsh Affairs, bringing you the ABC of Welsh politics every month. We would be pleased to receive your feedback: Institute of Welsh Affairs Grayling 1‐3 Museum Place 2 Caspian Point Cardiff, CF10 3BD Cardiff Bay, CF10 4DQ Tel: 029 2066 6606 Tel: 029 2046 2507 www.iwa.org.uk www.grayling.com Issue 1—September 2007 ONE WALES: BREAKING THE MOULD OF WELSH POLITICS tinue to govern as a minority admini‐ sion agenda, including the case for an John Osmond, Institute of Welsh Affairs stration sooner or later it would come increase in the Assembly’s member‐ to pass, was arguably the most im‐ ship to 80 and for them all to be Until May 3, 2007, it seemed that, portant result of the negotiations. A elected by the proportional single given proportional representation democracy is hardly meaningful transferable voting (STV) system. and the political geography of Wales, unless there is at least the possibility the most likely administration result‐ It was noteworthy, therefore, that of an alternative government. After ing from the Assembly election re‐ all, what is the point of voting if the mained one of two options: a minor‐ outcome is pre‐determined? ity Labour Government or a Labour‐ led coalition with the Liberal Democ‐ The election result presented both rats as the junior partner. Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour with opportunities. Plaid Cymru seized Both had already been tried. There theirs by demonstrating a willingness had been differences in tone between to talk to all parties. By dint of negoti‐ them but essentially they had been ating two separate agreements with within a week of the One Wales agree‐ the same. Suddenly, however, follow‐ different partners within the space of ment being signed AMs from all par‐ ing the May 3 election result strik‐ three weeks it brought all sides on ties were already making the case for ingly different possibilities were board for a further constitutional ad‐ 80 members. One reason was the opened up. The rainbow coalition, vance. For its part Labour grasped dominating position of the new gov‐ between Plaid Cymru, Conservatives the opportunity to take the lead in erning coalition. Its 41 AMs not only and Liberal Democrats, and the alli‐ that advance, and also ensured that it left just 19 as the Opposition, but ance between Labour and Plaid remained the largest partner in gov‐ their two‐thirds majority meant they Cymru represented significant ernment. Labour also produced what could override the standing orders change. may come to be seen as the most in‐ which determine how the Assembly novative commitment to emerge from conducts its business. As Labour’s Arguably, the rainbow coalition was the negotiations, an all‐Wales Con‐ new Mid and West Wales AM Alun the more radical, certainly in the vention to drive the constitutional Davies said, pointing out that with sense of creating a completely new argument forward. just 60 AMs the Assembly has fewer government. Yet the Labour‐Plaid members than the average county Government was also a remarkable Almost as soon as the One Wales council: development in Welsh politics. And, agreement was signed all sides spoke undeniably, Labour would never of the need to ensure that a referen‐ “This is not an issue of party politics. have offered a coalition deal to Plaid dum on more powers for the Assem‐ It is an issue of governance. It’s abso‐ Cymru if the possibility of a rainbow bly could be won before a decision lutely crucial. We need to find a way coalition had not threatened Labour was made to hold one. Peter Hain, of addressing this issue.” with going into Opposition, possibly the Secretary of State for Wales, de‐ for a generation. clared that in his view a referendum The way of doing so will be through was unlikely to be held before 2011: the convention which will also be a During May and June 2007 the mould test‐bed for the durability of the Red‐ of Welsh politics “I don’t think you can guarantee in Green Alliance. If agreement between was broken. And advance when we will hold a referen‐ Labour and Plaid Cymru on Wales’s it was the rain‐ dum. There is a process to try to next constitutional advance is sus‐ bow All Wales achieve that objective. That’s what tained in the convention then so, in Accord that broke the One Wales agreement is and it all likelihood, will the alliance, proba‐ it. At the start of has been entered into in good faith. I bly beyond the 2011 election. the negotiations am rather doubtful whether it can be the prospect of an alternative govern‐ achieved.” For an exploration of the coalition ment to one run or dominated by La‐ bour was not foreseen as a practical Yet, the importance of the convention talks see Crossing the Rubicon by outcome by any of the parties, least of is that it will be an instrument in John Osmond. To order visit all by Labour itself. The demonstra‐ making the case for change. In the www.iwa.org.uk or call (029) 2066 tion that there was this alternative, process, it seems inevitable that it will 6606. and that if Labour attempted to con‐ return to the full Richard Commis‐ Issue 1—September 2007 ONE WALES: A NEW, PROGRESSIVE AGENDA bility to the people of Wales, while reminding us that they are still two separate identities who will be cam‐ paigning against each other in next year’s Welsh local government elections. The document covers a broad range of policy areas, including health, social services, the economy, public service delivery, transport, social justice, education, equality of opportunity, criminal justice (to the anger of Labour MPs), sustainability and the environment, rural affairs, culture and the arts, the Welsh language, sport and, perhaps most controver‐ sially, the issue of further powers of the Assembly. Some important proposals put forward in the docu‐ ment include: • grants for first‐time house‐buyers; • extra assistance with student debt and mainte‐ nance of existing fee levels in Wales up to and includ‐ ing 2009‐2010; • extra help for pensioners with council tax, as well as rail discount arrangements; • a new approach to health service reconfiguration and a moratorium on existing proposals for changes at community hospital level; • a move to ‘purposefully’ end the internal market Grayling in the Welsh NHS and eliminate its use of private sec‐ tor hospitals by 2011; On June 27 it was announced that Labour and Plaid • ruling out the use of the Private Finance Initiative Cymru had agreed to form a coalition government in in the Welsh NHS during the Third Assembly; the National Assembly. This followed weeks of inten‐ • increased funding to support social housing; sive negotiations resulting from the inconclusive elec‐ drawing down legislative power to the Assembly in tion results of May 3. These left Labour with 26 seats; order to suspend the ‘right to buy’ in areas of housing by far the largest party but with not enough seats to pressure; govern effectively. Plaid Cymru, meanwhile, with 15 • a requirement for all ‘sizeable new housing devel‐ seats, had also been attracted to a rainbow coalition opments’ to include a percentage of social housing to deal with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats ‘reflect local need’; and had even agreed an All‐Wales Accord policy docu‐ • a programme for improved north‐south links, in‐ ment with these parties in anticipation of ousting La‐ cluding travel by road and rail; bour’s minority administration with an alternative coalition government. In the end the two parties • ‘radical’ reductions in class sizes for three‐to‐seven voted, both by quite convincing margins, to approve year olds; the deal based on the One Wales policy document. The • establishment of a Climate Change Commission document is now set to form the basis of Assembly for Wales, to be chaired by the Minister for Sustainabil‐ Government policy over the next four years. ity and Rural Development (currently Jane Davidson), and including AMs from all four political parties, busi‐ The One Wales document is steeped in the language of nesses, local government and the voluntary sector; progressive politics, acknowledging that ‘on 3 May, • an aim to achieve annual carbon reduction‐ the people of Wales sought a government of progres‐ equivalent emissions reductions of 3 per cent per year sive consensus’. The foreword calls for a ‘new matur‐ by 2011 ‘in areas of devolved competence’; ity’ on both sides of the Labour‐Plaid political divide, • conferring official status on both English and in the spirit of compromise.